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How to evaluate 2024 compared to 2023

Marty in Albany : 5/19/2024 10:50 pm
We were 6-11 last season. Let's say we lost those games by an average of 12 points per game. (I'm guessing the exact number)

Now, (for the sake of argument) let's assume that in 2024 we will again be 6-11, but this time we lose those 11 games by an average of only 5 points per game.

Would you say that we have improved, that we have not improved since our record is the same as 2023, or that we can't tell without considering other facts and circumstances?

I am of the opinion that even though we still lose 11 games in 2024, that the Giants will have substantially improved. However, I think that many people (especially those who bet the "over" on Sports Book) would disagree with me.
I would agree  
EJNNJ : 5/19/2024 11:09 pm : link
that would be an improvement though still a half full/empty glass. The offense would likely be the side held accountable, with Lock taking over.

If we are 2-5 after the Eagles Week 7 Lock should start vs Pitt Week 8. That'd be my limit as a fan..
Losing close games.....vs losing blow our games  
George from PA : 5/19/2024 11:26 pm : link
Tells two different stories and more likely different reasons.

Blowout loses....is most likely inferior talent. Boys against men.

Close, last minute loses.....either fall on the coaches.

Unless, the coaches push all the right buttons....to keep games close.....eventhough of the talent disparity.
You can’t judge the season  
Rudy5757 : 5/19/2024 11:36 pm : link
Based on points. Last season we lost the opener 40-0, that doesn’t shouldn’t make the season look better because most people throw out the worst game.

You have to judge the season based on the situation. If we start off 5-0 and have a major injury then play poorly there is a reason for the poor play. If the team quits near the end of the season that’s a coaching issue.

If you look at our 2007 Super Bowl winning team regular season stats and compared them to any other 9-10 win team it would look unimpressive and you would probably not guess we won the Super Bowl that year. You have to see the games to make a decision if your team was a good 6-11 or a bad 6-11.
Division games  
Des51 : 5/20/2024 12:03 am : link
We will be playing different teams out of our division this year, but if we do better within our division, then that's real improvement.
OP is wrong  
giantstock : 5/20/2024 4:31 am : link
Lookign at pt idfferential is just silly.

One year the Giants won all but one game vs backup QB's. The starting QB's all got hurt duirng or couldn't play from the start. Maybe if it were the Giants Defense causing all the injuries that would matter.

But looking at pt differntial all on it's own is just looney.
......  
Route 9 : 5/20/2024 5:30 am : link
I think the 2015 Giants scored 40 more points than the 2014 Giants did. They both wound up 6-10. Both of those rosters outside of Eli, OBJ and DRC were just ... garbage.
If they make the playoffs  
Mike in Boston : 5/20/2024 6:32 am : link
They've made progress. There are no style points, whether you win or lose. 6-11 will still be 6-11.
Point differential  
3putt : 5/20/2024 8:00 am : link
Marty- isn't this like my Mark Twain's comment about the guy that drowned in a pool of water that averaged only three feet?
Last year's team was decimated by injuries  
Milton : 5/20/2024 8:02 am : link
If this year's team is mostly healthy throughout the year and finishes 7-10 or 8-9 I would consider that a step backwards.
It's quality wins,  
gridirony : 5/20/2024 8:55 am : link
not the number of wins.

Last year, the Giants beat 4 teams that each had 4 wins for the season, and they beat the Eagles, who tanked in the last game. None of those should be measured as quality wins.

And, leading by two scores, where there can't be any last second defeats, should be one of the measures of quality.
The Giants have a single 2-score win in about their last 40 games, and that was against the tanking Eagles.

In 2023, they had exactly one semi-quality win, against Green Bay.
Do or do not  
56goat : 5/20/2024 12:53 pm : link
there is no try.

There are no moral victories here, no participation trophys. We either win a bunch or games, contend for the division title, make the playoffs or we don't.
I don't get the logic of thios thread  
Bruner4329 : 5/20/2024 2:02 pm : link
We lost to the Rams by 1, the Jets in OT by 3 and Buffalo by 5. So 9 total points were the difference in 3 games. We beat the Rams by 1 if the QB does not throw the ball behind SB on the 2 point try, we beat the Jets if our PK did not get hurt and we were on the one yard line at the end of the game against Buffalo and should have won. Point differential the way you presented is meaningless. As someone said be competitive against Dallas and the Eagles and that will tell you where we are.
RE: It's quality wins,  
Bruner4329 : 5/20/2024 2:05 pm : link
In comment 16520205 gridirony said:
Quote:
not the number of wins.

Last year, the Giants beat 4 teams that each had 4 wins for the season, and they beat the Eagles, who tanked in the last game. None of those should be measured as quality wins.

And, leading by two scores, where there can't be any last second defeats, should be one of the measures of quality.
The Giants have a single 2-score win in about their last 40 games, and that was against the tanking Eagles.

In 2023, they had exactly one semi-quality win, against Green Bay.


You conveniently left out the fact that we should have beaten 2 playoff teams in Buffalo and the Rams as well as the Jets.
I agree that looking only at wins/losses is a very poor way...  
Dan in the Springs : 5/20/2024 3:20 pm : link
to evaluate a season worth of effort.

I will be trying to answer some of the following questions to help me evaluate the season.

For the OL
1. Rushing - were we able to run the ball consistently? Did we convert short yardage goal-line attempts at above the league average? How often did our runners get hit in the backfield?

2. Passing - were we able to pass protect at a league average level? In obvious passing situations, how much time did our QB's have before they had to leave their feet? How many times did the offense have to design rollouts and move the pocket to protect the passer?

Receivers/TE
1. Eye-test (from the all-22) - did you get open? How many drops, particularly in clutch situations? 50/50 balls - completed? Blocking...

QB
I'm not qualified to evaluate properly. I'll just say that I'll try to determine if their play is holding back the offense or not.

RB
Blocking? Blitz pick-up? Seeing holes and hitting them hard? Going down on first contact?

DL
Run - are we stout on the interior and hold the edge? Do we contain mobile ballcarriers? Do we push the pocket, disrupt the passer?

LB - read keys correctly and fill gaps quickly? Cover skills on assignment? Tackling? Plays made in the backfield?

DB's - is the coverage sticky (from all-22)? Run support? Keep plays in front of them? Anticipate routes and take proper angles?


Finally - quality of opponent - can units/players "win" against quality competition?

I think I can evaluate these things and will be looking at this to compare 24 to past seasons.
Yes of course things beside W/L matter a lot  
Jerry in_DC : 5/20/2024 4:26 pm : link
Let's take an extreme and unlikely example. Say Cutlets wins the job in camp. He plays really well - not just well for the Giants - but actually good by NFL standards. Say we have the 8th best offense in the league with a dynamic passing attack. The pass rush is decent, but we have some real bad holes in the secondary. The D gives up some big plays, is bad in the red zone and gives up an above average amount of points.

We go toe to toe with some top teams and lose close games on missed FGs, fumbles, special teams plays, etc. And we end up going 7-10 despite some of these developments.

That is so, so, so much better than going 7-10 (or even 9-8) the way we've been playing the last 2 years. Not only is it better to watch. It is a platform for becoming an actual good team as early as 2025.
On paper, this team is improved  
SGMen : 5/20/2024 8:55 pm : link
IMHO, last year was a disaster because we lacked talent AND because we came out of camp lame, unprepared as Daboll ran a HS camp rather then NFL. We came out of camp healthy but quickly hit a wall playing talented teams out of the gate and getting our butts handed to us. That was on the coaches.

I still believe if Thomas, Jones, Robinson and Barkley had played 17 games each we'd have had a winning record perhaps? But honestly, everyone stunk early last year and the injuries just left us flat out bad.

Consistent losing...  
Brown_Hornet : 5/20/2024 9:48 pm : link
...regardless of point diff, suggests that the team is unable to make plays, especially when confronted with a team that is making them.

Losing close games to quality opponents can suggest that the team can compete, but not closing games out over the course of a season suggests that the team is not good.
RE: Yes of course things beside W/L matter a lot  
Dan in the Springs : 5/21/2024 1:06 pm : link
In comment 16520589 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
Let's take an extreme and unlikely example. Say Cutlets wins the job in camp. He plays really well - not just well for the Giants - but actually good by NFL standards. Say we have the 8th best offense in the league with a dynamic passing attack. The pass rush is decent, but we have some real bad holes in the secondary. The D gives up some big plays, is bad in the red zone and gives up an above average amount of points.

We go toe to toe with some top teams and lose close games on missed FGs, fumbles, special teams plays, etc. And we end up going 7-10 despite some of these developments.

That is so, so, so much better than going 7-10 (or even 9-8) the way we've been playing the last 2 years. Not only is it better to watch. It is a platform for becoming an actual good team as early as 2025.


I'm curious how much your opinion would change if it is DJ who wins the job and has those results instead of TD.

Would your evaluation of the season change at all?
RE: RE: Yes of course things beside W/L matter a lot  
ChrisRick : 5/21/2024 4:29 pm : link
In comment 16521290 Dan in the Springs said:
Quote:
In comment 16520589 Jerry in_DC said:


Quote:


Let's take an extreme and unlikely example. Say Cutlets wins the job in camp. He plays really well - not just well for the Giants - but actually good by NFL standards. Say we have the 8th best offense in the league with a dynamic passing attack. The pass rush is decent, but we have some real bad holes in the secondary. The D gives up some big plays, is bad in the red zone and gives up an above average amount of points.

We go toe to toe with some top teams and lose close games on missed FGs, fumbles, special teams plays, etc. And we end up going 7-10 despite some of these developments.

That is so, so, so much better than going 7-10 (or even 9-8) the way we've been playing the last 2 years. Not only is it better to watch. It is a platform for becoming an actual good team as early as 2025.



I'm curious how much your opinion would change if it is DJ who wins the job and has those results instead of TD.

Would your evaluation of the season change at all?


Good question Dan. I am curious as well.
The bar for Jones would be higher than for DeVito  
Jerry in_DC : 5/21/2024 8:15 pm : link
given that Jones will have had 6 years of starts and 1st team reps vs 1 for Cutlets and Jones makes $40 M vs. the minimum.

So for Jones to deserve to 2025 job he'd have to put up top 10 QB #s. DeVito can be under that level and still be pretty interesting given unexplored upside and major cap value.

Given the scenario I laid out, you would keep Jones. It's just so hard to see it happening though. Because I'm not talking about Nabers taking a bunch of slants to the house. I'm talking about making throws downfield / outside the #s / with anticipation- stuff that you never see Jones do.
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