The Mets should trade Pete Alonso before the trade deadline for multiple reasons:
1. Alonso turns 30 next year and sluggers rarely age well enough to justify a long-term pricy contract at that age.
2. Alonso does one thing, and only, one thing well. He does not hit for average, his on-base percentage is mediocre, he's been a poor clutch hitter, he's a below average fielder, and can't run a lick.
3. He's not the team leader. Lindor and Nimmo run the show, rightfully so. The whole humping the dugout fence and LFGM bullshit does not scream maturity, nor cohesiveness.
4. The money he's looking for is prohibitive for someone with a declining WAR and Boras will look to scoop up every last dollar he can for Alonso.
5. Though I would strongly argue against it, they can re-sign Alonso next year if the market cools. But the Mets cannot make the same mistake the G-Men did by not trading Barkley when they had little intention of re-signing him during the off-season.
The Mets should try to again strengthen the farm system through this trade. Move Vientos to first base, bring Baty back up to play third and let the rest of the season play out. Stearns wanted to use this season as an evaluation tool for the future. If Alonso isn't part of that future, the time to strike is now.
Maybe I am wrong.
Extending him is a tougher argument. I'm not arguing that he hasn't been an elite power bat since he's been called up. But, you really dont want to pay for past performance. Extending him is about what kind of player you think Alonso will be into his 30s. Something like 3yrs/$80M with a really bigtime incentives that could push it into the $90-95M range seems okay to me. If someone offers him 5yrs/$140M, it's a tougher sell.
That’s where I’m at. I don’t see any scenario where moving him at the deadline is a net positive for the Mets. Weakening the lineup for a couple of meh minor leaguers doesn’t seem like a wise move for a team in the playoff picture. Extending him is an entirely different story.
Personally, I’d like to keep him, but the price has to make sense.
this past offseason it hasnt been reported that stearns put any offer on the table and there wasnt a single UFA hitter who even got $100m. Bellinger was younger, off a better year than alonso, and can play CF and he only got 3x80m.
the RSN's imploded 1/3 of teams budgets, and that is still unresolved.
the world scott boras was living in 1 year ago could not look more different than the world looks today, and im pretty sure they would probably jump at almost any offer around $100m right now. the mets have the right to take this to FA, attach a QO to alonso, get compensated if he walks or possibly get him signed to what ends up being a very team friendly deal below $100m if the market doesnt turn around.
as far as individual player stats correlating with winning WS, id be curious to read any such correlations found. im pretty sure good teams are made up good players, and all different types of teams and players have won WS. if there were a specific type of player that won WS and were easy to find wouldnt the LAD or NYY have acquired more of that type of player and won more than 1 WS combined in the last decade+?
so, not sure what exactly is misinformation.
Feinsand reporting the Blue Jays are telling teams they aren't moving anybody who is signed through 2025.
Just another on the list of stud players career wasted in NY..
so, not sure what exactly is misinformation.
i said misinformed context. if people are saying "if he turned down 158m+ no way" i dont think that's correct. it ignores that the market collapsed this offseason and landed directly on boras' head. also that the mets have a new POBO who has proven to be far more disciplined with contracts than Eppler and not offered any extension to pete.
anything can change but i would be very comfortable betting right now he ends up getting less than 158m wherever he signs.
who else is available, what teams need your position, how old are you when you hit FA, etc.
That Alonso turned down that offer (if true and I believe it probably is) is a fact and I wouldn't eliminate him from consideration in the future because of it. But having a new GM allows the Mets to reset expectations. I think that offer was ridiculous and the Mets dodged a bullet that he rejected it. Hopefully Stearns is smarter and if he can't be traded and the Mets make an offer, it's more like 3 years $65M than 7 years $158M.
who else is available, what teams need your position, how old are you when you hit FA, etc.
That Alonso turned down that offer (if true and I believe it probably is) is a fact and I wouldn't eliminate him from consideration in the future because of it. But having a new GM allows the Mets to reset expectations. I think that offer was ridiculous and the Mets dodged a bullet that he rejected it. Hopefully Stearns is smarter and if he can't be traded and the Mets make an offer, it's more like 3 years $65M than 7 years $158M.
i think stearns (and cohen) have completely reset expectations by not offering him any extension and loudly proclaimed since ST that they are willing to take him to the FA market and just match whatever his market rate is - as they did with nimmo/diaz.
those comments were perfectly on target to reset the reality for pete and boras that they arent negotiating with the mets, they are negotiating with the market that just cratered to the point where JDM had to take a pay cut off last year even though he was an all star.
since then lots has happened to weaken boras' position farther - there is no sign of progress with the rsns, montgomery fired him, snell has had a bad season, and pete also isnt having his best year either.
that 158m extension btw also likely included pete's 20m that he is making this year. so even if that same offer were still on the table, which i doubt it is, it would probably be 6x138m.
if i were stearns and id assessed to this point that pete is a player i wanted to keep, my contract offer to him at the ASB would be something similar to the 3 years / 80m bellinger got in the offseason, plus an option year or 2 that would vest only with performance to get him back closer to what he turned down. give him a chance to earn back what he gave up in a bad decision he has probably regretted for the last 6 months.
and if he passes that's fine too. if someone offers something unexpected for him id consider it, and if not i have no problem playing the QO game and seeing what happens in FA. the QO return is roughly where/what it cost them to draft Tong and Scott who i think are probably better prospects than you can get for Alonso. They are possibly better prospects than Atlanta gave up for 2+ years of Olson.
The Mets need to contend and don't have time to rebuild.
So, I'd be less interested in a QO return than a major league ready player.
I'm not talking top 100 prospect or Elly de la Cruz or someone's 222 year old phenom, I'm thinking a reliable 8th inning guy.
I don't want to undersell Alonso, but I'd value a solid 8th inning guy and Vientos as every day 1B more than Alonso right now.
I do think Alonso has more value than just an 8th inning giu though, so I'd want the other team to add, but what team is in sell mode and wants Alonso. That's what makes it hard to be buyers and sellers at the same time which is how I view the Mets with an Alonso trade.
Someone like the White Sox may make sense. He's probably their best hitter the second he gets there. I thought the Blue Jays might make sense, but sounds like they aren't looking to move Vladdy.
Maybe BOS - they could also fit that buyers and sellers mode, but they've been on fire lately. but could still use a 1B. Reunite him with Dom, lol.
The Mets need to contend and don't have time to rebuild.
So, I'd be less interested in a QO return than a major league ready player.
I'm not talking top 100 prospect or Elly de la Cruz or someone's 222 year old phenom, I'm thinking a reliable 8th inning guy.
I don't want to undersell Alonso, but I'd value a solid 8th inning guy and Vientos as every day 1B more than Alonso right now.
I do think Alonso has more value than just an 8th inning giu though, so I'd want the other team to add, but what team is in sell mode and wants Alonso. That's what makes it hard to be buyers and sellers at the same time which is how I view the Mets with an Alonso trade.
Someone like the White Sox may make sense. He's probably their best hitter the second he gets there. I thought the Blue Jays might make sense, but sounds like they aren't looking to move Vladdy.
Maybe BOS - they could also fit that buyers and sellers mode, but they've been on fire lately. but could still use a 1B. Reunite him with Dom, lol.
i disagree with the bold. i think the mets have a lot of flexibility to do whatever they want right now. if a big trade came in for alonso tomorrow they have the infrastructure of young talent to put vientos at 1b and baty at 3b. if baty doesnt prove enough in the 70 remaining games then mauricio is next man up next year with jett williams hopefully right behind that. with their $ they can go buy soto in the offseason or they can bring back JDM for another year. they have as much flexibility as any team can ever have trading or losing 1 of their best players. there is a large % of met fans as evidenced by this thread who are not only open to the possibility but cheering it.
the reason to keep alonso is the same as it has ever been for me, what can you get for him that you cant also get keeping him? and i have never been able to answer that question satisfactorily. anyone trading for him as a rental is a contender, and its going to be hard to get a contender to part with any important player from their big league roster. in the BP when you can get Maton types for free, it's hard to endorse giving up any significant assets for better. 2 teams have done that for robertson the last 2 years and he blew up down the stretch for both them.
based on his comments and his general feeling that beat reporters have shared it almost seemed (my interpretation) he was ready to sell the team.
based on his comments and his general feeling that beat reporters have shared it almost seemed (my interpretation) he was ready to sell the team.
with vientos, jdm, and alvarez doing what they are doing, along with what they have in nimmo/lindor, the capacity to remain competitive while trading alonso, which they reportedly entertained last year, is higher than it's every been. especially if there is any belief that there's some kind of decline not far off. the padres/soto and brewers/burnes each just did this with boras players.
baty at 3b and vientos on 1b instantly improves the teams defense for starters, and its not impossible that difference offsets a chunk of the value loss with alonso. in 50 games this year brett baty was worth .6 fwar. in 90 pete is worth 1.0. vientos is 1.5 in 46g. baty's offense doesnt need to get that much better for that change to be effectively neutral if he continues to play good defense at 3b.
for me this is and has always been entirely a baseball decision. can you get back something back that's harder to get than Pete? judging by the olson trade i believe the answer to that was no even when he had more time left under contract so as a rental i think that's probably still a no.
it's why my suggestion is to trade Alonso for players who can help now - IOW be buyers and sellers and I'm not suggesting trade Alonso for Brayan Bello or Elly de la Cruz.
as to a contract, I think the Alonso money is best used elsewhere - partly for the reasons you mentioned. Vientos can take 1B and maybe there is a drop off offensively, maybe not. I'd roll the dice.
So now you remove Alonso and maintain a competitive lineup, and then you improve the bullpen (if you trade Alonso for an 8th inning guy) and you can still re-sign him in the off-season, but I wouldn't.
typically the closer to the big leagues a prospect is, the lesser of a prospect you are getting in terms of potential. in any selling trade the mets do i would want prospects as FAR from the big leagues as possible because that's where you can hit home runs, like the Pham trade last year. they already have more upper minors depth then they can play.
and again anyone trading for pete now is a contender, so they arent likely to give up anything that impacts their MLB roster too negatively. i havent found/seen any trade in the last few years where i thought "wish we could have gotten that for pete" be it players or prospects so i think the chances of a deal like that suddenly materializing is more wishcasting than reality. the olson trade return felt light at the time and has proven to be even lighter.
Probably just smoke, but a lot of "Is Cohen losing Faith in the Mets" type articles. What was his time frame for a WS? 3-5 years?
time is ticking. It is becoming apparent money is not the only tool or maybe even the most important or effective tool to winning a WS.
Someone on CHI like an 8th inning guy, or maybe a starter like Crochet, who knows. Alonso would be their best hitter.
Red Sox too, they lost Casas, Dalbec stinks, they are on fire and could use a 1B, but two-three weeks ago, like the Mets, they were planning to sell. Maybe a Kutter Crawford or an 8th inning guys makes sense. Just throwing names out there as example not necessarily trade proposals.
Anyway, that's the kind of trade I would make for Alonso, not HR-swing prospects that are years away from helping at the major league level. I mean sure, if you trade Alonso to the White Sox for an 8th inning guy, sure, the WS would need to throw in more, so maybe get their 18-year old with good stuff but bad results but he's not the main target. In my plan.
the twins are a team i could see being interested but what are they giving up? swr? houston another team but most of what is interesting there is likely to be low minors.
if we are getting someone else's christian scott id trade him, if we are getting their david peterson/tylor megill im not, and i expect there's a much longer list of teams willing to trade the latter than the former (probably 0).
my first move would be trying to strike while boras is weak for whatever they calculate a team friendly extension to be over the ASB.
Shortening games is what the Mets need to do but can't do. If Diaz regains his form, shortening games with a reliable 8th inning guy plus getting Senga back changes everything. If you can get that from a team - plus their Christian Scott for Alonso, how do you say no?
It move Vientos into a full time 1B role, addresses a major weakness with the bullpen and sheds payroll (probably) for 2025.
Shortening games is what the Mets need to do but can't do. If Diaz regains his form, shortening games with a reliable 8th inning guy plus getting Senga back changes everything. If you can get that from a team - plus their Christian Scott for Alonso, how do you say no?
It move Vientos into a full time 1B role, addresses a major weakness with the bullpen and sheds payroll (probably) for 2025.
maybe if there's someone with a special arm, but even in that instance with cohen i just go back to being able to buy a reliever in the offseason because they are always available.
i can kind of squint and think jansen is a fit if boston attaches a prospect, but on the flip side robertson has been a stud again this year and all he would have cost was $10m. guys like that are always available on reasonable 1-2 year deals. the red sox were trying to dump jansen's contract all offseason, that was the time to grab him.
they just got maton for nothing but cash and last year he was very good.
so i end up back where i begin, if i can get a player be it a pitcher or position player with some kind of special ability im listening. but otherwise im probably just riding to the QO and seeing what happens. if he leaves ill hope we draft the next christian scott or jonah tong.
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Sell the team already? Why do you think that pjacs? Boy that would be brutal but all his comments lead me to believe he's still all in and wants to be here to bring a championship back to Queens.
Probably just smoke, but a lot of "Is Cohen losing Faith in the Mets" type articles. What was his time frame for a WS? 3-5 years?
time is ticking. It is becoming apparent money is not the only tool or maybe even the most important or effective tool to winning a WS.
I think he would take that comment back start seeing everything behind the scenes. I almost look at this as year 1 since he finally made his first hire that he wanted. I don't think he's going anywhere.
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True dat.
Maggot Brain is a record by Funkadelic which happens to contain one of the greatest guitar solos of all time.
BBI is not funky enough to appreciate the awesomeness of George Clinton and company
And sure, other teams would undoubtedly value Pete for a playoff run, but at what cost? If you’re asking for a major league player, who are you getting? A fringe roster player, the kind you can pick up off the trash heap every winter?
If contending teams can use him, so can this contending team. Again, that doesn’t mean I endorse extending him, but I don’t see any upside in trading him now.
I found that Guitar Solo on youtube. You're right -- that is some killer guitar work, right there.
I'm going to mentally add 'Funk All-Stars' to your handle from now on.
Baty has had 500+ MLB ABs and has been awful. I'm not giving up on him, but I'm also not just handing him the 3B job when the Mets are essentially tied for a playoff at the all-star game and playing their best baseball of the year and has their ace throwing 98mph in AAA and ready to come back in 10 or so days.
Mets would be dealing Alonso to a playoff contender as a rental who could provide a power 1B bat. The Mets are a playoff contender that can't afford to lose Alonso IMO.
I have maintained all along I'd only trade him if I could get back players to help the Mets contend (assuming no free fall the next 3 weeks - if that happens I trade him for prospects).
1. If the Mets could trade Alonso for a reliable 8th inning guy and a prospect that would be preferable to offering the QO, having him decline, sign elsewhere and the Mets get draft pick compensation. QO comp player would be years away from helping the MLB roster.
2. I believe without Alonso the Mets would be in the same position in the standings.
So, that is your upside, in fact it would make the team better IMO depending on the return.
CWS may not be interested, but again, he's "only" 30 and would be their best hitter and two season ago CWS were expected to contend. Things can change quickly in MLB.
1) The most money the White Sox have *ever* spent on a FA is 75 million with the highest salary being 18.25
2) Crochet would cost a package of top tier prospects from any team. They were asking the Padres for 4 of their top 5 prospects. Not sure if I missed the context (apologies if I did) but 1/2 of Alonso wouldn't SNIFF Garrett Crochet.
right behind him:
2022 6th round pick = tyler stuart $200k = may be promoted to AAA soon.
2022 7th round pick = jonah tong $225k = pitching well enough in brooklyn he'd probably end this year in AA and could be one of mets top 5-10 prospects as soon as next year.
2021 8th round pick = mike vasil $181k, pitching better in AAA in mix for next depth SP call up.
and remember - they could opt to just use that extra $500k to go towards someone picked earlier - last year they had to pay full slot to sproat (1.475m) and now he's throwing 100mph at AA in the futures game.
the way the mets scouts have been performing these past 3 years as cohen resources have been invested into analytics/technology makes it a lot easier to be comfortable with the QO return.
just like Baty hasn't been an immediate answer no non-veteran prospect they return is going to meaningfully impact the big league club today. or at least you cant count on it. if there isn't a highly attractive upside prospect coming back, im perfectly comfortable letting this FO have an extra $500k to spend however they want in 2025. there is no hole for the 2025 team that cant be plugged by spending some cohen $ as they did this past year on players like manaea, severino, bader, etc.
our formulas are similar - and remember this year's $20m was likely in the original 7 year offer.
so your proposal 4+2 takes him through the same season, just with 2 vesting years instead of firm.
considering no position got 4 guaranteed players last offseason, i think your offer is something he'd be insane to turn down even if it was 4x20m with 2 vestings to 120m and 140m overall counting this year. just 17m shy of last years extension offer he turned down.
if i were stearns that is the exact type of offer id make him at the ASB. unless i just absolutely didnt want him back for whatever reason like defense, decline, etc (which is possible).
Trading yields that better than QO compensation.
Also, based on this season if it doesn't change much, does anyone think Pete accepts the QO?
Lastly, CWS is an example and Crochet was an example or a player rumored to be "on the block" not a trade proposal.
Trading yields that better than QO compensation.
Also, based on this season if it doesn't change much, does anyone think Pete accepts the QO?
Lastly, CWS is an example and Crochet was an example or a player rumored to be "on the block" not a trade proposal.
Thanks for the clarification PJ
if your perspective is that the mets need players to help win now then the trading of alonso becomes that much more difficult because he is an all star who plays every day. you are very unlikely to find a contender willing to give up anything similar in return and non-contenders have no use of alonso for 2 months.
here's something that is as close to realistic as i can get, are you trading him if the main return is kenley jansen? remember jansen is 36, also a FA, and there's no QO option.
if they can get a few more phil maton's for free and keep alonso, isnt that the better route?
Do you think you lose much by swapping in Vientos for Alonso?
Those are my starting points.
If you don't agree on those two, then we differ in our opinions so naturally our approaches would differ, but if you agree on those two I do think Alonso can get back a reliable 8th inning guy (plus).
but again, it's kind of unique that the Mets would be buyers and sellers. They would need another team to kind of do the same to add Alonso but also sell their valuable reliever (plus). The Red Sox are interesting. I was even thinking of a 3-way with NYM, BOS and OAK where the Mets send Alonso to BOS, BOS sends a prospect like Kyle Teel to OAK and OAK sends Mason Miller to the Mets. Tweak the players, but that kind of creativity is what I'm looking for.
IMV that makes the Mets better short-term and free us payroll long-term.
pretending it were on the table, im not sure if i would do it.
if i knew i wasnt bringing back pete because i viewed the $ too large then i probably would. so if i was unwilling to offer an extension then that's probably an easy yes.
if i had a specific parameter of an extension i was willing to do, id offer him that during the ASB and if boras spits on it then obviously im more likely to say yes because there's a greater chance of losing him for the QO.
that's why if i were stearns id have an extension offer for pete now, ahead of the deadline, because it helps gauge how realistic it is to keep him at whatever # i viewed as fair.
my biggest argument against that deal would be that while RP is an enormous and important need, it's the easiest/cheapest thing to find on both the FA and trade market. We could be the team that gives up a distant prospect for Robertson for the 3rd year in a row or just be the team that signs Kenley in the offseason. Maton for free is an example of that. it's also volatile so even if you trade for the biggest stud out there they could underperform like hader did or robertson did both of the last 2 years post-trade.
so to sum up, my first choice is pete on a team friendly deal.
second choice is something creative but unlikely like you came up with.
third choice is playing out the year and the QO.
and ultimately im good with any of those so id feel good about my leverage holding to whatever my asks are.
i think teams likely know the only way it makes sense for mets to move him is if the return is crazy.
ive been thinking back to last year since the scherzer and jv returns were considered so strong. in a more normal prospects trade would i do alonso for acuna or clifford/gilbert? the latter definitely, the former maybe depending on the prospect.
and neither of those deals are apples/apples because both SP had 1.5 years of control. so im pessimistic they could even get an acuna type value for alonso.
Miller would be wonderful to add here, but OAK doesn't have a Cano salary to dump, so Mets would need to offer something like Gilbert, Tong and Peterson and I doubt any of us would pay that price.
Miller isn't a free agent until 2030!
I could say a title favorite like PHI, NYY and LAD paying that type of random though.
Miller would be wonderful to add here, but OAK doesn't have a Cano salary to dump, so Mets would need to offer something like Gilbert, Tong and Peterson and I doubt any of us would pay that price.
Miller isn't a free agent until 2030!
I could say a title favorite like PHI, NYY and LAD paying that type of random though.
Reading my post again, there's a chance OAK tells me to fuck off with my offer also. Who knows.
if there were a way to prop bet it, if the odds were halfway decent id bet stearns offers an extension over the ASB. i just cant remember any moment in the last decade+ where boras/the market have appeared weaker or more uncertain and i think stearns is the type to be proactive with whatever his value is vs. just letting the uncertainty of the market dictate his process. the RSNs are unresolved right now, but that could change by November. if i have time the next couple days im going to try to look at comps and figure out what a deal looks like that alonso would be tempted to sign.
will they? who knows since both sides have new lead negotiators but if Stearns isn't seriously entertaining trades for him, then it stands to reason he might view this as a good time to buy low. I don't think Alonso's negotiating position has ever been worse, and yet he is still clearly a very productive player.
What Could This Year's Pete Alonso Extension Offer Look Like? - ( New Window )