i didnt think he'd get past bosa's deal but functionally it appears he did. bosa got 5x170m, 4x140m with more guaranteed is better and not by a little bit.
the day calvin ridley signed in FA he was WR6 overall and WR2 by full guarantee.
age 29 Calvin Ridley signed 4x92m on 3/13.
age 27 michael pittman extended off tag at a slightly higher aav basically same day.
and teams basically said to each other "lets offer our young WRs free agent $ on extensions before JJ resets the whole market".
now dallas is in a bit of a pickle with ceedee lamb. he will probably come in somewhere in between ASB and JJ.
Warren Sharp
@SharpFootball
·
NFL with young stud WRs:
6/3 - Justin Jefferson 4 for $140M
5/30 - Jaylen Waddle 3 for $85M
5/28 - Nico Collins 3 for $73M
4/25 - A.J. Brown 3 for $96M
4/24 - Amon-Ra St Brown 4 for $120M
4/15 - DeVonta Smith 3 for $75M
At the amount these receivers are making.. I know it’s a passing league and the cap rises each year but in recent history name me the star elite receiver that was part of a Super Bowl winner? You can probably count them on one hand!
At the amount these receivers are making.. I know it’s a passing league and the cap rises each year but in recent history name me the star elite receiver that was part of a Super Bowl winner? You can probably count them on one hand!
kupp in LA.
tyreek hill in KC.
evans/godwin in TB.
aiyuk/deebo and smith/ajb each got there and were big reasons they played KC close.
higgins/chase also big part of CIN getting there.
kelce should probably be considered a half point since he is by far the best receiving TE in the NFL.
At the amount these receivers are making.. I know it’s a passing league and the cap rises each year but in recent history name me the star elite receiver that was part of a Super Bowl winner? You can probably count them on one hand!
Should not be counting Kelce being a flex tight end.. btw Kelce is underpaid based on some of these receivers. Therefore I count 4 receivers on 3 Super Bowl winning teams.. That’s not many and compared to teams that have won w/o an ALL PRO receiver it’s not even close.
kupp in LA.
tyreek hill in KC.
evans/godwin in TB.
aiyuk/deebo and smith/ajb each got there and were big reasons they played KC close.
higgins/chase also big part of CIN getting there.
kelce should probably be considered a half point since he is by far the best receiving TE in the NFL.
At the amount these receivers are making.. I know it’s a passing league and the cap rises each year but in recent history name me the star elite receiver that was part of a Super Bowl winner? You can probably count them on one hand!
To add to Eric's post the old adage/question used to be “how many SBs have been won with a QB on a 2nd huge contract”? The NFL changes, teams that pay WRs have and are going to continue to win SuperBowls.
if we are saying that's "just 4 WR on SB winning teams"
how do you ignore that it's 4 in the last 5 SB winning teams?
and that the only other team who won in that time period had kelce/mahomes (so needless to say, a very good passing game despite having traded hill)?
if you're argument is that before this last half decade there were 4+ decades of precedent where receivers didn't link to winning, doesn't that just make the case of a TREND stronger? that WRs have become a much more important position?
i also think ignoring SB losers when last 3 were 1 possession games
4 elite WRs ($20m+) on winning teams (kupp, hill, evans, godwin)
6 elite WRs ($20m+) on the losing teams (chase, higgins, smith, ajb, aiyuk, deebo)
and then obviously kelce winning 3 of the last 5 (gronk also on TB).
so 10 elite WRs appeared in the last 5 super bowls.
and on top of that, most of the best teams those teams beat to get there had elite WRs (diggs, lamb, davante in gb, metcalf, amon-ra, etc)
there is a reason WR now has more non-qbs making 30m+ AAV than any other position. it has trended to being a very important position even beyond this half decade, and bc of rule changes that has continued to accelerate.
just a couple recent examples of teams with and without a premier WR.
I know there were other moving parts, but look at the Titans and eagles with and without AJ Brown.
Titans went from 12-5 in AJB's last season with them to 7-10 after the trade. Eagles went from 9-8 WC loser the yr before AJB to 14-3 and losing a close SB with AJB.
You can see similar effect when the Bills traded for Diggs.
Again, I know there was more to the stories, but I don't think you can rule out the impact a stud WR can make. I look forward to seeing the impact Nabers is going to have here.
with a big year chase can beat jj's deal but i doubt it will be another major reset. its possible he's had enough injuries he'd be willing to extend early but i dont think he'd beat it if he does that.
on queue re lamb (who also wont beat jj's deal):
JosinaAnderson
@JosinaAnderson
·
I'm told talks between the #Cowboys and WR Cee Dee Lamb are expected to "speed up"--beyond its previous pace-- since "there's at least a number" with the announcement of #Vikings WR Justin Jefferson's record-setting non-quarterback contract extension today, per source.
Would have been smart to get Lamb done before Jefferson. Before this offseason really.
once the new cap got announced so much higher the teams were basically screwed.
nobody was going to extend before free agency, and the players in free agency were destined to cash in higher than expected because of the amount of cash on the market (inflation).
once calvin ridley at age 29 off a marginal year got 92m, it was basically a waiting game to see how many guys pushed beyond that.
the best players who were closest to FA knew there was no urgency to get a new deal until camp, which is why lamb could simply wait for a jefferson deal then draft off that. the teams with players who hadnt gotten paid yet like Detroit/Houston were probably smart to move quickly on Collins/ASB.
before NFL owners get together and start treating WRs like RBs when it comes to contract money time?
The reason why RB's get low contract money is because the running back is not a prime source of offense anymore. The days of Earl Campbell type bell cow RB's who carry the team are long over. The passing game is most of the offense
Will be asked to pay higher ticket prices. The days of going to a game with family is coming to a end. Everything will now be sold to corporations
Not quite. Ticket prices are usually market dependent. While ticket prices will escalate, they can't go too high, or you'll have empty stadiums. Bad look for the teams and the NFL..and TV would not be happy with that.
Where the NFL will get the money to pay higher contracts is TV. We're seeing that now, with Amazon, Netflix, Paramount, etc. now streaming games. Your Cable/Streaming bill is going up as a result.
As a side note, TV money is why the NFL is looking to expand it's reach World wide. The NFL is looking at what Soccer gets with international TV contracts. For example, the Super Bown World Wide gets about 150 million viewers. The World Cup gets 3.5 BILLION viewers.
Even if the NFL could only double their viewership to 300 million, that would be a massive increase in Advertising revenue.
Would have been smart to get Lamb done before Jefferson. Before this offseason really.
Takes 2 to tango. There was no real incentive for Lamb to push the deal outside of hedging against injury. But now that it’s the offseason he should get all he can. Cowboys likely made him a team friendly offer already to start negotiations.
But they locked up Smith and AJB relatively early, AJB this offseason but they got a discount on if they waited until after the Jefferson deal.
Dallas seems to be dragging their feet on all their guys though, so could be a shift in strategy if they're heading towards a reset. But if they had intentions, they should have been on top of this 2 years ago really, Lamb is on his 5th year.
I don't see how you can commit THAT much to a WR, Draft picks are going to go way up in value imo, the WRs coming out of college these days are VERY talented. Rather commit my offense cap % to QB and OL and draft WRs regularly. WRs WILL go the way of the RB though to a lesser extent obv.
Would have been smart to get Lamb done before Jefferson. Before this offseason really.
Takes 2 to tango. There was no real incentive for Lamb to push the deal outside of hedging against injury. But now that it’s the offseason he should get all he can. Cowboys likely made him a team friendly offer already to start negotiations.
This right here.
Jefferson, Chase, and Lamb have been playing chicken as to who signs first to set the market.
Now that the first domino has fallen Chase and Lamb will be signing soon. Both will definitely get a deal done before the season begins.
before NFL owners get together and start treating WRs like RBs when it comes to contract money time?
The reason why RB's get low contract money is because the running back is not a prime source of offense anymore. The days of Earl Campbell type bell cow RB's who carry the team are long over. The passing game is most of the offense
I don't see how you can commit THAT much to a WR, Draft picks are going to go way up in value imo, the WRs coming out of college these days are VERY talented. Rather commit my offense cap % to QB and OL and draft WRs regularly. WRs WILL go the way of the RB though to a lesser extent obv.
Well you can only pay a QB that you drafted or traded for (unless you love a guy like Dak IF he hits FA), and ditto for OL. You can’t just keep all your money to pay players you may not have the opportunity to offer a contract to. WR is a premium position and until that changes, I expect that trend to continue.
I don't see how you can commit THAT much to a WR, Draft picks are going to go way up in value imo, the WRs coming out of college these days are VERY talented. Rather commit my offense cap % to QB and OL and draft WRs regularly. WRs WILL go the way of the RB though to a lesser extent obv.
Well you can only pay a QB that you drafted or traded for (unless you love a guy like Dak IF he hits FA), and ditto for OL. You can’t just keep all your money to pay players you may not have the opportunity to offer a contract to. WR is a premium position and until that changes, I expect that trend to continue.
IMO It all becomes a moneyball game, if I'd rather invest 40% of what JJ got into retaining/attracting quality OL. I guarantee I can replicate JJs production across a good WR corps(doesn't need to be JJ elite) with a protected QB(assuming he's above average). Good WRs are available in the draft every year after round 1. Just my 2cents
I don't see how you can commit THAT much to a WR, Draft picks are going to go way up in value imo, the WRs coming out of college these days are VERY talented. Rather commit my offense cap % to QB and OL and draft WRs regularly. WRs WILL go the way of the RB though to a lesser extent obv.
Well you can only pay a QB that you drafted or traded for (unless you love a guy like Dak IF he hits FA), and ditto for OL. You can’t just keep all your money to pay players you may not have the opportunity to offer a contract to. WR is a premium position and until that changes, I expect that trend to continue.
IMO It all becomes a moneyball game, if I'd rather invest 40% of what JJ got into retaining/attracting quality OL. I guarantee I can replicate JJs production across a good WR corps(doesn't need to be JJ elite) with a protected QB(assuming he's above average). Good WRs are available in the draft every year after round 1. Just my 2cents
Receivers generally have a much longer NFL shelf life than running backs, so
I'm not sure I see the correlation.
I don’t think that will happen, but you have seen a trend where some GMs would rather trade a star WR rather than give them the second contract.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next few years.
the day calvin ridley signed in FA he was WR6 overall and WR2 by full guarantee.
since that day i think 7 extensions above his AAV/guarantees have been given out and ceedee lamb's is probably not far away too.
I think WR contracts are about to go surge+ pricing - ( New Window )
Why does it matter? Cap increases, salaries increase, and in a passing league WR is still a premium position. Not sure I understand the issue.
age 27 michael pittman extended off tag at a slightly higher aav basically same day.
and teams basically said to each other "lets offer our young WRs free agent $ on extensions before JJ resets the whole market".
now dallas is in a bit of a pickle with ceedee lamb. he will probably come in somewhere in between ASB and JJ.
Warren Sharp
@SharpFootball
·
NFL with young stud WRs:
6/3 - Justin Jefferson 4 for $140M
5/30 - Jaylen Waddle 3 for $85M
5/28 - Nico Collins 3 for $73M
4/25 - A.J. Brown 3 for $96M
4/24 - Amon-Ra St Brown 4 for $120M
4/15 - DeVonta Smith 3 for $75M
kupp in LA.
tyreek hill in KC.
evans/godwin in TB.
aiyuk/deebo and smith/ajb each got there and were big reasons they played KC close.
higgins/chase also big part of CIN getting there.
kelce should probably be considered a half point since he is by far the best receiving TE in the NFL.
Quote:
At the amount these receivers are making.. I know it’s a passing league and the cap rises each year but in recent history name me the star elite receiver that was part of a Super Bowl winner? You can probably count them on one hand!
Should not be counting Kelce being a flex tight end.. btw Kelce is underpaid based on some of these receivers. Therefore I count 4 receivers on 3 Super Bowl winning teams.. That’s not many and compared to teams that have won w/o an ALL PRO receiver it’s not even close.
kupp in LA.
tyreek hill in KC.
evans/godwin in TB.
aiyuk/deebo and smith/ajb each got there and were big reasons they played KC close.
higgins/chase also big part of CIN getting there.
kelce should probably be considered a half point since he is by far the best receiving TE in the NFL.
To add to Eric's post the old adage/question used to be “how many SBs have been won with a QB on a 2nd huge contract”? The NFL changes, teams that pay WRs have and are going to continue to win SuperBowls.
how do you ignore that it's 4 in the last 5 SB winning teams?
and that the only other team who won in that time period had kelce/mahomes (so needless to say, a very good passing game despite having traded hill)?
if you're argument is that before this last half decade there were 4+ decades of precedent where receivers didn't link to winning, doesn't that just make the case of a TREND stronger? that WRs have become a much more important position?
out of the last 5 super bowls i count:
4 elite WRs ($20m+) on winning teams (kupp, hill, evans, godwin)
6 elite WRs ($20m+) on the losing teams (chase, higgins, smith, ajb, aiyuk, deebo)
and then obviously kelce winning 3 of the last 5 (gronk also on TB).
so 10 elite WRs appeared in the last 5 super bowls.
and on top of that, most of the best teams those teams beat to get there had elite WRs (diggs, lamb, davante in gb, metcalf, amon-ra, etc)
there is a reason WR now has more non-qbs making 30m+ AAV than any other position. it has trended to being a very important position even beyond this half decade, and bc of rule changes that has continued to accelerate.
But it was negated by the worst coaching decisions in SB history.
I know there were other moving parts, but look at the Titans and eagles with and without AJ Brown.
Titans went from 12-5 in AJB's last season with them to 7-10 after the trade. Eagles went from 9-8 WC loser the yr before AJB to 14-3 and losing a close SB with AJB.
You can see similar effect when the Bills traded for Diggs.
Again, I know there was more to the stories, but I don't think you can rule out the impact a stud WR can make. I look forward to seeing the impact Nabers is going to have here.
with a big year chase can beat jj's deal but i doubt it will be another major reset. its possible he's had enough injuries he'd be willing to extend early but i dont think he'd beat it if he does that.
on queue re lamb (who also wont beat jj's deal):
JosinaAnderson
@JosinaAnderson
·
I'm told talks between the #Cowboys and WR Cee Dee Lamb are expected to "speed up"--beyond its previous pace-- since "there's at least a number" with the announcement of #Vikings WR Justin Jefferson's record-setting non-quarterback contract extension today, per source.
once the new cap got announced so much higher the teams were basically screwed.
nobody was going to extend before free agency, and the players in free agency were destined to cash in higher than expected because of the amount of cash on the market (inflation).
once calvin ridley at age 29 off a marginal year got 92m, it was basically a waiting game to see how many guys pushed beyond that.
the best players who were closest to FA knew there was no urgency to get a new deal until camp, which is why lamb could simply wait for a jefferson deal then draft off that. the teams with players who hadnt gotten paid yet like Detroit/Houston were probably smart to move quickly on Collins/ASB.
The reason why RB's get low contract money is because the running back is not a prime source of offense anymore. The days of Earl Campbell type bell cow RB's who carry the team are long over. The passing game is most of the offense
Not quite. Ticket prices are usually market dependent. While ticket prices will escalate, they can't go too high, or you'll have empty stadiums. Bad look for the teams and the NFL..and TV would not be happy with that.
Where the NFL will get the money to pay higher contracts is TV. We're seeing that now, with Amazon, Netflix, Paramount, etc. now streaming games. Your Cable/Streaming bill is going up as a result.
As a side note, TV money is why the NFL is looking to expand it's reach World wide. The NFL is looking at what Soccer gets with international TV contracts. For example, the Super Bown World Wide gets about 150 million viewers. The World Cup gets 3.5 BILLION viewers.
Even if the NFL could only double their viewership to 300 million, that would be a massive increase in Advertising revenue.
Takes 2 to tango. There was no real incentive for Lamb to push the deal outside of hedging against injury. But now that it’s the offseason he should get all he can. Cowboys likely made him a team friendly offer already to start negotiations.
Dallas seems to be dragging their feet on all their guys though, so could be a shift in strategy if they're heading towards a reset. But if they had intentions, they should have been on top of this 2 years ago really, Lamb is on his 5th year.
Why? The league has a salary cap so it doesn't matter how they divvy up the pie. The total cost should be the same.
Quote:
Would have been smart to get Lamb done before Jefferson. Before this offseason really.
Takes 2 to tango. There was no real incentive for Lamb to push the deal outside of hedging against injury. But now that it’s the offseason he should get all he can. Cowboys likely made him a team friendly offer already to start negotiations.
This right here.
Jefferson, Chase, and Lamb have been playing chicken as to who signs first to set the market.
Now that the first domino has fallen Chase and Lamb will be signing soon. Both will definitely get a deal done before the season begins.
Quote:
before NFL owners get together and start treating WRs like RBs when it comes to contract money time?
The reason why RB's get low contract money is because the running back is not a prime source of offense anymore. The days of Earl Campbell type bell cow RB's who carry the team are long over. The passing game is most of the offense
yep.
It was hamstring and he came back after 7/8 weeks, finishing the season with 30/475/2 his last 4 games. He’s fine.
Well you can only pay a QB that you drafted or traded for (unless you love a guy like Dak IF he hits FA), and ditto for OL. You can’t just keep all your money to pay players you may not have the opportunity to offer a contract to. WR is a premium position and until that changes, I expect that trend to continue.
Quote:
I don't see how you can commit THAT much to a WR, Draft picks are going to go way up in value imo, the WRs coming out of college these days are VERY talented. Rather commit my offense cap % to QB and OL and draft WRs regularly. WRs WILL go the way of the RB though to a lesser extent obv.
Well you can only pay a QB that you drafted or traded for (unless you love a guy like Dak IF he hits FA), and ditto for OL. You can’t just keep all your money to pay players you may not have the opportunity to offer a contract to. WR is a premium position and until that changes, I expect that trend to continue.
IMO It all becomes a moneyball game, if I'd rather invest 40% of what JJ got into retaining/attracting quality OL. I guarantee I can replicate JJs production across a good WR corps(doesn't need to be JJ elite) with a protected QB(assuming he's above average). Good WRs are available in the draft every year after round 1. Just my 2cents
The guy has had arguably the best start to a career in the history of receivers, including Moss and Beckham.
If he's not the guy to pay, who is?
Quote:
In comment 16529978 EJNNJ said:
Quote:
I don't see how you can commit THAT much to a WR, Draft picks are going to go way up in value imo, the WRs coming out of college these days are VERY talented. Rather commit my offense cap % to QB and OL and draft WRs regularly. WRs WILL go the way of the RB though to a lesser extent obv.
Well you can only pay a QB that you drafted or traded for (unless you love a guy like Dak IF he hits FA), and ditto for OL. You can’t just keep all your money to pay players you may not have the opportunity to offer a contract to. WR is a premium position and until that changes, I expect that trend to continue.
IMO It all becomes a moneyball game, if I'd rather invest 40% of what JJ got into retaining/attracting quality OL. I guarantee I can replicate JJs production across a good WR corps(doesn't need to be JJ elite) with a protected QB(assuming he's above average). Good WRs are available in the draft every year after round 1. Just my 2cents
Ohh ok, you can guarantee it, lol.