I think it's pretty clear the Giants want more productivity out of there passing attack, have steadily invested in more dangerous pass targets, while investing less in the running game. Not to mention penciling in Jones who was a big part of the running game, returning from a torn ACL.
There are a few eye-opening things to remember about 2022. Out of a debate yesterday, I pulled the numbers around some conventional thinking that running the ball better and play action is the key to opening up big pass plays. That led me down a rabbit hole on some of other numbers.
Just to be crystal clear, I don't think any of this is causal, just some correlative figures, to engage in debate. But running the ball well and utilizing play action certainly didn't open up the pass game.
- The Giants were 4th in the NFL with 170 play action pass attempts, but 19th in yards generated on those attempts
- The Giants were 5th in rushing, and 10th in rushing by running backs, so all-in-all a good running team
- But the Giants were last in the NFL with only 28 pass plays of 20+ yards
- They had the second lowest percentage of passes attempted over 20 yards in the NFL at less than 5%
- They were 26th in passing TDs
- The Giants were 1 of 2 teams to have 3 pass catchers rank in the top 50 in open rate
On average, the Giants ran the ball well, the pass catchers were pretty good at getting open, and the Giants couldn't get the ball down the field through the air.
To me that leaves 2 variables 1) pass protection 2) Quarterback. Which of those was the primary issue I think is the biggest question of the coming season.
The pass catchers are unquestionably more talented now, and the running game presumably less talented.
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Do you think when the Giants were running the ball well in 2022 Daboll and Kafka just chose to not throw the ball deep more?
I think they committed to the run, and found ways to make it work even though the defense knew it was coming. First it was Barkley, then it was faking to Barkley and having Jones keep it (many big runs this way because the D was focusing on Barkley), etc. They knew they wouldn't score a lot this way, but it limited mistakes and kept them in the game.
I don't want to put words in your mouth. Does that mean because the defense was committing to the run, there were plays to be made downfield but they chose not to out of a fear of a mistake?
Probably, but without reviewing every game film I don't have examples. They had less confidence in the passing game (OL pass blocking/QB/WR), and had more confidence in running (Barkley/OL run blocking/Jones running), so they went this way. It wasn't ideal but it gave them a better chance to win a few games. I think the offensive performance in 2023 (turnovers, sacks, lack of points) proved this decision to be correct. Eventually though you need to build a complete offense to win anything. Being a partial team which relies on one thing, won't get you too far in the NFL.
Like I posted in the opening, I don't think these data points are enough to prove an causal relationships. But it's really surprising to me to see:
1) Run game succeeding
2) Team runs a lot of play action
3) Receivers are getting open
And then absolutely sucking throwing the ball down field.
A) the QB does not have the same running ability as in 2022, whoever it is
B) the RB cast is much different
C) the receiving corps is much different
D) the O-line (hopefully) is different and better.
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unquestionably to are hopefully better.
I think better is TBD, but talented I don't think is debatable. A healthy Robinson, Slayton, Nabers, and Hyatt > than the 2022 group.
You're serious that better is debatable?
Slayton was the leading receiver, with Richie James the only other one with 500+ yards (and James 569 yards were 40% of his 5 year career total). James had 14 targets in 9 games for KC last season.
Sigh.......
TBD because it's hasn't happened yet. Did you not read the exchange?
I think it's safe to say better even just based on WDR and Hyatt at the end of last season, but I recognize your point.
The receiving group is a lot of projection. I think that's fair for Nabers, who is insanely talented. For the other two, all mitigating circumstances aside, they need to prove it.
The receiving group is a lot of projection. I think that's fair for Nabers, who is insanely talented. For the other two, all mitigating circumstances aside, they need to prove it.
After the first month of the 2022 season, do you remember who the WR's and TE's were? They are a long way's from that.
The production numbers between Robinson and James are very similar for instance.
The production numbers between Robinson and James are very similar for instance.
You're allowed to use your eyeballs too. In fact it's encouraged. Also to consider circumstances.
There is no comparison between those players. WDR's already shown way way way way more than James.
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Had bad downfield passing stats.
No mystery. The question is whether running ball opens things up downfield. I think the conventional wisdom is it should have.
Not with our level of pass blocking and WR talent. And despite the stats we weren’t that good a running team either. Very inconsistent. Tied for 16th in ypc. Mediocre even if it was the best part of the offense.
Seems like there's probably at least one other factor that you could include, but you predictably ignored it.
Is there a reason for that?
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Had bad downfield passing stats.
Seems like there's probably at least one other factor that you could include, but you predictably ignored it.
Is there a reason for that?
If you start with bad blocking and receiving it certainly limits most other factors given the 3 equally unsuccessful QBs.
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In comment 16551782 BillT said:
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Had bad downfield passing stats.
Seems like there's probably at least one other factor that you could include, but you predictably ignored it.
Is there a reason for that?
If you start with bad blocking and receiving it certainly limits most other factors given the 3 equally unsuccessful QBs.
a) There weren't three QBs in 2022, or did you miss the point of the OP?
b) Since you clearly think the conversation is about 2023, it's worth noting that they weren't equally unsuccessful. One of the three QBs was more unsuccessful than the others (and I acknowledge there are multiple reasons for that; I'm just pointing out that they were not all the same).
c) If you genuinely believe that the passing game has more to do with the supporting cast than it does the QB, why wouldn't you prefer the cheapest of the three QBs so that you can load up the supporting cast that much more?
I think it's really a fourth factor:
d) You cannot bring yourself to put ANY responsibility on Daniel Jones.
Snap counts for WR's since they've been discussed:
Slayton 698
James 524
Hodgins 412
Johnson 312
Sills 270
Golladay 261
Wan'Dale 229
Shepard 165
James was graded very positively in getting open. As did Wan'Dale in 2023. It's scheme and yes, it gets me excited going forward. Wan'Dale in 2022 was starting to get very productive prior to injury. James is fringe but as we saw with the Chiefs, he still isn't very good. Scheme made him look better than he is. Hodgins number seems high but he did play a lot toward the end of the season, and of course Slayton led the way once he found the field. Remember they gave more snaps early to Shepard, Sills and Toney first. Marcus Johnson getting over 300 snaps speaks volumes on the overall unit. It's pretty obvious why they didn't have many big play passes when Slayton was the only legitimate threat (Wan'Dale going down really sucked, too).
Not with our level of pass blocking and WR talent. And despite the stats we weren’t that good a running team either. Very inconsistent. Tied for 16th in ypc. Mediocre even if it was the best part of the offense.
The Giants were 5th in YPC at 4.8 in 2022. I think you're looking at 2023.
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No mystery. The question is whether running ball opens things up downfield. I think the conventional wisdom is it should have.
Not with our level of pass blocking and WR talent. And despite the stats we weren’t that good a running team either. Very inconsistent. Tied for 16th in ypc. Mediocre even if it was the best part of the offense.
The Giants were 5th in YPC at 4.8 in 2022. I think you're looking at 2023.
Right, sorry. Still the same point. Does the 4.8 include Jones. If so that’s a tilted stat. Do you really think our 2022 team was a really good running team. It wasn’t that good at anything offensively except squeaking out improbable wins.
You absolutely go above and beyond to defend DJ and have for years. I'm not putting you in the Jack Stroud class of DJ enthusiasm, but I still think it's telling that you're still talking about folks ignoring the circumstances surrounding DJ's performance while continuing to avoid acknowledging that DJ himself has played any role in that performance.
Only one side of these debates ever suggests that the struggles of one player/position absolve all others, and it's not those who criticize DJ.
Every DJ critic that I see/hear/read accepts and acknowledges the factors and challenges that Giants' QBs have been forced to deal with. Where the conversation tends to shift is when we talk about how those challenges don't mean that the QB(s) would be good but for those factors.
And if you think you're not guilty of that, you should ask yourself when the last time you mentioned a single flaw of DJ's was. I don't want to further disrupt Christian's thread because I think it's a worthwhile discussion that doesn't need to be entirely about DJ, but I do think you're in serious denial about the way you come across when discussing the offense in general, and the QB position in particular.
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I don't discount the receiving group is more talented, they simply just have not proven much.
The production numbers between Robinson and James are very similar for instance.
You're allowed to use your eyeballs too. In fact it's encouraged. Also to consider circumstances.
There is no comparison between those players. WDR's already shown way way way way more than James.
Yup. Robinson's YAC ability is a major step up compared to James and that's why he was let go. His YAC/reception was more than two yards ahead of James in 2022 and nearly two again in 2023. And that's with snaps he played early on where he wasn't fully healthy.
The best thing to happen to Jones should be the departure of Barkley and having the opportunity to be the main cog in this offense, like he's paid a ton of money to do.
Moving to an offense that will focus more on passing, and whether it is successful, boils down to the performance of Jones. And the rest of the team being more dependent on Jones, not the other way around.
Ask not what the offense can do for Daniel Jones, but what Daniel Jones can do for the offense.
In season six...
Giants rushed for 200y/g the first seven games. Through 9 they were at 180y/g. SB had rushing games of 164, 146, 110 and 152. The last 8 games he never broke 100 yards with a high of 87. Run game fell way off.
If they had better WR's or a elite TE in 2022 I think more big plays downfield happen in the first half of 2022.
Teams that consistently run the ball well like SF and Detroit also have excellent PA and big pass plays downfield.
Giants offense is not going to be built like those teams.
Giants rushed for 200y/g the first seven games. Through 9 they were at 180y/g. SB had rushing games of 164, 146, 110 and 152. The last 8 games he never broke 100 yards with a high of 87. Run game fell way off.
If they had better WR's or a elite TE in 2022 I think more big plays downfield happen in the first half of 2022.
Teams that consistently run the ball well like SF and Detroit also have excellent PA and big pass plays downfield.
Giants offense is not going to be built like those teams.
Yup. We’ve pretty much stunk on offense for a long time. I’d say the worst overall offensive talent in the league overall from well before DJ. Talking about how our run game in ‘22 should have given us better passing doesn’t mean much when all of it was bad.
Of course I care, as do you. Neither of us would have spent so many years here if the other posters were meaningless or irrelevant.
As far as I know the yards accrued by the other backs, and the yards the non-backs accrued still count the same. There's really no compelling reason to scrub those from the data.
If a team is running the ball well, and I'd argue maybe even more so with the quarterback, you might think that would cause the defense to bite and provide some advantageous opportunities.
The Giants played 16 competitive games -- we can throw out the week 18 game because it wasn't a meaningful game (It doesn't really change the averages BTW).
In the first half of the year (1-8) the Giants averaged an outstanding 33/162/4.9 rushing line. In the second half they averaged a very good 30/137/4.6 line.
I can play along in this alternate universe where that's not good rushing (it is, but let's play) -- is this such a bad running game that it shouldn't be a factor in how defenses defended the pass game?
I firmly believe that whether the Giant will be 4 and 13 or 13 and 4 is anybody's guess. I see no benefit in lamenting a shitty season two monthes before I have to.
I firmly believe that whether the Giant will be 4 and 13 or 13 and 4 is anybody's guess. I see no benefit in lamenting a shitty season two monthes before I have to.
I *think* one logical conclusion to make from the figures provided, is the Giants didn't feel a Jones-led offense benefited from a dose of running the football. And that upping the fire power at the skill positions and improving the guard play will.
I'm not sure how the debate in this thread leads you to lament the upcoming season.
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Nice to know you care.
Of course I care, as do you. Neither of us would have spent so many years here if the other posters were meaningless or irrelevant.
I’m not one to point fingers at DJ nor have I ever touted him as a good QB. There is no one on this board that doesn’t say they ruined Eli’s last five years by the dearth of talent he had. And he’s a HOF QB. DJ has been through 3 coaches, too many OCs to count and has had significantly worse talent around him than Eli did. I have no idea what DJ will be if anything. I don’t believe most here do either no matter how many DJ stats they post or how many DJ memes they regurgitate.
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In comment 16552086 BillT said:
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Nice to know you care.
Of course I care, as do you. Neither of us would have spent so many years here if the other posters were meaningless or irrelevant.
I’m not one to point fingers at DJ nor have I ever touted him as a good QB. There is no one on this board that doesn’t say they ruined Eli’s last five years by the dearth of talent he had. And he’s a HOF QB. DJ has been through 3 coaches, too many OCs to count and has had significantly worse talent around him than Eli did. I have no idea what DJ will be if anything. I don’t believe most here do either no matter how many DJ stats they post or how many DJ memes they regurgitate.
That's a really good post BillT.
We had also seen demonstrable proof with talent across a spectrum from OK to very good, Manning was a very good quarterback.
If we can "eyeball" some projection for players like Wan'Dale Robinson's talent (absent actual results), I'm perfectly comfortable trusting both my eyeballs and the results with Jones to establish a working thesis.
So back to the point of the thread.
1) The Giants run game was very good in 2022. It was outstanding the first half of the year, and just very good the last half
2) With the benefit of that unequivocal plus element to the offense, they didn't even try to throw the ball down the field
If someone's guess is it's because the receivers weren't good, that's a fair place to start.
But let's go off the deep end and say the running also wasn't good.
Agree BillT about Eli, though the big year misses with him were 2013-17 imv. Terrible FO that ruined the back end of his career.
I'm neutral on Jones but Eli had a much better situation in his early years.
They averaged 137 yards per game, at 4.7 yards per rush over games 9-16. Prorated that would still make the Giants a top 10 rush team.
If you look at the data, the Giants were actually a more even rushing team in games 9-16 than games 1-8. In the first half of the year they had 3 games (2 victories) where they averaged fewer than 4 YPR, vs. 1 game in the second half of the year.
If we're going to cherry pick out best game the 2nd half of the season, we should cherry pick out the best game in the beginning too. That's a strange thing to do, because all rush yards count the same, and arguably a game to clinch a playoff spot is the most important game of the season. If you do that, the averages are still pretty similar.
The Giants were unequivocally a good rushing team in total, and in both halves of the year. And they were certainly a good enough running team to compliment a better than worst deep throwing pass game.
The clues aren't in the running game, the clues are in the pass pro, the quarterback, and pass catchers.
Then you have the 2nd WFT game. Giants couldn't run the ball for most of the game with the RB's. They couldn't pass block early either. So they moved to the early down quick passing game (had success). Better teams caught on to down the road. SB had about 60 yards on the Giants last drive....details.
In games 9-16 the Giants averaged 30 carries per game for 137 yards and 4.7 yards per. Prorated against a full season, those number would have top 10 in the league across all categories.
The yards accrued by running backs don't count any more or less than those accrued by other positions, so let's put the myth to bed.
Simple question and I dare you to have the intellectually honesty and integrity to answer yes or no, is a team that averages 30/137/4.7 a good running team?
BTW, BUFF was 5th in pass attempts that year, 13th in rushing attempts.
BTW, BUFF was 5th in pass attempts that year, 13th in rushing attempts.
Just to be clear, I am not predicting the Giants offense will be similar to the 2022 Giants.
What I am looking into is any correlative relationships that might explain why the Giants completed so few chances down the field.
The conventional wisdom is if you run the ball well consistently, that should open up the pass game. Take this for what it's worth, but the Giants completed double the amount of 20+ plays the 2nd half of the year when they allegedly (falsely) didn't have a good run game.
RB production:
Det 18c/39y/2.1
Dallas 19c/76y/4.0
WFT 18c/63y/3.5
Philly 17c/57y/3.5
WFT 20c/93. Last drive SB 6/48y. 55 yards total. Prior to that: RB's 14c/41y/2.9
Minny 17c/92/5.4
Indy: 27c/125y/4.6
Average: 19c/77y/4.0 Indy also packed it in but I counted it.
Not very impressive (carries/yds/ypc) especially factoring in a lesser pass game . I also highly value RB production. DJ had the highest number of third down conversions with runs...which was needed but not optimal.
Those numbers you are harping on are very close to SF and Detroit with one exception...98 percent is with the RB's which totally impacts the pass game. Sign me up for that type of running game.
So in this thread we've established:
1) In the first half of the season where the Giants according to you had a good running game, the Giants completed fewer long passes.
2) All those years you went on and on about 4.2 yards per rush and 30 rushes, what you really meant was 4.2 YPR and 30 carries by running backs?
3) For some magical undefined reason, yards accrued by running backs count more.
About the same production of Det/SF who also did it with the RB's.
Not a fan of very high volume QB rushing offenses.
I have had to deal with years of seeing your low level data analysis like on this thread and of course the "fairy tale stories."
I think what you're struggling to articulate is that you prefer a team that runs the ball primarily with their running backs and not the quarterback.
Probably best you go back to work, and I continue drinking my lemonade on the deck.
But that as it relates to the actual point of the thread, which is the relationship between the run game and longer passes in 2022, nothing you've posted applies.
I prefer you go back to work so you can afford that Ferrari one day that you did say you can't afford....
Keep those stories coming. Great entertainment.
I am glad we've established 4.5 yards per rush and 30 rushes is the benchmark. You know what's better than that? 4.7 yards per rush and 30 rushes.
I knew you could come around on this basic math.
christian : 2/27/2024 10:49 am : link
I view college for my son like any other commercial purchase. He's a great kid, works hard, and I want the best for him. But when the time comes to get his first car, he's getting the Volvo, not a new Ferrari. We can't afford a Ferrari. Mind you, my son is 2.
With some good investments, cashing out some equity in my former companies, and smart planning we have a comfortable life and I was able to stop working right before I turned 41 last year. As I've offered to you many times, I have a small advisory, if you're looking for work in the applied data software fields, let me know.
Spending 500K on a Ferrari isn't a good investment and doesn't fit my plan. Like I said, it's a very nice Volvo, I quite like it.
Now back to the patio and commanding 3rd grade math!
Vintage Christian....the great inflator.
Whatever makes you happy. Sad to see but I do recognize you are dealing with a hard to treat condition.
Snap counts for WR's since they've been discussed:
Slayton 698
James 524
Hodgins 412
Johnson 312
Sills 270
Golladay 261
Wan'Dale 229
Shepard 165
James was graded very positively in getting open. As did Wan'Dale in 2023. It's scheme and yes, it gets me excited going forward. Wan'Dale in 2022 was starting to get very productive prior to injury. James is fringe but as we saw with the Chiefs, he still isn't very good. Scheme made him look better than he is. Hodgins number seems high but he did play a lot toward the end of the season, and of course Slayton led the way once he found the field. Remember they gave more snaps early to Shepard, Sills and Toney first. Marcus Johnson getting over 300 snaps speaks volumes on the overall unit. It's pretty obvious why they didn't have many big play passes when Slayton was the only legitimate threat (Wan'Dale going down really sucked, too).
Bingo!!
Time to take the training wheels off & let Jones fling it, if he can. If he can't, then let's please move the fuck on.
So here's what I recommend:
1) I make a fool of your nonsensical, circular observations on, well everything
2) You then post something about the passing references I've made about my professional past, but get it all confused
This way I feel all fuzzy about your love for me.
Also, just for shits and giggles, I appreciate you admitting I was completely right. That was big of you.