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Are the 2024 Giants really going to be that bad?

gidiefor : Mod : 6/10/2024 10:33 am
Quote:
...we discussed a method used by Kevin Cole of the blog Unexpected Points to assess how much a given addition to a team improves that team’s expected points added (EPA) relative to a generic replacement-level player. The approach uses a “Plus/Minus” metric that estimates how well a particular player has performed relative to the typical player in his “type,” where “type” is not just the position he plays but how he is used as defined by various standard NFL statistics (e.g., primarily slot vs. primarily wide receivers, but also number of routes, yards per route, etc.).

.....

Not surprisingly, the Washington Commanders’ selection of quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick in the draft is scored as the most consequential addition in the division. The Giants do pretty well, with a lot of high-value additions, including the second (Jermaine Eluemunor), third (Brian Burns), and fifth (Jon Runyan Jr.) most valuable players on the list — notice also that Aaron Stinnie is No. 12 even though he is not projected to start.

Malik Nabers is also there, at No. 11, the second-highest rookie in the division, but you may be surprised to find him only just above Stinnie rather than being closer to the top. That’s because even “replacement-level” receivers do some good things and at worst are mostly ignored in favor of the better receivers on the team, having little effect on expected points while “replacement-level” offensive linemen can be directly responsible for plays being blown up by the defense and contributing negative expected points (due to sacks, losses on runs, etc.). Saquon Barkley was the only Giant lost to a division team but his Plus/Minus impact on Philadelphia is less than those of Eluemunor and Runyan for the Giants. That’s not a knock on Barkley, but rather a reflection of the fact that in today’s NFL value system, OL > RB.

Cole also calculates an “Improvement Index” for each team based on the players it has gained vs. lost. The Improvement Index per player added is based on the same Plus/Minus concept, with weighting by things like projected playing time, opponents, etc., but with one other major factor: The estimated improvement is relative to the player being replaced rather than a generic replacement level player. Cole doesn’t say, but the 2023 players being replaced on the Giants’ OL in 2024 might have been worse than the generic replacement-level offensive line on many teams. ....

- Much more linked in article below including the effect of the coaching carousel in the NFE which is extensive this year-

Personnel upgrades suggest otherwise - ( New Window )
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RE: It's never as bad as the pundits  
Gatorade Dunk : 6/10/2024 11:21 am : link
In comment 16533850 barens said:
Quote:
make it out to be.And that goes for every team, including Carolina.

Never is a strong word, especially considering how much worse we saw the Giants be last year relative to the expectations at the time from those same pundits (same goes for Carolina, incidentally). So to say "it's never as bad as the pundits make it out to be" seems false, IMO. Sometimes the pundits are correct in their negativity. Sometimes they're not negative enough. And sometimes, as you note, it's not as bad as they predict.

But it's not never as bad. It's often as bad and sometimes worse.
I don't think that they will be worse than last season.  
compton : 6/10/2024 11:21 am : link
Last season is the floor. The offensive line and QB play will determine if the Giants finish above .500.
this is the key chart  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 11:24 am : link
as important as the nyg adding, dallas and phi being at the bottom is perhaps more consequential - and both pass the sniff test. dallas has hardly made any moves this offseason because of their cap situation and lost tyron/biadasz/pollard/others. philly lost kelce/cox/reddick among others after already feeling the impacts of having lost hargraves and others from the SB team in 2022.

Did everyone on the Ravens secretly die?  
Jerry in_DC : 6/10/2024 11:28 am : link
..
There's losing 11 games by an average of 12 points, and  
Marty in Albany : 6/10/2024 11:30 am : link
losing 11 games by an average of 3 points. Neither will make anybody happy, but 3 point average losses indicate an improvement over last year.

Furthermore, a loss where the other team is just better than you are is watchable. A loss that is the result of your own numerous and pathetic mistakes is not watchable.
Until  
Go Giants : 6/10/2024 11:31 am : link
Proven otherwise , yes.
RE: Did everyone on the Ravens secretly die?  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 11:31 am : link
In comment 16533869 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
..


lost 2 starting OL, queen, and a bunch of depth guys. pretty much only gained henry.

No...  
4xchamps : 6/10/2024 11:33 am : link
Improved OL, improved WR group, better pass rush, better oline coach....

10-7
That "improvement index" is more somebody's opinion than it is a  
Marty in Albany : 6/10/2024 11:46 am : link
statical analysis.

It's nice that somebody thinks we've improved, but they don't actually predict any increase in wins over last season.
Statical analysis = Statistical analysis  
Marty in Albany : 6/10/2024 11:47 am : link
sorry.
RE: this is the key chart  
Go Terps : 6/10/2024 12:02 pm : link
In comment 16533868 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
as important as the nyg adding, dallas and phi being at the bottom is perhaps more consequential - and both pass the sniff test. dallas has hardly made any moves this offseason because of their cap situation and lost tyron/biadasz/pollard/others. philly lost kelce/cox/reddick among others after already feeling the impacts of having lost hargraves and others from the SB team in 2022.



2023 point differential:

Baltimore +203
NYG -141

2024 point differential (based on chart):

Baltimore +128
NYG -121

For scale, in 2023 the closest team to +128 was Buffalo (+140, 11-6 record). Closest to -121 was Arizona (-125, 4-13 record).

So Baltimore is still good, Giants still stink.
Doesn’t show up in player analysis  
Pepe LePugh : 6/10/2024 12:03 pm : link
but the biggest improvements this year may be Bricillo, Bowen, and Ghobrial.
RE: RE: this is the key chart  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 12:09 pm : link
In comment 16533897 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16533868 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


as important as the nyg adding, dallas and phi being at the bottom is perhaps more consequential - and both pass the sniff test. dallas has hardly made any moves this offseason because of their cap situation and lost tyron/biadasz/pollard/others. philly lost kelce/cox/reddick among others after already feeling the impacts of having lost hargraves and others from the SB team in 2022.





2023 point differential:

Baltimore +203
NYG -141

2024 point differential (based on chart):

Baltimore +128
NYG -121

For scale, in 2023 the closest team to +128 was Buffalo (+140, 11-6 record). Closest to -121 was Arizona (-125, 4-13 record).

So Baltimore is still good, Giants still stink.


not at all how the methodology should be used and nowhere did anyone say this means nyg > bal, but whatever floats your misery porn boat i suppose.
We've definitely improved in some areas, but we're missing some of our  
Ira : 6/10/2024 12:12 pm : link
better players from previous seasons including Barkley,Xman, Leo and A'Shawn Robinson.

So, it depends on how the new players and rookies step up and how the younger players improve. I think we'll be somewhat better - maybe a middle of the pack team.
The club of abysmal teams  
gridirony : 6/10/2024 12:14 pm : link
is a large one. The Giants are part of that club. On any given Sunday about 26 of the 32 teams can easily gift a win to the other team.

Having an adequate OL, and having few on-field mistakes are the keys. Mistakes beget more mistakes, and losing begets more losing. The one thing that I do not expect is getting blown out to start the season, like last year.
RE: Doesn’t show up in player analysis  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 12:14 pm : link
In comment 16533898 Pepe LePugh said:
Quote:
but the biggest improvements this year may be Bricillo, Bowen, and Ghobrial.


correct, in 2022 the nyg were -6 with basically 0 injuries and everything going right.

in 2023 with a more talented roster obviously everything went wrong so the results were very bad, but the coaches who were replaced by the guys you named were a big part of the things that went wrong.

8 teams were + point differential in the NFC last year, and the lowest of them was Philly at just +5. If we were identifying 1 non-W/L stat for the season to grade Daboll on, it is probably getting his first positive point differential. If he does that they will be in the WC race.
How should it be used?  
Go Terps : 6/10/2024 12:15 pm : link
My interpretation is that it's looking at point differential compared to 2023. Is that not accurate?
You are going to get a bunch of different answers  
UberAlias : 6/10/2024 12:23 pm : link
Depending on which set of facts people chose to focus on and what outcomes they are anticipating on the various unknowns. I will say I've run into my share of disagreements, mostly with folks on the pessimistic side who are extremely confident in negative outcome. And while I can acknowledge validity in the arguments, there are legitimate counter arguments as well which I would not be so quick to dismiss.
RE: How should it be used?  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 12:29 pm : link
In comment 16533909 Go Terps said:
Quote:
My interpretation is that it's looking at point differential compared to 2023. Is that not accurate?


there's a reason it's called an offseason index. it is aggregate point differentials of a specific set of players lost/gained and predicted snaps going forward. relating it back to full team point differentials from the year prior where real snaps played are obviously going to be very different from expected is apples/oranges.
I think a season comes down to 3 huge factors  
JT039 : 6/10/2024 12:29 pm : link
1. Health
2. Development
3. Luck

When it comes to 1 and 2 - the Giants have been miserable for nearly a decade. It would be nice to be as healthy as possible (everyone has their injuries, so you do expect them). But #2 is something the organization HAS to be better at immediately.

number 3 is usually out of our hands. But some lucky bounces, a penalty that sways our way, a mishap by the othe team, etc.. would sure be beneficial for us this year.
That chart shows how useless some of them truly are.  
Dave in Hoboken : 6/10/2024 12:35 pm : link
Jesus.
RE: I think a season comes down to 3 huge factors  
Sec 103 : 6/10/2024 12:40 pm : link
In comment 16533918 JT039 said:
Quote:
1. Health
2. Development
3. Luck

When it comes to 1 and 2 - the Giants have been miserable for nearly a decade. It would be nice to be as healthy as possible (everyone has their injuries, so you do expect them). But #2 is something the organization HAS to be better at immediately.

number 3 is usually out of our hands. But some lucky bounces, a penalty that sways our way, a mishap by the othe team, etc.. would sure be beneficial for us this year.


The health lady has treated us very badly for quite some time now.
Great post!
Here's the improvement index going into the 2023 season  
Go Terps : 6/10/2024 12:49 pm : link




RE: I think a season comes down to 3 huge factors  
eric2425ny : 6/10/2024 12:52 pm : link
In comment 16533918 JT039 said:
Quote:
1. Health
2. Development
3. Luck

When it comes to 1 and 2 - the Giants have been miserable for nearly a decade. It would be nice to be as healthy as possible (everyone has their injuries, so you do expect them). But #2 is something the organization HAS to be better at immediately.

number 3 is usually out of our hands. But some lucky bounces, a penalty that sways our way, a mishap by the othe team, etc.. would sure be beneficial for us this year.


100% agree with this post. In terms of development, Neal to me could have the biggest impact on this teams success in 2024.

But Schoen was smart to bring in Eleumenor who can easily take over at RT with either Neal or Stinnie at RG if Neal can’t hack it at RT again.
Terps  
Pepe LePugh : 6/10/2024 12:57 pm : link
Am I reading that right? As of March 17, so before the 2023 draft?
RE: Terps  
Go Terps : 6/10/2024 1:01 pm : link
In comment 16533932 Pepe LePugh said:
Quote:
Am I reading that right? As of March 17, so before the 2023 draft?


Good point. Here it is in May 2023 after the draft.

2024  
Highlander : 6/10/2024 1:02 pm : link
I am optimistic that the 2024 season is when the Giants truly turn the corner and begin to receive a positive return on the investments the team has made in recent drafts and free agency acquisitions. Overall, JS and the front office have done a solid job of turning the roster over. I really like the talent on the defensive side of the ball. I'm especially looking forward to seeing how the players execute in new DC Shane Bowen's system. Offensively, OL play will improve. It can't get any worse. The OL was historically bad last year. #8 better step up if he wants to remain the starting QB of the NY Football Giants. I certainly hope he has a productive and impactful seasoning 2024, but I, unfortunately, have my doubts. It's easy to root for him because it appears that he has an exceptional work ethic and is a great teammate. However, I've never read more about a player who works so hard and prepares so well, yet gets such average to below average results on gameday. He has been a turnover machine most of his career and doesn't seem to read defenses well. In a QB-centric league, I just don't see him as a franchise QB in today's NFL. I hope he proves me wrong in 2024. If the Giants make the playoffs in 2024, it will likely be primarily due to high-level play on the defensive side of the ball and vastly improved special teams play (similar to the 2016 season). #97, #25, #58, #5, #0 and #27 need to remain healthy throughout the season to give this team a fighting chance. But going back to #8, as a fan, I don't want to hear any more excuses for why he can't lead the team to more wins and not elevating the play of everyone one around him. Up to this point, many fans blame the OL and lack of talent at the WR position for why #8 hasn't met expectations as a $6 overall draft pick. Yes, they are valid points. The OL play has been pretty bad and the Giants have not had a stud WR since OBJ was traded to Cleveland. That being said, elite QBs still find a way to sustain drives and get points on the board. That is what starting QBs making $40M or more a year are paid to do! Why is it that younger QBs without an elite supporting cast are out performing him? CJ Stroud, Jordan Stroud, and Trevor Lawrence quickly come to mind.

In addition to my concerns about #8, BD better have the team ready to go come Week 1. One would think that he captured some valuable lessons learned from last year's terrible start. Last year's piss poor start rests with the head coach. There is no excuse for the week 1 40-0 home loss to Dallas last year. That was absolutely horrendous.
RE: Here's the improvement index going into the 2023 season  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 1:02 pm : link
In comment 16533926 Go Terps said:
Quote:





i assume your point is that this index correctly identified houston?

2022 point differential = -131
2023 offseason index = +40
2023 actual point differential improvement = +155

hmm almost like even when the offseason index is directionally correct as it was with houston the numbers don't work at all in the way you are trying to use them.

last year's index also correctly identified philly's regression, except they didnt regress by -40 points, they regressed by 128 points in point differential.

that's the weighting issue of projected vs real snaps (plus other factors, mainly coaching/player development) that makes these numbers apples/oranges. those are the force multipliers that take rosters often very comparable in talent to wider variance outcomes.
RE: RE: Terps  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 1:05 pm : link
In comment 16533934 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16533932 Pepe LePugh said:


Quote:


Am I reading that right? As of March 17, so before the 2023 draft?



Good point. Here it is in May 2023 after the draft.



im pretty sure the draft only changes the improvement index slightly w/ the net of points from traded picks and possible implied positional value. i think he typically factors draft picks in as their points value based on slots so the changes w/ HOU and NYJ were likely from their trade ups.
rodgers also for jets  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 1:06 pm : link
forgot that didnt get done until april.
RE: RE: It's never as bad as the pundits  
barens : 6/10/2024 1:09 pm : link
In comment 16533862 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 16533850 barens said:


Quote:


make it out to be.And that goes for every team, including Carolina.


Never is a strong word, especially considering how much worse we saw the Giants be last year relative to the expectations at the time from those same pundits (same goes for Carolina, incidentally). So to say "it's never as bad as the pundits make it out to be" seems false, IMO. Sometimes the pundits are correct in their negativity. Sometimes they're not negative enough. And sometimes, as you note, it's not as bad as they predict.

But it's not never as bad. It's often as bad and sometimes worse.


Fair enough.
RE: RE: Here's the improvement index going into the 2023 season  
Go Terps : 6/10/2024 1:10 pm : link
In comment 16533936 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16533926 Go Terps said:


Quote:









i assume your point is that this index correctly identified houston?

2022 point differential = -131
2023 offseason index = +40
2023 actual point differential improvement = +155

hmm almost like even when the offseason index is directionally correct as it was with houston the numbers don't work at all in the way you are trying to use them.

last year's index also correctly identified philly's regression, except they didnt regress by -40 points, they regressed by 128 points in point differential.

that's the weighting issue of projected vs real snaps (plus other factors, mainly coaching/player development) that makes these numbers apples/oranges. those are the force multipliers that take rosters often very comparable in talent to wider variance outcomes.


I didn't have a point in posting it. This is my first encounter with this data and I'm just trying to get a sense of it. My initial reaction is that the good teams seem to be on the bottom, and the poorer teams at the top. Without really researching it that makes sense: the NFL is designed to improve bad teams and worsen good teams.
I think the roster is much improved  
Chris684 : 6/10/2024 1:14 pm : link
so no, I don't think they'll be THAT bad. I just think they'll still be mediocre. If I had to guess, I'd say 7 or 8 wins.

Jones will either be ineffective or he'll get hurt again. Drew Lock stinks. As a side note, I'd prefer to give this season to Tommy DeVito and se what he can do with it start to finish.

So, QB is still a question mark, as is OL with this team until proven otherwise. We've brought in OL reinforcements before, only to laugh at them in hindsight.
RE: RE: RE: Here's the improvement index going into the 2023 season  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 1:25 pm : link
In comment 16533942 Go Terps said:
Quote:




I didn't have a point in posting it. This is my first encounter with this data and I'm just trying to get a sense of it. My initial reaction is that the good teams seem to be on the bottom, and the poorer teams at the top. Without really researching it that makes sense: the NFL is designed to improve bad teams and worsen good teams.


im reasonably familiar with it and have posted some more details on the methodology 3 months ago - Kevin Cole is generally really good and he has some good archived articles on PFF explaining his metrics uses and limitations.

i personally am more partial to straight asset appraisal like this because it is a lot simpler (more money, more high draft picks should = improvement). i think this was basically PFF's replacement for what Kevin did when he was writing there - https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-teams-2024-offseason-resources-cap-space-2024-nfl-draft

i think the biggest limitation on the type of model kevin created (beyond disagreeing with a few things in his methodology) is the exact inference you tried to make. they can/should be directionally predictive but clearly not specifically. and to your point good coaches/organizations consistently get more out of less because they draft and develop well enough to sustain losing players because of the cap (baltimore being the best example of that).
NYG rank 4th in offseason improvement index Eric on Li 3/27/2024 4:57 pm - ( New Window )
.  
Go Terps : 6/10/2024 1:40 pm : link
To answer the fundamental question in the OP, though, how bad the Giants are will depend on injury luck and bounces of the ball. If everything goes their way like it did in 2022, they could win 9-10 games. If they have really bad luck they could win 3-4 games. If that averages out they probably win 6-8 games. How to interpret that is subjective - some might see it as progress, some might be alarmed.

What you won't see anywhere is anyone objectively saying the Giants will win 11+ games and/or compete for the Super Bowl. Again, given where they are in their roster build some might find that alarming.
RE: .  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 1:50 pm : link
In comment 16533965 Go Terps said:
Quote:
To answer the fundamental question in the OP, though, how bad the Giants are will depend on injury luck and bounces of the ball. If everything goes their way like it did in 2022, they could win 9-10 games. If they have really bad luck they could win 3-4 games. If that averages out they probably win 6-8 games. How to interpret that is subjective - some might see it as progress, some might be alarmed.

What you won't see anywhere is anyone objectively saying the Giants will win 11+ games and/or compete for the Super Bowl. Again, given where they are in their roster build some might find that alarming.


that's mostly fair. im not sure what luck could be so much worse than thomas getting hurt on blocked kick td return the first drive of the year that they win half as many games as last year, but that aside the comment i replied to in this thread was simply that the way you were trying to use this metric was wrong. it seems we both agree with the metric that the expectation should be that this year's team clearly improves?
RE: .  
gersh : 6/10/2024 2:00 pm : link
In comment 16533965 Go Terps said:
Quote:
To answer the fundamental question in the OP, though, how bad the Giants are will depend on injury luck and bounces of the ball. If everything goes their way like it did in 2022, they could win 9-10 games. If they have really bad luck they could win 3-4 games. If that averages out they probably win 6-8 games. How to interpret that is subjective - some might see it as progress, some might be alarmed.

What you won't see anywhere is anyone objectively saying the Giants will win 11+ games and/or compete for the Super Bowl. Again, given where they are in their roster build some might find that alarming.

Agreed
So...we may see a playoff game or a top 3 pick for a new QB
That's exciting...?
RE: RE: .  
Go Terps : 6/10/2024 2:00 pm : link
In comment 16533981 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16533965 Go Terps said:


Quote:


To answer the fundamental question in the OP, though, how bad the Giants are will depend on injury luck and bounces of the ball. If everything goes their way like it did in 2022, they could win 9-10 games. If they have really bad luck they could win 3-4 games. If that averages out they probably win 6-8 games. How to interpret that is subjective - some might see it as progress, some might be alarmed.

What you won't see anywhere is anyone objectively saying the Giants will win 11+ games and/or compete for the Super Bowl. Again, given where they are in their roster build some might find that alarming.



that's mostly fair. im not sure what luck could be so much worse than thomas getting hurt on blocked kick td return the first drive of the year that they win half as many games as last year, but that aside the comment i replied to in this thread was simply that the way you were trying to use this metric was wrong. it seems we both agree with the metric that the expectation should be that this year's team clearly improves?


That should absolutely be the expectation. I think the expectation should be to fight for the division, get to the playoffs, and be a legit threat to get to the NFC title game.
Are the Giants going to get  
BigBlueBuff : 6/10/2024 2:08 pm : link
even replacement level play from the quarterback position? If not, then they'll continue to be terrible. It's pretty simple.
RE: RE: RE: .  
Eric on Li : 6/10/2024 2:18 pm : link
In comment 16533996 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16533981 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16533965 Go Terps said:


Quote:


To answer the fundamental question in the OP, though, how bad the Giants are will depend on injury luck and bounces of the ball. If everything goes their way like it did in 2022, they could win 9-10 games. If they have really bad luck they could win 3-4 games. If that averages out they probably win 6-8 games. How to interpret that is subjective - some might see it as progress, some might be alarmed.

What you won't see anywhere is anyone objectively saying the Giants will win 11+ games and/or compete for the Super Bowl. Again, given where they are in their roster build some might find that alarming.



that's mostly fair. im not sure what luck could be so much worse than thomas getting hurt on blocked kick td return the first drive of the year that they win half as many games as last year, but that aside the comment i replied to in this thread was simply that the way you were trying to use this metric was wrong. it seems we both agree with the metric that the expectation should be that this year's team clearly improves?



That should absolutely be the expectation. I think the expectation should be to fight for the division, get to the playoffs, and be a legit threat to get to the NFC title game.


they got 1 game away from that unexpectedly in year 1. i think the expectation you laid out probably isn't so far from what the expectation was/should have been last year.

it obviously didn't work out last year but i think most agree daboll deserved another chance, i personally dont see any case to lower expectations of what we should expect him to be able to do. 1 good year, 1 bad year, year 3 is the tie breaker. im rooting for a dan campbell/brad holmes year 3. they entered last year owning a 12-21-1 record.
Some good thoughts in this thread  
Lines of Scrimmage : 6/10/2024 3:30 pm : link
Health is always a big part especially when you lose key guys.

OL questions. Will the D stop the run? Will they get better rushing production from the RB's? The running game fell off big last season. Pass game should have more pop.

I think a good start is critical this year. Another slow start and I think it can get ugly fast.

I see the Ravens falling off. They had just about everything last season to close the deal. Then LJ came up small again.
Yes. This may be the worst year in the Super Bowl Era for this team  
The Mike : 6/10/2024 3:45 pm : link
Until proven otherwise, the QB, OL, TEs and RBs are arguably the worst collection of offensive players in the entire NFL. The WRs are strong, but their talent will be a waste given the weak links all around them. And the defense should be respectable, but they will be unable to overcome the deficiencies on offense.

In today's NFL, time of possession is a critical determinant of success. And I believe the Giants will be dead last this year because of an inability to run the ball. Opposing defenses will simply stack the line of scrimmage and take away DJ's first read. He will be a disaster trying to throw long and of course there will be no threat of DJ running this year because of his injury risk. Our defense could win some games with turnovers and stout play, but like 2017, it will more likely be that they get gassed early from being constantly on the field and are simply unable to make stops late in games.

The only possible chance I see of this being a playoff contender is if somehow Drew Lock makes a Daboll inspired leap and adds judgment and accuracy to his prodigious arm talent. That would be a game changer. Can Daboll do this? I doubt it. But he spun straw into gold two years ago - maybe he can do it again? If not, look for the Munich game to determine who the worst team in the NFL will be this year.
My feeling  
darren in pdx : 6/10/2024 4:33 pm : link
is that they will be bad. Huge hole at QB and depending on a ton of inexperienced players to develop fast. If they develop by mid to end of season the future will feel a little less bleak for everything surrounding the QB position. They can make the wild card depending if they can stay healthy enough and the new o-line coach can break a decade-long curse of ineptitude. There's too many if's and obvious holes for me to feel good about anything at the moment, the last decade has taught me to not be hopeful that anything will go right for this franchise. I'm expecting a 2 to 4 win season, I don't feel confident about any game on the schedule going into the season right now.
I had more hope in 2023 than I do now.  
George from PA : 6/10/2024 6:58 pm : link
I felt Neal and the OL had to improve.

The OL completely imploded and we know what happened.

I believe:

This team is much better than the 2023 version

Burns offers a ripple affect that improves several others.

Nabers also offers a ripple affect that improves several others.

If OL gets fixed...the Giants can succeed.

Jones is not that good, but he is not that bad, either. QBs are very dependent.



I'm expecting this team to be average - 8 or 9 wins. We're better than  
Ira : 6/10/2024 7:03 pm : link
last season, but not good enough the make a lot of noise.
Right now, I'd say they're going to be horrible.  
FStubbs : 6/10/2024 8:44 pm : link
The biggest reason why is that we finished with 6 wins last year with a +12 turnover ratio.

That's insane. A +12 turnover ratio means even our terrible record was vastly inflated over the true quality of the team.

Combine that with a much harder schedule this year, and this year - right now - isn't looking very good.
Looks like they have been on the right track...  
Brown_Hornet : 6/10/2024 8:57 pm : link
...with regards to adding talent.

I fully expect to get an enjoyable season.
RE: Right now, I'd say they're going to be horrible.  
Pepe LePugh : 6/10/2024 9:17 pm : link
In comment 16534261 FStubbs said:
Quote:
The biggest reason why is that we finished with 6 wins last year with a +12 turnover ratio.

That's insane. A +12 turnover ratio means even our terrible record was vastly inflated over the true quality of the team.

Combine that with a much harder schedule this year, and this year - right now - isn't looking very good.

Beg to differ re: “much harder schedule.”
Last year we played 5 vs. teams that ended up with 7 or fewer wins; 5 against 8-10 win teams; 7 vs. teams with 11+.
Based on last year’s finishes, our 24 opponents would break down to 5, 6, and 6. Not much difference.
No doubt there will be surprises. AFC North is a meat grinder, but NFC South doesn’t scare me and our division seems to have lost a bit at the top. I don’t see any reason to think there will be much change in the degree of difficulty.
RE: Right now, I'd say they're going to be horrible.  
Scooter185 : 6/10/2024 10:24 pm : link
In comment 16534261 FStubbs said:
Quote:
The biggest reason why is that we finished with 6 wins last year with a +12 turnover ratio.

That's insane. A +12 turnover ratio means even our terrible record was vastly inflated over the true quality of the team.

Combine that with a much harder schedule this year, and this year - right now - isn't looking very good.


And didn't they start the first 4 games without getting a turnover?
they are going to be mediocre  
BigBlueCane : 6/11/2024 4:20 am : link
which is worse.
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