DSL Season begins on Monday, some bookkeeping
06/01/24 RHP Johan Moreno assigned to DSL Mets Blue.
06/01/24 RHP Leyvi Rodriguez assigned to DSL Mets Blue.
06/01/24 LHP Wilmer Lugo assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 RHP Deivy Victora assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 LHP Darling Felix assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 RHP Luisner Lopez assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 RHP Jermayne Verdu assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 RHP Deivy Victora assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 LHP Wilmer Lugo assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 LHP Darling Felix assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 RHP Luisner Lopez assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
06/01/24 RHP Jermayne Verdu assigned to DSL Mets Blue from DSL Mets Orange.
AAA
Choi granted his release
Acuna 1-3, BB
Ritter 0-3 BB, 3 k's
Bannon 2-4
Thomas 1-4
Hamel 5 innings 5 hits 2 runs 3 walks 3 k's (Awful era and too many walks but I still believe he's a big league arm, likely a RP)
Drew Smith (rehab) 1 perfect
Bing
Rudick 1-4
Parada 0-4
McLean 2-4, HR, 2b
Clifford 0-3,BB, 3 k's (He's been very disappointing, no two ways about it)
Stuart 5 innings 7 hits 3 runs 2 walks 6 k's (another likely big leaguer but RPer)
McLoughlin 1.2 innings 2 walks (1.15 era on the season)
Gervase 0.2 innings 2 hits 4 runs 3 walks 2 k's (yuck)
BK
Morabito 0-4, 3 k's
Lorusso 0-3, BB, SB, 2 k's (should be in Bing)
Suero 1-4, 2 k's
Orellana 2.1 innings 4 hits 2 runs 1 walk 1 k (first poor outing of the season)
Julian Smith *organizational debut* 0.2 perfect
St.Lucie
Baro 3-5, 2b, K
Baez 0-4, 2 k's
Hernandez 1-4
Houck 1-4, 2b, K (awful first 2 months)
Rosa 0-4, 2 k's
Fanas 1-3, BB
Gomez 5 innings 7 hits 2 runs 3 walks 4 k's (One to watch)
Ammons 1 inning 1 hit 0 runs 0 walks 2 k's
FCL
J-Rod 2-6, BB, K, 2 CS
Ewing 2-4, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 k's (1.008 OPS on the season)
Zitella 3-5, 2 2B, 2 k's (Hitting .349)
Juan 4-4, HR, 2 BB (monster game came into the game 2 for his last 33, talk about a slump buster)
Cota 4 innings 2 hits 2 runs 1 walk 9 k's
@JohnFromAlbany
This Week's @BKCyclones
Pitching Rotation: Tonight's Game: Vs. Jersey Shore (Phi) 7:00 p.m, Felipe De La Cruz (3-5,4.00)
Wednesday, June 19 RHP Jonathan Pintaro (0-1, 4.00) 7:00 p.m.
Thursday, June 20 RHP Jonah Tong (1-1, 4. 26) 7:00 p.m.
Friday, June 21 RHP Kade Morris (1-1, 5.32) 7:00 p.m.
Saturday, June 22 RHP Dakota Hawkins (2-1, 3.32) 6:00 p.m.
@JohnFromAlbany
This week's @RumblePoniesBB
pitching rotation:
Tonight @ Akron (CLE) 6:35 PM RHP Tyler Stuart (1-5, 5.02 ERA)
Wed, June 19 6:35 PM RHP Joander Suarez (3-4, 4.76 ERA)
Thu, June 20 6:35 PM RHP Brandon Sproat (1-0, 1.52 ERA)
Fri, June 21 7:05 PM RHP Nolan McLean (0-3, 5.64 ERA)
Sat, June 22 7:05 PM RHP Luis Moreno (1-1, 4.33 ERA)
Sun, June 23 1:05 PM RHP Tyler Stuart (1-5, 5.02 ERA)
55m
posted it in the texas game thread, he has 10 starts, 57 innings, so he could go another 14 starts and still fall just short. with the injury, seems very unlikely he gets there.
Link - ( New Window )
Juan projects to be a physical center fielder who sticks out for his tools. He has impressive bat speed for his age, driving the ball with impact during batting practice with the potential for plus raw power once he's physically mature.
that kind of sounds like upside to be similar to this older version of Marte without plus speed. a solid all around corner OF bat.
As good as Simon Juan has been this month (and he has) he too suffers from "Mets hitter disease" with a whopping 52% GB% (18th highest/78 qualified hitters)
Juan projects to be a physical center fielder who sticks out for his tools. He has impressive bat speed for his age, driving the ball with impact during batting practice with the potential for plus raw power once he's physically mature and viewed more as a RFer vs. CF at this point. No arguing he's having an outstanding month and he's only 18 but you don't see any of the Law, BP's, BA's, fangraphs really talking about him and when it comes to that level of the minors (and bonus) that's a concern.
that kind of sounds like upside to be similar to this older version of Marte without plus speed. a solid all around corner OF bat.
TBH, none of the prospect writers I've spoken to in the past seemed overly enamored with Juan (at least in comparison to other big bonus IFA's). He's already slowed down to the point he's at best an average runner going forward
How? I feel like I was ascending athletically into my late 20's/early 30's before hitting the wall.
How? I feel like I was ascending athletically into my late 20's/early 30's before hitting the wall.
He's stolen 3 bases over the past 2 seasons going 3/6. His first professional season he stole 16 bases (17 attempts) in 53 games played. He's hit 1 triple over the past 2 seasons.
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down at 18? lol.
How? I feel like I was ascending athletically into my late 20's/early 30's before hitting the wall.
He's stolen 3 bases over the past 2 seasons going 3/6. His first professional season he stole 16 bases (17 attempts) in 53 games played. He's hit 1 triple over the past 2 seasons.
From 2 years ago (which mentions the risk)
" Juan has at least a plus arm that could still tick up, with the athleticism to handle center field for now, though there's a chance he outgrows the position and heads to right field. "
Running/speed is no longer part of his game
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Simon Juan came into today with a 1.031 OPS in June, and with his first inning double has 8 extra base hits this month (41 ab's). J-Rod came into today with a .420 OPS this month. Worth remembering he'll only turn 18 in 2 weeks (1 year younger than Juan) #Mets
As good as Simon Juan has been this month (and he has) he too suffers from "Mets hitter disease" with a whopping 52% GB% (18th highest/78 qualified hitters)
im not as convinced GB% is as big of a negative as has been portrayed by some of the prospect writers. vientos gb% is the highest it's been this year at 54% and it has certainly not been a negative in terms of his results. william contreras is 55% this year and career 53%. vlad jr is 52%, career 49%. yandy diaz is 57% this year, 53% career.
that's a small group, but all are high exit velocity and high XBH, so id theorize that with hard enough contact you can hit successfully with a lower launch angle. tommy pham (50% gb) and yelich (56% gb) also fit this profile.
it is very possible this is an artifact of met prospects because they are looking for that type of hitter - which is solid contact mixed with solid power. almost all of those guys hit for solid batting averages (.270+) with decent power. also lower k-rates.
which sort of makes sense - high launch angle types are more upper cut type swingers who tend to be more all or nothing (think joey gallo, who has one of the highest launch angles in mlb).
Williams (hurt)
Gilbert (hurt)
Mauricio (hurt)
Acuna (disappointing)
Clifford (disappointing)
Houck (disappointing)
Ramirez (disappointing, probably not a prospect anymore)
Parada (disappointing)
Baez (strong season so far)
J-Rod (started hot, awful June, very young)
Vargas (hurt)
Yovanny Rodriguez (terrible so far)
Reimer (hurt)
Baro (good season so far)
De Oleo (awful)
Hernandez (nice season after a slow start)
Rudick (disappointing)
Lantigua (nice start)
Jordan (disappointing)
So toss in Baty and it's nearly impossible to give the Mets hitting development the benefit of the doubt. 2024 (to this point) due to injuries and underperformance = pretty ugly on the position player side.
"This is an average system in most respects. Its overall depth, as well as the number of Top 100 guys and impact prospects (40+ FV or better), hovers around average, trending down from last year because of the bumper crop of rookies who graduated out of the system in 2023. Arrows are up for pitchers across the system, including guys who haven’t been with the org for very long. "
He's certainly heating up but he's still hitting .196 with a 30% k rate in AA. I don't think anybody would have signed for that before the season even with the walks and now showing power finally. Also worth noting, his GB% in AA is 17.9%, in Brooklyn it was 44.1. So he's actually a poor example of "ground balls aren't so bad". His FB% has nearly doubled in Bing.
Morabito is a 4th or 5th OFer more likely or not and he too suffers from Mets disease. 55% GB% (would be 8th in the league if he qualified) out of 137 hitters, and his FB% would rank 134/137, ISO 112/137. He could be a solid role player but all in all the Mets top bats have either been injured or disappointing to the point it takes some real work to be "confident" in their development of hitters.
it's hard to fairly evaluate the system right now with the 3 top upper levels bats all injured all year, plus vargas lower level. however much people dont want to be impacted by the excitement of recency bias when guys are performing in a present day moment, it's hard to not do that.
i find it hard to call a system average when they have a higher number of players on most top 100 lists but its probably not even worth discussing, so much of the big picture prospect writer stuff is just fodder. last year the met org seemed like it had 0 pitching and at least some of the writers were critical of their pitching dev. now guys are breaking out and they are positive. so much of the prospect writer stuff that gets eyeballs is weather vane writing.
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Morabito and Ronald Hernandez is having a really good season so far and missing from above list just so it's not looking totally dire.
Morabito is a 4th or 5th OFer more likely or not and he too suffers from Mets disease. 55% GB% (would be 8th in the league if he qualified) out of 137 hitters, and his FB% would rank 134/137, ISO 112/137. He could be a solid role player but all in all the Mets top bats have either been injured or disappointing to the point it takes some real work to be "confident" in their development of hitters.
Just checked, 2 extra base hits in June (15 games). Very good runner, but if he's just going to be hitting the ball into the ground there is only so much value there.
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I wouldn't consider Clifford dissapointing but agree with your overall premise. The bats this year have not looked good besides a few and then injuries have sapped some of the more promising ones.
He's certainly heating up but he's still hitting .196 with a 30% k rate in AA. I don't think anybody would have signed for that before the season even with the walks and now showing power finally. Also worth noting, his GB% in AA is 17.9%, in Brooklyn it was 44.1. So he's actually a poor example of "ground balls aren't so bad". His FB% has nearly doubled in Bing.
I know I'm throwing out some stuff here but I'm not too concerned about the BA and we all know about the Brooklyn stuff. An OBP of .370 with a BB rate of 20.2% is great. SLG at AA of .511 also great and good for a 142 wRC+. We'll see where it goes but if you told those numbers I would have been more than ok with it. Even in his "disappointing" Brooklyn stint he had a 121 wRC+ so still above average offensively.
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In comment 16540139 GF1080 said:
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Morabito and Ronald Hernandez is having a really good season so far and missing from above list just so it's not looking totally dire.
Morabito is a 4th or 5th OFer more likely or not and he too suffers from Mets disease. 55% GB% (would be 8th in the league if he qualified) out of 137 hitters, and his FB% would rank 134/137, ISO 112/137. He could be a solid role player but all in all the Mets top bats have either been injured or disappointing to the point it takes some real work to be "confident" in their development of hitters.
Just checked, 2 extra base hits in June (15 games). Very good runner, but if he's just going to be hitting the ball into the ground there is only so much value there.
Agreed he needs to start showing that slugging again regardless of his ultimate upside. He has had a good year though up to this point.
it's hard to fairly evaluate the system right now with the 3 top upper levels bats all injured all year, plus vargas lower level. however much people dont want to be impacted by the excitement of recency bias when guys are performing in a present day moment, it's hard to not do that.
i find it hard to call a system average when they have a higher number of players on most top 100 lists but its probably not even worth discussing, so much of the big picture prospect writer stuff is just fodder. last year the met org seemed like it had 0 pitching and at least some of the writers were critical of their pitching dev. now guys are breaking out and they are positive. so much of the prospect writer stuff that gets eyeballs is weather vane writing.
What is the argument that supports the Mets minor league hitting prospects on the whole have had good first halves? Ernest Dove said Mets people have privately admitted that Parada isn't viewed as a prospect internally by the Mets anymore, Alex Ramirez looks like the exact same player he was in 2023 except without the bad luck BABIP wise
2023 .221/.310/.317- .277 BABIP
2024 .236/.325/.350-.308 BABIP
If he's still with the organization next season I'd be surprised given the fact he's already on the 40 man.
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I wouldn't consider Clifford dissapointing but agree with your overall premise. The bats this year have not looked good besides a few and then injuries have sapped some of the more promising ones.
He's certainly heating up but he's still hitting .196 with a 30% k rate in AA. I don't think anybody would have signed for that before the season even with the walks and now showing power finally. Also worth noting, his GB% in AA is 17.9%, in Brooklyn it was 44.1. So he's actually a poor example of "ground balls aren't so bad". His FB% has nearly doubled in Bing.
we dont have statcast on him but just based on having seen his swing i would bet clifford fits the higher launch angle more uppercutty swing and miss profile (just like duda).
Sulser, Walker, and Young are all on the 40 man so if they have to send SRF to DL they won't need to DFA anyone.
J-Rod grounds out (0-3)
What is the argument that supports the Mets minor league hitting prospects on the whole have had good first halves?
im not really arguing that, i just think it's kind of a big thing to not evaluate it in the context of jett, mauricio, gilbert, vargas all essentially not playing this year so far.
i would imagine if you took out the top 3 upper level prospects (all top 100 types) from any org that had 3 of those types of players, their system would not be looked at as favorably as if those players were playing and playing well. it his human nature to over weight what is happening and under weight what isnt (aka recency bias).
Some insight from arguably the top Mets IFA guy on twitter re Yovanny Rodriguez
"metZZ 1986®️
@bkfan09
He at the start was very passive, then he got super aggressive, and now he’s grounding out lol"
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0-2 BB, K (very rough start for him, huge bonus and all, he's now 3/30 as a pro), Vladi Guerrero 0-2, K
Some insight from arguably the top Mets IFA guy on twitter re Yovanny Rodriguez
"metZZ 1986®️
@bkfan09
He at the start was very passive, then he got super aggressive, and now he’s grounding out lol"
At least Daiverson is showing much better so far this season.
preseason he had the mets 1 of the 7 teams tied with the most top 100 prospects with 6, and the 11th ranked system valued at $235m, so from that we can infer it was viewed a little top heavy as there were a handful of orgs with fewer top 100's but higher overall value, though it's very slight because the difference between the 7 spot and 11 spot was about $14m (which is basically 2x fewer 45 grade prospects).
here is what is nuts though, out of that $235m more than half of it isn't playing with just the top 3:
Jett (#32) = $46m
Gilbert (#39) = $46m
Mauricio (#72) = $28m
i think it is human nature that if you took 3 of any of those other 7 teams out of the equation because they were presently injured, those systems would be looked at less favorably because of it even if they werent as top heavy. and since the met system strength was a little more top heavy than deep, it's a season where the farm system is being evaluated now at something closer to half strength (half value).
it is also probably a very rare thing to have happen where your 3 top hitting prospects are all out at the same time, so im not sure how well anyone is prepared to factor that into their analysis.
the mets system without those 3 players would have ranked 24th in kiley's ranks so based on only what has been on the field, it should be one of the least productive systems in mlb.
hadnt most of those guys fallen off the top 10 and down in the system preseason for a reason?
for each of the guys you listed continuing to trend negative, do you think it's equally important there are guys at the lower levels having good years (j-rod, juan, baez, etc) - some of whom already ranked above the former?
it seems to me there is a roughly proportional amount of guys guys having good years, bad years, and ok years (id put clifford/acuna in this category since they are within prior norms even with bad starts) - and the bigger outlier is the disproportional number of top guys who are injured and having no year.