numbers so far in AA are good but not eye popping. 3.66 FIP, 9.68 K/9, .222 BABIP, 92.3% LOB. I like Sproat a lot but I'm not so sure he really has higher upside than Christian Scott just because he throws harder. I'd probably take Tong over any other pitcher in the system if we are talking about highest ceiling, best chance to be a TOR type (not that I'd bet on that outcome with him either).
Brewers are tied for 3rd fewest major leaguers drafted on OD rosters this season (14). The Dodgers led the league with 29 (for comparisons sake), the average team had 19.4. Will Sammon obviously isn't speaking out of his ass when he said
"The Brewers have had some recent success stories from the draft and there’s plenty of time in some other cases for development, but generally speaking, the draft was not one of Stearns’ biggest strengths during his successful tenure with the club."
Remember, Sammon actually covered the Brewers 2018-2021.
Here he is talking about Stearns when he took the job covering the Mets, praising how much he learned from Stearns.
Quote:
For the past three seasons, I covered the Milwaukee Brewers for The Athletic. For professional and personal reasons, I loved Milwaukee. I met my girlfriend, Daniela, in Milwaukee; of course, she was a Brewers fan on vacation from the Northeast and we met near the large glove and the replica racing sausages. It’s where I lived during some of the most historic moments of our country’s recent history. After five years covering college football, the Brewers were my first baseball beat. The players, the fans, the media and those who worked in the organization often made my gig feel exactly what I figured it’d be in February 2020: a dream job. Every day, I had the opportunity to learn more about the game I grew up loving. And no one taught me more than Craig Counsell and David Stearns, two of the smarter minds in baseball. In switching beats at The Athletic to the Mets, I get to take my experiences covering an MLB team and apply them to the largest media market, join the talented Tim Britton and cover one of baseball’s most exciting teams. I also get to come home.
i dont think stearns would disagree with any of that, thats presumably why he interviewed 7 different people and promoted someone new to run their drafts in his first year in MIL. it appears to me that their hit rate since that change relative to the mets isn't so bad, though it's still early.
obviously tramuta has already moved on and there have been endless changes to the mets FO from 2019-2024, but as of 2019 when BA wrote this article they'd drafted/developed the 5th most war of any other org in the 2010's decade. it's still early even for 2020 picks like PCA so as we know it takes a while to put together any sort of comprehensive analysis of drafts. these 2010-2019 ranks are likely very different today than 5 years ago and will continue to change 5 years into the future as players like nimmo, lugo, alonso, vientos, baty, peterson, etc evolved/continue to evolve over their careers.
I think the more relevant stat would be 29th in the league in players on OD rosters don't you? 2010 was 14 years ago. All of those players you mentioned are accounted for and yet 28 other teams had more players drafted on OD rosters.
Quote:
Counting players who are active on MLB Opening Day rosters is admittedly a crude measure of draft success. This count equates the 13th pitcher on a staff with an MLB ace. But it’s still a nice snapshot of what teams are able to find and sign big leaguers out of the draft and which ones aren’t.
There are 583 draftees on Opening Day active rosters (74.8% of the total number of players on rosters), so the average team will produce 19.4 big leaguers. Any club with more than that is above average. Anyone below that is below average.
The Mets had 11, the Brewers 14 (tied with Oakland)
Dodgers 29, Padres 28, Cardinals 27, Astros 26... notice there sure seems to be a correlation with successful franchises
went from 2006 until 2021 (25 1st round picks) until they had a player drafted by them that played 1 single full season for the club. It's pretty well established the Brewers weren't built via a great ability to draft. Their current lineup of their top 6 in fWAR, 1 came via the draft (Turang). Pitching side only Robert Gasser. Makes their success that much more impressive tbh.
I flubbed that one. Robert Gasser was of course a major part of the Hader trade. The Brewers actually don't have a single pitcher on their roster that has posted positive fWAR that they drafted. It's actually remarkable how good they are at what they do despite the weak drafts. Quietly excellent IFA program and their FO is quietly one of the most advanced in all of baseball. Easier said than done when every team now employs X analysts.
i think players on rosters is a relevant stat but way longer term
2016/2017 when stearns took over MIL sounds like a long time ago (bc it kind of is), think about how many of the current active players drafted by mets were drafted before that?
nimmo, mcneil, lugo, conforto types sure but it goes back even farther.
matz and mitch hanniger from 2009 are on that list and at that point stearns was closer to being omar's intern than milwaukee gm.
stearns may have found the right guy to run those mil drafts in 2017 and started fixing the problem or maybe they didn't, im just pointing out that i think its hard to judge because of how much time goes into some of these draft metrics. tbh i think that's why i have a hard time focusing the draft too deeply in general. hit rates are so low the entire event is just unfathomably hard to predict.
im sure ill get excited about whoever the mets pick this year but realistically it's just a fill in the blanks for what will probably end up 2-3 names of a struggling young players most will be complaining about in 5-6 years like baty right now. in the half decade since his draft i cant tell you if he's dom smith or alec bohm. neither outcome would surprise me much (and most likely he'll end up somewhere in between).
part of each prospect is where they would rank in his top 50 right now, he only has 1 prospect (condon) ranked 1 spot ahead of christian scott (who is #18) and 1 other (bazzana) ranked 2 slots ahead of jett (#24). all are in the 55 grade tier presently but his top 2 from draft have future 60 grades.
kind of amzing jett is still younger than both too. missing this year sucks but it may not end up the worst thing to delay his MLB service time by 1 year staggered a little more from lindor/acuna/mauricio. crazy how good that pick looks relative to how bad parada looks. Final 2024 MLB draft rankings: Top 250 prospects - ( New Window )
From Sammons notes Stearns lack of draft success in Milwaukee, Gross’s strength in the draft with Houston and the fact the Mets may go with higher upside/riskier picks this year.
Interesting! I wonder if they're eyeing up someone like Brody Brecht then. Huge FB/SL combo.
Other than being a pitcher with the inherent injury risk, is Brecht really seen as a riskier pitch? IMO, he looks like a very safe pick for a pitcher at that point in the draft.
From Sammons notes Stearns lack of draft success in Milwaukee, Gross’s strength in the draft with Houston and the fact the Mets may go with higher upside/riskier picks this year.
Interesting! I wonder if they're eyeing up someone like Brody Brecht then. Huge FB/SL combo.
Other than being a pitcher with the inherent injury risk, is Brecht really seen as a riskier pitch? IMO, he looks like a very safe pick for a pitcher at that point in the draft.
I was going with the higher upside not the risk part. Since he was splitting time some think he's no where near his ceiling.
Every time I mention how bad Stewart has been he does something good so... last 28 days .133/.278/.233. He's 0 for his last 12. Unbelievably long leash (40 starts), with a minor league option left for a team in the mix for the playoffs
Tim Britton
@TimBritton
The Mets have acquired Phil Maton from the Rays for cash or a player to be named later. They have designated Joey Lucchesi for assignment.
Was lucceschi struggling? Would have thought they could have used him in pen at some point. What a disaster that trade turned out to be.
my guess is he asked for his release or they just did him a kindness bc they felt vasil/butto/etc have passed him. he's always seemed to have a bit of an odd ball personality, obviously they were ready to move on.
Senga had a good night tonight playing against the Scranton Yankees.
Kodai went 2.2 innings, threw 52 pitches/30 for strikes. He finished up with 3 K's and 2 BB. Radio guy was reading the ballpark radar gun at 93-95. The Ghost-fork was really working.
I think Senga ran out of gas in the third inning....he walked the last 2 batters he faced after getting 2 strikes on them.
Tyler Stuart continues to put up a very strong season, misleading era continues to drop. Came into tonight with a 3.26 FIP and threw 6 strong innings tonight allowing 1 run, striking out 5, walking none #Mets
Really sure what the Jett Williams comp is though? High school pick? Lindsay was a sculpted big dude (6’0” 210) and had solid speed but didn’t steal bases. Probably should have been a red flag he was playing 1B in HS despite his athleticism
“ Luisangel Acuña is now 3-for-25 to start July. His Triple-A wRC+ is 74.
I get Mets fans are looking for options to upgrade on McNeil/Stewart/etc, and Acuña is one of the Mets only upper level prospects healthy, but he hasn't shown anything to suggest he's close to MLB-ready.”
“ Luisangel Acuña is now 3-for-25 to start July. His Triple-A wRC+ is 74.
I get Mets fans are looking for options to upgrade on McNeil/Stewart/etc, and Acuña is one of the Mets only upper level prospects healthy, but he hasn't shown anything to suggest he's close to MLB-ready.”
I was on IG Mets yesterday, and there is just such a misconception out there that Acuna is ready to come up. So many uninformed fans demanding Stearns makes the call to bring him up. Its obnoxious.
The Pirates and Angels are in talks on a trade that would send outfielder Taylor Ward from Anaheim to Pittsburgh, reports Paul Zeise of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and 93.7 FM The Fan. While a deal isn’t yet complete, Zeise adds that Pittsburgh is actively trying to get the deal across the finish line.
not looking to rile up Eric but decent exit velocities only mean so much. Acuna is a speed/defense player who hopefully can hit enough to be a viable regular. 12 players in the IL have been worse than him in 2024 (wRC+) out of 116 players, his ISO is 102/116, his BB% is 105/116, OBP 98/116 and then there's the 3 for his last 25.
There is absolutely nothing in his numbers that suggests he's ready to help a big league team offensively and it's questionable development-wise if it makes sense to have him play sporadically as a bench piece right now. Logic would suggest a 7.0% BB rate in AAA is going to look pretty ugly right now with the big club. Somebody like Ritter or Brosseau likely should be the next man up for now.
"The Brewers have had some recent success stories from the draft and there’s plenty of time in some other cases for development, but generally speaking, the draft was not one of Stearns’ biggest strengths during his successful tenure with the club."
Remember, Sammon actually covered the Brewers 2018-2021.
Here he is talking about Stearns when he took the job covering the Mets, praising how much he learned from Stearns.
Quote:
For the past three seasons, I covered the Milwaukee Brewers for The Athletic. For professional and personal reasons, I loved Milwaukee. I met my girlfriend, Daniela, in Milwaukee; of course, she was a Brewers fan on vacation from the Northeast and we met near the large glove and the replica racing sausages. It’s where I lived during some of the most historic moments of our country’s recent history. After five years covering college football, the Brewers were my first baseball beat. The players, the fans, the media and those who worked in the organization often made my gig feel exactly what I figured it’d be in February 2020: a dream job. Every day, I had the opportunity to learn more about the game I grew up loving. And no one taught me more than Craig Counsell and David Stearns, two of the smarter minds in baseball. In switching beats at The Athletic to the Mets, I get to take my experiences covering an MLB team and apply them to the largest media market, join the talented Tim Britton and cover one of baseball’s most exciting teams. I also get to come home.
i dont think stearns would disagree with any of that, thats presumably why he interviewed 7 different people and promoted someone new to run their drafts in his first year in MIL. it appears to me that their hit rate since that change relative to the mets isn't so bad, though it's still early.
obviously tramuta has already moved on and there have been endless changes to the mets FO from 2019-2024, but as of 2019 when BA wrote this article they'd drafted/developed the 5th most war of any other org in the 2010's decade. it's still early even for 2020 picks like PCA so as we know it takes a while to put together any sort of comprehensive analysis of drafts. these 2010-2019 ranks are likely very different today than 5 years ago and will continue to change 5 years into the future as players like nimmo, lugo, alonso, vientos, baty, peterson, etc evolved/continue to evolve over their careers.
it may be easy to call out bad drafts if guys are already busted out of baseball but longer term it's really hard. nimmo was a punchline for like 6-7 years post-draft.
Ranking Every MLB Team’s Draft Performance In The 2010s - ( New Window )
There are 583 draftees on Opening Day active rosters (74.8% of the total number of players on rosters), so the average team will produce 19.4 big leaguers. Any club with more than that is above average. Anyone below that is below average.
The Mets had 11, the Brewers 14 (tied with Oakland)
Dodgers 29, Padres 28, Cardinals 27, Astros 26... notice there sure seems to be a correlation with successful franchises
I flubbed that one. Robert Gasser was of course a major part of the Hader trade. The Brewers actually don't have a single pitcher on their roster that has posted positive fWAR that they drafted. It's actually remarkable how good they are at what they do despite the weak drafts. Quietly excellent IFA program and their FO is quietly one of the most advanced in all of baseball. Easier said than done when every team now employs X analysts.
nimmo, mcneil, lugo, conforto types sure but it goes back even farther.
matz and mitch hanniger from 2009 are on that list and at that point stearns was closer to being omar's intern than milwaukee gm.
stearns may have found the right guy to run those mil drafts in 2017 and started fixing the problem or maybe they didn't, im just pointing out that i think its hard to judge because of how much time goes into some of these draft metrics. tbh i think that's why i have a hard time focusing the draft too deeply in general. hit rates are so low the entire event is just unfathomably hard to predict.
im sure ill get excited about whoever the mets pick this year but realistically it's just a fill in the blanks for what will probably end up 2-3 names of a struggling young players most will be complaining about in 5-6 years like baty right now. in the half decade since his draft i cant tell you if he's dom smith or alec bohm. neither outcome would surprise me much (and most likely he'll end up somewhere in between).
DH and being 5.
Quote:
Jacob Reimer sighting! Jacob Reimer assigned to @FCLMets (rehab) #Mets
DH and being 5.
Grr. Batting 5th.
kind of amzing jett is still younger than both too. missing this year sucks but it may not end up the worst thing to delay his MLB service time by 1 year staggered a little more from lindor/acuna/mauricio. crazy how good that pick looks relative to how bad parada looks.
Final 2024 MLB draft rankings: Top 250 prospects - ( New Window )
Things change but the original plan was for him to make 5 rehab starts.
Quote:
From Sammons notes Stearns lack of draft success in Milwaukee, Gross’s strength in the draft with Houston and the fact the Mets may go with higher upside/riskier picks this year.
Interesting! I wonder if they're eyeing up someone like Brody Brecht then. Huge FB/SL combo.
Other than being a pitcher with the inherent injury risk, is Brecht really seen as a riskier pitch? IMO, he looks like a very safe pick for a pitcher at that point in the draft.
Quote:
In comment 16549569 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
From Sammons notes Stearns lack of draft success in Milwaukee, Gross’s strength in the draft with Houston and the fact the Mets may go with higher upside/riskier picks this year.
Interesting! I wonder if they're eyeing up someone like Brody Brecht then. Huge FB/SL combo.
Other than being a pitcher with the inherent injury risk, is Brecht really seen as a riskier pitch? IMO, he looks like a very safe pick for a pitcher at that point in the draft.
I was going with the higher upside not the risk part. Since he was splitting time some think he's no where near his ceiling.
Link - ( New Window )
Some names that have been connected to @mets (by others, not by Law) Caldwell #12, Brecht 16, King 17, Benge 18, Lindsay 22 #Mets
Bring him up for Stewart or Gamel please.
@TimBritton
The Mets have acquired Phil Maton from the Rays for cash or a player to be named later. They have designated Joey Lucchesi for assignment.
my guess is he asked for his release or they just did him a kindness bc they felt vasil/butto/etc have passed him. he's always seemed to have a bit of an odd ball personality, obviously they were ready to move on.
Kodai went 2.2 innings, threw 52 pitches/30 for strikes. He finished up with 3 K's and 2 BB. Radio guy was reading the ballpark radar gun at 93-95. The Ghost-fork was really working.
I think Senga ran out of gas in the third inning....he walked the last 2 batters he faced after getting 2 strikes on them.
Some names that have been connected to @mets (by others, not by Law) Caldwell #12, Brecht 16, King 17, Benge 18, Lindsay 22 #Mets
related to Desmond Lindsay? I had such high hopes, lol.
Quote:
Law's draft rankings are up
Some names that have been connected to @mets (by others, not by Law) Caldwell #12, Brecht 16, King 17, Benge 18, Lindsay 22 #Mets
related to Desmond Lindsay? I had such high hopes, lol.
No relation. Two sport kid with legitimate 80 speed, major, major late helium
Consistently injured. Played 260 games over 6 seasons
I get Mets fans are looking for options to upgrade on McNeil/Stewart/etc, and Acuña is one of the Mets only upper level prospects healthy, but he hasn't shown anything to suggest he's close to MLB-ready.”
I get Mets fans are looking for options to upgrade on McNeil/Stewart/etc, and Acuña is one of the Mets only upper level prospects healthy, but he hasn't shown anything to suggest he's close to MLB-ready.”
I was on IG Mets yesterday, and there is just such a misconception out there that Acuna is ready to come up. So many uninformed fans demanding Stearns makes the call to bring him up. Its obnoxious.
There is absolutely nothing in his numbers that suggests he's ready to help a big league team offensively and it's questionable development-wise if it makes sense to have him play sporadically as a bench piece right now. Logic would suggest a 7.0% BB rate in AAA is going to look pretty ugly right now with the big club. Somebody like Ritter or Brosseau likely should be the next man up for now.
and his name is Ace.