Giants should win 8 or more games

I don’t anticipate being able to beat any of the AFC North teams or the Eagles and Cowboys. The Vegas 6.5 win line needs to be treated seriously.

because it is so unpredictable with the unknown of new players on the team, injuries, fluke plays, bad calls by the officials, etc...

Nothing would shock me good or bad in any given year.

play hard and smart each week then even bad teams will beat you.

The Leonard Williams comment above was funny as well.

but I never get into "if this happens, we would have won this game." Bottom line is, the Giants got smacked in most of their losses, and some of their wins you could argue also could have been losses. They won 6 games last year, they could have won 2, they could have won 9. That's the sport.

In comment 16522847 cosmicj said:

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I don’t anticipate being able to beat any of the AFC North teams or the Eagles and Cowboys. The Vegas 6.5 win line needs to be treated seriously.

The schedule was supposedly hard last year and outside a couple, really wasn't. The NFL is mostly average outside a select number of teams. I don't buy DAL and PHI in that category right now. Philly got thumped, when trying, against this Giants team and got thumped by a mediocre Bucs squad.

I did make a thread a few weeks ago along these lines though. The talk of a 3 or 4 win season would be very bad and should cost everyone their jobs.

Should 6-11? 7-10? You could make an argument given the actions of the regime.

But, I think Vegas is right on the number. That 6.5 hasn't seen much action either side which shows the public agrees.

All things equal at this point, my guess is 7-10. Which buys everyone another year.

Sure, some losses could have been wins. There were also some wins that could have been losses. Assuming every break in every close game will go in the Giants favor isn't being realistic, it is being optimistic. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is not an unbiased analysis.

The over/under for wins is 6.5 I think. That represents the point where Vegas can get the most people on both sides of the equation. It's a consensus view. That doesn't mean it is right, but it is also a realistic view of how many see this team outside of a fan base that may know the team better, but also tend to expect more positive outcomes than unbiased observers.

It is not unrealistic to think this team can win 8-9 games if they have health and some good luck. It is also not unreasonable to see a 4-6 win team with some injuries and poor luck.

From the outside looking in I think objective observers see:

- Same quarterback with durability issues and a less accomplished back up
- Downgrade in the running game
- Upgrade is pass targets
- Moderate upgrades in the offensive line talent
- Downgrade in the defensive line
- Upgrade in the pass rush
- Downgrade in the secondary

Adjusting for average luck, why would anyone think the team is destined to be better?

But "could" is accurate. The Raiders and Broncos won 8 last year. Those teams are not good. The Saints, Colts, Jags won 9. Heck, the Jets won 7.

Could the Giants be in that mix? Sure. Could the Giants be more like the Chargers who won 5 or the Titans who won 6? Sure.

There is really no substantive difference between the teams who win 8 or 9 vs the teams who win 6 or 7. It's just injuries and high leverage plays in close games.

Seems more reasonable than *should win 8*. They failed to upgrade the most important position, while many other teams did. They seem just as likely to win 4-5 games as 8 games.

In comment 16522873 Jerry in_DC said:

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But "could" is accurate. The Raiders and Broncos won 8 last year. Those teams are not good. The Saints, Colts, Jags won 9. Heck, the Jets won 7. Could the Giants be in that mix? Sure. Could the Giants be more like the Chargers who won 5 or the Titans who won 6? Sure. There is really no substantive difference between the teams who win 8 or 9 vs the teams who win 6 or 7. It's just injuries and high leverage plays in close games.

I was going to post this exact thing. Sure, NFL = Not For Long, so stranger things have happened. If the OL and D gel quickly, and Jones plays with efficiency, they could sneak a couple of wins ala 2022. My main concern is that 2 of the most winnable games on the schedule are the first 2. If they don’t gel quickly they could be 0-2 heading into a good Cleveland team.

In comment 16522866 christian said:

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From the outside looking in I think objective observers see: - Same quarterback with durability issues and a less accomplished back up - Downgrade in the running game - Upgrade is pass targets - Moderate upgrades in the offensive line talent - Downgrade in the defensive line - Upgrade in the pass rush - Downgrade in the secondary Adjusting for average luck, why would anyone think the team is destined to be better?

FWIW:
- Same quarterback with durability issues and a less accomplished back up
*** Wash - if healthy, Jones is an upgrade to Jones. I like TT but Lock is an upgrade just staying healthy

- Downgrade in the running game
*** you double dipped here - RB is separate from QB. On paper Barkley is better, agree. In reality he did not play that well last year - dropped passes, less speed. In this offense, Tracey may be an upgrade in passing game. But I will agree on paper.


- Upgrade is pass targets
***agree

- Moderate upgrades in the offensive line talent
*** agree, but upgrade at OL coach likely huge. I really believe Johnson did a horrible job. Players seemed to get worse under him

- Downgrade in the defensive line
*** disagree - at worst a wash (are you including LW) I think Riley improves.

- Upgrade in the pass rush
*** agree

- Downgrade in the secondary
*** TBD - Banks, Pinnock and Belton more experience . Nubin TBD. Not sure Adoree was that good, seemed to be mailing it in so CB2 may not be degraded. Phillips TBD at Slot. Flott TBD at CB2

5

Falcons
Wash at home
Panthers overseas
Steal one of the others
Eagirls last game with starters resting


I don't see any more wins there with the abysmal way they've played recently. I'd happily be wrong though.

For the record, I am terrible at picking game outcomes weekly.

If this team stays healthy and doesn't win 8 games, we've got the wrong leadership in place. It's time to show something.

Anyone who is expecting this team to be years away, or a bottom-dweller, is missing the boat. Expectations should be a decent team on the upswing.

In comment 16522886 MattinKY said:

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5 Falcons Wash at home Panthers overseas Steal one of the others Eagirls last game with starters resting I don't see any more wins there with the abysmal way they've played recently. I'd happily be wrong though. For the record, I am terrible at picking game outcomes weekly.

You keep saying the abysmal way they played. I called you out on this yesterday. The 23 season never got off the ground due to injuries. Unless you're expecting a massive run of injuries to guys we can't afford to lose, I don't see how last year has much relevance.

If the OL holds up we should be battling for a playoff spot

In comment 16522885 section125 said:

Quote:

- Same quarterback with durability issues and a less accomplished back up *** Wash - if healthy, Jones is an upgrade to Jones. I like TT but Lock is an upgrade just staying healthy - Downgrade in the running game *** you double dipped here - RB is separate from QB. On paper Barkley is better, agree. In reality he did not play that well last year - dropped passes, less speed. In this offense, Tracey may be an upgrade in passing game. But I will agree on paper. - Upgrade is pass targets ***agree - Moderate upgrades in the offensive line talent *** agree, but upgrade at OL coach likely huge. I really believe Johnson did a horrible job. Players seemed to get worse under him - Downgrade in the defensive line *** disagree - at worst a wash (are you including LW) I think Riley improves. - Upgrade in the pass rush *** agree - Downgrade in the secondary *** TBD - Banks, Pinnock and Belton more experience . Nubin TBD. Not sure Adoree was that good, seemed to be mailing it in so CB2 may not be degraded. Phillips TBD at Slot. Flott TBD at CB2

RE: the run game, Jones is coming off the torn ACL, Lock has markedly less run ability than Taylor, and even a diminished Barkley is a better running back than Singletary.

RE: DL, Robinson and Williams logged 875 snaps for the Giants last year. I don't think you can say with a straight face Riley and Phillips are a wash for those 875 snaps.

RE: Secondary, I also don't think you can say with a straight face any of the young players will walk into McKinney's role and equal his production.

In comment 16522881 Section331 said:

Quote:

In comment 16522873 Jerry in_DC said: Quote: But "could" is accurate. The Raiders and Broncos won 8 last year. Those teams are not good. The Saints, Colts, Jags won 9. Heck, the Jets won 7. Could the Giants be in that mix? Sure. Could the Giants be more like the Chargers who won 5 or the Titans who won 6? Sure. There is really no substantive difference between the teams who win 8 or 9 vs the teams who win 6 or 7. It's just injuries and high leverage plays in close games. I was going to post this exact thing. Sure, NFL = Not For Long, so stranger things have happened. If the OL and D gel quickly, and Jones plays with efficiency, they could sneak a couple of wins ala 2022. My main concern is that 2 of the most winnable games on the schedule are the first 2. If they don’t gel quickly they could be 0-2 heading into a good Cleveland team.

Yeah it seems like football does something weird to people where lot of fans do not understand the randomness of close game

In baseball, people are never like - well the Mets won 73 games, but they had 20 1-run losses. If we won 15 of them we'd make the wild card easily. Remember we had 2nd and 3rd in the 9th against the Pirates in June and Alonso hit one real hard right at the 3rd baseman....

I agree 100%

and the Giants put it all together and make it back to the playoffs with a 9 or 10 win season.

IMO here's a list of things that need to "click":

- DJ plays somewhat consistently for the entire season
- DJ stays healthy for the entire season
- Drew Lock rejuvenates his career in Blue
- the OL gels quickly and plays at least consistently average after a decade of futility
- AT stays healthy the entire season
- Evan Neal improves to at least mediocre
- JMS improves to at least mediocre
- some of the OL FAs bring some level of consistency to the OL
- the new set of RBs can replace the best, most explosive offensive player the Giants have had the last 5 years
- Nabers, as a rookie WR, is the real deal - as in close to Pro-Bowl caliber
- Waller - I don't even know what to type about him at this point
- someone in the TE group can block consistently this year
- WDR stays healthy the entire season and continues to develop as a threat underneath
- they get some production from a WR #2 be it Slayton or Hodgins or someone else
- when called upon, the offensive depth steps up and outperforms expectations

I'm too tired from typing to do defense.

I think the exercise really comes down to what are the odds the many things that went wrong last year go right this year?

What separates the consistently good teams from those that rise and fall with the tides of luck -- is often some combination of a very good and durable quarterback, a great head coach, or outstanding depth.

I'm not sure the Giants have any of those three things. So I guess it's down to hoping for luck.

But if you trust Daboll and Schoen, with the usual health caveats, this should be a winning team. Depending on who gets hurt, the only known glaring hole is DL depth.

By opening day the stench of last season will be gone and the team will be completely different. It has to be - - no Barkley and no Wink, plus a new high-impact player on each side of the ball. I also think people are sleeping on WDR and Hyatt and just how explosive our WRs can be, and Singletary is a better fit for what we need now than Barkley. STs addressed in advance. Enough experienced and flexible OL depth that the line should be functional in any circumstance.

I expect the opening day media narrative will be maybe the Giants don't suck after all.

You don't see anyone saying the Giants could go 14-3.

when the Giants take the field, will they not be a severe disadvantage at QB?

That's your answer to the win prediction.

In comment 16522901 christian said:

Quote:

I think the exercise really comes down to what are the odds the many things that went wrong last year go right this year? What separates the consistently good teams from those that rise and fall with the tides of luck -- is often some combination of a very good and durable quarterback, a great head coach, or outstanding depth. I'm not sure the Giants have any of those three things. So I guess it's down to hoping for luck.

Terrific post here. Well stated.

In comment 16522901 christian said:

Quote:

I think the exercise really comes down to what are the odds the many things that went wrong last year go right this year? What separates the consistently good teams from those that rise and fall with the tides of luck -- is often some combination of a very good and durable quarterback, a great head coach, or outstanding depth. I'm not sure the Giants have any of those three things. So I guess it's down to hoping for luck.

I’m certainly not going to argue that Daboll is a great HC, but I think he is a very good one. I think too many of us overlook the job he did last year. Getting 6 wins while playing a UDFA rookie QB for 6 starts, with all of those injuries, is nothing short of miraculous. And he was COTY the year prior.

if a lot of things go right for them.

I do have continuing concerns with them being able to build a high quality running game (with the RB's) and stopping the run on D. If they have both addressed they can have a good season with better health.

In comment 16522909 Go Terps said:

Quote:

You don't see anyone saying the Giants could go 14-3.

Yeah - find me what team is predicted to win 14 games.

Best Chances - Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers...and in AFCN I think 11 or 12 wins that division..

DJ while not great can be "good" enough if given protection or Lock can for that matter. Either of them can get us to 8+ wins with a competent OL. 10+ if the OL really comes together and surprises(not betting on that). Any reasonable uptick from last years OL DEBACLE should get us to 8+ wins though.

At the least. There is some high end talent. It all comes down to QB and OL.

If the OL can give Jones time, and he can be the guy we saw vs Minnesota in 2022 or AZ last year, then they’ll be able to score some points. Especially with all the speed and YaC ability at WR.

Defensively, I think they’ll be top half of the league. Front 7 is good. Have top level talent in Dex, Burns, Okereke + young guys who I think will become high level starters in KT, Banks, and Nubin. Solid starters like Pinnock, McFadden + strong rotational / sub package pieces like Simmons, Ojulari, and Jordan Phillips. CB group and IDL depth have some questions which could burn them, or could take their ceiling even higher…we’ll see.

Right now I think they are a 7 or 8 win team.

In comment 16522967 EJNNJ said:

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DJ while not great can be "good" enough if given protection or Lock can for that matter. Either of them can get us to 8+ wins with a competent OL. 10+ if the OL really comes together and surprises(not betting on that). Any reasonable uptick from last years OL DEBACLE should get us to 8+ wins though.

While I certainly agree about the oline, and their importance cannot be overstated, I think 8-9 is possible but certainly not probable.

curious to see why we cant replace McKinney's production? Take out the meaning less game against the eagles. The guy has 1 INT and 1.5 sacks over a 25 game time period between 2022 and 2023.

Thats not very hard to replace. And lets not act like he was some awesome run defender either. He made some tackles. But so did Love and other players from our past.

In comment 16522955 section125 said:

Quote:

In comment 16522909 Go Terps said: Quote: You don't see anyone saying the Giants could go 14-3. Yeah - find me what team is predicted to win 14 games. Best Chances - Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers...and in AFCN I think 11 or 12 wins that division..

Why even bother with him? Just a blowhard at this point.

They have a QB in his 6th year with the 6th highest cap hit at the position in 2024.

They drafted an elite WR talent, and took steps to upgrade both the offensive and defensive lines.

Their coach and GM are in their third season.

Point blank go win some damn games already.

For the record, I have no expectation that they will do this, but that SHOULD be the expectation.

In comment 16522989 JT039 said:

Quote:

In comment 16522955 section125 said: Quote: In comment 16522909 Go Terps said: Quote: You don't see anyone saying the Giants could go 14-3. Yeah - find me what team is predicted to win 14 games. Best Chances - Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers...and in AFCN I think 11 or 12 wins that division.. Why even bother with him? Just a blowhard at this point.

Terps has good ideas if you read past the Jones issues.

In comment 16522899 Dnew15 said:

Quote:

and the Giants put it all together and make it back to the playoffs with a 9 or 10 win season. IMO here's a list of things that need to "click" - AT stays healthy the entire season - Evan Neal improves to at least mediocre - JMS improves to at least mediocre - some of the OL FAs bring some level of consistency to the OL - the new set of RBs can replace the best, most explosive offensive player the Giants have had the last 5 years - Nabers, as a rookie WR, is the real deal - as in close to Pro-Bowl caliber - someone in the TE group can block consistently this year - WDR stays healthy the entire season and continues to develop as a threat underneath - they get some production from a WR #2 be it Slayton or Hodgins.

I will comment on some of these great points you made….
1. Pray Andrew Thomas doesn’t miss one game
2. Man hertz and Stoll are two TEs we picked in FA. They both are beasts at blocking. We are good here.
3. Nabers will make everyone here glad we selected him over that QB from Michigan.
4. WDR showed us why we were smart to move up to pick him in the draft. Love him
5. Slayton will be there but don’t forget Hyatt too. Watch for a UDFA named Jiles….he might be the real deal. Unbelievable length and catch point.
6. Singletarry+Tracy> Saquon
7. As for Neal and JMS improving….let us pray again….but we seem to have very capable backups in place should they falter- Schlottmann and Eluemunor.

In comment 16522988 JT039 said:

Quote:

curious to see why we cant replace McKinney's production? Take out the meaning less game against the eagles. The guy has 1 INT and 1.5 sacks over a 25 game time period between 2022 and 2023. Thats not very hard to replace. And lets not act like he was some awesome run defender either. He made some tackles. But so did Love and other players from our past.

These are some popular measurements shared around the time of UFA.

2023

PPF 91.2 coverage grade (1st)
PFF 89.1 tackling grade (4th)
PFF 87.8 overall grade (4th)
53 passer rating when targeted
3 INTs
116 tackles
11 PBUs
100% of snaps played (1128)

If the injuries to starters are where we are thin that will destroy us. We could win 10 games if our starters all stay healthy, but that ain't gonna happen.

I think the defense is especially thin. We will problably carry two guys on defense, LB Oujulari and CB Robinson, who are walking injuries, so we will be starting out in the hole on defense.

When you are bad, you have a high turnover rate. The result is that the reserve players, even if a vets, will probably not have a lot of experience with the team or with the new defensive scheme. Regardless of a player's talent, inexperience will result in lots of mistakes and generally poor play.

6.5 wins looks about right.

In my opinion the O line play was abysmal.

I believe it can improve, but can it improve enough to get beyond 5 wins?

I'm not a football expert so I can't speak to that with any substance.

As a fan, I'd hope so. I also would be happy to see Jones play as well as he has at his best. That could most certainly earn a few more wins, but better football minds than mine don't seem to predict that.

As stated I'd be happy to be proven wrong.


In comment 16522890 mittenedman said:

Quote:

You keep saying the abysmal way they played. I called you out on this yesterday. The 23 season never got off the ground due to injuries. Unless you're expecting a massive run of injuries to guys we can't afford to lose, I don't see how last year has much relevance.

In comment 16522995 rsjem1979 said:

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They have a QB in his 6th year with the 6th highest cap hit at the position in 2024. They drafted an elite WR talent, and took steps to upgrade both the offensive and defensive lines. Their coach and GM are in their third season. Point blank go win some damn games already. For the record, I have no expectation that they will do this, but that SHOULD be the expectation.

Agree. If the offense can't perform this year, it is fair to ask Schoen and Daboll what they need to succeed that they have not been given. This is their team, with their selected franchise QB. There is only so long you keep getting credit for winning in year 1 with the roster you inherited.

In comment 16522908 HBart said:

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But if you trust Daboll and Schoen, with the usual health caveats, this should be a winning team. Depending on who gets hurt, the only known glaring hole is DL depth. By opening day the stench of last season will be gone and the team will be completely different. It has to be - - no Barkley and no Wink, plus a new high-impact player on each side of the ball. I also think people are sleeping on WDR and Hyatt and just how explosive our WRs can be, and Singletary is a better fit for what we need now than Barkley. STs addressed in advance. Enough experienced and flexible OL depth that the line should be functional in any circumstance. I expect the opening day media narrative will be maybe the Giants don't suck after all.

I like your logic here. I especially agree Singletary+Tracy will make us forget that kids name from Penn State. I have such a good feeling about Tracy…I think many here don’t know him well enough…but he will soon win them over.

As for OL, I know Neal “has to get first crack at RT” because of his draft status, but Eluemunor graded out well enough last year, so I feel pretty confident that he will replace Neal if the latter is struggling again.

doesn't matter to me, I just want them to beat Philadelphia and Dallas. Those two teams have killed the Giants in the past decade and I want. to finally see the Giants with a winning record in the NFCE games!

"So we should win more games next year."

Here's the problem with that argument: every team feels they got better this time of year.

And some, if not most, actually did, and a few will be significantly better.

The Commanders got Jayden Daniels, who is a nightmare to defend. One of the most not-talked-about-enough aspects of the coming season is that Daniels is going to transform that team and that the Giants are now probably behind the Commanders.

But forget the fact that Daniels is going to step into the league and be one of the most dangerous QBs as a runner in the NFL on day 1, but what ehe can do with McLaurin, Dotson, Ben Sinnott, and Luke McCaffrey... that's a dangerous, not to mention Austin Ekeler and Zack Ertz, I think the Commanders have not just moved ahead of the Giants but Dallas as well.

Underestimate Daniels and his impact at your own peril.

In comment 16522955 section125 said:

Quote:

In comment 16522909 Go Terps said: Quote: You don't see anyone saying the Giants could go 14-3. Yeah - find me what team is predicted to win 14 games. Best Chances - Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers...and in AFCN I think 11 or 12 wins that division..

Fine - I don't see anyone saying they can win 12 games.

The expectation should be 10 wins, minimum.

In comment 16523025 allstarjim said:

Quote:

"So we should win more games next year." Here's the problem with that argument: every team feels they got better this time of year. And some, if not most, actually did, and a few will be significantly better. The Commanders got Jayden Daniels, who is a nightmare to defend. One of the most not-talked-about-enough aspects of the coming season is that Daniels is going to transform that team and that the Giants are now probably behind the Commanders. But forget the fact that Daniels is going to step into the league and be one of the most dangerous QBs as a runner in the NFL on day 1, but what ehe can do with McLaurin, Dotson, Ben Sinnott, and Luke McCaffrey... that's a dangerous, not to mention Austin Ekeler and Zack Ertz, I think the Commanders have not just moved ahead of the Giants but Dallas as well. Underestimate Daniels and his impact at your own peril.

Daniels will not have the extreme advantage at WR he had at LSU over almost all teams. I think you are vastly overrating the Commanders WRs. I think the Giants now have better receivers.
Yes Daniels can run. That will be abig upgrade for them. But let's not put JD on the Pro Bowl Team yet.

optimism many have here in the offseason. As posted above, every team thinks they are better this year than last. Some will be right and some will be wrong. The Giants getting better immediately equating to more wins means the rest of the league all stayed flat, which is an inaccurate assumption.

Jayden Daniels may struggle in year one, or he may have a breakout rookie season like Stroud did. The Commanders and their fans certainly believe they got better and might even be counting two wins against the Giants this year. It's fair to be optimistic but that is not a straight line because the Giants may have also gotten better.

What I am seeing that seems a bit much is the talk about Tracy. There are a lot of very high expectations some of you seem to have for a 5th round RB. I hope they are true, but expecting much from a 5th round player in his rookie year seems a little over the top.

In comment 16523045 Mike from Ohio said:

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optimism many have here in the offseason. As posted above, every team thinks they are better this year than last. Some will be right and some will be wrong. The Giants getting better immediately equating to more wins means the rest of the league all stayed flat, which is an inaccurate assumption. Jayden Daniels may struggle in year one, or he may have a breakout rookie season like Stroud did. The Commanders and their fans certainly believe they got better and might even be counting two wins against the Giants this year. It's fair to be optimistic but that is not a straight line because the Giants may have also gotten better. What I am seeing that seems a bit much is the talk about Tracy. There are a lot of very high expectations some of you seem to have for a 5th round RB. I hope they are true, but expecting much from a 5th round player in his rookie year seems a little over the top.

I think, based on what I’ve read, that 5th round is misleading. He only played RB for one year and he is an older player coming out- 25. I think both of these factored in him being a lower draft pick. I couldn’t care less that he is 25. I will be happy if he only plays for his 5 year rookie contract, much like Saquon……especially if he plays like his potential shows.

Totally respect anyone who wants to throw themselves against the same brick wall but I'll stay in my "negativity" until there's a reason not to be.

So tired of 5 months of foolish optimism only to be doing mock drafts early October but if that's your thing then by all means have at it.

in 2022 the team o/u was 7 wins, they got 9.
in 2023 the team o/u was 7.5 wins, they got 6.

their 2 year o/u was 14.5.
their 2 year win total was 15.

one year they got all the breaks, one year all the breaks went against them.

in 2024 the natural progression of this team should be something like 8+ wins. it is year 3, the coaching staff and FO should be another year more experienced and had another full draft class to add to the talent base. they were able to spend more money on the team this year, not less. the schedule is easier than 2023 though not as easy as 2022.

as the thread implies, the amount of regression mainstream regression being baked is irrational. It is fear combined with recency bias (plus some longer term bias that should have no bearing on this regime).

Keep the first 2 seasons outcomes exactly the same but reverse them chronologically and this team's O/U would be right around HOU (9.5), GB (9.5), JAX (8.5), IND (8.5).