What Has a Coach Needed to Do in Year 3 to get Year 4?

Without checking its more likely that's a 3 with a typo.

In comment 16524521 j_rud said:

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Without checking its more likely that's a 3 with a typo.

Yup, 3 not 13. I'll check the formula and see what that does to the numbers. Good catch.

barring a Joe Judge style meltdown. It's easy to forget that they were prepared to go to year 3 w/ Judge so while there may not be a recent precedent for patience I do believe there is a desire to be.

Just my 2 cents, Daboll is a good coach that got caught up in the pressure of unexpected success and, likely more important, the roster decisions that engendered.

I do like him a hell of a lot better than the other coaches since TC

this out along the lines of “better make the playoffs EVERY year, no excuses, or your done.
The very definition of “instant gratification”. Salary caps, rosters, massive injuries. None are legit excuses.
Just wave the magic Harry Potter wand and you’re good to go! Pfft.

This team has been just flat out non competitive in far, far too many games. I want to see them in every game until the end of the game. That would show progress in term of personnel and that the coach has them playing hard for all 60 minutes. Let the chips fall where they may. I want to see football not some imitation of it.

Without a minimum of 7 wins in year 3. I think for Daboll, he has to get at least that (barring any unforeseen circumstances). It is hard to picture a coach with 9-6-6 getting a fourth year.

he is currently -2.5 under .500 so 9-10 wins gets him at/above .500 (he will obviously be back).

at 7-8 wins i think things get murky and anything lower it gets hard to justify with guys like vrabel and belichick out there. i mean look at vrabel's record in tennessee.

if you told me we could win a minimum of 9, 9, 11, 12 in the next 4 years in whatever order im not sure what id pay for that, but it's more than $1k.

Much is dependent, IMO, on things the casual fan is not privy to.
How is the HC relationship with players, or subordinate coaches?
What is the talent level of the team, and is the HC getting the most out of it (OK, this one a fan should be able to get a grip on). How good a motivator is the HC?
I'm a firm believer that the HC gets input on player acquisition, and coaching staff. Has the HC been more right than wrong on his input, even if his voice didn't carry the day?

Things like injury, or strength of schedule, will factor in.

In 2023, injury played a big part in the L column being so large. At the same time, the team did not look ready for prime time when the season started. The OL had a mix of injury and miscalculation on player selection. If Daboll was a big part of the miscalculation, that's a big negative. Same with DJ, if he continues to regress.

Overall, I think a sense that the coach having the team motivated and moving in the right direction, is more important than the W-L record. But, the record can't be shit, either.

I'd believe it wasn't about wins, if there were a bunch of outliers. But it seems like loosely unless you fall apart, you're likely to get 3 years. And unless you've had 2 good years in your first 3, you get fired.

In comment 16524594 christian said:

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I'd believe it wasn't about wins, if there were a bunch of outliers. But it seems like loosely unless you fall apart, you're likely to get 3 years. And unless you've had 2 good years in your first 3, you get fired.

i wouldn't say likely to get 3 years, almost half of that list qualify for fell apart within 2 years, a few of them got 3rd years wrongfully (proven by the fact that they got fired quickly in year 3 like rhule, patricia).

so as many only got 2 full years as got to 4 years. and way many more got fired at the 2 year mark than are still going at 4+ (4).

the sample above is basically:

50% chance they will be fired within 2 years
85% chance they will be fired within 4 years
15% chance they will go beyond 4 years

i think that's pretty true. i think there's actually accomplishment in the fact that daboll is already a top 50% hire. we saw firsthand 3x in a row how easy it is to end up below that.

Yeah, looking at those percentages, likely isn't the right description.

Slight tangent, but the number of falls on their face is surprising to see on paper.

that 8 or 9 wins will do it for Daboll.

of wins per year after hire is all that weighted on a retain/fire decision. Just look at Ben McAdoo here. Playoffs first year, then an in season dismissal. So much of player selection, contracts, cap ramifications etc. have just as much to do with it if not more. In McAdoo's second season and even the playoff performance the year prior doomed him. Ill fitting suits didn't help either.

The Giants owner expressly said the reason he fired the next guy was too few wins.

...if the coach seemed to have lost the locker room and the respect of the players. The players seem to like Dabs but Macadoo and Judge in year two, not so much when things got tough

Does Daboll get penalized for his coach of the year performance in 2022? His success caused Mara/Schoen to "accelerate the process" - is it fair to now judge this as a true year 3?

2022 fucked up the timeline. It's the point I made in the Bears thread. The Bears are having the more linear progression. 2022 wasn't supposed to happen.

Since we're quoting Edna my favorite is "I never look back! It distracts from the now." Some folks here might want to think about that!

In comment 16524609 Sean said:

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Does Daboll get penalized for his coach of the year performance in 2022? His success caused Mara/Schoen to "accelerate the process" - is it fair to now judge this as a true year 3?

They inherited a lot of players they've rewarded, and turned the roster over. But cornerstones of the team have largely been with them since day one. I think it's prove it time for Daboll.

The fact that playoff wins are not being counted as wins in the compilation. It would seem that they are at least as important as regular season wins, if not more so.

Of course, it really doesn't matter in the scope of this discussion. Owners / GMs know who has won a playoff game for them.

In early/meaningful games with Dallas and Philly……no more 40-0 blowouts is a must….one more cream puff start and BD could be in jeopardy of joining the loser parade.

In comment 16524614 christian said:

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In comment 16524609 Sean said: Quote: Does Daboll get penalized for his coach of the year performance in 2022? His success caused Mara/Schoen to "accelerate the process" - is it fair to now judge this as a true year 3? They inherited a lot of players they've rewarded, and turned the roster over. But cornerstones of the team have largely been with them since day one. I think it's prove it time for Daboll.

I’m not sure what it is you mean in the last paragraph. I think Daboll inherited a piece of crap roster and took that team to a playoff win on the road. No easy task and, in my opinion, it was mainly because of the coaching. I would agree that last year, the club was not well prepared to start the season and that was before the crippling injuries. I’m expecting Daboll to improve in that area. As an aside, they did beat the Eagles in a gane that was very important to the Eagles playoff position; in fact, they beat the Eagles badly.

Why don't we just see how the season plays out before we fire the coach?

In comment 16524634 Snorkels said:

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Why don't we just see how the season plays out before we fire the coach?

You're not only boring. You're seeing ghosts. Who wants to fire the coach?

In comment 16524632 Samiam said:

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In comment 16524614 christian said: Quote: In comment 16524609 Sean said: Quote: Does Daboll get penalized for his coach of the year performance in 2022? His success caused Mara/Schoen to "accelerate the process" - is it fair to now judge this as a true year 3? They inherited a lot of players they've rewarded, and turned the roster over. But cornerstones of the team have largely been with them since day one. I think it's prove it time for Daboll. I’m not sure what it is you mean in the last paragraph. I think Daboll inherited a piece of crap roster and took that team to a playoff win on the road.

They gave 350M to Thomas, Lawrence, and Jones. Add in Burns, and these are the cornerstone players on the team. They inherited three of them.

In comment 16524603 SomeFan said:

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that 8 or 9 wins will do it for Daboll.

Good thread.

And I think you're correct with 8/9 wins with respect to Daboll. Though it will be interesting to see, if the QB position falls apart again and the win total is under that, what happens.

In comment 16524634 Snorkels said:

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Why don't we just see how the season plays out before we fire the coach?

Simple question, did you ever notice your posts aren't any good in a lot of threads?

In comment 16524608 jnoble said:

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...if the coach seemed to have lost the locker room and the respect of the players. The players seem to like Dabs but Macadoo and Judge in year two, not so much when things got tough

It isn't only 'lost the locker room', which is often difficult to pinpoint, although Mac and (especially) Judge are shining examples. There's a gray area where the players haven't quit, but they also aren't responding to the coach. Sometimes it isn't purely talent level, but a sense of whether the coach is getting the most out of the talent available. That's a judgement call. Year one, Dabs did marvelous, but year two is a bit of muddy water.

In comment 16524634 Snorkels said:

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Why don't we just see how the season plays out before we fire the coach?

And there it is. "Cancel all discussion!"

In comment 16524719 Scooter185 said:

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Why don't we just see how the season plays out before we fire the coach? And there it is. "Cancel all discussion!"

Out of respect for the game, we should stop discussing football. It's the right thing to do.

In comment 16524720 christian said:

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In comment 16524719 Scooter185 said: Quote: Why don't we just see how the season plays out before we fire the coach? And there it is. "Cancel all discussion!" Out of respect for the game, we should stop discussing football. It's the right thing to do.

I remember when I kept bringing up how to handle Jones & Barkley during the success of 2022, a common response was, "let it play out." Well, here we are. These things should be discussed.

Year in order to get a fourth year.

I think wins are a good proxy for all the intangible stuff. If the Giants have win 6 games next year with a healthy Jones, I doubt the story is how great the locker room is.

I think it's rather simple: win. & I'd add...be calmer on the sidelines. I-for one-could GAF about his demeanor on the sideline-we once had Parcells & TC as head coaches-but I there is a growing narrative that Dabs is some out of control lunatic & I could see Mara being sensitive to that perception.

Or, put it this way... is 4 yrs a common length?

Teams typically don't like HC coaching on a lame duck year, although that may just be my perception after the Reeves experience. A 3rd year that was meh would make a team hesitant to hand out an extension, so a 4 yr contract would be a factor in letting a HC go over a 5, or more, yr contract.

It's year 3, just go win some games. Time to start seeing that we're building a winner here.

will be a big name in 2025 to watch.

In comment 16524558 Dave on the UWS said:

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this out along the lines of “better make the playoffs EVERY year, no excuses, or your done. The very definition of “instant gratification”. Salary caps, rosters, massive injuries. None are legit excuses. Just wave the magic Harry Potter wand and you’re good to go! Pfft.

Are you confusing an observation with a mandate?