For those who didn't read his QB preview thread, here are the 4:
1) He gets hurt again and the Giants look like idiots.
2) He performs poorly again and the Giants look like idiots.
3) He stays healthy and plays OK, but is clearly not elevating the team.
4) He stays healthy and has his best year, leaving a lot of people with egg on their face.
For all those who think I hate Jones with a passion-which I don't-I hope it is 4 & I'm eating crow. But I think I'm a realist & I'll say either scenario 1 or 2. Scenario #1 scares the shit out of me with that injury clause if he can't pass a physical next March.
Definitely.
Definitely.
If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience.
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2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise.
If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience.
You're hilarious.
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In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said:
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2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise.
If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience.
You're hilarious.
How am I hilarious? Was he healthy for a portion of 2023? Would you describe his play during those times he was healthy as solid, when he was below 30th in almost every meaningful passing metric?
Literally no one will say that. What will happen if Jones makes 17 starts and throws for 17 TD’s and 3,500 yds, averaging 6.5 YPA? My guess is the DJFC will be over the moon like you all were after 2022.
For the record, I wanted the Giants to trade up for Drake Maye but it wasn't meant to be.
The reality, is its far more likely to be 1 or 2, and if the OL is "adequate", he may hit #3. Just don't see the upside talent to hit 4 AND he may be so damaged mentally (Dave Carr syndrome), that even 3 is a stretch.
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He'll have his best year (though even if he throws 35 TDs and 4,500 yards plenty of BBIers will say he sucks --- in fact, they'll even contend 35/4,500 sucks in todays NFL.
Literally no one will say that. What will happen if Jones makes 17 starts and throws for 17 TD’s and 3,500 yds, averaging 6.5 YPA? My guess is the DJFC will be over the moon like you all were after 2022.
I suspect NO ONE, even the most hardcore DJ fan is going to be happy, never mind "over the moon" with those kind of stats.
It was acceptable in '22 because the gameplan was very conservative and our #1 WR was a PS guy signed off waivers around the middle of the season.
AND you could see the offense getting better towards the end of the season, despite the fact our #1 WR was a PS guy gotten off waivers in Nov. The team scored 38 the last meaningful reg season game (everyone seems to forget DJ got a standing ovation after scoring 4 TDs (2 passing, 2 rushing) to clinch the playoff berth) and then 31 on the road against a 13 win team (I don't want to hear the opposing defenses sucked, 'cause guess what, that's when you should score 30+ and they did, even with one of the worst receiving corps in the league).
We now have a stud named Nabers, a healthy Wan'Dale, a more experienced Hyatt (DJ barely had a healthy WD and neither of Nabers and Hyatt in '22) and hopefully an OL coach who knows what he's doing. The PS guy who we got off waivers in Nov., who became DJ's #1 WR in '22 might not make the roster this yr and if he does he'll be maybe the 5th or 6th WR.
See the difference?
He won't be able to stay on the field if he starts 2-5 or something like that.
I think it's telling that the MGM sportsbook has his TD over/under at 9.5. Outside of last year, he's always beaten that number even in seasons where he's been injured. This communicates to me that his leash isn't going to be very long.
See, I don't think him playing as the 13th best QB would be that bad. It would mean the Giants would actually be breaking even in value on the contract given where the QB market is going, and his contract hit will be lower in 2025. It would also provide evidence that his terrible 2023 was maybe an anamoly in the context of the Daboll era.
Maybe I've been beaten down by years of bad football, but DJ playing above average and the Giants getting 9 wins would be positive imv unless a couple of top prospects emerged in the 2024 QB class that the Giants would miss.
People are ragging on Trevor Lawrence. He's had some pretty bad situations, yet he has thrown over 4k yards his last 2 seasons (and he's only been in the league 3 seasons), over 20 TDs the last 2 seasons. And Y/A over 7.0 the last 2 seasons (an important baseline number that Jones has never attained). You can make a reasonable claim that 4500 yds and 35 TDs are within his ability. The same cannot be said of Jones.
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DJ can pass for 3,700 yards with 66% completion rate and 21 touchdowns. That would qualify as his best year but those numbers would still be on the high end of average. The bar is so low for DJ that a career year for him would place him in the 13th to 16th ranked QB range and that would be enough for the Giants to run it back for a 7th, possible 8th year. I think 3 is most likely with an off chance that 4 is possible with the caveats I mentioned.
See, I don't think him playing as the 13th best QB would be that bad. It would mean the Giants would actually be breaking even in value on the contract given where the QB market is going, and his contract hit will be lower in 2025. It would also provide evidence that his terrible 2023 was maybe an anamoly in the context of the Daboll era.
Maybe I've been beaten down by years of bad football, but DJ playing above average and the Giants getting 9 wins would be positive imv unless a couple of top prospects emerged in the 2024 QB class that the Giants would miss.
Disagree entirely with your point. He'll be playing well below the contract. You don't compete for championships, paying the 13th best QB on an arithmetic scale with the elites. The 13th best QB is not worth 85% of Josh Allen. If you want to compete for a title you have to pay that guy 15% to 20% of Josh Allen, employ a stars and scrubs strategy.
People are ragging on Trevor Lawrence. He's had some pretty bad situations, yet he has thrown over 4k yards his last 2 seasons (and he's only been in the league 3 seasons), over 20 TDs the last 2 seasons. And Y/A over 7.0 the last 2 seasons (an important baseline number that Jones has never attained). You can make a reasonable claim that 4500 yds and 35 TDs are within his ability. The same cannot be said of Jones.
THis is all true, Darwinian. I'm not sure who is predicting those numbers, but they seem pretty unrealistic.
I feel like 3 or 4 are the most likely. And I’m not being a DJ lover here but if the surrounding team stays healthy he should have his best year. Now that doesn’t mean he sets the world on fire and deserves to be here long term. I still think they draft a QB next year regardless… but I think this should be his best year.
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In comment 16538337 compton said:
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DJ can pass for 3,700 yards with 66% completion rate and 21 touchdowns. That would qualify as his best year but those numbers would still be on the high end of average. The bar is so low for DJ that a career year for him would place him in the 13th to 16th ranked QB range and that would be enough for the Giants to run it back for a 7th, possible 8th year. I think 3 is most likely with an off chance that 4 is possible with the caveats I mentioned.
See, I don't think him playing as the 13th best QB would be that bad. It would mean the Giants would actually be breaking even in value on the contract given where the QB market is going, and his contract hit will be lower in 2025. It would also provide evidence that his terrible 2023 was maybe an anamoly in the context of the Daboll era.
Maybe I've been beaten down by years of bad football, but DJ playing above average and the Giants getting 9 wins would be positive imv unless a couple of top prospects emerged in the 2024 QB class that the Giants would miss.
Disagree entirely with your point. He'll be playing well below the contract. You don't compete for championships, paying the 13th best QB on an arithmetic scale with the elites. The 13th best QB is not worth 85% of Josh Allen. If you want to compete for a title you have to pay that guy 15% to 20% of Josh Allen, employ a stars and scrubs strategy.
I understand, but that's where it enters game theory territory. If you are paying a QB who - over his most recent 40-game sample - has played like the 13th best QB (assuming Jones has a good 2024, which for the record I don't will happen), you at least know you are getting 13th-best QB value for your 13th-best contract and can presumably use your remaining margin to build a roster than can cover for his shortcomings.
Going for 15 or 20 percent of Josh Allen is definitely more cost-efficient, but then you're talking rookie scale or journeman backup, where the actual odds of getting good QB play are much lower.
Why poor OL?
AT will miss some time.
JMS will not improve much (He is 25 6 year college not 22)
Neal will miss some time.
No stability - again.
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In comment 16538244 Darwinian said:
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In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said:
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2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise.
If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience.
You're hilarious.
How am I hilarious? Was he healthy for a portion of 2023? Would you describe his play during those times he was healthy as solid, when he was below 30th in almost every meaningful passing metric?
Yup, Jones was healthy for 5 games. Like everyone else he was abysmal opening night (yet not as bad as many of his teammates). AZ was a great 2nd half performance; he was fine against the Fins till hurt.
I won't defend his performance versus SF though I easily could. I'll just leave it as he sucked that game, and also against Seattle. I won't mention the OL, or lack of weapons (remember SB was hurt, Hyatt raw, WDR recovering, Campbell a zero but we didn't know that yet, and Waller meh). Blame it on Jones 100%.
That's why you're hilarious. All your sturm and drang about Jones in 2023 comes down to 2 games.
I do not see a scenario where the OL is improved, the WRs are improved, our RBBC is clicking and DJ is keeping us stuck in the mud. So I'm going to say somewhere between #3 and #4. No amount of improvement will be enough for the haters to take an egg to the face, so I ain't gonna expect that. But again... can't rule out #1 for anyone, not just DJ. Especially on this team as snake bit as we've been.
PS
SFGFNCGiantsFan I don't think you are one of the unreasonably hateful shitposters here. I've actually seen you come to Jone's defense when warranted.
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Definitely 4. But the Jones hate will continue.
If it's 4 everyone on here will be ecstatic and most will admit that they were wrong.
If it's 1-3, the same people who have defended Jones at every turn will continue to make excuses and/or live in fantasy realities.
But those two defenses did, indeed, suck.
Points allowed by the 2022 Colts: 427
Points allowed by the 2022 Vikings: 427
If you want to hang your hat on scoring points on two wretched defenses, be my guest.
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In comment 16538016 yalebowl said:
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Definitely 4. But the Jones hate will continue.
If it's 4 everyone on here will be ecstatic and most will admit that they were wrong.
If it's 1-3, the same people who have defended Jones at every turn will continue to make excuses and/or live in fantasy realities.
Dunk isn't gonna be ecstatic... He'll still be calling for Jone's head on a pike because clearly it will be an anomaly 🤣
Keep my name out of your mouth. I will absolutely be thrilled if the Giants win, just like I was in 2022.
The reason why I have disdain toward Jones is because he is an obstacle to the team's success. Unlike you losers, I care more about the Giants winning than I do about poor Daniel Jones. The moment DJ consistently stops being a problem and starts being a part of the solution, I'll be happy to eat crow and support him. But that hasn't happened, and I doubt it ever will. I hope I'm eventually proven wrong.
Looking at the roster and the schedule one of the first two games are must wins. At 0-2 it's quite possible the Giants are out of playoff contention by week 5 or maybe even sooner. 0-2 could turn into 0-8.
To borrow a sentiment from Go Terps, I'm glad Darren Waller retired. He wasn't durable, was overpaid, and a bad ROI.
Why would I hate Darren Waller?
To borrow a sentiment from Go Terps, I'm glad Darren Waller retired. He wasn't durable, was overpaid, and a bad ROI.
Why would I hate Darren Waller?
Exactly, and many of the VERY SAME posters crying about how we all hate Daniel Jones were trying to run Evan Engram out on a rail, blaming him for everything short of the JFK assassination.
The "hate" criticsm extends to one player and one player only.
I think it's a product of having a favorite. This extends to coaches and staff as well. It's strange for me to see grown men get emotionally attached to other grown men they don't know, who are just doing a job.
I felt this way about Simms and Manning. God bless them, they played well and I enjoyed it. Then they didn't.
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The "hate" criticsm extends to one player and one player only.
I think it's a product of having a favorite. This extends to coaches and staff as well. It's strange for me to see grown men get emotionally attached to other grown men they don't know, who are just doing a job.
I felt this way about Simms and Manning. God bless them, they played well and I enjoyed it. Then they didn't.
I’ll cop to staying in the Eli bandwagon too long, but at least he was a 2x SB MVP. It’s fine to hope that Jones figures it out and becomes a good NFL starter, but that adoration is a bit much for a guy who’s never done anything.
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In comment 16538368 Lambuth_Special said:
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In comment 16538337 compton said:
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DJ can pass for 3,700 yards with 66% completion rate and 21 touchdowns. That would qualify as his best year but those numbers would still be on the high end of average. The bar is so low for DJ that a career year for him would place him in the 13th to 16th ranked QB range and that would be enough for the Giants to run it back for a 7th, possible 8th year. I think 3 is most likely with an off chance that 4 is possible with the caveats I mentioned.
See, I don't think him playing as the 13th best QB would be that bad. It would mean the Giants would actually be breaking even in value on the contract given where the QB market is going, and his contract hit will be lower in 2025. It would also provide evidence that his terrible 2023 was maybe an anamoly in the context of the Daboll era.
Maybe I've been beaten down by years of bad football, but DJ playing above average and the Giants getting 9 wins would be positive imv unless a couple of top prospects emerged in the 2024 QB class that the Giants would miss.
Disagree entirely with your point. He'll be playing well below the contract. You don't compete for championships, paying the 13th best QB on an arithmetic scale with the elites. The 13th best QB is not worth 85% of Josh Allen. If you want to compete for a title you have to pay that guy 15% to 20% of Josh Allen, employ a stars and scrubs strategy.
I understand, but that's where it enters game theory territory. If you are paying a QB who - over his most recent 40-game sample - has played like the 13th best QB (assuming Jones has a good 2024, which for the record I don't will happen), you at least know you are getting 13th-best QB value for your 13th-best contract and can presumably use your remaining margin to build a roster than can cover for his shortcomings.
Going for 15 or 20 percent of Josh Allen is definitely more cost-efficient, but then you're talking rookie scale or journeman backup, where the actual odds of getting good QB play are much lower.
Yes. I'm all about game theory. The problem with the 13th best QB is that in the curve from elite to terrible (and I'm not certain Jones isn't terrible), in any given year the 24th best QB can have a 13th best year. Those slots are close to fungible. So you are paying a premium for an edge that may not exist. I think Cousins is the bottom of the reliable tier, and the QBs like Carr, Jones, Mayfield, they all have medium to bust seasons interchangeably. By the way the year we signed Jones to the 7th or 8th richest contract in NFL history, Mayfield was signed by TB for $4M and he wildly outplayed Jones.
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In comment 16538269 HBart said:
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In comment 16538244 Darwinian said:
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In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said:
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2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise.
If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience.
You're hilarious.
How am I hilarious? Was he healthy for a portion of 2023? Would you describe his play during those times he was healthy as solid, when he was below 30th in almost every meaningful passing metric?
Yup, Jones was healthy for 5 games. Like everyone else he was abysmal opening night (yet not as bad as many of his teammates). AZ was a great 2nd half performance; he was fine against the Fins till hurt.
I won't defend his performance versus SF though I easily could. I'll just leave it as he sucked that game, and also against Seattle. I won't mention the OL, or lack of weapons (remember SB was hurt, Hyatt raw, WDR recovering, Campbell a zero but we didn't know that yet, and Waller meh). Blame it on Jones 100%.
That's why you're hilarious. All your sturm and drang about Jones in 2023 comes down to 2 games.
I'm all "sturm and drang" as you casually throw out games to make Jones look better. How about we look at the largest sample size avail for Jones in 2023, and not throw out any of his production. The sample size I am speaking of are his: season stats. And his season stats from 2023 are just abysmal. But a lot of the problems Jones had in 2023, they were there in 2022 as well. He won't throw downfield. he relies too much on low adot and low y/a and throwing behind the los at league leading levels. He is a mistake prone and uncertain passer who wants to dump it off too much or run.
Whatever greatness you think he has in him, it's entirely based on faith, because he has never in his career performed as an elite passer, not even a glimpse of it.
And I am not into giving QB giant contracts and the keys to the kingdom, until I see some glimmer that they can do the job at an elite level. The only thing Daniel Jones has ever done at an elite level, is run in straight lines downfield.
Jones, if healthy, should be able to produce in this offense if it comes together the way we hope. The Oline and receiver group have been upgraded. Beckham did extend Eli's career past expiration - I do expect Nabers to have the same impact on Jones.
But his standard game will still be the standard Daniel Jones game. 200 yards, 1 TD, 0.5 Ints, lots of easy passes, no threat of big plays.
And that will be enough for the Giants to sign up for year 7 of this misery. Possibly even restructure his contract to guarantee his hereditary right to the throne for another 2 or 3 years.
The reality, is its far more likely to be 1 or 2, and if the OL is "adequate", he may hit #3. Just don't see the upside talent to hit 4 AND he may be so damaged mentally (Dave Carr syndrome), that even 3 is a stretch.
root (not route)
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The team scored 38 the last meaningful reg season game (everyone seems to forget DJ got a standing ovation after scoring 4 TDs (2 passing, 2 rushing) to clinch the playoff berth) and then 31 on the road against a 13 win team (I don't want to hear the opposing defenses sucked, 'cause guess what, that's when you should score 30+ and they did, even with one of the worst receiving corps in the league).
But those two defenses did, indeed, suck.
Points allowed by the 2022 Colts: 427
Points allowed by the 2022 Vikings: 427
If you want to hang your hat on scoring points on two wretched defenses, be my guest.
I'm not hanging my hat on anything. I've said a few times on BBI that I was ready to move on from DJ on draft night (but I’m glad we didn’t force a bad trade or reach and I’m glad they went with Nabers).
My point was directed at the poster who said the DJFC (whoever that is) would be "over the moon" with very poor stats just like they were in '22. I pointed out that '22 and '24 are very different scenarios and I don't think anyone will be happy with similar stats.
I pointed out that the play calling was very conservative for much of the '22 season, but that DJ and the offense showed some life towards the end of the season, despite having one of the worst WR corps in the league. I don't think those points are disputable.
Here are some facts that you might not have noticed:
Only 2 teams scored more than the Giants did against the Colts the entire ’22 season. The Vikings happened to be one of the teams and they only scored 1 more pt than the Giants did (39 vs 38). In fact, only 3 other teams scored more than 30 pts (including the Texans who scored 32) vs the Colts the entire season.
Only 4 teams scored more than the Giants did against the Vikings in ‘22 and only 2 of those games were in MN.
We actually played a worse defense earlier in the season (Oct. 2) and it didn't translate to a lot of pts (we only scored 20 against the WORST defense in the league (Bears, 463 PA, which supports my assertion that the offense got better towards the end of the season after the arrival of Hodgins and the play calling became less conservative).
I'm pretty sure ALL QBs play better with a better OL and with better weapons. That shouldn't be controversial.
Here's another that I've pointed out to you in the past: QBs generally have their best statistical games against bad defenses. It's not just a DJ thing.
As I’ve pointed out, in Eli’s best statistical season when he threw 35 TDs, 14 (40%) of the 35 TDs came in 3 games against BAD defenses! The same thing with Tom Brady in his best season when he threw a shitload (about 40%) of his TDs in 3 or 4 games against BAD defenses!
Conversely, I’m old enough to remember when Phil Simms in the middle of one of his best seasons could only lead the Giants to score 3 pts. vs the 49ers in ‘90.
Greg, I know you’re a smart guy. You probably consider yourself a realist. I also consider myself a realist that leans towards the optimistic. I think you lean the other way, which is your right.
I think anyone who refuses to acknowledge some of the flashes DJ has shown albeit rare, and thinks that the additions of Nabers, Wan’Dale (who has rarely been healthy when DJ was), Hyatt (who was a raw 3rd rd pick early last yr) and potentially the best OL that DJ has ever played behind (with help from Bricillo, Runyan, et al.) aren’t going to make a difference and that DJ and our offense is probably not going to look any better than they did in Sept of ’22, is WAY more pessimistic than realistic. I'm glad I'm not going into the season thinking that way.
Nothing is scary.
We didn’t miss out on can’t miss in the draft or FA.
We are building a system designed for the talent available in college football.
If Jones gets hurt, we will be OK.
It’s the playmakers we need healthy.
If they do their thing.
Take short passes and turn them into big plays.
Once that happens
The back end needs to compensate.
Johnson and will become VERY problematic at that point.
To be clear we have not yet seen
TAKE SHORT PASSES that turn into big plays.
This is the KEY to the Daboll/Kafka offense.
I think we now have depth(IE every player on offense can do this now)
We have entered a new world.
Can we see what happens without all the panic and drama?
In fact, they will soon learn they can't really stop it, they'll just hope to contain it.
I'll stick with a Russian proverb: never argue with a man who says he knows. Because, he knows.
Like Shmelek/Baldinger summed my POV yesterday: 2023 tells us virtually nothing except an offense doesn't function without a minimally solid OL.
Which anyone with a bit of football acumen already knew.