Of Eric's 4 scenarios about DJ, what would you bet on?

this order, from most to least likely:

3, 2, 1, 4.

but not good enough. He has an injury scare so they shut him down and Lock closes out the season.

1. Scenario 4 is by far the least likely.
2. Scenario 3, and possibly also Scenario 2, are probably enough to bring him back as the starter in 2025. Remember, the Giants brought him back for 2024 despite 2023 being Scenario 1.

They want him to be the guy, and are going to find any excuse to make that happen.

It's clearly going to be 3. Because, well, the Giants.

Definitely 4. But the Jones hate will continue.

Management is then even more clueless, than usual, on what to do for 2025.

Equal odds on 1 and 2, followed by 3, and then a big gap down to 4

Hopefully if he's bad the leash is short because of BD keeps running a bad Jones out there he's gone too

those 2 options encompass the majority of his career outcomes, so i think the odds of a big change are unlikely either way.

He play poorly and get injured like he has in 3 of 5 seasons here

He's going to work his ass off and do the best he can. I hope for the best, don't expect much, but he's a Giant and I will root my ass of for him.

I hope he kicks the doors down and exceeds every expectation I have of him.

But if he doesn't, I hope he falls on his face and the Giants have all the evidence they need to move on from him.

3,1,2 is how i see it

If its #2, then the Giants will make a phantom injury up and make it #1 (like he hurt his neck again)

when he has to or if Daboll is stupid enough to call designated runs.

I reject that #2 makes them look stupid

In comment 16538021 gridirony said:

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Management is then even more clueless, than usual, on what to do for 2025.

that would be a fan killer...

I think the most likely outcomes are he continues to lack confidence to throw down field and it’s more of what we saw last year. This would be scenario 2 and they’d pull him for Lock at some point. But if he does play with confidence he’s going to perform better than people expect. Even in this scenario I don’t see him long term answer but he’ll surpass expectations and thus scenario 4.

Splitting the difference Im going with 3, but in actuality I see it being either 2 or 4.

1,2, or 3. Never 4

Then 3 and 4, and lastly 2.

followed by
1
3

and then an incredibly distant #4

3) He stays healthy and plays OK, but is clearly not elevating the team.

3.5) He stays healthy and plays well, elevates the team on multiple occasions, but doesn’t play well enough to be considered a clear franchise QB

4) He stays healthy and has his best year, leaving a lot of people with egg on their face.

In comment 16538016 yalebowl said:

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Definitely 4. But the Jones hate will continue.

If it's 4 everyone on here will be ecstatic and most will admit that they were wrong.

If it's 1-3, the same people who have defended Jones at every turn will continue to make excuses and/or live in fantasy realities.

Thus far exceeds the threads we use to have on Dave Brown back in the day

Daniel Jones has gotten hurt and missed time every year. 2022 was an outlier in that department. But just looking at the tea leaves:
1. Daniel Jones is coming back from a recurring neck injury.
2. Daniel Jones best skill is scrambling which brings him into more contact.
3. Daniel Jones offensive line is still an unknown. Last season it put him out for the year early. Will it at all be improved this season.
4. Daniel Jones has unfamiliar weapons. No more Barkley or Waller. How long will it take to get on the same page with Nabers, Singletary and Theo Johnson?

I am not a DJ hater. I just don’t see a world where he isn’t coming into viscous contact and hard hits again.

last year - the ability to make pre and then quick post snap reads and throw to the 2nd or 3rd read.

how many times did he do this in the Vikings win?

The key will be the start. The start of the season for Jones is more important than the season as a whole for the team.

He won't be able to stay on the field if he starts 2-5 or something like that.

because either Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson will be starting for this team next year.

He is a runner

He takes off by design or when his first read us taken away

You virtually never see him scramble (run around behind the LOS) to buy more time to throw the ball

When he does run around back behind the line of scrimmage he usually winds up not throwing the ball and running out if bounds. He takes alot of lost yardage running out of bounds, which actually counts as a sack as oppossed to throwing the ball away

You can look at an example last year much cited of a WR I forgot who doing jumping jacks out there trying to get Jones to see him down field while Jones ran it out of bounds for a loss.

Is the OL the worst in the NFL again? If it is, what else can be expected?

Don't think DJ will last the entire year if he starts week 1.

3, 4 the least likely in that order.

Are that he misses at least 2 games. While I wouldn't refer to that as a substantial amount of time, none of the situations I see from him involve "fully healthy".

With that in mind I'd expect this:

Hurt missing a few games, average play made to look slightly better when Nabers takes a few short passes 80yds for a TD and skews Jones stats.

Expecting 3. He’ll miss time for an injury. Lock Will prove he’s not the answer and DJ will be back sooner than he should.

Nabers is going to extend Jones's time as a Giant. He's going to have a Beckham circa 2016 impact on this offense.

I believe the Giants will have an outstanding defense this year. My guess is the Giants are a 7-8 win team, and the entire band will be back together in 2025.

We'll see

In comment 16538164 christian said:

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Nabers is going to extend Jones's time as a Giant. He's going to have a Beckham circa 2016 impact on this offense. I believe the Giants will have an outstanding defense this year. My guess is the Giants are a 7-8 win team, and the entire band will be back together in 2025.

If the defense is outstanding and Nabers has a similar impact to Beckham, you are predicting an improvement of 1 win? If that's the outcome the team is going to the playoffs. Not even a question. Especially given we are both high on Daboll.

repeat his 2022 season, although I don’t think he’ll run as often. To me, that is not enough. A modern NFL QB has to make plays downfield, and Jones has not shown he can do that.

But I will keep an open mind. He never has had a stellar WR group, or OL, but there are no excuses this year. Easily his best WR group, and while this OL isn’t likely to remind anyone of the early 90’s Cowboys, it should be solid. Another 15 TD season just isn’t going to cut it.

I'm betting on 4.

I think the additions of Nabers, a healthy Wan'Dale, a more experienced Hyatt, Theo, Runyan, Eluemunor and Bricillo's development of the OL is going to make a big difference.

I think Nabers alone is going to make a big difference and not only by his own individual production. I think his presence is going to improve the entire O.

I know a lot of people think they're just excuses, but it's a fact that most QBs play better with a decent OL and a stud WR or 2. DJ has never had a stud WR and has barely ever had a decent OL, at least not for long.

We've seen flashes from him without those 2 things and now he/we hopefully have them.

Another possible scenario is DJ is playing well and gets hurt. That's the one I most fear (and why I was ready to move on at the last draft).

He'll have his best year (though even if he throws 35 TDs and 4,500 yards plenty of BBIers will say he sucks --- in fact, they'll even contend 35/4,500 sucks in todays NFL.

#4, then #1 - without the editorial that the Giants look like idiots if Jones misses time for injury. On average QBs miss about 2 games a season (which was Jones average going into last season). They may look like idiots, but not because of Jones missing a few games.

No point in ranking 2 and 3. Too subjective, and not extreme enough. If Jones won MVP, BBIers haters will argue it's in spite of him, and Dave Brown would have passed for 8,000/100 with the same weapons.

NFL QB injury projections - ( New Window )

In comment 16538074 Bill in UT said:

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when he has to or if Daboll is stupid enough to call designated runs.

It what Jones does best unfortunately.

He is not his QB.

In comment 16538144 HardTruth said:

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He is a runner He takes off by design or when his first read us taken away You virtually never see him scramble (run around behind the LOS) to buy more time to throw the ball When he does run around back behind the line of scrimmage he usually winds up not throwing the ball and running out if bounds. He takes alot of lost yardage running out of bounds, which actually counts as a sack as oppossed to throwing the ball away You can look at an example last year much cited of a WR I forgot who doing jumping jacks out there trying to get Jones to see him down field while Jones ran it out of bounds for a loss.

Spot on.

In comment 16538191 Sean said:

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Nabers is going to extend Jones's time as a Giant. He's going to have a Beckham circa 2016 impact on this offense. I believe the Giants will have an outstanding defense this year. My guess is the Giants are a 7-8 win team, and the entire band will be back together in 2025. If the defense is outstanding and Nabers has a similar impact to Beckham, you are predicting an improvement of 1 win? If that's the outcome the team is going to the playoffs. Not even a question. Especially given we are both high on Daboll.

Look at the Raiders - a top 10 defense, a no doubt number one receiver in Adams. Yet an 8 win team because of the talent at quarterback.

If Jones is healthy 17 games, then I agree they will improve more than 1-2 wins.

Let me know if that isn't intuitive.

There is no evidence that 4 will happen, so I would never bet on it.

Which should terrify everyone, because it's a recipe for not improving

2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise.

you have to factor in McDaniels as well. He had a Judge-esque ending.

In comment 16538016 yalebowl said:

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Definitely 4. But the Jones hate will continue.

Definitely.

Definitely.

In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said:

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2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise.

If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience.

In comment 16538244 Darwinian said:

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In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said: Quote: 2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise. If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience.

You're hilarious.

In comment 16538269 HBart said:

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In comment 16538244 Darwinian said: Quote: In comment 16538235 UConn4523 said: Quote: 2 doesn’t seem that likely - if he’s not hurt he’s going to be solid, at least. 4 would be a surprise. If he's not hurt he'll be solid, at least? He was not hurt for a good portion of 2023, and that wasn't the 2023 experience. You're hilarious.

How am I hilarious? Was he healthy for a portion of 2023? Would you describe his play during those times he was healthy as solid, when he was below 30th in almost every meaningful passing metric?