What Will it Take for Jones *Not* to Return in 25

A long playoff run.

In comment 16538776 JoeyBigBlue said:

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A long playoff run.

You think the Giants will cut Jones if he doesn't have a long playoff run? That doesn't make much sense financially.

That would be the death sentence for Daboll and Schoen imv

Loses against Minnesota and looks mediocre, never gets settled in and the team is always 2 or 3 games below .500. I think he makes it 8 games on that trajectory and then is benched. The MGM casino having his TD O/U at 9.5 is an indication that his leash won't be very long if he struggles.

I do agree that if the team hovers around .500 and Jones playes even as good as the 20th best QB, they'll bring him back.

But his cap hit is still about $42m and cap savings about $20m. So, I don’t see the cap being a major factor in his favor or not in his favor. It going to be about his play on the field.

In comment 16538778 christian said:

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In comment 16538776 JoeyBigBlue said: Quote: A long playoff run. You think the Giants will cut Jones if he doesn't have a long playoff run? That doesn't make much sense financially.

If he plays well (4000 yards, 30+ total TDs) and has a long playoff run, let’s say to the Conference championship game, it will be hard to release him. But we both know that won’t happen.

I truly think that at this point, he would need to be embarrassingly bad to not be brought back. Basically, if he has more TDs than turnovers, he will be the unquestioned starter in 2025.

He's going to play as the 25th - 18th best QB, and at the end of the year we are going to hear about how it's unfair to truly evaluate him coming off an injury, with a rookie WR, and an OL that "hasn't had time to gel."

Workshopping pre-excuses in the event Jones does what Jones is apt to do.

In comment 16538787 BillT said:

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But his cap hit is still about $42m and cap savings about $20m. So, I don’t see the cap being a major factor in his favor or not in his favor. It going to be about his play on the field.

I agree the cap impact won't be a factor, but I disagree cost won't be.

In real terms keeping Jones next year will be a 1/30M commitment. That's a pretty low number for a bridge starter.

Another DJ thread. Yay.

2020: 11 passing touchdowns
2021: 10 passing touchdowns
2022: 15 passing touchdowns
2023: 2 passing touchdowns

In comment 16538792 christian said:

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In comment 16538787 BillT said: Quote: But his cap hit is still about $42m and cap savings about $20m. So, I don’t see the cap being a major factor in his favor or not in his favor. It going to be about his play on the field. I agree the cap impact won't be a factor, but I disagree cost won't be. In real terms keeping Jones next year will be a 1/30M commitment. That's a pretty low number for a bridge starter.

Not sure I believe they think like that. The cap number yes, the cash number?

All things considered (older, more wear etc.) -- let's look at what earned Jones a 2/82M commitment.

- Stayed healthy
- 9-7-1 regular season, highly efficient, average production
- One very good playoff game, one very bad playoff game

So then what's the threshold for a 1/30M commitment?

We’ve heard the excuses “that was a running team!” (as if QB’s of other running teams can’t throw more than 15 TD passes), OK, fine, but this will not be a run-first team.

They brought in Singletary, who’s selling point is that he is a dual threat. They drafted Tracy, a converted WR, at RB. They’ve significantly upgraded the WR corps. Anything less than 3,800 yards and 25 TD’s just isn’t going to cut it, especially if it’s combined with an under 7 YPA.

In comment 16538793 Johnny5 said:

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Another DJ thread. Yay.

Nobody's forcing you to read it.

In comment 16538796 BillT said:

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But his cap hit is still about $42m and cap savings about $20m. So, I don’t see the cap being a major factor in his favor or not in his favor. It going to be about his play on the field. I agree the cap impact won't be a factor, but I disagree cost won't be. In real terms keeping Jones next year will be a 1/30M commitment. That's a pretty low number for a bridge starter. Not sure I believe they think like that. The cap number yes, the cash number?

If you want to look at if from a cap perspective, the save 30.5M in cap space if they cut him. They save 19.4M in 2025 and 11.1M on 2026.

The real question is whether one year of additional service from Jones is worth 30.5M.

I'll say for him to return he'll need to make the playoffs and stay healthy. Anything less he's gone. I don't think drafting Nabers had much to do with Jones.

They structured the contract in a way to move off him after this year.

what they are thinking and what they will do. I think another year similar to 2023(even without the injuries) and he is toast. I think he is on a short leash.

Another season of truly bad OLine could save him somewhat.

In comment 16538807 Sean said:

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I'll say for him to return he'll need to make the playoffs and stay healthy. Anything less he's gone. I don't think drafting Nabers had much to do with Jones. They structured the contract in a way to move off him after this year.

I actually think it's quite the other way around. The contract was constructed to make it easy for them to keep him the third year.

The other variable I missed in the OP is that 12M of 2025 salary becomes guaranteed March 5th. So prior to the draft the Giants effectively must decide whether they keep him or not.

I don't think keeping Jones precludes them from drafting a quarterback in 2025 draft, but they will have to decide before the draft.

It's a clever element of the deal that benefits Team Jones.

He should end up being the starter, if healthy, and with a better supporting cast have a positive season. I get that its the slow period but there should be a block on DJ threads until camp.

I for one will be rooting for him to win a bunch of games and make the playoffs so we can have a little bit of fun this season. I feel like he's become so polarizing that half of the fan base wants him to be so bad he has to be cut. That just doesn't make sense to me as a fan that buys season tickets and invests many Sundays on the team.

His 200 yards passing 1 td a game 6.5 an attempt 400 yards on the ground as the second leading rusher on the team, will be more than enough for his ardent admirers in the FO and the fan base. The usual suspects will once again receive the blame, and Jones will add to his body count among coaching staff, receivers, and offensive linemen.

In comment 16538810 christian said:

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In comment 16538807 Sean said: Quote: I'll say for him to return he'll need to make the playoffs and stay healthy. Anything less he's gone. I don't think drafting Nabers had much to do with Jones. They structured the contract in a way to move off him after this year. I actually think it's quite the other way around. The contract was constructed to make it easy for them to keep him the third year. The other variable I missed in the OP is that 12M of 2025 salary becomes guaranteed March 5th. So prior to the draft the Giants effectively must decide whether they keep him or not. I don't think keeping Jones precludes them from drafting a quarterback in 2025 draft, but they will have to decide before the draft. It's a clever element of the deal that benefits Team Jones.

The whole thing benefits Team Jones. Schoen really got taken to the woodshed on that contract.

In comment 16538811 dannyman3131 said:

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He should end up being the starter, if healthy, and with a better supporting cast have a positive season. I get that its the slow period but there should be a block on DJ threads until camp. I for one will be rooting for him to win a bunch of games and make the playoffs so we can have a little bit of fun this season. I feel like he's become so polarizing that half of the fan base wants him to be so bad he has to be cut. That just doesn't make sense to me as a fan that buys season tickets and invests many Sundays on the team.

Any chance we can have a block on you posting in perpetuity?

...in fact, OL guys like Feliciano and Hernandez leave here and all of the sudden look competent.

Engram leaves here and all of the sudden no more drops.

Barkley never came close to what he was when Eli was his QB. Yes, injuries, but he was healthy in 2022 and his receiving was way down. Plus maybe his blitz pickup might have something to do with Jones not recognizing where the blitz is coming from?

I hope I eat crow but all evidence points to the guy just not being good at football.

In comment 16538793 Johnny5 said:

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Another DJ thread. Yay.

Do you possess any willpower at all? Or do you gain weight on every diet because every day becomes a cheat day for you?

The topic is right in the subject line. You have the option to skip the thread entirely.

But you can't.

In comment 16538814 HomerJones45 said:

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It's a clever element of the deal that benefits Team Jones. The whole thing benefits Team Jones. Schoen really got taken to the woodshed on that contract.

The contract is fine - no woodshed. The player signing the contract IS the woodshed.

But for Mara, I have no real idea. I think Mara has to be embarrassed to move off his glamor boy. Mara doesn't like to be embarrassed by the fans.If the Giants finish last in the division, which I expect, then Jones is a goner. Beyond that, it's a coin flip.

If you assume it's a typical Giants season (5 to 9 wins), who's going to move the needle enough to make them dump a healthy Daniel and eat a cap hit? Are they going to dump him, eat the money, AND pay Dak or Tua $55M a year (and that's assuming either even makes it to FA)?

What's the alternative to Jones in 2025?

1. How healthy was he?
2. Assuming moderately healthy, how well did he play?
3. Where are we picking in the draft?

If we finish around .500 and no playoffs we will pick in the teens, and I can see us sticking with him. Under that and he’s gone whether he was hurt or unproductive.

If he’s healthy and we only improve 1-2 wins than he needs to go. If he’s hurt again he needs to go.

Jones will be back for 2025. The organization seems satisfied that he is a solid NFL starter, and his cap hit of $30M next year is not bad for a guy you consider to be a solid NFL starter.

If Jones plays 12 games, throws for 2,000+ yards and 10+ TDs, I think he will be the unquestioned starter heading into 2025, with the idea that better protection and more weapons is all he needs.

Jones plays, and more important, we see if the oline is any better and will the defense be any better.

The injury component actually might play to his favor. Let's say Jones blows his Achilles in October, and the standard recovery is 8-9 months.

On March 5th he fails a physical, and the Giants owe him 23M. Do they cut him on the spot or do they let him continue to rehab and see how the draft and UFA play out?

And if Jones is healthy by June and it only costs an additional 7M for him to be on the roster, do they pay him?

In comment 16538833 Jack Stroud said:

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Jones plays, and more important, we see if the oline is any better and will the defense be any better.

A choice that you are absolutely empowered to make. I think?

In comment 16538832 Mike from Ohio said:

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Jones will be back for 2025. The organization seems satisfied that he is a solid NFL starter, and his cap hit of $30M next year is not bad for a guy you consider to be a solid NFL starter. If Jones plays 12 games, throws for 2,000+ yards and 10+ TDs, I think he will be the unquestioned starter heading into 2025, with the idea that better protection and more weapons is all he needs.

I don’t think that does it. If he misses 5 games and the playoffs that seals his fate IMO. Just like it would have if it happened in 2022 and probably last year as well if we didn’t already commit the money.

I’ll revise - he may be back in 2025 due to finances but a rookie would be drafted if he gets injured again.

In comment 16538834 christian said:

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The injury component actually might play to his favor. Let's say Jones blows his Achilles in October, and the standard recovery is 8-9 months. On March 5th he fails a physical, and the Giants owe him 23M. Do they cut him on the spot or do they let him continue to rehab and see how the draft and UFA play out? And if Jones is healthy by June and it only costs an additional 7M for him to be on the roster, do they pay him?

When does that additional $7 mill become guaranteed? How late can they cut him and save the $7 mill?

I think another injury year is death knell...

And Jones has a pedestrian season, he'll be cut before 3/5 imo.

(A few contract things I think increase the chances he returns:

- Next year is the cheap year in his contract, keeping him in 2025 will only cost 30.5M in cash (cash by year 46, 36, 30.5, 47.5).

- In a strange way getting hurt would might help him. If he can't pass a physical in March, 23M of that 30.5M is guaranteed. If they're already paying 75%, it might make sense to let him rehab and pay the additional 7.5M.

So with contract stuff in his favor, I think it would take a disaster of a season, including Daboll getting fired for Jones to not return.

Obviously a good season secures his return. But I think even a bad to average season won't end his tenure. He becomes quite cheap as a bridge.)


I’ve been thinking the same things lately. Jones would have to really shit the the bed for them to not at least consider bringing him back in 25.
If he looks average or better AND gets the injury money, 7.5 million more might look cheap.
I’m not a djfc member but I’m preparing myself for possibility of his return next year.
If Luck looks good, that would factor into the decision.

if they can get someone they like better, they will do it.
if they cant, jones will be back.

how much they like jones vs alternatives will depend largely on how the season goes, and the alternatives available will be just as big of a factor as jones performance, maybe even bigger (i.e. jones didn't dictate a qb draft pick this year as much as maye would have and jjm didnt).

In comment 16538841 Sean said:

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And Jones has a pedestrian season, he'll be cut before 3/5 imo.

In that scenario the Giants will likely be entering the FA period with zero QBs under contract. Hard to imagine when they could just keep Jones for a cheaper number than they just did.

If he starts 1-4 or 2-5 he's getting benched and depending on how Locke performs he may not get the back in.

Outside of a start(career ender) like that he needs to have competent 8-9 20TD+ season, imv it's the baseline MINIMUM he needs to hit to be back in '25

In comment 16538827 Go Terps said:

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If you assume it's a typical Giants season (5 to 9 wins), who's going to move the needle enough to make them dump a healthy Daniel and eat a cap hit? Are they going to dump him, eat the money, AND pay Dak or Tua $55M a year (and that's assuming either even makes it to FA)? What's the alternative to Jones in 2025?

Trading for a QB or trading up for a QB

In comment 16538843 Eric on Li said:

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if they can get someone they like better, they will do it. if they cant, jones will be back. how much they like jones vs alternatives will depend largely on how the season goes, and the alternatives available will be just as big of a factor as jones performance, maybe even bigger (i.e. jones didn't dictate a qb draft pick this year as much as maye would have and jjm didnt).

This is the answer! If they can draft someone or sign someone they view as an upgrade, bye bye DJ, if not..he will be back

Hes already a great player in the lusty eyes of John Mara. To keep Mara, all he needs to do is to have a bunch of regular Daniel Jones games. Play like a backup QB, continue looking and acting like Johm wants his QB to look and act.

The thing that could swing it is regularly getting booed off the field at home and/or back channeled complaints from the locker room about the organizational favoritism showed to Daniel.

to just move on. Whether it’s yet another injury, fractured locker room, etc I think there’s factors that can come into play outside of what happens on the field.

Jones's 2023 could not have gone worse on the field:

1. Rumors of neck issues impacting his throwing motion
2. He tore his ACL
3. When he played he was horrendous
4. Taylor and DeVito made him look like the third best QB on the team

And yet, after an offseason that saw Kirk Cousins become an FA and one of the strongest QB draft classes in years, Jones is here.

Next year's FA class probably won't have a Cousins in it, the draft class is expected to be weaker, and Jones is going to cost less.

So why would the Giants not bring him back in 2025?

.

Is that they are in position to draft someone they are confident in as his replacement.

Jesus. Falcons think so highly of him - they drafted his replacement already.

What has cousins won by the way???