Contact Info
Administration
Coaching Staff
Coaching History
Annual Records
Hall Of Fame
Retired Jerseys
Ring Of Honor
|
|
|
| Quote: |
| ...we discussed a method used by Kevin Cole of the blog Unexpected Points to assess how much a given addition to a team improves that team’s expected points added (EPA) relative to a generic replacement-level player. The approach uses a “Plus/Minus” metric that estimates how well a particular player has performed relative to the typical player in his “type,” where “type” is not just the position he plays but how he is used as defined by various standard NFL statistics (e.g., primarily slot vs. primarily wide receivers, but also number of routes, yards per route, etc.). ..... Not surprisingly, the Washington Commanders’ selection of quarterback Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick in the draft is scored as the most consequential addition in the division. The Giants do pretty well, with a lot of high-value additions, including the second (Jermaine Eluemunor), third (Brian Burns), and fifth (Jon Runyan Jr.) most valuable players on the list — notice also that Aaron Stinnie is No. 12 even though he is not projected to start. Malik Nabers is also there, at No. 11, the second-highest rookie in the division, but you may be surprised to find him only just above Stinnie rather than being closer to the top. That’s because even “replacement-level” receivers do some good things and at worst are mostly ignored in favor of the better receivers on the team, having little effect on expected points while “replacement-level” offensive linemen can be directly responsible for plays being blown up by the defense and contributing negative expected points (due to sacks, losses on runs, etc.). Saquon Barkley was the only Giant lost to a division team but his Plus/Minus impact on Philadelphia is less than those of Eluemunor and Runyan for the Giants. That’s not a knock on Barkley, but rather a reflection of the fact that in today’s NFL value system, OL > RB. Cole also calculates an “Improvement Index” for each team based on the players it has gained vs. lost. The Improvement Index per player added is based on the same Plus/Minus concept, with weighting by things like projected playing time, opponents, etc., but with one other major factor: The estimated improvement is relative to the player being replaced rather than a generic replacement level player. Cole doesn’t say, but the 2023 players being replaced on the Giants’ OL in 2024 might have been worse than the generic replacement-level offensive line on many teams. .... - Much more linked in article below including the effect of the coaching carousel in the NFE which is extensive this year- |
Quote:
In comment 16533965 Go Terps said:
Quote:
To answer the fundamental question in the OP, though, how bad the Giants are will depend on injury luck and bounces of the ball. If everything goes their way like it did in 2022, they could win 9-10 games. If they have really bad luck they could win 3-4 games. If that averages out they probably win 6-8 games. How to interpret that is subjective - some might see it as progress, some might be alarmed.
What you won't see anywhere is anyone objectively saying the Giants will win 11+ games and/or compete for the Super Bowl. Again, given where they are in their roster build some might find that alarming.
that's mostly fair. im not sure what luck could be so much worse than thomas getting hurt on blocked kick td return the first drive of the year that they win half as many games as last year, but that aside the comment i replied to in this thread was simply that the way you were trying to use this metric was wrong. it seems we both agree with the metric that the expectation should be that this year's team clearly improves?
That should absolutely be the expectation. I think the expectation should be to fight for the division, get to the playoffs, and be a legit threat to get to the NFC title game.
they got 1 game away from that unexpectedly in year 1. i think the expectation you laid out probably isn't so far from what the expectation was/should have been last year.
it obviously didn't work out last year but i think most agree daboll deserved another chance, i personally dont see any case to lower expectations of what we should expect him to be able to do. 1 good year, 1 bad year, year 3 is the tie breaker. im rooting for a dan campbell/brad holmes year 3. they entered last year owning a 12-21-1 record.
OL questions. Will the D stop the run? Will they get better rushing production from the RB's? The running game fell off big last season. Pass game should have more pop.
I think a good start is critical this year. Another slow start and I think it can get ugly fast.
I see the Ravens falling off. They had just about everything last season to close the deal. Then LJ came up small again.
In today's NFL, time of possession is a critical determinant of success. And I believe the Giants will be dead last this year because of an inability to run the ball. Opposing defenses will simply stack the line of scrimmage and take away DJ's first read. He will be a disaster trying to throw long and of course there will be no threat of DJ running this year because of his injury risk. Our defense could win some games with turnovers and stout play, but like 2017, it will more likely be that they get gassed early from being constantly on the field and are simply unable to make stops late in games.
The only possible chance I see of this being a playoff contender is if somehow Drew Lock makes a Daboll inspired leap and adds judgment and accuracy to his prodigious arm talent. That would be a game changer. Can Daboll do this? I doubt it. But he spun straw into gold two years ago - maybe he can do it again? If not, look for the Munich game to determine who the worst team in the NFL will be this year.
The OL completely imploded and we know what happened.
I believe:
This team is much better than the 2023 version
Burns offers a ripple affect that improves several others.
Nabers also offers a ripple affect that improves several others.
If OL gets fixed...the Giants can succeed.
Jones is not that good, but he is not that bad, either. QBs are very dependent.
That's insane. A +12 turnover ratio means even our terrible record was vastly inflated over the true quality of the team.
Combine that with a much harder schedule this year, and this year - right now - isn't looking very good.
I fully expect to get an enjoyable season.
That's insane. A +12 turnover ratio means even our terrible record was vastly inflated over the true quality of the team.
Combine that with a much harder schedule this year, and this year - right now - isn't looking very good.
Beg to differ re: “much harder schedule.”
Last year we played 5 vs. teams that ended up with 7 or fewer wins; 5 against 8-10 win teams; 7 vs. teams with 11+.
Based on last year’s finishes, our 24 opponents would break down to 5, 6, and 6. Not much difference.
No doubt there will be surprises. AFC North is a meat grinder, but NFC South doesn’t scare me and our division seems to have lost a bit at the top. I don’t see any reason to think there will be much change in the degree of difficulty.
That's insane. A +12 turnover ratio means even our terrible record was vastly inflated over the true quality of the team.
Combine that with a much harder schedule this year, and this year - right now - isn't looking very good.
And didn't they start the first 4 games without getting a turnover?