that daniel jones was a top 6 qb just because 1 reputable stat (qbr) said so? were we to ignore any other dispositive stats?
jrud is correct - this is muckraking, clickbait, or whatever other word you want to use for a manufactured faux outrage. which you are then twisting farther into a pretzel specifying qualifiers on rossetti's comments that he didn't make.
just curious though are you high enough on your own supply that you think the giants erred in not signing wilkins and keeping the 2nd round pick that went to burns? if you believe he's a difference making pass rusher in addition to the fact that he's always been a very good player against the run, keeping that 2nd round pick seems like a no brainer?
Rosetti was assessing one very specific part of Wilkin's game (pass rush on 3rd down), so I don't think a broad measurement like QBR is a good analogue.
If you have counter metrics that show Wilkins was a poor pass rusher on 3rd down last year, let's debate those. Everything I've seen you post is about his pass rush measurements in sum, which of course is not what we're debating or what was claimed.
And please, show me the qualifiers I am twisting that he didn't make.
Quote:
I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
Eric on Li -- if Rosetti said Jones is not a good third down passer, but he was top 5 in yards and TDs on third down -- I would find that silly too.
Why did Williams net a 2nd round pick? Because the Giants paid all but the pro rated portion of his salary and Seattle got 10 games of his services.
Why did the Dolphins choose not to pay Wilkins and the Raiders did? I imagine Fewell projects him to play a similar role to Williams in 2020, and that he can get similar results in his 6th year.
our replies crossed but you seem to be missing the point w/ the jones comparison while tripling down on the cherry picking. you seem to have an unrealistic expectation that every opinion has to line up with every stat which is never the case. there are always contradictions because no stats are perfect.
its possible wilkins is reaching some new level and got taken for granted. steelers did that with hargrave and if you've seen enough of wilkins that you believe that's what's happening all the power to you. but for the nth time, the better predictive stats for pass rush are the ones he that contradict his gross pressures ranking which is no doubt somewhat inflated by the volume of snaps he played. his old team and their inability to tag/trade him indicate most of the league would seem to be betting against the assessment made by AP/patrick graham (and his alter ego perry fewell). True pass sets and their importance to player evaluation - ( New Window )
I have no unrealistic expectations, I am actually simply debating the very specific criticism Rosetti made of Wilkins.
He stated in the most specific terms he wasn't a difference-making player maker on 3rd down. The counting stats told otherwise last year.
I am not making a broader assessment of him as a player. I haven't researched his performance as a pass rusher on 1st and 2nd down. I haven't researched his run stopping ability.
I don't have a strong opinion on his efficacy as a defender vs. Burns or the projected ROI. And I'm certainly not outraged or twisting anything.
I'm simply questioning if a guy who is top 5 in the pass rush counting stats from his position, in the situation described isn't a difference maker.
Rosetti was assessing one very specific part of Wilkin's game (pass rush on 3rd down), so I don't think a broad measurement like QBR is a good analogue.
If you have counter metrics that show Wilkins was a poor pass rusher on 3rd down last year, let's debate those. Everything I've seen you post is about his pass rush measurements in sum, which of course is not what we're debating or what was claimed.
And please, show me the qualifiers I am twisting that he didn't make.
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I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
despite what a few posters insinuated, I thought Rosetti came off very well.
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
With the likes of McCloud, Pinnock and Cager, now we know why the Giants have been a scrap heap. Perhaps it's just been a bit better of a scrap heap than in previous years, that has some fans thinking mcclouded. 2024 will tell if they can rise above the scrap heap, known as about 26 of 32 NFL teams.
Lol did you even read my point? You clearly didn't comprehend it...
My point is when judging Rosetti and the pro personnel department, they have done GOOD things under this regime.
I know it's hard to come to terms with that - they are a small piece of the greater puzzle when it comes to success of the entire team..
What did you expect from 5 waiver pickups on cut day in 2022? To me they exceeded expectations...that's good on the pro scouting staff...
What free agent hasn't panned out for this team thus far, or didn't live up to their contract given? The only one I can think of is Glowinski, and of course you can't bat 1.000....
Your comment is asinine when it's intention is to give well earned kudos to the ONE department on this team that imo is actually doing a pretty good job.
i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
1) Rosetti directly referred to his 3rd down pass rush ability, so this debate isn't about how you or I feel that may or may not extend to first and second down
2) You also only posted 2023 numbers
So what's more germane to a conversation about his 3rd down pass rush ability?
A) His 2023 3rd down pass rush numbers
B) His 2023 overall pash rush numbers
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
What free agent hasn't panned out for this team thus far, or didn't live up to their contract given? The only one I can think of is Glowinski, and of course you can't bat 1.000....
Pro scouting has a hand in all veteran acquisitions. Glowinksi, Campbell, and Waller all to various degrees were disappointing.
On the other hand Okereke, Pinnock, and Robinson were successes relative to cost.
i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
1) Rosetti directly referred to his 3rd down pass rush ability, so this debate isn't about how you or I feel that may or may not extend to first and second down
2) You also only posted 2023 numbers
So what's more germane to a conversation about his 3rd down pass rush ability?
A) His 2023 3rd down pass rush numbers
B) His 2023 overall pash rush numbers
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?). ive seen a good amount of wilkins over more than a half decade and i see a player more in the dalvin tomlinson neighborhood, though he may be the nicest house on that block. a very good 3 down player who is highly active but not a particularly notable pass rusher.
at age 30 tomlinson has 80m+ in career earnings and just signed a 4 year deal for 57m heading into his 8th year, so he's no slouch. but unless he underwent some kind of late career hargrave transformation he's just not a difference making pass rusher no matter how many more snaps he plays at his same rates to work his way up a pressures leaderboard. they both had almost exactly the same rate stats in pressures, hits, hurries last year, wilkins just played 200 more snaps. all very similar to the stats/rates tomlinson posted his final year as a nyg.
and a Fan Nation article where some up and coming schlub thought he could generate some traffic from what can be interpreted as a snub. It's sports muckraking, and it certainly doesn't deserve your attention let alone fucking statistical analysis.
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Williams was always going to command 20M AAV if he had a good season.
Quote:
christian : 6/11/2023 9:57 am : link
In comment 16131243 Klaatu said:
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I think the Giants would be open to a two-year extension with money/terms favorable to them, but as christian said above, that's probably not what Williams is looking for.
Williams's agent Roosevelt Barnes is a titan in the industry and one of the best.
This situation isn't unlike 2020 when Williams got tagged. Team Williams was comfortable betting on him, while taking a nice one year sum.
Williams has no incentive to restructure at some bargain rate unless the Giants are serious about cutting him.
Maybe Schoen is a ruthless dog and threatens that on June 11. That would be a reputation killer for him, and not worth saving a few bucks this year.
Ultimately Team Williams is looking at that Hargrove deal and knows if Williams has a good season there's a big market out there.
I don't think the OTC methodology is great but it's directionally helpful, they valued him at 14.5. I thought it was a lock he got 20M+ which he did.
Above average seasons by Leo in every year except one
when he brought it all season. And that one is just a classic example of what his talent ceiling could reach, but only after he calculated what elite money would provide him.
Leo did very well for himself and found just the right place to take advantage of a weak GM.
Of a nobody fan wearing out Rosetti over one sentence of a who knows how long discussion, it is surely possible that Wilkins becomes a Dex-like beast worth every nickel of his $85 million while Burns takes his $85 million and shits the bed. Then everyone involved will look like idiots in hindsight.
But in foresight, going with an already-proven bordering-on-elite edge penetrator versus a top run defender inside guy who put up rush numbers in his walk year is an easily defensible decision. Especially for the Giants given their roster makeup. Just as it was for the Dolphins - and they're paying peanuts for Sieler who put up better numbers.
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Why did Rosetti call out a particular down?
jfc have you forgotten everything you know about football or are you being obtuse?
he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
perhaps you've once or twice or a million times heard the phrase "1st/2nd down run stuffer" or maybe that's where this football 101 continues for you, wiklins isnt that but he also isn't a designated pass rusher who never comes off the field on passing downs. he's a balanced 3 down player not unlike cofield/robbins (robbins 25 sacks as a giant are 4.5 more than wilkins 20.5 as a dolphin in just 12 fewer games).
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Quote:
he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
Of a nobody fan wearing out Rosetti over one sentence of a who knows how long discussion, it is surely possible that Wilkins becomes a Dex-like beast worth every nickel of his $85 million while Burns takes his $85 million and shits the bed. Then everyone involved will look like idiots in hindsight.
But in foresight, going with an already-proven bordering-on-elite edge penetrator versus a top run defender inside guy who put up rush numbers in his walk year is an easily defensible decision. Especially for the Giants given their roster makeup. Just as it was for the Dolphins - and they're paying peanuts for Sieler who put up better numbers.
I could see wilkins ending up like Hargraves, whose 2nd free agent contract last year ended up bigger than his 1st free agent contract coming from the Steelers where he'd played more of a 2 gap run stuffing role. The eagles let him penetrate more and he thrived.
it's not the worst gamble because he has a really high floor but it's totally speculative and against the odds, over his career and even in his career pass rushing year, he has never reached the level guys like dex, simmons, quinnen, chris jones etc and that's how he got paid. statistically leonard williams is/was a better pass rusher.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Quote:
he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
You're confusing me.
no you're being obtuse. it really is not a hard concept to understand, the players talent doesn't change down to down. a great pass rusher is a great pass rusher any down.
what changes down to down is the situation. stopping the run, which wilkins is best at, is more important on early downs, rushing the passer, which wilkins statistically has never been as good at is more important on 3rd downs.
at this point the horse is dead, if you want to swallow the clickbait whole that's your choice.
Back to the very simple question Eric -- did Wilkins pass the rusher well last year on third down?
yes by all means lets go back to the same stupid question ive already answered yet you keep choosing to frame in a different way than what rossetti actually said.
Back to the very simple question Eric -- did Wilkins pass the rusher well last year on third down?
NextGen suggests Wilkins was tremendous passing the rusher on third down. I read where ball carriers were amazed how quickly Wilkins shot through gaps and passed them when they ran by.
i mean literally answered it directly the first time it was asked
here's a simple question for you, why do you keep distorting what rossetti actually said?
I'm not distorting what he said in the least. Let's try it this way. This is what Rosetti said
Quote:
I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
Given that 2023 is the most recent data, I'm asking you a question about 2023: Given this information, in 2023 do you think Wilkins was a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down?
Quote:
Wilkins had 27 third-down pressures in 2023 -- tied for second in the NFL amongst interior linemen. Only Quinnen Williams (30) had more, as Wilkins was tied with Chris Jones and DeForest Buckner.
Quote:
Wilkins had 5.5 sacks on third down in addition to those 27 pressures, a pressure rate of 19.0%. He was actually tied for seventh amongst defensive linemen who line up in a three-point stance in sacks on third down (5.5), Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)
RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.
Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year? Answer: Yes
Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
RE: RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)
QBR had him 6th best in 2022 so according to christian's single season single stat theorem you're right, he should have been paid like a top 6 qb.
RE: RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.
Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Answer: Yes
Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
if this were an honest question why keep asking it when ive already answered? oh right because it's not a question it's a dodge.
the jones comparison only proves how insane your position that any single stat from 1 season can be as powerful as you believe it to be, that's why i brought it up yesterday long before BW (and he happens to love QBR even more than you love 3rd down pressures).
Kindly point me to where you answered whether you believe Wilkins was or was not a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down last year.
yesterday's 12:51 post reposted again today at 12:34. you can keep trying to shoehorn the framing to 2023 like that's any less nonsensical than calling jones a top 6 qb based only on 2022 would have been, but i wont continue to belabor, even i have limits.
I think the most recent data is weighed more heavily in these types of analysis by teams. I don't think it is or should be used on its own. Neither by the dimension of the year nor the single metric.
I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.
To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.
I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.
For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
I think the most recent data is weighed more heavily in these types of analysis by teams. I don't think it is or should be used on its own. Neither by the dimension of the year nor the single metric.
I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.
To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.
I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.
For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
if he had said "i dont see daniel jones as a top 6 qb" would he have been wrong because there was 1 high quality stat, from only the most recent season and absent from all others since the 2019 draft, that said he was?
because that is your exact logic ITT, and the stat your entire argument is built on is a less comprehensive stat than QBR.
I think that's a bad comparison. He called out a very specific scenario -- play type (pass) and down (3rd). He also wasn't stack ranking players.
Let's look at a more apples to apples comparison. If he said Daniel Jones wasn't a difference maker passing the ball on the third down -- and in the previous season Jones had a high passer rating, and was a league leader in yard and touchdowns on third down -- I'd criticize that observation too.
And to be clear, the 3 stats I presented are sacks, pressures, and pressure percentage. Not one single stat.
as i have mentioned his pressure percentage isnt very good. i think i posted a screenshot yesterday and it was lowest of all miami pass rushes. his sacks and pressures are partially inflated by having played the 2nd most pass rush snaps of any IDL.
farther there is data we dont have that the teams do. how many of his sacks were clean up sacks? i dont know but from his game log at least a few of them were partials. how many of his pressures were by design on screen plays unblocked? these are all things ive already pointed out. his volume stats are good but boosted by more reps, his rate stats are nowhere near the undisputed difference makers (dex, chris jones, donald, quinnen).
Was the pressure percentage stat you posted overall or on 3rd down?
This is the third down observation from CBS:
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Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
dexter lawrence played 16/17g and only had 176 true pass set snaps. how many DL do you suppose met the criteria for 200 pass rush snaps on just 3rd downs? less than 10? such is the flaw of using small sample sized stats especially if you are using scraps of data without knowing the full set.
here's every DL with more than 300 pass rush reps (all downs) sorted by pressure% (formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer on true pass sets). this was a stat developed by the guy the falcons just hired in their FO. if you got this far you can read the article i posted yesterday if you want to why i trust pff beyond having access to their data - they explain their methodology and validate correlation.
notice how much the top of this list correlates with the guys indisputably considered to be difference making pass rushers? wilkins career year was just 20th at 9.6%. and i just scanned back 2 years, in 2022 he was 50th at 4.1% and 2021 he was closer to this year at 9.0%.
i believe he's also something like the 4th highest rated run defender in the last 3 years by PFF, so this isnt some bias against wilkins. he is a very durable and very good all around player. if he were also a "difference making pass rusher" the dolphins wouldnt have let him go, but like their former employee the guy that drafted him apparently didnt think that.
Eric, I don't know how much more clearly I can frame this debate. Rosetti posited a very specific criticism, against a very specific scenario. Pass rushing on third down.
If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.
You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.
It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
Eric, I don't know how much more clearly I can frame this debate. Rosetti posited a very specific criticism, against a very specific scenario. Pass rushing on third down.
If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.
You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.
It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
oh cool we're back to the christian theorem of all you need is 1 stat in a not representative time period. the only thing that's clear is that this was a waste of time.
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
ill be impressed if you could observe and take out of context anything else so stupid but from this ive learned not to underestimate you.
jrud is correct - this is muckraking, clickbait, or whatever other word you want to use for a manufactured faux outrage. which you are then twisting farther into a pretzel specifying qualifiers on rossetti's comments that he didn't make.
just curious though are you high enough on your own supply that you think the giants erred in not signing wilkins and keeping the 2nd round pick that went to burns? if you believe he's a difference making pass rusher in addition to the fact that he's always been a very good player against the run, keeping that 2nd round pick seems like a no brainer?
If you have counter metrics that show Wilkins was a poor pass rusher on 3rd down last year, let's debate those. Everything I've seen you post is about his pass rush measurements in sum, which of course is not what we're debating or what was claimed.
And please, show me the qualifiers I am twisting that he didn't make.
Why did Williams net a 2nd round pick? Because the Giants paid all but the pro rated portion of his salary and Seattle got 10 games of his services.
Why did the Dolphins choose not to pay Wilkins and the Raiders did? I imagine Fewell projects him to play a similar role to Williams in 2020, and that he can get similar results in his 6th year.
our replies crossed but you seem to be missing the point w/ the jones comparison while tripling down on the cherry picking. you seem to have an unrealistic expectation that every opinion has to line up with every stat which is never the case. there are always contradictions because no stats are perfect.
its possible wilkins is reaching some new level and got taken for granted. steelers did that with hargrave and if you've seen enough of wilkins that you believe that's what's happening all the power to you. but for the nth time, the better predictive stats for pass rush are the ones he that contradict his gross pressures ranking which is no doubt somewhat inflated by the volume of snaps he played. his old team and their inability to tag/trade him indicate most of the league would seem to be betting against the assessment made by AP/patrick graham (and his alter ego perry fewell).
True pass sets and their importance to player evaluation - ( New Window )
He stated in the most specific terms he wasn't a difference-making player maker on 3rd down. The counting stats told otherwise last year.
I am not making a broader assessment of him as a player. I haven't researched his performance as a pass rusher on 1st and 2nd down. I haven't researched his run stopping ability.
I don't have a strong opinion on his efficacy as a defender vs. Burns or the projected ROI. And I'm certainly not outraged or twisting anything.
I'm simply questioning if a guy who is top 5 in the pass rush counting stats from his position, in the situation described isn't a difference maker.
If you have counter metrics that show Wilkins was a poor pass rusher on 3rd down last year, let's debate those. Everything I've seen you post is about his pass rush measurements in sum, which of course is not what we're debating or what was claimed.
And please, show me the qualifiers I am twisting that he didn't make.
Quote:
I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
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despite what a few posters insinuated, I thought Rosetti came off very well.
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
With the likes of McCloud, Pinnock and Cager, now we know why the Giants have been a scrap heap. Perhaps it's just been a bit better of a scrap heap than in previous years, that has some fans thinking mcclouded. 2024 will tell if they can rise above the scrap heap, known as about 26 of 32 NFL teams.
Lol did you even read my point? You clearly didn't comprehend it...
My point is when judging Rosetti and the pro personnel department, they have done GOOD things under this regime.
I know it's hard to come to terms with that - they are a small piece of the greater puzzle when it comes to success of the entire team..
What did you expect from 5 waiver pickups on cut day in 2022? To me they exceeded expectations...that's good on the pro scouting staff...
What free agent hasn't panned out for this team thus far, or didn't live up to their contract given? The only one I can think of is Glowinski, and of course you can't bat 1.000....
Your comment is asinine when it's intention is to give well earned kudos to the ONE department on this team that imo is actually doing a pretty good job.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
1) Rosetti directly referred to his 3rd down pass rush ability, so this debate isn't about how you or I feel that may or may not extend to first and second down
2) You also only posted 2023 numbers
So what's more germane to a conversation about his 3rd down pass rush ability?
A) His 2023 3rd down pass rush numbers
B) His 2023 overall pash rush numbers
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
Pro scouting has a hand in all veteran acquisitions. Glowinksi, Campbell, and Waller all to various degrees were disappointing.
On the other hand Okereke, Pinnock, and Robinson were successes relative to cost.
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i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
1) Rosetti directly referred to his 3rd down pass rush ability, so this debate isn't about how you or I feel that may or may not extend to first and second down
2) You also only posted 2023 numbers
So what's more germane to a conversation about his 3rd down pass rush ability?
A) His 2023 3rd down pass rush numbers
B) His 2023 overall pash rush numbers
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?). ive seen a good amount of wilkins over more than a half decade and i see a player more in the dalvin tomlinson neighborhood, though he may be the nicest house on that block. a very good 3 down player who is highly active but not a particularly notable pass rusher.
at age 30 tomlinson has 80m+ in career earnings and just signed a 4 year deal for 57m heading into his 8th year, so he's no slouch. but unless he underwent some kind of late career hargrave transformation he's just not a difference making pass rusher no matter how many more snaps he plays at his same rates to work his way up a pressures leaderboard. they both had almost exactly the same rate stats in pressures, hits, hurries last year, wilkins just played 200 more snaps. all very similar to the stats/rates tomlinson posted his final year as a nyg.
You win this thread.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Why did Rosetti call out a particular down?
Last year he was pretty good on third down. It's a weird thing to criticize coming off a year when the guy was quite good at it.
Which again, isn't some tragedy of a comment. It's a silly comment.
Still think the Giants need an impact DT/5T player. Perhaps a surprise on the roster or they address it next draft.
Keep adding impact front 7 players. Good DC's will find a way to use them.
Leonard Williams was never underrated on the field, only at the negotiating table.
And the Giants got played paying a good DT elite money. How surprising.
In comment 16131243 Klaatu said:
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I think the Giants would be open to a two-year extension with money/terms favorable to them, but as christian said above, that's probably not what Williams is looking for.
Williams's agent Roosevelt Barnes is a titan in the industry and one of the best.
This situation isn't unlike 2020 when Williams got tagged. Team Williams was comfortable betting on him, while taking a nice one year sum.
Williams has no incentive to restructure at some bargain rate unless the Giants are serious about cutting him.
Maybe Schoen is a ruthless dog and threatens that on June 11. That would be a reputation killer for him, and not worth saving a few bucks this year.
Ultimately Team Williams is looking at that Hargrove deal and knows if Williams has a good season there's a big market out there.
I don't think the OTC methodology is great but it's directionally helpful, they valued him at 14.5. I thought it was a lock he got 20M+ which he did.
Leo did very well for himself and found just the right place to take advantage of a weak GM.
But in foresight, going with an already-proven bordering-on-elite edge penetrator versus a top run defender inside guy who put up rush numbers in his walk year is an easily defensible decision. Especially for the Giants given their roster makeup. Just as it was for the Dolphins - and they're paying peanuts for Sieler who put up better numbers.
Yes, that's exactly what's being debated and concluded on this thread.
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I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Why did Rosetti call out a particular down?
jfc have you forgotten everything you know about football or are you being obtuse?
he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
perhaps you've once or twice or a million times heard the phrase "1st/2nd down run stuffer" or maybe that's where this football 101 continues for you, wiklins isnt that but he also isn't a designated pass rusher who never comes off the field on passing downs. he's a balanced 3 down player not unlike cofield/robbins (robbins 25 sacks as a giant are 4.5 more than wilkins 20.5 as a dolphin in just 12 fewer games).
You're confusing me.
But in foresight, going with an already-proven bordering-on-elite edge penetrator versus a top run defender inside guy who put up rush numbers in his walk year is an easily defensible decision. Especially for the Giants given their roster makeup. Just as it was for the Dolphins - and they're paying peanuts for Sieler who put up better numbers.
I could see wilkins ending up like Hargraves, whose 2nd free agent contract last year ended up bigger than his 1st free agent contract coming from the Steelers where he'd played more of a 2 gap run stuffing role. The eagles let him penetrate more and he thrived.
it's not the worst gamble because he has a really high floor but it's totally speculative and against the odds, over his career and even in his career pass rushing year, he has never reached the level guys like dex, simmons, quinnen, chris jones etc and that's how he got paid. statistically leonard williams is/was a better pass rusher.
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im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
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he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
You're confusing me.
no you're being obtuse. it really is not a hard concept to understand, the players talent doesn't change down to down. a great pass rusher is a great pass rusher any down.
what changes down to down is the situation. stopping the run, which wilkins is best at, is more important on early downs, rushing the passer, which wilkins statistically has never been as good at is more important on 3rd downs.
at this point the horse is dead, if you want to swallow the clickbait whole that's your choice.
yes by all means lets go back to the same stupid question ive already answered yet you keep choosing to frame in a different way than what rossetti actually said.
NextGen suggests Wilkins was tremendous passing the rusher on third down. I read where ball carriers were amazed how quickly Wilkins shot through gaps and passed them when they ran by.
Counterpoint - ( New Window )
I'm not distorting what he said in the least. Let's try it this way. This is what Rosetti said
Given that 2023 is the most recent data, I'm asking you a question about 2023: Given this information, in 2023 do you think Wilkins was a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down?
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.
Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Answer: Yes
Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
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no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)
QBR had him 6th best in 2022 so according to christian's single season single stat theorem you're right, he should have been paid like a top 6 qb.
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no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.
Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Answer: Yes
Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
if this were an honest question why keep asking it when ive already answered? oh right because it's not a question it's a dodge.
the jones comparison only proves how insane your position that any single stat from 1 season can be as powerful as you believe it to be, that's why i brought it up yesterday long before BW (and he happens to love QBR even more than you love 3rd down pressures).
In comment 16548718 Eric on Li said:
and if daniel jones somehow repeats his 2022 i look forward to you considering him a top 6 QB just because 1 stat (QBR) says so.
yesterday's 12:51 post reposted again today at 12:34. you can keep trying to shoehorn the framing to 2023 like that's any less nonsensical than calling jones a top 6 qb based only on 2022 would have been, but i wont continue to belabor, even i have limits.
I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.
To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.
I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.
For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.
To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.
I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.
For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
if he had said "i dont see daniel jones as a top 6 qb" would he have been wrong because there was 1 high quality stat, from only the most recent season and absent from all others since the 2019 draft, that said he was?
because that is your exact logic ITT, and the stat your entire argument is built on is a less comprehensive stat than QBR.
Let's look at a more apples to apples comparison. If he said Daniel Jones wasn't a difference maker passing the ball on the third down -- and in the previous season Jones had a high passer rating, and was a league leader in yard and touchdowns on third down -- I'd criticize that observation too.
as i have mentioned his pressure percentage isnt very good. i think i posted a screenshot yesterday and it was lowest of all miami pass rushes. his sacks and pressures are partially inflated by having played the 2nd most pass rush snaps of any IDL.
farther there is data we dont have that the teams do. how many of his sacks were clean up sacks? i dont know but from his game log at least a few of them were partials. how many of his pressures were by design on screen plays unblocked? these are all things ive already pointed out. his volume stats are good but boosted by more reps, his rate stats are nowhere near the undisputed difference makers (dex, chris jones, donald, quinnen).
This is the third down observation from CBS:
Jones stuff - ( New Window )
here's every DL with more than 300 pass rush reps (all downs) sorted by pressure% (formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer on true pass sets). this was a stat developed by the guy the falcons just hired in their FO. if you got this far you can read the article i posted yesterday if you want to why i trust pff beyond having access to their data - they explain their methodology and validate correlation.
notice how much the top of this list correlates with the guys indisputably considered to be difference making pass rushers? wilkins career year was just 20th at 9.6%. and i just scanned back 2 years, in 2022 he was 50th at 4.1% and 2021 he was closer to this year at 9.0%.
i believe he's also something like the 4th highest rated run defender in the last 3 years by PFF, so this isnt some bias against wilkins. he is a very durable and very good all around player. if he were also a "difference making pass rusher" the dolphins wouldnt have let him go, but like their former employee the guy that drafted him apparently didnt think that.
If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.
You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.
It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.
You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.
It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
oh cool we're back to the christian theorem of all you need is 1 stat in a not representative time period. the only thing that's clear is that this was a waste of time.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
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No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
ill be impressed if you could observe and take out of context anything else so stupid but from this ive learned not to underestimate you.