The Mets should trade Pete Alonso before the trade deadline for multiple reasons:
1. Alonso turns 30 next year and sluggers rarely age well enough to justify a long-term pricy contract at that age.
2. Alonso does one thing, and only, one thing well. He does not hit for average, his on-base percentage is mediocre, he's been a poor clutch hitter, he's a below average fielder, and can't run a lick.
3. He's not the team leader. Lindor and Nimmo run the show, rightfully so. The whole humping the dugout fence and LFGM bullshit does not scream maturity, nor cohesiveness.
4. The money he's looking for is prohibitive for someone with a declining WAR and Boras will look to scoop up every last dollar he can for Alonso.
5. Though I would strongly argue against it, they can re-sign Alonso next year if the market cools. But the Mets cannot make the same mistake the G-Men did by not trading Barkley when they had little intention of re-signing him during the off-season.
The Mets should try to again strengthen the farm system through this trade. Move Vientos to first base, bring Baty back up to play third and let the rest of the season play out. Stearns wanted to use this season as an evaluation tool for the future. If Alonso isn't part of that future, the time to strike is now.
If we see the negatives, other teams do as well
If we see the negatives, other teams do as well
Not looking for a huge return. A couple of High A prospects would do. And although I do point out some serious negatives, he does hit project to hit another 15-20 dingers this year, which could help some teams stay in the wildcard race.
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would you expect as a return for Alonso?
If we see the negatives, other teams do as well
Not looking for a huge return. A couple of High A prospects would do. And although I do point out some serious negatives, he does hit project to hit another 15-20 dingers this year, which could help some teams stay in the wildcard race.
So you would trade the only true 40-50 HR power hitter the team has ever had for a couple of A-ball prospects. Glad AF
now it's complicated.
The best you can hope for is probably a young player with a high ceiling. You're not going to get anything premium.
Trading him is not a terrible idea, but I think the best timing for this has already passed.
But those kind of trades don't always work out to the team's benefit. Washington traded Juan Soto AND Josh Bell. And in return they got a SS in Abrams, a middling LH Pitcher in Gore, and a possibly talented young OF in James Wood.
For Soto, one of the best players in baseball.
Oakland traded Matt Olson to the Braves. They got back Pache (no longer with Oakland), Catcher Langoliers, and two lesser Pitching prospects. Meanwhile, Olson is putting up pretty good numbers.
I'm sure there are other examples of lop-sided trades. But I'm not sending Pete away for a couple of A-ball players.
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This is the correct take.
Unless he gets a decent return, what’s the point? Yeah, let’s weaken this year’s team for a couple of minor leaguers who will likely never sniff Citi Field doesn’t sound like a great strategy.
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would you expect as a return for Alonso?
If we see the negatives, other teams do as well
Not looking for a huge return. A couple of High A prospects would do. And although I do point out some serious negatives, he does hit project to hit another 15-20 dingers this year, which could help some teams stay in the wildcard race
Yeah, like maybe his current one?
Plus you're underestimating his defense. He's no Keith Hernandez, but he's worked hard to become a pretty solid fielder. He's not a liability any more.
lol
I see that money being more impactful elsewhere.
He is not purely one dimensional, but when you look at his fWAR he's not really enough of a difference maker, I'd just assume re-sign JDM to be the DH and make Vientos the 1B. Use the Alonso money on pitching.
I view Alonso as similar but lesser than Vlad Guerrero Jr and rumors are the Blue Jays are shopping Vlad - and he's got 1.5 more seasons under contract and is younger than Pete.
I wouldn't give him away but I also don't expect a great return. I would love a reliable 8th inning guy and a prospect if that's not asking too much.
2. money wise you are unlikely to find a better/younger hitter to pay (list probably starts and ends with soto).
3. the only teams trading for him are going to be contenders, meaning they are unlikely to give up any important part of their existing mlb roster.
vientos' emergence along with the depth of IF prospects makes it worth considering, but it's a longshot you are going to get anyone willing to give up a prospect good enough to do it. It's arguable that the prospects Matt Olson returned would justify it and his value was a lot higher at the time being younger and with 2 years under contract.
since the start of 2022 no player in MLB has more RBIs than Alonso. for whatever his short comings, that is a not an insignificant point to consider before trading him.
I see that money being more impactful elsewhere.
He is not purely one dimensional, but when you look at his fWAR he's not really enough of a difference maker, I'd just assume re-sign JDM to be the DH and make Vientos the 1B. Use the Alonso money on pitching.
I view Alonso as similar but lesser than Vlad Guerrero Jr and rumors are the Blue Jays are shopping Vlad - and he's got 1.5 more seasons under contract and is younger than Pete.
I wouldn't give him away but I also don't expect a great return. I would love a reliable 8th inning guy and a prospect if that's not asking too much.
Wonder what a vlad Jr package would look like from the Mets (even better if Pete was part of the deal)
now it's complicated.
Last year, for sure.
that is worth almost nothing relative to what they would get even in a rental - think 90-120 range type player in consensus rankings plus a lottery ticket guy IMO
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Do you guys believe that the Mets would make a qualifying offer to Pete Alonso at year end? Unfortunately the compensation for losing a player after they reject the offer is an extra fifth round pick but its better than losing him for nothing Link - ( New Window )
that is worth almost nothing relative to what they would get even in a rental - think 90-120 range type player in consensus rankings plus a lottery ticket guy IMO
in addition to the value of his production for the last 60 games of course - not sure if it really changes the liklihood he signs with the Mets in the off season
Hey no reason to be a dick. I'm cool with a difference of opinion. Or you could just shut the fuck up. Either way works for me.
This..
It's conjecture, but I think Pete will play better with a contract in place...he seems like the sort that will relax and really thrive with security.
Since 2018 he has the 4th most homers (210) and 8th most RBI's in all of MLB...you don't replace this sort of production easily
Yes, he's not had a great year, but at this rate he'd end up with 32 home runs and 88 RBI's..a down year for him.
As someone mentioned, the return for deadline trade would likely be meager.
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Offer him an extension during the ASB for 5 or 6 years. Let him know he's wanted. Give him a qualifying offer. If he declines it, you get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. Nobody will outspend the Mets if they want him back. Boras clients didn't exactly do well this past off-season. Cohen will give him the big bucks if he deserves it. Uncle Steve is on record saying as much. What Pete needs to do is play better. That's the bottom line.
This..
It's conjecture, but I think Pete will play better with a contract in place...he seems like the sort that will relax and really thrive with security.
Since 2018 he has the 4th most homers (210) and 8th most RBI's in all of MLB...you don't replace this sort of production easily
Yes, he's not had a great year, but at this rate he'd end up with 32 home runs and 88 RBI's..a down year for him.
As someone mentioned, the return for deadline trade would likely be meager.
he didnt play in the big leagues until 2019. from 2019 to now he is #1 in rbis. also #1 in homers.
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In comment 16550373 Optimus-NY said:
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Offer him an extension during the ASB for 5 or 6 years. Let him know he's wanted. Give him a qualifying offer. If he declines it, you get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. Nobody will outspend the Mets if they want him back. Boras clients didn't exactly do well this past off-season. Cohen will give him the big bucks if he deserves it. Uncle Steve is on record saying as much. What Pete needs to do is play better. That's the bottom line.
This..
It's conjecture, but I think Pete will play better with a contract in place...he seems like the sort that will relax and really thrive with security.
Since 2018 he has the 4th most homers (210) and 8th most RBI's in all of MLB...you don't replace this sort of production easily
Yes, he's not had a great year, but at this rate he'd end up with 32 home runs and 88 RBI's..a down year for him.
As someone mentioned, the return for deadline trade would likely be meager.
he didnt play in the big leagues until 2019. from 2019 to now he is #1 in rbis. also #1 in homers.
Thanks for the clarification! I just punched in 2018 for most HR and was actually surprised he was 4th.
So, even harder to replace....thanks, Eric!
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Hey no reason to be a dick. I'm cool with a difference of opinion. Or you could just shut the fuck up. Either way works for me.
Why this hostility towards the Constitutional clause of free speech? Are you a domestic enemy of the Constitution?
If you select a user name like that, shouldn't you expect a mild and amusing ribbing every so often? A bit butt hurt?
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In comment 16550322 BigBlue7 said:
Maggot Brain is a record by Funkadelic which happens to contain one of the greatest guitar solos of all time. As far as the Constitution goes. you're right. So you can fuck all the way off too. Go troll on X, clown.
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Hey no reason to be a dick. I'm cool with a difference of opinion. Or you could just shut the fuck up. Either way works for me.
Why this hostility towards the Constitutional clause of free speech? Are you a domestic enemy of the Constitution?
If you select a user name like that, shouldn't you expect a mild and amusing ribbing every so often? A bit butt hurt?
Who cares about replacing HR's and RBI's? Where in baseball history have HRs and RBIs been correlated to World Series? Sure if you take 50 HR's out of a line up you will have 50 less HR's but does it mean you have any less wins?
no it doesn't.
The SF Giants have won 3 titles in the 2010's (2010, 2012, 2014) did they even have a 30 HR hitter? Did they have a .900 OPS guy?
I can tell you. No to the 1st question. And 2 to the second question. Out of 3 world series, they had two players with an OPS over .900. Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera in 2012.
So why are fans so intent on you have to have that big HR bat to win a title?
The late 90'/00's Yankees steroid era teams who won 4 WS in 5 years didn't have a player with more than 30 HRs.
Even the Texas Rangers last year had one qualified starter with an OPS over .900
Shit the Mets lost the WS to a Royals team in 2015 where Mike Moustakas and Kendrys Morales led the team with 22 HRs each, so why are the Mets fans so tied up in knots about what they could possibly do if they lose the HRs from Pete Alonso. Where has HR's and RBI ever been correlated to winning a title? Murderers row?
IMO they haven't correlated to wins at a rate that indicates paying Pete Alonso long term makes sense, plus a decline, and it could be fast, is likely.
This is not can Cohen win a bidding war question (of course he can) this is a should he question, and I do not believe he should.
My plan is to work a trade this deadline, IF big IF it's a fair trade. If not ride out the season, offer the QO, hope he signs elsewhere. But I'd really try and work out a trade.
If it’s a sellers market, you sell, including Pete.
If it’s a buyers market, you buy.
Maybe there isn't one dumb owner anymore?
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....So, even harder to replace....thanks, Eric!...
Who cares about replacing HR's and RBI's? Where in baseball history have HRs and RBIs been correlated to World Series? Sure if you take 50 HR's out of a line up you will have 50 less HR's but does it mean you have any less wins?
no it doesn't.
The SF Giants have won 3 titles in the 2010's (2010, 2012, 2014) did they even have a 30 HR hitter? Did they have a .900 OPS guy?
I can tell you. No to the 1st question. And 2 to the second question. Out of 3 world series, they had two players with an OPS over .900. Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera in 2012.
So why are fans so intent on you have to have that big HR bat to win a title?
The late 90'/00's Yankees steroid era teams who won 4 WS in 5 years didn't have a player with more than 30 HRs.
Even the Texas Rangers last year had one qualified starter with an OPS over .900
Shit the Mets lost the WS to a Royals team in 2015 where Mike Moustakas and Kendrys Morales led the team with 22 HRs each, so why are the Mets fans so tied up in knots about what they could possibly do if they lose the HRs from Pete Alonso. Where has HR's and RBI ever been correlated to winning a title? Murderers row?
IMO they haven't correlated to wins at a rate that indicates paying Pete Alonso long term makes sense, plus a decline, and it could be fast, is likely.
This is not can Cohen win a bidding war question (of course he can) this is a should he question, and I do not believe he should.
My plan is to work a trade this deadline, IF big IF it's a fair trade. If not ride out the season, offer the QO, hope he signs elsewhere. But I'd really try and work out a trade.
Interesting information pjcas.....
These days, it is hard to know which stats correlate to wins....as Gary Cohen said the other night, no one cares about batting averages any more...
So, it seems OPS has become the new "important" stat...and also WAR. Alonso's OPS for his career is .860 (really good), his WAR for his career is 3.6 (just good, for a first baseman).
But you are right, team wins are the most important stat, though the number of wins is affected by the 26 guys on the team.
I have to admit, I have a soft spot for Pete...homegrown, bleeds orange and blues, etc...I'd love to see him finish his career with the Mets....but it's not my money.
Also, if it came down to paying Pete or finding a way to get Juan Soto in a Met's uniform, that's a no-brainer...much as I love Alonso.
According to Joel Sherman of The New York Post, the Mets offered first baseman Pete Alonso a deal hovering around seven-years for $158 million before the trade deadline last season. Alonso turned down the contract offer, and decided to follow in New York Yankees superstar outfielder Aaron Judge's footsteps by betting on himself in a walk-year, as Judge did in 2022 before landing a nine-year, $360 million deal last year to remain in the Bronx for the foreseeable future.....
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Olerud might be the closest the Mets have had to Keith since Keith.
Extending him is a tougher argument. I'm not arguing that he hasn't been an elite power bat since he's been called up. But, you really dont want to pay for past performance. Extending him is about what kind of player you think Alonso will be into his 30s. Something like 3yrs/$80M with a really bigtime incentives that could push it into the $90-95M range seems okay to me. If someone offers him 5yrs/$140M, it's a tougher sell.
Sayonara to an extension (if I am making that decision).
And the argument to trade or not basically comes down to
a. do you keep him to contend in 2024
if yes, you have your trade deadline answer.
if no or you think you can contend without him
b. do you think the QO comp > the trade return
if yes, you still keep him and offer the QO and hope he signs elsewhere, if no, you trade him.
My opinions are what they should do (IMO) not what I think they will do.
They're not going to trade him for a couple of A players.
If the return is minimal they don't need the money with the owner they have. It's not the Wilpons anymore
Olerud might be the closest the Mets have had to Keith since Keith.
When the Mets lost Olerud, I was FURIOUS! He was fantastic. The best first basemen we've had since Keith are Olerud and Delgado the Yankee-killer. Pete's 3rd.
He's not worth more than Freddie Freeman OR Matt Olson, who eagerly signed for around the $160M range and similar years.
If Pete had been just a little more receptive to the Mets extension offer....they might have agreed to defer the first year's total Ohtani-style.
I'm sure they could have boosted the number to $160M and everyone starts the season HAPPY !!
Maggot Brain is a record by Funkadelic which happens to contain one of the greatest guitar solos of all time.
BBI is not funky enough to appreciate the awesomeness of George Clinton and company
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these days for a 1B is a big power bat, but I would take a Keith Hernandez over a Pete Alonso 100 times out of 100.
Olerud might be the closest the Mets have had to Keith since Keith.
When the Mets lost Olerud, I was FURIOUS! He was fantastic. The best first basemen we've had since Keith are Olerud and Delgado the Yankee-killer. Pete's 3rd.
Great call on Delgado. I don't think I was ever more disappointed in a Mets team (including '88 and '15) than I was in 2006. Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Delgado is the best top 4 I can remember in Mets history - not just offensive, but all around. Delgado was on the back 9 defensively but the rest in their primes and great all around players.
He's 95th in fWAR (70th over the past 2 seasons)
He's 39th in wRC+ over the past 2 seasons (50th this season)
His ISO as a rookie was .323 (for comparisons sake, that would be #2 in baseball this season). His ISO this year is a career worst .217 (22nd in baseball).
He also would not be QO eligible, so he'd be a 1/2 rental in a time where teams treat prospects like gold
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In comment 16550322 BigBlue7 said:
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Hey no reason to be a dick. I'm cool with a difference of opinion. Or you could just shut the fuck up. Either way works for me.
Why this hostility towards the Constitutional clause of free speech? Are you a domestic enemy of the Constitution?
If you select a user name like that, shouldn't you expect a mild and amusing ribbing every so often? A bit butt hurt?
Where did he say a thing about free speech? I hate to break it to you, but 1A doesn’t shield anyone from criticism for saying something stupid. If nothing else, it guarantees it.
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....The New York Mets made an attempt to extend their superstar slugger last season, but were unsuccessful.
According to Joel Sherman of The New York Post, the Mets offered first baseman Pete Alonso a deal hovering around seven-years for $158 million before the trade deadline last season. Alonso turned down the contract offer, and decided to follow in New York Yankees superstar outfielder Aaron Judge's footsteps by betting on himself in a walk-year, as Judge did in 2022 before landing a nine-year, $360 million deal last year to remain in the Bronx for the foreseeable future.....
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Pete will regret turning that down. I don’t think he does any better this fall, likely worse.