last year carolina was a disaster so Bryce Young became a punching bag. The contrast w/ CJ Stroud and Houston amplified that. ironically there was some eli/ben year 1 vibes since head to head when the 2 teams player, bryce young actually led the game winning drive not stroud.
despite the bad environment around him, if you look at Young's numbers they actually weren't so bad. 60% completions, 11 tds, 10 ints. even more so than stroud he also ran the ball more effectively than most expected (256 total yards, 7.5 per carry).
his int rate was better than league average (1.9%) so despite a bad OL, no running game, negative game scripts, and poor receivers he wasn't making mistakes. The 2 biggest negative impacts on his overall -.19 EPA per drop back were sacks and YAC. when 33yo Adam Thielen is your best WR by far im not sure how you are supposed to put up a positive YAC rating. his 2nd most targeted WR was a rookie who struggled (mingo) and his 3rd wr (chark) had his usual year - so none of his weapons underperformed their norms, they just werent good.
per pff:
he had 22 turnover worthy plays, stroud had 17
and he had 18 big time throws, stroud had 23
so in terms of individual performance there were fewer than a half dozen standout good or bad plays different between them.
for all the size concerns he only had 7 throws batted down, which was half as many as trevor lawrence (14) and the same number as bigger qbs like Stroud and Herbert. his 11 fumbles (6 lost) were high but not outrageous (stroud was 8 total and 4 lost).
in year 2 carolina has beefed up the interior OL in a big way, and added some more explosive weapons - most notably diontae johnson who is a sneaky good yac receiver. rookies xavier leggette, jonathan brooks, and jatavion sanders join mingo as some explosive athletes, and you would think 1 or 2 of them should be contributors.
ekwonu - lewis - corbett - hunt - moton left to right may be the beefiest Ol in the entire nfl. everyone except corbett is 320+.
i dont have any strong impression of dave canales either way but he comes off a lot of years coaching short qbs (russell wilson mainly) but also more recently baker mayfield's revival. i think beefing up the IOL was probably a strategically smart direction to go if they got it right.
their defense probably wont be great again but their DC is highly regarded and was in demand everywhere in the offseason (they blocked) and they did add a lot of veteran starter level players (clowney, ashawn, wonnum, jewell, fuller, hill, dane jackson, woods). having an established DC would seemingly be helpful for a first year HC.
it seems notable that last year young played his best in their closest games and worst in the games where they got boatraced:
firing a first year head coach half way through year 1 is obviously an "everything has gone wrong" season, i think there is at least the potential for the pendulum to swing the other way for them to be a lot more consistently competitive as a team in year 2 and i think a solid year (65%+, 20+ tds, < 10 ints, 200 pypg) from bryce young could be a driving factor behind that. 6 or 7 wins and that kind of solid year from bryce would be a good first season for canales to get them going in the right direction.
wow, ok...
Interesting idea. Not sure Giants could sell if to the fan base unless it was a 5th round pick/compete for the job scenario.
Could he wind up the Giants QB down the road? Certainly possible and I wouldn't mind taking a shot if Carolina wants to move on, but it is just as likely that we wind up with Dak or someone like that, as we wind up with Bryce. Low chance, but possible.
I think *ruined QBs* is an unsubstantiated truism that is easy to say but not easily proved. Highly-drafted QBs get multiple chances to succeed. Part of making it as an NFL QB is wading through adversity. What you perceive as a ruined QB, may just be, actually likely is, a QB with a smaller talent margin than other top QBs who can't pull it together and succeed.
While I think too many have prematurely shut the door on Young, I'd be hesitant to trade for him. I don't think he has the arm strength to throw in bad weather, and his size worries me. I think he's better suited to a dome/warm weather environment like his former teammate Tua.
Young played only one game that could reasonably be considered good last season. That was against a team that who allowed Tommy Devito to be the NFC Offensive Player of the Week two weeks earlier.
Adam Thielen’s best game of the season came in the only game Andy Dalton started.
Young could certainly turn it around, but I’m not sure how anyone could feel positively about it.
He was also very clutch late in games.
Maybe Young can adjust to the NFL this year. I wouldn't give up on him yet.
had the Panthers had their pick and with a new regime this year decided to start fresh, i would have been all over that.
Young played only one game that could reasonably be considered good last season. That was against a team that who allowed Tommy Devito to be the NFC Offensive Player of the Week two weeks earlier.
Adam Thielen’s best game of the season came in the only game Andy Dalton started.
Young could certainly turn it around, but I’m not sure how anyone could feel positively about it.
i think the first point about the interior pass rush is a good one, and that is why they beefed up the OL like they did. a lot of QBs have major issues when the pass rush gets there quickly up the middle, especially rookies.
his limitation of turnovers last year is what stands out most to me. darnold threw 15 picks in 13 games as a rookie. zach wilson threw 11 in almost 150 lass attempts and had a 55% comp rate. trevor lawrence threw 17. those are the closest recent top 3 picks who started right away for bad teams. kenny pickett threw 13 in 13 games though he wasnt a high pick (and he had good talent around him). fields threw 10 in 10 starts as a rookie. rosen threw 14 in 13 his rookie year at 55%.
MLFootball @_MLFootball BRYCE YOUNG MADE SOME WILD THROWS AS A ROOKIE…. His weapons were god awful, dropping some absolute dimes. 😳😳😳 - ( New Window )
If he’s still no good, why would we want him. If he’s better why would they trade him.
The evidence to support this belief is over whelming. I am talking irrefutable evidence. Guy plays like shit in point A and goes on to play well in point B. Guy plays OK or solid in point A and wins championships in point B.
The QB position is over-scouted. Too many NFL teams that scouts and EXECS work for aren't adequately prepared to support and nurture far too many young QBs. Scouts, coaches and front office types should be scouting their own mess before they stare at some QB in shorts for days and ask him 1000 stupid questions that don't prove a thing. Scout your team first and ask yourself how we can support the toughest positional player to develop in pro sports history. Gee I wonder why they fail so often.
I was today year's old when I learned that interesting fact.
I only watched a couple of Panthers games and wasn't impressed with Young at all. He missed throws, seemed to be indecisive, etc.
Rookie seasons can be meaningless. Lawrence was worse his rookie year but is a plus starter today. That Panthers team is just awful, though.
He's definitely a candidate for the Giants if they go that route and the Panthers are picking 1 overall again. I'm not sure he fits the mold of what Daboll wants - seems like they want the guy with either ++mobility or arm talent that attacks downfield. More of the yolo ball guys than game manager. They could easily be in a position where they lack options next year though.
I only watched a couple of Panthers games and wasn't impressed with Young at all. He missed throws, seemed to be indecisive, etc.
Rookie seasons can be meaningless. Lawrence was worse his rookie year but is a plus starter today. That Panthers team is just awful, though.
i think the lawrence comparison is very apt. urban meyer was arguably the bigger disaster than reich.
i think the capacity for a similar turnaround year 2 in a better environment is basically my premise here. i dont think that's the general expectation.
The upside is a Tua type profile - a guy who has good accuracy and anticipation who can really thrive in a good situation. The downside and more likely outcome to me is that he's just a backup/journeyman.
This is on the spicier side, but I think DeVito might be better than him. Young will get massively more runway because of draft status, but you watch them and I don't see where Young is better. All things subject to change, especially with young QBs but that's how I see it now.
Quote:
11 TDs and <3k yards is awful.
I only watched a couple of Panthers games and wasn't impressed with Young at all. He missed throws, seemed to be indecisive, etc.
Rookie seasons can be meaningless. Lawrence was worse his rookie year but is a plus starter today. That Panthers team is just awful, though.
i think the lawrence comparison is very apt. urban meyer was arguably the bigger disaster than reich.
i think the capacity for a similar turnaround year 2 in a better environment is basically my premise here. i dont think that's the general expectation.
Was Reich a bad coach or was the talent level really just that bad? I think the latter.
My view is you need signs of life by the end of year 2. But the supporting cast is still terrible.
The upside is a Tua type profile - a guy who has good accuracy and anticipation who can really thrive in a good situation. The downside and more likely outcome to me is that he's just a backup/journeyman.
This is on the spicier side, but I think DeVito might be better than him. Young will get massively more runway because of draft status, but you watch them and I don't see where Young is better. All things subject to change, especially with young QBs but that's how I see it now.
id take him over tua right now no second thoughts. tua wouldnt have made it 5 games in carolina last year.
Was Reich a bad coach or was the talent level really just that bad? I think the latter.
My view is you need signs of life by the end of year 2. But the supporting cast is still terrible.
i have no idea re reich. that was the biggest head coaching misfire i can ever recall, even bigger than meyer who was at least coming in with an iconic track record in college a la saban (which was only slightly less of a misfire).
and if you remember back to the hiring cycle from i believe the shurmur year, up until he got fired in IND, Reich was the guy everyone missed on and wished they'd hired.
id put the odds of hiring coaches who arent obvious disasters within 2 years at like 25% - which is why i think daboll still having as much positive sentiment as he does after 2 years is no small thing.
I only watched a couple of Panthers games and wasn't impressed with Young at all. He missed throws, seemed to be indecisive, etc.
Rookie seasons can be meaningless. Lawrence was worse his rookie year but is a plus starter today. That Panthers team is just awful, though.
DJ says hold my beer...
Tepper is a horrible, horrible owner.
Quote:
Granted, horrible team, but he looked completely overwhelmed mentally and physically. Nobody has to make a call after year 1, but if you did I would say he's not going to be good.
The upside is a Tua type profile - a guy who has good accuracy and anticipation who can really thrive in a good situation. The downside and more likely outcome to me is that he's just a backup/journeyman.
This is on the spicier side, but I think DeVito might be better than him. Young will get massively more runway because of draft status, but you watch them and I don't see where Young is better. All things subject to change, especially with young QBs but that's how I see it now.
id take him over tua right now no second thoughts. tua wouldnt have made it 5 games in carolina last year.
Whoa that might be spicier than my Cutlets ove Bryce take. I guess if you put them together, "BBI" says DeVito is better than Tua
Quote:
In comment 16522279 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
Granted, horrible team, but he looked completely overwhelmed mentally and physically. Nobody has to make a call after year 1, but if you did I would say he's not going to be good.
The upside is a Tua type profile - a guy who has good accuracy and anticipation who can really thrive in a good situation. The downside and more likely outcome to me is that he's just a backup/journeyman.
This is on the spicier side, but I think DeVito might be better than him. Young will get massively more runway because of draft status, but you watch them and I don't see where Young is better. All things subject to change, especially with young QBs but that's how I see it now.
id take him over tua right now no second thoughts. tua wouldnt have made it 5 games in carolina last year.
Whoa that might be spicier than my Cutlets ove Bryce take. I guess if you put them together, "BBI" says DeVito is better than Tua
tua at $50m is scary. I’d rather roll dice on bryce.
5'10" and 200 lbs? Slot corners are bigger.
I did not see his size being an issue. The teams struggles did wear on him as the season played out imv and it did have some impact on his performance. Great opportunity for him moving forward and those hard lessons learned can be a big positive.
He led the league in percentage of bad throws. Obviously the pass protections issues are a big factor. But he didn't fair very well with a clean pocket either.
The college player in a good way I thought he most resembled was Manziel. In a bad way his rookie campaign had a little bit of that as well.
Quote:
In comment 16522212 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Was Reich a bad coach or was the talent level really just that bad? I think the latter.
My view is you need signs of life by the end of year 2. But the supporting cast is still terrible.
Young got absolutely pummeled in the first preseason game and they did absolutely nothing to take the load off of him scheme wise or protection wise for an entire season. Coaching malpractice imho.
It is stupid to just consider times he did have time in the pocket without recognizing the skill talent he was working with or the down/distance. Panthers addition of skill players suggests they thought it was a big issue.
You don't. You evaluate when he had a clean pocket, and then how accurately he threw the ball. And you do it on the aggregate across all downs and distances to develop a comprehensive profile that is agnostic of what the target group did.
This is variable independent analysis, and it's data 101. What you're trying to determine how accurate the quarterback is when he has time across a profile of scenarios.
The you can start to project and identify the areas that need improvement independent of what the target group did/did not do.
It is in fact a low level analysis. Understanding how accurate a quarterback is when he has time, independent of what the targets did is a pretty simple.
I'd love to debate some further use cases and the applied methods you think are useful. Can you think of some cases where we should apply the traditional multivariate (linear and multiple regression) problem solving methods?
I think maybe a canonical variates analysis between games with a high accuracy rating and low accuracy rating could help avail some of the more instructive underlying factors? What do you think?
But full disclosure I was just the guy behind the guy in some big data builds. I'm just the charm.
Your basic statistical jargon is better served in a sport like tennis with much less variables around it impacting outcomes.
Your basic statistical jargon is better served in a sport like tennis with much less variables around it impacting outcomes
So I take it you disagree a conical variates analysis would be sufficient to understand the underlying variables in games where he is accurate vs. the games he was not accurate?
I'm surprised to hear that. I conferred with one of the data scientists who worked for me at my former company (sharp guy) and that's what he recommended.
Since you spend a lot of time with people who understand the complex applications of data, I'd love to hear their thoughts.