NFT: Mets Minor League Thread (June)

Yikes. @FCLMets committed 6 errors, 4 by Jeremy Rodriguez. Almost have to wonder if he's taking his offensive struggles into the field with him? #Mets

Dom Hamel coming off a strong start amidst a rocky first half. 6 innings 7 hits 2 runs 1 walk 4 k's, hopefully he can build upon that tonight

realize hamstring injuries can linger but Gilbert and Reimer... a LONG time both out with hammies.

Wilmer Lugo on the season...7.1 innings 7 hits 3 er 8 walks 11 k's 7 wild pitches 4 HBP #Mets

Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
Simeon Woods Richardson's 2024 ERA is 3.26 through 12 starts.

That's the lowest ERA by a #Twins pitcher younger than 24 in his first 12 games of a season (min. 60 IP) since Scott Erickson in 1991 (1.53).

SNY Mets
@SNY_Mets
Catcher Joe Hudson will join the Mets for their series with the Cubs in Chicago, reports @martinonyc


Luis Torrens is being placed on the paternity list

Hudson last played in the majors in 2020 and has an .833 OPS this year for Triple-A Syracuse

is still 23 years old.

Seems like a lifetime ago he was traded.

he was drafted 6 years ago.

Wow! Tillman Pugh is STILL playing professional baseball (and well!) with an .874 OPS in the @AtlanticLg
. Pugh was @mets
15th round pick back in 2010

In comment 16540231 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Acuna has a 78 wRC+, there is a 0% chance you would have “signed for” that before the season, Colin Houck (their first round pick last season aka a player people would expect to have a good season in St Lucie) has an 84 wRC+ with a 36% k rate) even J-Rod, as strong as his May was, he has a sub .400 OPS in June. All in all, the “very good” seasons and breakouts are minimal vs. how many have disappointed and I recall you remaining pretty optimistic on both Parada and Ramirez before the season (Parada in particular) so to just hand wave them away seems kind of unfair

sorry for long reply but figured id do my best to explain the "why" here - i think it makes more sense to focus more on specific talents and the specific statistical outcomes that indicate those talents as opposed to top line catch all stats. k rates and walk rates chief among them even though they dont even directly impact top line effectiveness. im also big on defensive value if players play premium positions.

This is generally for all players (and why i defended lindor a month ago when his RC was 90 bc it was clear he was mostly hitting into bad outcome luck) but especially prospects, and even more especially when needing to age-weight for guys playing against older players. Within seasons numbers fluctuate greatly, i try to zoom out.

its why i had a lot more rope with gimenez, vientos, and mauricio bc below the surface they each did specific things well even if the big picture wasnt always exciting. ex:

in 2021 mauricios rc was 94 at A+,
in 2022 it was 104 at AA,
in 2023 it was 108 at AAA,

you may recall me remaining pretty bullish on him throughout those years right? that's because the net of things he was showing the talent to do (xbh) was more important to me than the things he wasnt doing well (walking). i thought his overall topline was incorrectly weighted against the talent he was showing for loud contact with decent contact profile, so i was higher on him.

i have made the exact same types of arguments for acuna since may 1 and clifford since his promotion so if you want to see my justifications for not thinking their seasons to date are disappointments, just reread my comments from earlier in this thread on both of them. the kind of shorter versions are that Clifford has been an XBH machine since getting out of Brooklyn, and Acuna's contact profile keeps getting better. Since May 1 he is hitting .280 with a .340 obp and 700+ ops which are all pretty close to his full minor league career avg prior. we dont have full savant numbers on them but both have shown good EV (and a lot of HH contact) which is something i value. i think we can find this year to be productive for both of them even if not an obvious leap forward bc any amount of progress is still progress and they have shown they can do things at higher levels.

if a few more weak singles fell in and they were hitting above their weight classes (as vientos happens to be right now with the big club and his 156 wrc) with a higher than usual BABIP that wouldnt necessarily swing me up so i also try to not let it swing me down and i generally point that out that context in either case. i remember when they acquired acuna pointing out that his .381 babip in tex was obviously not sustainable. i have been the most bullish on vientos of anyone and even i do not think he's now a .300+ hitter. i think it's far more likely he settles close to what his averages have always been, which is in the .270 range (and would correspond with both his XBA and a more normal BABIP).

you are correct ive also given more rope to houck, parada, ramirez but that's mostly based on their pedigrees/bonuses and their experience levels. its still early for houck so i dont lump him with the other 2 yet. players are going to have down years occasionally so i generally dont hop off until players start stringing together bad years (especially if they are still teenagers). there was no reason to find simon juan interesting other than his age/bonus prior to this year. also why when holderman popped in spring training a couple years ago i found that more notable than some joe schmo waiver claim. you may remember i also got real hot on j-rod right away and that was because at 16 he was at the top of his league full of players 1-2+ yrs older than him along with his high bonus pedigree. it wasnt just bc of his specific statline, it was bc of all the context and that takes a lot more than 1 bad month to meaningfully shift for me.

last thing - i only follow this closely 5-10 hitters (and obviously i focus on nym system). so it is a super small sample size of statistical analysis. over the decade or so we've had public data to go that deep, ive found it anecdotally to be relatively effective but i have no idea how predictive it would be at a larger scale. last year when scout the statline was public, i think their model identified similar stuff to what i look for at scale because it was higher on guys that i at the time remember being higher on (like vientos/mauricio) but i have no way of knowing how good or bad my opinions are other then having gotten a few things right anecdotally.

In comment 16540313 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

is still 23 years old. Seems like a lifetime ago he was traded. he was drafted 6 years ago.

still has 3 years (and 30 million reasons) to figure out how to turn himself into montero.

In comment 16540283 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

realize hamstring injuries can linger but Gilbert and Reimer... a LONG time both out with hammies.

Seems crazy to me.

for the record, Jeremy Rodriguez is 18 on July 4th, he's not 16, which is why I gave the above stats regarding he vs. his age appropriate peers.

Teenagers in the FCL (17-19 year olds)

He ranks (out of 66)

15th in average
tied for 17th in HR's
tied for 16th in SB's
31st in BB's
32nd in wRC+
32nd in wOBA

If you remove the 19 year olds (32 such players)

he's still 15th in wRC+
15th in wOBA
15th in OBA

So he's been solid, he's been good but he's hardly had some sort of big "breakout" even considering his age.

That's not dumping on the kid. It's pointing out the number of players in the Mets system who have put up impressive numbers beyond expectations remains extremely small. Yes, the injuries have been a major factor. But there aren't many "woah, what a start for...."

In comment 16540348 KevinBBWC said:

Quote:

In comment 16540283 DanMetroMan said: Quote: realize hamstring injuries can linger but Gilbert and Reimer... a LONG time both out with hammies. Seems crazy to me.

I suspect Gilbert had a set back. Will Sammon originally said they were angling for late May or early June and now it sounds like he's "not close" (Mayer). Reimer, who knows? They haven't said a word. This was all that was ever reported

"Sam Dykstra
@SamDykstraMiLB
#Mets prospect injury updates:

-Jacob Reimer (No. 15) will be out until around June with a pulled hamstring."

I realize “around June” includes June 20th lol

Acuna 0-2, Baty 0-1 (starting at 2B), Hamel 3 innings 1 hit 1 run *3* walks 1 K, 1 HBP #Mets

Tong 2 innings 0 hits 0 walks 3 k’s, 29 pitches, 19 strikes, Morabito 0-1, Lorusso 1-1 #Mets

Clifford 0-1 BB, K, Parada 1-2 2B, McLean 0-1 K, Ramirez 1-2 2B, Sproat 3 innings 3 hits 3 runs 1 walk 1 k 1 wp #Mets

Sproat 4 innings 3 hits 3 runs 1 walk 2 k’s #Mets
Tony 3 innings 1 hit 0 runs 1 walk 6 k’s Hamel 4 innings 5 hits 3 runs 3 walks 1 K.

Baez 2-3 2B, Ewing 1-1 HR, BB, Baro 1-3, Houck 0-2 K, Wenninger 4 innings 5 hits 4 runs 2 walks 5 k’s #Mets

In comment 16540379 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

for the record, Jeremy Rodriguez is 18 on July 4th, he's not 16, which is why I gave the above stats regarding he vs. his age appropriate peers. Teenagers in the FCL (17-19 year olds) He ranks (out of 66) 15th in average tied for 17th in HR's tied for 16th in SB's 31st in BB's 32nd in wRC+ 32nd in wOBA If you remove the 19 year olds (32 such players) he's still 15th in wRC+ 15th in wOBA 15th in OBA So he's been solid, he's been good but he's hardly had some sort of big "breakout" even considering his age. That's not dumping on the kid. It's pointing out the number of players in the Mets system who have put up impressive numbers beyond expectations remains extremely small. Yes, the injuries have been a major factor. But there aren't many "woah, what a start for...."

im talking about last year when we were talking about his numbers in the DSL. in our discussion last year you were critical of DSL numbers (for good reason), my point then and my point today is that J-rods actually specific numbers didn't matter (like OPS/batting avg/etc). what stood out then was how much younger he was than the rest of the league and that from what i remember he was at the top of it in a bunch of categories. so put plainly it appeared that he was one of the best players in the league despite also being one the youngest. imo prospects always needed to be graded against the curve of their experience relative to comp level.

Singled, stole and 2 bases but then looked like he jammed his shoulder and left the game after the half inning

Outing by Sproat

6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 84 pitches/ 55 strikes

In comment 16540448 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 16540379 DanMetroMan said: Quote: for the record, Jeremy Rodriguez is 18 on July 4th, he's not 16, which is why I gave the above stats regarding he vs. his age appropriate peers. Teenagers in the FCL (17-19 year olds) He ranks (out of 66) 15th in average tied for 17th in HR's tied for 16th in SB's 31st in BB's 32nd in wRC+ 32nd in wOBA If you remove the 19 year olds (32 such players) he's still 15th in wRC+ 15th in wOBA 15th in OBA So he's been solid, he's been good but he's hardly had some sort of big "breakout" even considering his age. That's not dumping on the kid. It's pointing out the number of players in the Mets system who have put up impressive numbers beyond expectations remains extremely small. Yes, the injuries have been a major factor. But there aren't many "woah, what a start for...." im talking about last year when we were talking about his numbers in the DSL. in our discussion last year you were critical of DSL numbers (for good reason), my point then and my point today is that J-rods actually specific numbers didn't matter (like OPS/batting avg/etc). what stood out then was how much younger he was than the rest of the league and that from what i remember he was at the top of it in a bunch of categories. so put plainly it appeared that he was one of the best players in the league despite also being one the youngest. imo prospects always needed to be graded against the curve of their experience relative to comp level.

FWIW related but not exactly related JJ Cooper went as far as to high walk numbers should almost completely be ignored in the DSL because of how ridiculous the hitting environment/poor the pitching is. I mean I mentioned him earlier but Wilmer Lugo 7.1 innings 7 hits 3 er 8 walks 11 k's 7 wild pitches 4 HB, I’m not saying I’d be able to walk walk against him but I’m guess not too many of his pitches are down the middle lol

And bonus babies I asked Badler why Juan is completely ignored by prospect writers but he’s yet to respond

To dead center

taught me to not take too seriously anything that happens below A ball.

In comment 16540468 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

To dead center

give the man get some reps in a corner and let's give him stewart's spot in a week!!! he has a couple hundred innings in LF between 2021 and 2022, got to think that's easier to go back to doing than playing a whole new position (2b).

.

In comment 16540479 BocaGene said:

Quote:

.

no idea other than 1 error, 3 assts, 55 put outs. 29 games so roughly 1/5 of a full seasons worth of games.

Or something serious like that would be par for the course for our hitting prospects this year.

Not to be a Debbie downer but roster construction wise for 2025 - they were banking on a couple of these guys being able to fill out that roster and at this point the reality is I am not sure you can assume a single one of them is ready next year.

finally promoted to AAA

Released

Rough start so far today for Tidwell. Through.2 innings he’s allowed 2 hits, 2 walks and 3 runs. AAA era up to 6.04. Acuna 1-1, Baty 0-1 K (playing 2B), Ritter 1-1 #Mets

Luisangel Acuna now 2-2 with 2 rbi. His OPS is slowly creeping up. Still not great (.696) but has posted back to back multi hit games #Mets

In comment 16541480 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Luisangel Acuna now 2-2 with 2 rbi. His OPS is slowly creeping up. Still not great (.696) but has posted back to back multi hit games #Mets

also both hard hit today. he had a stretch in early june where he had very few hits but had a ton of hard hit contact. so i dont think this is as much 2 hot streaks with a cold streak in the middle as it is 1 continuous improvement after the first month adjusting to AAA.

he hit .282 in may, .288 going into today in june. k rate is down to 16%.

my guess is he spends at least another couple weeks down there through ASB/deadline, but if there were an injury to a MI i think he's probably done enough that they'd call him up over a AAAA player. they could obviously choose to call up Baty ahead of him but i wouldnt do that until there's regular playing time for him.

Blade Tidwell has walked 3 over 2.1 innings and 19 over 23.2 AAA innings. He appears unlikely to see Queens in 2024. He hasn’t struck out a batter.

Now has 3 hits

Tidwell has settled down but *0* k’s. 5 innings 4 hits 3 runs 3 walks 0 k’s

Hoping for mid July for Gilbert

Anthony DiComo
Verified

@AnthonyDiComo
Although the Mets are not committing to anything just yet, there's a "good chance" Christian Scott returns to the rotation during their 17-game stretch without an off day that begins Friday and runs through the All-Star break. "He's in play," manager Carlos Mendoza said.

Anthony DiComo
Verified

@AnthonyDiComo
·
3m
Kodai Senga (shoulder, triceps) threw a 22-pitch live BP session today in Port St. Lucie, Fla., marking his first time facing hitters since early May.

Senga will now fly back to New York with an eye toward potentially throwing another live BP by the end of this week.

In comment 16541560 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Anthony DiComo Verified @AnthonyDiComo · 3m Kodai Senga (shoulder, triceps) threw a 22-pitch live BP session today in Port St. Lucie, Fla., marking his first time facing hitters since early May. Senga will now fly back to New York with an eye toward potentially throwing another live BP by the end of this week.

hopefully timing to slide in for anyone they may decide to move on from before trade deadline. i wouldnt want to move manaea or severino, hopefully quintana has a hot month or so.

In comment 16541492 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Now has 3 hits

looks like the 3rd was also hard hit, and 4th was only off by 2 mph.

93 mph groundout
108.6 mph 2b
101.8 mph 1b
100.9mph 1b

athletic, hard to strike out, hits ball hard, versatile defensively = solid combination. good style compliment to alvarez, vientos, mauricio, baty too.

To BK

Diego Mosquera transferred from @stluciemets to @FCLMets and Andriel Lantigua from @BKCyclones to @FCLMets #Mets

Hurtado 2 innings 0 walks 0 hits 4 k's last time out. They have really limited his innings (last time out was his first time throwing more than 1.1) we'll see if they let him air it out as the season moves along

Stanley Consuegra promoted to @RumblePoniesBB per @BKCyclones #Mets

Consuegra played a whopping 209 games as member of the Cyclones over parts of 3 seasons. Consuegra along with recently added Duke Ellis will presumably take some of the playing time previously given to recently released Brandon McIIwain #Mets

@fclmets
Hurtado 1.1 innings 3 hits 3 runs 3 walks 2 k's, Ovalles 2.2 innings 1 hit 0 runs 2 walks 0 k's, J-Rod 1-4, 2b, Juan 0-2 BB, Zayas 0-1 BB, Zitella 1-2, BB, De Oleo 0-2, BB,Carlos Oviedo is now 1-32 on the season #Mets

.@SyracuseMets TBD
@RumblePoniesBB Joander Suarez (Coming off an outstanding start, up and down month for JS. 2 strong starts, 2 stinkers)
@BKCyclones Jonathan Pintaro(coming off 6 strong innings, originally signed with @mets mid game!)
@stluciemets TBD
@FCLMets TBD
DSL TBD #Mets

Florida Complex League Mets
@FCLMets
Welcome back, Fuji!

Shintaro Fujinami tossed a 1-2-3 inning, topping out at 98 mph, in his first rehab outing this afternoon.

#LGM