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Not good for Rosetti

Angus : 7/4/2024 10:14 pm
I will delete if it has come up already.
Rosetti comments on Wilkins - ( New Window )
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RE: ...  
bw in dc : 7/6/2024 12:34 pm : link
In comment 16548993 christian said:
Quote:
Back to the very simple question Eric -- did Wilkins pass the rusher well last year on third down?


NextGen suggests Wilkins was tremendous passing the rusher on third down. I read where ball carriers were amazed how quickly Wilkins shot through gaps and passed them when they ran by.
i mean literally answered it directly the first time it was asked  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 12:34 pm : link
here's a simple question for you, why do you keep distorting what rossetti actually said?

Counterpoint  
Angus : 7/6/2024 2:44 pm : link
Opinions, everyone has one.
Counterpoint - ( New Window )
RE: i mean literally answered it directly the first time it was asked  
christian : 7/6/2024 4:01 pm : link
In comment 16549011 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
here's a simple question for you, why do you keep distorting what rossetti actually said?

I'm not distorting what he said in the least. Let's try it this way. This is what Rosetti said

Quote:
I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.

Given that 2023 is the most recent data, I'm asking you a question about 2023: Given this information, in 2023 do you think Wilkins was a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down?

Quote:
Wilkins had 27 third-down pressures in 2023 -- tied for second in the NFL amongst interior linemen. Only Quinnen Williams (30) had more, as Wilkins was tied with Chris Jones and DeForest Buckner.

Quote:
Wilkins had 5.5 sacks on third down in addition to those 27 pressures, a pressure rate of 19.0%. He was actually tied for seventh amongst defensive linemen who line up in a three-point stance in sacks on third down (5.5), Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 4:49 pm : link
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.

it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified  
bw in dc : 7/6/2024 4:56 pm : link
In comment 16549106 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.



I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)

RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified  
christian : 7/6/2024 5:13 pm : link
In comment 16549106 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.

it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.

No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?

Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.

Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Answer: Yes

Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
RE: RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 5:19 pm : link
In comment 16549109 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16549106 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.





I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)


QBR had him 6th best in 2022 so according to christian's single season single stat theorem you're right, he should have been paid like a top 6 qb.
RE: RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 5:26 pm : link
In comment 16549116 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16549106 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.

it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.


No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?

Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.

Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Answer: Yes

Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.


if this were an honest question why keep asking it when ive already answered? oh right because it's not a question it's a dodge.

the jones comparison only proves how insane your position that any single stat from 1 season can be as powerful as you believe it to be, that's why i brought it up yesterday long before BW (and he happens to love QBR even more than you love 3rd down pressures).

In comment 16548718 Eric on Li said:
Quote:


and if daniel jones somehow repeats his 2022 i look forward to you considering him a top 6 QB just because 1 stat (QBR) says so.
 
christian : 7/6/2024 5:31 pm : link
Kindly point me to where you answered whether you believe Wilkins was or was not a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down last year.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 5:45 pm : link
In comment 16549130 christian said:
Quote:
Kindly point me to where you answered whether you believe Wilkins was or was not a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down last year.


yesterday's 12:51 post reposted again today at 12:34. you can keep trying to shoehorn the framing to 2023 like that's any less nonsensical than calling jones a top 6 qb based only on 2022 would have been, but i wont continue to belabor, even i have limits.
 
christian : 7/6/2024 6:19 pm : link
I think the most recent data is weighed more heavily in these types of analysis by teams. I don't think it is or should be used on its own. Neither by the dimension of the year nor the single metric.

I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.

To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.

I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.

For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 6:28 pm : link
In comment 16549144 christian said:
Quote:
I think the most recent data is weighed more heavily in these types of analysis by teams. I don't think it is or should be used on its own. Neither by the dimension of the year nor the single metric.

I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.

To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.

I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.

For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.


if he had said "i dont see daniel jones as a top 6 qb" would he have been wrong because there was 1 high quality stat, from only the most recent season and absent from all others since the 2019 draft, that said he was?

because that is your exact logic ITT, and the stat your entire argument is built on is a less comprehensive stat than QBR.
 
christian : 7/6/2024 6:46 pm : link
I think that's a bad comparison. He called out a very specific scenario -- play type (pass) and down (3rd). He also wasn't stack ranking players.

Let's look at a more apples to apples comparison. If he said Daniel Jones wasn't a difference maker passing the ball on the third down -- and in the previous season Jones had a high passer rating, and was a league leader in yard and touchdowns on third down -- I'd criticize that observation too.
 
christian : 7/6/2024 6:47 pm : link
And to be clear, the 3 stats I presented are sacks, pressures, and pressure percentage. Not one single stat.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 6:58 pm : link
In comment 16549160 christian said:
Quote:
And to be clear, the 3 stats I presented are sacks, pressures, and pressure percentage. Not one single stat.


as i have mentioned his pressure percentage isnt very good. i think i posted a screenshot yesterday and it was lowest of all miami pass rushes. his sacks and pressures are partially inflated by having played the 2nd most pass rush snaps of any IDL.

farther there is data we dont have that the teams do. how many of his sacks were clean up sacks? i dont know but from his game log at least a few of them were partials. how many of his pressures were by design on screen plays unblocked? these are all things ive already pointed out. his volume stats are good but boosted by more reps, his rate stats are nowhere near the undisputed difference makers (dex, chris jones, donald, quinnen).
 
christian : 7/6/2024 7:00 pm : link
Was the pressure percentage stat you posted overall or on 3rd down?

This is the third down observation from CBS:

Quote:
Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
 
christian : 7/6/2024 7:04 pm : link
And if we're going to do a situational qualifying and cleansing exercise, are we doing that on every player?
And another  
Angus : 7/6/2024 9:30 pm : link
Jones stuff.
Jones stuff - ( New Window )
across ALL downs there were only 31 interior DL w/ 200+ true pass sets  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 9:55 pm : link
dexter lawrence played 16/17g and only had 176 true pass set snaps. how many DL do you suppose met the criteria for 200 pass rush snaps on just 3rd downs? less than 10? such is the flaw of using small sample sized stats especially if you are using scraps of data without knowing the full set.

here's every DL with more than 300 pass rush reps (all downs) sorted by pressure% (formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer on true pass sets). this was a stat developed by the guy the falcons just hired in their FO. if you got this far you can read the article i posted yesterday if you want to why i trust pff beyond having access to their data - they explain their methodology and validate correlation.

notice how much the top of this list correlates with the guys indisputably considered to be difference making pass rushers? wilkins career year was just 20th at 9.6%. and i just scanned back 2 years, in 2022 he was 50th at 4.1% and 2021 he was closer to this year at 9.0%.



i believe he's also something like the 4th highest rated run defender in the last 3 years by PFF, so this isnt some bias against wilkins. he is a very durable and very good all around player. if he were also a "difference making pass rusher" the dolphins wouldnt have let him go, but like their former employee the guy that drafted him apparently didnt think that.
 
christian : 7/6/2024 10:16 pm : link
Eric, I don't know how much more clearly I can frame this debate. Rosetti posited a very specific criticism, against a very specific scenario. Pass rushing on third down.

If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.

You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.

It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 10:24 pm : link
In comment 16549222 christian said:
Quote:
Eric, I don't know how much more clearly I can frame this debate. Rosetti posited a very specific criticism, against a very specific scenario. Pass rushing on third down.

If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.

You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.

It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.


oh cool we're back to the christian theorem of all you need is 1 stat in a not representative time period. the only thing that's clear is that this was a waste of time.
 
christian : 7/6/2024 10:30 pm : link
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.

Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/6/2024 10:35 pm : link
In comment 16549228 christian said:
Quote:
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.

Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.


and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
...  
christian : 7/7/2024 7:04 am : link
In comment 16549231 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.

Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.

and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.

Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 7/7/2024 10:50 am : link
In comment 16549252 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16549231 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.

Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.

and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.


Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.


ill be impressed if you could observe and take out of context anything else so stupid but from this ive learned not to underestimate you.
 
christian : 7/7/2024 11:21 am : link
I'm impressed you've posted a trillion times on this thread and showcased your third grade drawing skills and offered virtually no opinions or data on Wilkins as a third down pass rusher, the topic of which we're debating.

Why do I get the feeling one of us is laughing, and the other is might need a walk?
pretty sure the guy who needs the walk  
Eric on Li : 7/7/2024 11:56 am : link
is the one who got so triggered by this quote he found a new career as a cirque du soleil contortionist.

Quote:
“This is Dexter’s best friend,” Rossetti said. “I don’t think he’s a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.” He would go on to clarify, though, that he was still a very good football player.
 
christian : 7/7/2024 1:12 pm : link
It's day three, let's try this again. In my best not triggered voice:

Hey Eric on Li -- can you provide evidence that indicates Christian Wilkins is not a good pass rusher on 3rd down?

Is that un-contorted enough for you my complex friend?
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/7/2024 2:25 pm : link
In comment 16549331 christian said:
Quote:
It's day three, let's try this again. In my best not triggered voice:

Hey Eric on Li -- can you provide evidence that indicates Christian Wilkins is not a good pass rusher on 3rd down?

Is that un-contorted enough for you my complex friend?


not really because you contorted the word rossetti actually used "difference making" to merely "good", a lower bar than rossetti's own qualifier that christian wilkins is not just good but "very good".

we can get this to day 4 if you carry on true to form by twisting the argument into a meditation on what truly defines a "difference maker" like it's not a pretty plainly understood concept.
Did we decide if Wilkens is a good pass rusher on third down?  
BrettNYG10 : 7/7/2024 2:55 pm : link
.
 
christian : 7/7/2024 2:56 pm : link
Ah see we're getting somewhere! So difference maker = very good. Excellent.

So now Eric on Li, what are some discreet criteria you would use to determine a player was a very good pass rusher on third down?
 
christian : 7/7/2024 3:07 pm : link
I'll go first -- to get a sense if a player was a very good pass rusher on 3rd down, I would start by looking at how many sacks, pressures, and the percentage of snaps he applied pressure on 3rd down. And where that ranked against other players at the position.

What other things would you look at?
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/7/2024 3:09 pm : link
In comment 16549370 christian said:
Quote:
Ah see we're getting somewhere! So difference maker = very good. Excellent.

So now Eric on Li, what are some discreet criteria you would use to determine a player was a very good pass rusher on third down?



apparently we arent getting anywhere because you cant seem to comprehend the word rossetti used was "difference maker", not good or very good. rossetti said Christian Wilkins is very good but not a difference maker.

my definition of "difference maker" would be exactly how he described chris jones.
RE: Did we decide if Wilkens is a good pass rusher on third down?  
Eric on Li : 7/7/2024 3:10 pm : link
In comment 16549369 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
.


 
christian : 7/7/2024 3:49 pm : link
OK Eric on Li, let's try this way: name an IDL you believe is a difference-making pass rusher.

What are the criteria you would use to determine that distinction?
 
christian : 7/7/2024 3:51 pm : link
*A difference making pass rusher on 3rd down.

Don't want to be accused of circus stuff.
RE: Did we decide if Wilkens is a good pass rusher on third down?  
Joey in VA : 7/7/2024 4:01 pm : link
In comment 16549369 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
.
Yes. Once every 6 years.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/7/2024 4:22 pm : link
In comment 16549384 christian said:
Quote:
OK Eric on Li, let's try this way: name an IDL you believe is a difference-making pass rusher.

What are the criteria you would use to determine that distinction?


maybe instead of counting all my posts/charts you should try reading a few of them. i've mentioned numerous times the same example rossetti described (quote and clip linked below).

Quote:
“We watch the tape. You see Chris Jones getting double-teamed every snap, and then the guy on the other side just has one block. You just imagine that’s Dex with one guy on them every time.” said Rossetti. “The possibilities and the game-wrecking capabilities are there.”


you may also remember seeing chris jones name at the top of all the pff screenshots ive been posted with more sacks, pressures, and higher pressure rate thank wilkins because all his production came in almost 100 fewer pass rush snaps. he has more sacks in the last 2 seasons than wilkins has in his full 5. if you include Wilkins clemson sacks he has a grand total 36 since 2015 between both NFL/CFB. Chris Jones has more than twice as many with 75.5 in the NFL only since 2016.

does it really take 3 days to get to the reality that it's fair to have the opinion that there's a big difference between an obvious difference maker like chris jones and a still very good player like christian wilkins? it's only the same conclusion the dolphins came to in letting wilkins walk.
The Giants going over #Chiefs DT Chris Jones ahead of free agency on Hard Knocks - ( New Window )
Christian vs, Eric on Li...the Toho version.  
Klaatu : 7/7/2024 4:22 pm : link
 
christian : 7/7/2024 4:22 pm : link
And just as a good gesture, I apologize for mixing up the Rosetti criterias. It does appear it goes Very Good -> Difference Making.

And it also appears 3rd down is a uniquely important situation, as he called it out specifically.

So I'll start -- I think a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down is someone who ranks among the top players at his position in sacks, pressures, and pressure percentage.
 
christian : 7/7/2024 4:25 pm : link
Eric I've read all of your posts. I agree, overall Jones is a better player than Wilkins.

Now let's talk about 3rd down, the situation Rosetti called out specifically.

How did Jones's 3rd down numbers compare to Wilkins?
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 7/7/2024 4:42 pm : link
In comment 16549402 christian said:
Quote:
Eric I've read all of your posts. I agree, overall Jones is a better player than Wilkins.

Now let's talk about 3rd down, the situation Rosetti called out specifically.

How did Jones's 3rd down numbers compare to Wilkins?


how many times do i have to tell you i havent seen any public database of 3rd down numbers? if you have anything beyond the flimsy small sample data point this clickbait is based on feel free to share but i im 99.9999% sure there's no data point that will show anything other than a vast difference between jones/wilkins because anyone who has ever watched the 2 players play for more than 5 minutes there's a vast difference between jones/wilkins.

here's a new screenshot for you im not as familiar with espn's methodology but they too show a pretty wide difference between jones/wilkins even in wilkins career season.

RE: Christian vs, Eric on Li...the Toho version.  
Eric on Li : 7/7/2024 4:54 pm : link
In comment 16549399 Klaatu said:
Quote:


just throwing an idea out there do with it what you will, a christian vs eric on li ras card?
If this stellar debate goes on much further you guys will have  
ThomasG : 7/7/2024 5:24 pm : link
the 2024 season’s stats to factor into the equation.
RE: RE: Christian vs, Eric on Li...the Toho version.  
Klaatu : 7/8/2024 6:45 am : link
In comment 16549427 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16549399 Klaatu said:


Quote:






just throwing an idea out there do with it what you will, a christian vs eric on li ras card?




You think too much of me, kid. I'm not that clever.
A virtual waste of time  
section125 : 7/8/2024 7:31 am : link
talking about an overpaid DT and what the definition of "is" is.

Good player, no doubt. Better than average DT, no doubt. Were the Giants ever interested in spending another huge sum for a lesser talent than DexLaw? No. They spent their money on the correct player/position in Burns. Now go find a competent DT that can hold or collapse the middle. Plenty of those(enough anyway) available and Jordon Riley might be that guy.
RE: A virtual waste of time  
HBart : 7/8/2024 8:53 am : link
In comment 16549559 section125 said:
Quote:
talking about an overpaid DT and what the definition of "is" is.

Good player, no doubt. Better than average DT, no doubt. Were the Giants ever interested in spending another huge sum for a lesser talent than DexLaw? No. They spent their money on the correct player/position in Burns. Now go find a competent DT that can hold or collapse the middle. Plenty of those(enough anyway) available and Jordon Riley might be that guy.

Jordan Phillips is that guy. Enormous twinkle toed space eater. Greg Cosell said don't sleep on him. He was a top DT in his draft class (behind Leonard Willians) -- projected to start immediately with unlimited upside. The concern was, while dominant at times, he disappeared the rest of the time. Seems like that continued at this level.

Worst case he's a proven JAG DT whose taken nearly half the snaps on the 3 defenses he's played in to date. It's easy to see why the Giants signed him -- straight up he plugs the Williams hole (literally) with a lesser but athletically gifted (and much larger) rotation player. And while likely is what he is after 7 years in the league, he could surprise playing next to Dex and with Burns and Thibs.

Hree's the post-draft review:

The Dolphins hit it out of the park with their first two picks, while defensive tackle might not have been a ‘need’ position, adding Jordan Phillips gives them a chance to have a dominating front four to challenge any in the league. Phillips is a raw prospect, a true one technique who will command double teams in the run game due to his size, which might not be possible for opponents to manage with Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake also on the line. Phillips biggest strength is against the run where he had a 9.0 run stop percentage against Power 5 teams, the fifth-best mark among defensive tackles in this year's draft.

Depth Chart Fit: As a rotational defensive tackle splitting time with Earl Mitchell, but Phillips has the talent to overtake Mitchell by the end of the season, especially on rushing downs.
Phillips is an intersting point since pass rush is his best thing  
Eric on Li : 7/8/2024 11:40 am : link
or at least his most statistically appealing one. on true pass sets his numbers compare reasonably similar to wilkins (9.2% win rate vs 11.1%). so if nyg were looking to fill a role of 200 obvious pass rush snaps next year and wiklins had another career year, the difference could have been as low as 4 fewer "wins" (and correspondingly pressures) agains the guy blocking him. and that's not even a guarantee bc in 2022 phillips actually had the slightly higher 8.4% win rate vs wilkins 8.2%.



phillips is obviously older, not as durable, and not nearly the player wilkins is vs the run. probably the only way he measures up is that so far per pass rush down he's held up to be similarly productive. it seems like pretty savvy ROI to have been able to add him as a role player + burns for the same $ as wilkins if improving pass rush is the main goal. the downside is the run D if they cant find a good DL to rotate early down. or if he cant make it through the season effectively due to age/durability.
Thanks for posting the numbers Eric  
HBart : 7/8/2024 12:50 pm : link
Funnily, Wilkins was the next DT after Phillips the Dolphins spent a high pick on.

The HK clip was nice TV with the Dex/Wilkins angle, but I doubt the Giants seriously considered Wilkins or another big dollar DT. The need was always edge -- our 4-man rush was feeble with Dex + Big Cat.
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