Edmonton Oilers @ Florida Panthers 8pm ET on ABC.
The Panthers are favored to win the series due to a well balanced team and a stout goalie, but the Oilers have the playoffs top 4 scorers and 5 of the top 7.
Florida's biggest weakness is their D are not very good defensively and due to their aggressive style they play in the offensive zone are prone to giving up odd-man rushes and they rely on their goalie (Bobrovsky) to bail them out. They also take a lot of penalties (generally speaking).
the Oilers are lethal on the power play (37.3% to lead the playoffs). The Oilers PK also leads the playoffs. They will need both to be at their best to win the series because their goalie (Skinner) has not been consistent (but was fantastic in the Dallas series).
This is Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl's first SCF appearance and both have had stellar careers to this point, but post-season success has eluded them both and been a stain to an extent on their careers. The only stain.
Should be a fun series. The heavy forecheck and 200-foot game of Florida with Barkov, Tkachuck, Bennett, Verhaeghe, Reinhart, vs the speed and skill of Edmonton with McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, etc.
MSG and Crypto <2500 miles apart.
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Bobrovsky is a huge advantage in goal for Panthers.
I thought Draisatil left his feet on elbow hit yo Barkov
Need to shoot more. They keep looking for the seam pass and Barkov (or others) keep getting their stick in the lane. Probably why Draisaitl targeted Barkov. I hope he returns he was my FLA bet for Conn Smythe. Though at this rate it's Bobrovsky's to lose.
The PP is the story of the series, like FLA vs NYR. Other things are happening and people will harp on them, but the difference is 0% on the PP for EDM, a team who relies on PP goals to score.
They say your goalie has to be your best penalty killer and while I don't think EDM is getting the best looks, it's probably true about Bobrovsky.
EDM should be shooting for sticks, getting traffic in front, etc. but hard to tell the owners of a historic playoff PP they need to do something differently.
Quite frankly, I am shocked he did not receive a major penalty from referees who huddled up after hit.
I hope Barkov is OK as he is fun to watch
Need to shoot more. They keep looking for the seam pass and Barkov (or others) keep getting their stick in the lane. Probably why Draisaitl targeted Barkov. I hope he returns he was my FLA bet for Conn Smythe. Though at this rate it's Bobrovsky's to lose.
The PP is the story of the series, like FLA vs NYR. Other things are happening and people will harp on them, but the difference is 0% on the PP for EDM, a team who relies on PP goals to score.
They say your goalie has to be your best penalty killer and while I don't think EDM is getting the best looks, it's probably true about Bobrovsky.
EDM should be shooting for sticks, getting traffic in front, etc. but hard to tell the owners of a historic playoff PP they need to do something differently.
This is probably a poor analogy, but heavy reliance or success on PP reminds me of baseball teams with extremely good offenses trying to find success in October. Things tighten up and it's usually the teams with the timely pitching and good defense that usually end up winning.
but...LAK was 3rd and VAN was 6th and DAL was 8th (all top 10) and EDM beat all three to get here and in the process had put up the highest PP% in playoff history.
So, FLA is it, they have it figured out?
Even if EDM was not producing on the PP at historic levels so far in this series being 0 for 7 is a series loser for them - IOW they don't need almost 40% but 20% would be ok and possibly gets them a split in FLA.
Florida looks unbeatable and I guess everyone was right saying Rangers/Panthers was the SCF.
Do you think Edmonton is going to be swept?
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released. Of course USA vs Canada is in MTL, but I am definitely going to try and get tickets for the BOS game USA vs SWE game and maybe the finals.
Do you think Edmonton is going to be swept?
Sure seems possible, If they can't score on the PP seems even more possible. I think they win at least one in Edmonton though.
Correct.
I think FL sweeps.
the extra day should help. didn't look like he broke anything serious or suffered any LBI or a shoulder injury so either a jaw which is NBD (easy for me to say, lol) or a concussion (which could be serious) IMO.
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I think the last sweep in the NHL finals was the Red Wings? 1998?
Correct.
I think FL sweeps.
Lol I remember being mad a week ago about how things turned out but if they can suffocate Connor mcdavid then ... It can happen to anyone?
The first buyout window opens 48 hours after the SC is won - which the way things are doing could be in less than a week.
Of the 9 players the only noteworthy ones:
Pierre Luc Dubois - MTL dodged a bullet/freight train by not trading for and extending PLD. What a disaster he has been. If they buy him out this off-season they are just on the hook for 1/3 of the total owed since he is not yet 26. If they want until June 24th or later (when he turns 26) they're on the hook for 2/3rds. GM's (Rob Blake in this case) don't like to admit they were wrong, so I doubt they do it, but I can see it making sense.
Barclay Goodrow - I think this is more of the player not matching their contract than Goodrow being a bad player. from the link...
Jean-Gabriel Pageau - per the article - more likely to be traded, but buyout is not out of the question.
the rest are not interesting, except Cam Atkinson, but he's mostly interesting b/c I see him being in demand if he's bought out (and healthy). Maybe PLD too, but PLD might have played himself out of a good contract.
link - ( New Window )
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In comment 16534761 Route 9 said:
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I think the last sweep in the NHL finals was the Red Wings? 1998?
Correct.
I think FL sweeps.
Lol I remember being mad a week ago about how things turned out but if they can suffocate Connor mcdavid then ... It can happen to anyone?
I'm still mad. I think it's the Rangers winning it all if Fox didn't get hurt.
Hate to say it of a player in the player assistance program, but I wouldn't touch him. Let someone else allow him to re-establish his value.
In fact, I'd even rather have Pierre Luc Dubois (assuming he's bought out).
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Hate to say it of a player in the player assistance program, but I wouldn't touch him. Let someone else allow him to re-establish his value.
In fact, I'd even rather have Pierre Luc Dubois (assuming he's bought out).
Trouba for Laine? (I'm only half kidding)
A must-win if there ever was one.
Nurse expected to play. If he was ever a NYR Anakim would be dead of an aneurysm. Gets paid more than Trouba and is half the player.
I don't know if Nurse playing is a good thing or not, but with as physical as Florida F's are, they need 6 D. Nurse and Ceci are getting destroyed though and I'm not sure they're even playing the "hard minutes".
But...the real story is EDM power play. They're drawing penalties, just not scoring, if that doesn't change this series is over, and it might be already.
Anything?
Anything?
FLA is not even dominating zone time. You have PTSD from the Rangers series. EDM leads in CF%.
EDM leads in expected goals for, EDM leads in scoring chances, EDM leads in high danger chances, this is not the Rangers Panthers series where Igor kept it close. This is closer to the reverse but where FLA has Igor in net.
EDM is shooting less than 2%.
They have to score on the PP, hate to say it because it's goonish, but I'd even have Corey Perry dress for the sole purpose to get in Bobrovsky's jersey and be a little physical in there. Get him off his game - and if you think for a second NHL players don't do this you're crazy.
Anyway, EDM is competitive everywhere in this series, except where it matters....on the scoreboard.
So, my baby step that would make a difference is the PP. if EDM was 25% on the PP this series is split.
ex-Sacred Heart and Curry College player
probably good to have a young coach for Celebrini, etc.
He has a sports hernia and has been a complete zero in this series, so might be addition by subtraction but fans like to think sometimes players are plug n play. Like all the whining about why didn't the Rangers play Zac Jones? Not saying coaches are always right, but it's clear the coaches play the players who they feel give them the best chance to win. And so far for the Oilers it's been a less than 100% Evander Kane over all other options.
I read they may even just opt to go 11 forwards and 7 D because of the Nurse injury and personnel on D.
I would do that and alternate McDavid and Draisaitl on the 3rd line.
Does it matter? This series is over.
they are up 3-0 so it's hard to argue anything otherwise, however, if you believe in analytics, the Panthers only "deserved" to win game 2.
They base this factor om multiple things like scoring chances, expected goals, etc. and game 1 EDM won 90% of the time, and game 3 they won over 60% of the time with those metrics over 1,000 game simulations each.
The lost game 2 by a wide margin, but what this means is they are outplaying FLA (in game 1 and 3 at least) but still losing.
As many have pointed to the goalie is the difference.
Does that mean FLA is better? Sure in superficial terms and analysis - a goalie is part of the team, but the data says it's unusual for FLA to win games 1 and 3 when the teams play how they did.
In the end it means nothing, one team hoists Lord Stanley, the other cries and spends all summer wondering where it went wrong and they are not comforted by Moneypuck.com's deserve-o-meter suggesting they should have had a different outcome, but it also doesn't change those details.
Analytics are great for stat geeks but I believe the better and deeper team is the Panthers.Wins is the greatest stat imv.
I also feel the Panthers took their foot off the pedal a bit in the third period with the respect to their checking game and the Oilers responded accordingly.
A good learning moment for the Panthers.
people wondered, how will the Oilers handle the Panthers ferocious forecheck. They haven't been great at it, especially Nurse and Ekholkm who are struggling with it, but that's hasn't been a problem overall. They can't solve Bobrovsky and that is the story in the series. The PP is the epitome of why they will lose.
As for the FLA PK and this is true of the Rangers series as well, there is a saying, you need your goalie to be your best penalty killer and I 100% think that's what we're seeing here.
FLA PK was good in the regular season, but not this good. Bobrovsky is just playing at another level right now. I once thought I'd never see a goalie outplay Tim Thomas in the playoffs when the Bruins won in 2011 (no offense Dominik Hasek who did it repeatedly but not in this century). Granted Bobrovsky isn't as un-orthodox and acrobatic with highlight reel saves as Thomas was, but he's almost as effective.