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Are the Giants a year away from breaking through?

CMicks3110 : 6/10/2024 9:44 pm
Are the Giants finally nearing the opening of a winning window? The last big reset for the team was back in 2018 when we hired Gettleman. Remember when we decided to keep Eli and draft Barkley instead of taking a trade from Denver and planning for the future? We signed stopgaps like Solder, Omameh, Golden Tate, and Connor Barwin, traded JPP, and got Alec Ogletree instead of strengthening our edge. Oh, and we wasted a third-round pick on Sam Beal.

In 2018, our young core was basically just Beckham and Barkley. We had a few solid starters like Tomlinson and Shepard, but the rest were veterans on their last legs—Manning, Jenkins, Vernon, Snacks—and some busts who never developed with us but did elsewhere (Engram, Hernandez) or just plain busts (Flowers, Apple).

By 2019, Gettleman admitted his mistakes, but we still had no clear window. Our roster was still weak, though we did start getting some core players like Dexter Lawrence and Darius Slayton, with Jones maybe pulling a Phil Simms turnaround. The 2020 draft was a bright spot, bringing in guys like Thomas, Martinez, Bradberry, Logan Ryan, and McKinney when healthy. But the 2021 draft was a disaster, leaving us with just Azeez.

Heading into 2022, we finally started building young depth. Even with Neal looking like a bust, we got contributors like Kayvon, Flott, Bellinger, Wan'Dale, Belton, McFadden, and Davidson. Plus, we had in-season pickups like Hodgins, and in 2023, promising rookies like Banks, JMS, and Hyatt, and a great free agent linebacker in Okereke. We also found gems through unconventional routes like Pinnock, DeVito, and Isaiah Simmons.

Looking to 2024, with a stud pass rusher in Brian Burns and a strong draft class including Nabers and Nubin, we’re finally seeing a critical mass of depth. Compared to the mess from 2018-21, we now have core players like Thomas, Dexter, Burns, Nabers, Okereke, and Banks, with potential stars like Kayvon, Wan'Dale, Azeez, and Hyatt, plus solid starters like Runyan, JMS, Bellinger, Elumanor, Pinnock, McFadden, and Slayton.

The key positions—QB, Edge, WR, DT, Guard, CB, Safety, LB, TE, RB—are mostly solid. My main concerns are Neal at RT, Flott at RCB, and, of course, the big question mark at QB with Daniel Jones.

So, here’s the big difference between 2018 and 2024: Age, athleticism, and raw talent. Our roster’s average age is around 26, and all our starters (except our kicker) are under 27 and should be here for at least three more years.

On top of that, Dallas is showing signs of decline with aging players and big contracts coming up, and the Eagles can’t rely on their veterans much longer. Their key players are slowing down or retiring soon.

Even though our cap space seems tight, we’re in good shape. We’ve got many players signed at reasonable rates and can free up space with cuts and restructures. By this time next year, we should have CB2, RT, and DT2 figured out, leaving us with one of the youngest, most promising teams in the league, ready to break through.
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Uber  
Mike from Ohio : 6/11/2024 5:26 pm : link
Your statement that the Giants had Nabers rated higher than Maye, but put Maye higher on the priority list because he is a QB is nothing but a complete guess on your part. Why is it not possible that they had Maye as one of the top 3 grades they had?

We can argue all day about what the Giants' plan was, but your argument begins with a premise with absolutely no basis - that Nabers was rated higher than Maye by the Giants.
RE: Uber  
UberAlias : 6/11/2024 5:33 pm : link
In comment 16534826 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
Your statement that the Giants had Nabers rated higher than Maye, but put Maye higher on the priority list because he is a QB is nothing but a complete guess on your part. Why is it not possible that they had Maye as one of the top 3 grades they had?


It's a reasonable assumption based on the overwhelming consensus and the tape the two put on film. If your point is that, positional value aside, they graded Maye higher than Nabers as a prospect independent of position, that is fine. But it would be contradictory to almost all evaluations I've seen.
Nabers  
Jerry in_DC : 6/11/2024 5:37 pm : link
Has a higher likelihood of being great/good/useful (whatever level you want) than any of the QBs, including the top 3. That's just the nature of the positions.

But at some point teams have to take the "risk" and go QB. Was this the right time to do it? I think so, but I could definitely be wrong about that.

I think the reaction is more about the past and future QB strategy than the #6 pick in particular. There hasn't been any competition for Daniel in the past. And if Daniel clears a very low bar in 2024, there is going to be a lot of momentum for Year 7 of this misery.

The #6 pick is very important. I get taking Nabers. The frustration, at least for me, is that the #6 pick is a significant symptom of the ineffective way that the Giants operate.

And really, it means one more guaranteed year of watching Jones and possibly more. People will react to that. It's just so painful to watch. And we just don't know when we're going to be free of him and have a chance to be good again.
What happened in the room  
Snorkels : 6/11/2024 5:42 pm : link
We'll probably never know exactly what went down in the Giants war room this year but a couple of thoughts. For starters one always wants to be careful not to conflate things. There has been a tendency to say, for example, that because the Giants may have tried to trade up for Maye they weren't looking to replace Jones. It may simply have been that they had a shot at someone they viewed as a potential elite prospect at the position and you don't often get shots at players like that; however, when he was gone they moved on. In fact, had they really wanted to replace Jones surely they would have taken someone either at 6 or at least somewhere in the draft.

Two, so much of the debate here focuses on the past, but in many ways it really doesn't matter what Jones did or did not do in the past. What matters do the Giants, who work with the guy every day, think that he has the tools to do what they want a QB to do in their system. Appears they do! In that context, I also suspect very much that this year's decision would have been very much Daboll's. Did he want to start over with a new QB or go forward and continue to try and build around Jones and it appears he chose the latter.

Will it work. Who knows. If it doesn't they move on. In fact next year it appears there may be a number of reasonably attractive veteran options that may be available either in free agency or via a trade. At the same time, even if the Giants don't end up with all that good a pick at the 2025 draft and that next year's QB isn't quite as strong as this year's, there also likely won't be as many teams at the top of the board looking for a QB so it may very well be easier to move up if that is what is needed.

Meanwhile, I say again, why don't we just play out this season and see how it goes.
RE: Those saying whether they are a year away depends on upgrading the QB  
Go Terps : 6/11/2024 5:45 pm : link
In comment 16534822 UberAlias said:
Quote:
I agree with that. Their not drafting a QB this year undoubtedly adds to the pressure for next year. I think if they have a chance to draft a prospect like one of the ones they had a shot at this year in next year's draft, they take them if they not in a position to take another blue chip prospect.


Not only did they not draft a QB in 2024; they have not drafted a QB anywhere in the 2022-2024 drafts. They have approached the position like they were set at all three spots on the depth chart despite inheriting (and maintaining over two seasons) one of the least productive QB rooms in the NFL.

This can't be said forcefully enough: Daniel Jones has been one of the least productive starting QBs in the NFL for five seasons and the Giants have drafted zero QBs since they picked him. This is irregular, unusual behavior: unproductive players are usually challenged if not replaced outright.

It begs the question: what has to happen for the Giants to draft a quarterback? To me it looks like:

1. There must be quarterback whose grade equals or exceeds the blue chip prospects at the high value (LT, WR, EDGE, CB) positions; AND
2. The Giants must be picking high enough to be able to draft this player

If those are the requirements (and I'm not even considering owner preferences on wanting their QB to be an Eli clone), then it could be a decade or longer before the conditions are right for them to finally take the plunge. And then once they finally do it appears they will give the draft pick 5+ years even if he doesn't perform well.

RE: What happened in the room  
Go Terps : 6/11/2024 5:48 pm : link
In comment 16534830 Snorkels said:
Quote:


Meanwhile, I say again, why don't we just play out this season and see how it goes.


No. We have been hearing that garbage for years. I remember people saying "let this play out" in 2019. Enough.
RE: What happened in the room  
Scooter185 : 6/11/2024 5:58 pm : link
In comment 16534830 Snorkels said:
Quote:
We'll probably never know exactly what went down in the Giants war room this year but a couple of thoughts. For starters one always wants to be careful not to conflate things. There has been a tendency to say, for example, that because the Giants may have tried to trade up for Maye they weren't looking to replace Jones. It may simply have been that they had a shot at someone they viewed as a potential elite prospect at the position and you don't often get shots at players like that; however, when he was gone they moved on. In fact, had they really wanted to replace Jones surely they would have taken someone either at 6 or at least somewhere in the draft.

Two, so much of the debate here focuses on the past, but in many ways it really doesn't matter what Jones did or did not do in the past. What matters do the Giants, who work with the guy every day, think that he has the tools to do what they want a QB to do in their system. Appears they do! In that context, I also suspect very much that this year's decision would have been very much Daboll's. Did he want to start over with a new QB or go forward and continue to try and build around Jones and it appears he chose the latter.

Will it work. Who knows. If it doesn't they move on. In fact next year it appears there may be a number of reasonably attractive veteran options that may be available either in free agency or via a trade. At the same time, even if the Giants don't end up with all that good a pick at the 2025 draft and that next year's QB isn't quite as strong as this year's, there also likely won't be as many teams at the top of the board looking for a QB so it may very well be easier to move up if that is what is needed.

Meanwhile, I say again, why don't we just play out this season and see how it goes.


If it doesn't work out they will be moving on from more than just Jones.
Terps  
UberAlias : 6/11/2024 6:10 pm : link
Drafting a QB isn't the only way to acquire players. They brought in two QBs via FA this year. QBs after the first round or two are are a real dart throw. They have 4 QBs on the roster, including a back up QB and two developmental prospects. You may not like the moves they've made, but they have made them.
Any QB is a dart throw  
Go Terps : 6/11/2024 6:25 pm : link
The problem is they aren't throwing any darts. And they certainly aren't throwing any (in the draft or FA) that could challenge Daniel. Drafting McCarthy or Penix obviously would have challenged him, but Jones is so poor that even Spencer Rattler (round 5), Jordan Travis (round 5), or Michael Pratt (round 7) could have been a threat by Halloween. Each of those 3 was drafted by a team that has a better starting QB than Jones. Are they just throwing darts and wasting draft picks?

The Giants' approach, given their situation and the rules of the sport, simply does not make sense. They are not being logical actors here.
RE: Any QB is a dart throw  
BrettNYG10 : 6/11/2024 6:32 pm : link
In comment 16534844 Go Terps said:
Quote:
The problem is they aren't throwing any darts. And they certainly aren't throwing any (in the draft or FA) that could challenge Daniel. Drafting McCarthy or Penix obviously would have challenged him, but Jones is so poor that even Spencer Rattler (round 5), Jordan Travis (round 5), or Michael Pratt (round 7) could have been a threat by Halloween. Each of those 3 was drafted by a team that has a better starting QB than Jones. Are they just throwing darts and wasting draft picks?

The Giants' approach, given their situation and the rules of the sport, simply does not make sense. They are not being logical actors here.


Patriots took Maye and Joe Milton, too. We should have done... something.
BTW  
UberAlias : 6/11/2024 6:58 pm : link
If I were Schoen, I would be working hard to acquire draft picks, even if it means dealing some players who can help the team. Not core players, but players who could get us some value at least in return. I don't expect that to happen, but I would be willing to take a step back in some areas on the current season if it can help us positions ourselves in next year's draft.
...  
christian : 6/11/2024 7:40 pm : link
In comment 16534830 Snorkels said:
Quote:
Meanwhile, I say again, why don't we just play out this season and see how it goes.

I beg of you to please answer me, it's killing me.

When you say we should let it play out, what does that mean to you? Does that mean we should stop discussing the team? Does that mean you think that when we discuss the team this is not letting it play out?

I'm genuinely curious.
RE: Any QB is a dart throw  
Sean : 6/11/2024 7:51 pm : link
In comment 16534844 Go Terps said:
Quote:
The problem is they aren't throwing any darts. And they certainly aren't throwing any (in the draft or FA) that could challenge Daniel. Drafting McCarthy or Penix obviously would have challenged him, but Jones is so poor that even Spencer Rattler (round 5), Jordan Travis (round 5), or Michael Pratt (round 7) could have been a threat by Halloween. Each of those 3 was drafted by a team that has a better starting QB than Jones. Are they just throwing darts and wasting draft picks?

The Giants' approach, given their situation and the rules of the sport, simply does not make sense. They are not being logical actors here.

I agree. Negligent is the word I use.
RE: Any QB is a dart throw  
Eric on Li : 6/11/2024 7:56 pm : link
In comment 16534844 Go Terps said:
Quote:
The problem is they aren't throwing any darts. And they certainly aren't throwing any (in the draft or FA) that could challenge Daniel. Drafting McCarthy or Penix obviously would have challenged him, but Jones is so poor that even Spencer Rattler (round 5), Jordan Travis (round 5), or Michael Pratt (round 7) could have been a threat by Halloween. Each of those 3 was drafted by a team that has a better starting QB than Jones. Are they just throwing darts and wasting draft picks?

The Giants' approach, given their situation and the rules of the sport, simply does not make sense. They are not being logical actors here.


slight push back on this - Lock was more of a dart throw than carrying tIRod for 2 years, and unless im forgetting someone Devito probably has shown more than any other non-first round qb in the last few years other than purdy (which is probably more than a dozen guys?). they have 3 qbs who are just a few years older than the super seniors in the '24 draft, and all 3 of them have had their moments in the nfl.

JJM is the only prospect they passed on that i have any regrets about.
vis a vis the thread the great thing about the nfl is nobody knows  
Eric on Li : 6/11/2024 8:03 pm : link
when 'breakthroughs' will occur. every year teams go worst to first and vice versa. injuries play a big part. QB performance plays a big part.

regardless of qb/injuries i think the overall roster should be past the tipping point of being a 'good' roster barring some kind of really bad injury luck. WR and front 7 in particular should be very good. per dollar there may not be a better WR room and while the DL is expensive, im not sure any team has 3 id trade burns/dex/thibs for.
you  
Giants4me : 6/11/2024 10:15 pm : link
can debate Jones vs Lock all you like. Even throw cutlets
in there. All of them are 25-32 in the NFL.
Nabers gets me excited.......the QB room not so much.
how can Nabers get you excited  
BigBlueCane : 6/12/2024 4:16 am : link
when there will issues getting him the ball?
Jones is the starter  
fkap : 6/12/2024 8:17 am : link
he's also not that well liked by the fans.

Doesn't matter how firm, or slippery, his grip on the job is. PR 101 says avoid QB controversy, so everything coming out of the Giants will tell us there is no controversy.

For all we know, Lock has been told he's in the running if Jones falters, but keep that info to himself.

Jones should be penciled in as the starter. And the public stance from the Giants should be that his starting role is not in jeopardy.
Giants can easily  
fkap : 6/12/2024 8:30 am : link
move to high of middle of the pack this year.

Moving to running with the big dogs at the top of the pack requires a QB.

Obviously, they didn't think JJM, Nix, or Penix were QBs that would get them running with the big dogs and that Nabers was too good to pass up for any of them. Some of you twist this simple concept into a statement of devotion to Jones.
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