Expectations + Measurement of Success Running in 2024

most of 2023, it's hard to gauge 2023.

Based on the number and quality of veteran free agent offensive line signings this off season, if, Heaven forbid, the Giants had a repeat of the 2023 injuries in 2024, I think the Giants could handle that situation much better.

It seems like the Giants are poised to have an offense in 2024 that is geared to throw the ball more and deeper downfield. So I think the running opportunities and yardage would be expected to go down.

I guess I'd look for statistics such as:

1) Better yards / carry than 2023
2) Fewer initial contacts behind the LOS than in 2023
3) Fewer zero yardage / negative yardage plays in 2024
4) More chunk / 20+ yard running plays in 2024

As some of the "measurements of success running in 2024".

Yeah, if you subtract kneel downs, the Giants had 111 runs for zero or fewer yards. That's 24% of their rush attempts. I am not sure how that ranks against other teams, but that seems pretty bad. That's a really good place to start.

The Giants also only had 12 runs of 20+ yards, that also doesn't seem very good.

the Giants need equal rushes vs. passes but moreso balance thru the quarters and balance thru attempts on first, second and third downs.

Not so concerned with called plays running left vs right vs up middle as to me that is just subject to audibles at line with a credible QB. And not for nothing, but this is a huge difference from Eli to DJ. Eli was well advanced at this. DJ not so much.

In my view, effective rushing is making the defense stay honest. Don’t let them, or at least limit them from, attacking or overloading themselves effectively versus your game plan. Keep them guessing or allowing for some pause or on their heals so the Offense can attack with less bodies in space.

Getting to 30 rushes and 4.5 yards per rush is the outcome of a win, not a pre-determined winning game plan.

and there are no medical staff limitations on his ability to execute designed runs, it will be interesting how Daboll (assuming he's the play caller) choses to call the initial games.

When Jones was most effective in 2022, it was as a surprise / counter to Barkley's very effective running. With Barkley gone, how successful "running back by committee" is and how willing Daboll is to expose Jones to contact downfield will be interesting to watch.

Of course with all the downfield running and contact Jones had and was exposed to in 2022, it was a non-contact / in the pocket play that forced him off the field (I seem to recall the damage might have been done on the prior play; don't recall what type of play that was).

I'll scrounge it up, but I've seen a study where the majority of QB injuries happen in the pocket. Not surprised he got hurt in the pocket. In surprised his head didn't pop off on the hot against Miami.

Singletary had 35 rushes of zero or fewer yards, whereas Barkley had 67 last year. I think that's definitely something to keep an eye on.

a functional offense, a stout defense. Be the team no one wants to play in December, despite the record and individual stats. Show an identity, be tough to beat.

Maybe over 10 would be a bettr metric me.

We need them to be consistently successful. Short yardage success rate. First downs and yards per carry for sure. Keep the offense on schedule. I am perfectly fine with big plays coming from the passing game, but the running game needs to be complimentary.

I would like to be more physical as well. Need to wear down the defense by being hard to bring down, keeping those legs turning for extra yardage and falling forward. So maybe break tackle rate and yards after contact would be keys to me.

I would love NOT to have that "we have no chance" feeling on 3rd and 2. I would love to NOT have that "we have no shot" and 2nd and goal from the 4. So a little consistency on short yardage obvious running plays.

Just win games. Throw the ball. Run the ball. Show you can do both. Score early. Score often. Make some big plays. They have the position players to do it at RB, WR and TE.

What they need is the offensive line personnel to get them there.

You can analyze this all you want - it's this simple. Play with a competent oline and the number will be there to support it.

I don’t care if it is via the run or the pass, but relying on the defense to get turnovers, hold teams down in points, etc. is not a recipe for sustained success unless you can make a team like the late Monte Kiffin did in Tampa. The teams that have success in today’s NFL do it with the offense.

Duck!!!

In comment 16552776 SteelGiant said:

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Maybe over 10 would be a bettr metric me. We need them to be consistently successful. Short yardage success rate. First downs and yards per carry for sure. Keep the offense on schedule. I am perfectly fine with big plays coming from the passing game, but the running game needs to be complimentary. I would like to be more physical as well. Need to wear down the defense by being hard to bring down, keeping those legs turning for extra yardage and falling forward. So maybe break tackle rate and yards after contact would be keys to me.

I ve alway said I want a chain mover. A guy that runs 50on one carry and 20 the rest of the game doesn't move chains. I want to keep my O on the field and my D off it. When Buffalo had Singletary he wasn't the lead back but he constantly gained and squeezed yards. Seemed to always fall forward. I use to say why can't we get a back like that? Can he do it here? I m hoping.

than the RB. Well at least as much.
But yes, I would like to 1st downs made and TDs on runs of 2 to 4 yards.

In comment 16552783 gidiefor said:

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Just win games. Throw the ball. Run the ball. Show you can do both. Score early. Score often. Make some big plays. They have the position players to do it at RB, WR and TE. What they need is the offensive line personnel to get them there. You can analyze this all you want - it's this simple. Play with a competent oline and the number will be there to support it.

Thanks for the brilliant contribution to the discussion!

In comment 16552825 section125 said:

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than the RB. Well at least as much. But yes, I would like to 1st downs made and TDs on runs of 2 to 4 yards.

I think a good metric is TDs inside 10 yard line. The Giants only had 8 of those last year.

The Giants have been in the bottom 10 in the league for total offense in each of the past 5 years with exception to 2022, where they were still bottom 15.

Success this year would be the team's total offense cracking the top 15. If that happens to include a rushing attack that finished top 10 it would be a nice bonus - but no one is going to care whether Devin Singletary made All Pro if this team is still somehow only mustering 15 points a game.

In comment 16552852 eclipz928 said:

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The Giants have been in the bottom 10 in the league for total offense in each of the past 5 years with exception to 2022, where they were still bottom 15. Success this year would be the team's total offense cracking the top 15. If that happens to include a rushing attack that finished top 10 it would be a nice bonus - but no one is going to care whether Devin Singletary made All Pro if this team is still somehow only mustering 15 points a game.

this right here. the most important metrics for singletary are probably going to be staying healthy, not fumbling, and pass blocking since there is no experience behind him. barkley gets kicked around in a multitude of ways but his pass blocking improved a lot over his career and he had long been one of the lowest fumblers at the rb position despite heavy workload.

singletary has 11 fumbles in 888 carries, barkley has 4 in 1201. singletary was credited with 4 sacks allowed last year in 69 attempts, barkley was 2 in 100. singeltary type running backs are a complimentary piece to an offense, he just needs to do his job without making mistakes. id rather he has a lesser statistical season rushing but protects well/doesnt fumble than vice versa.

In comment 16552852 eclipz928 said:

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The Giants have been in the bottom 10 in the league for total offense in each of the past 5 years with exception to 2022, where they were still bottom 15. Success this year would be the team's total offense cracking the top 15. If that happens to include a rushing attack that finished top 10 it would be a nice bonus - but no one is going to care whether Devin Singletary made All Pro if this team is still somehow only mustering 15 points a game.

It matters in that the average yards gained by a top 16 scoring offense over the past 5 seasons is 6100 total yards. And the average rush yards gained by a top 10 rushing offense over that same 5-year period is 2340 yards.

So that puts the statistical burden at about 3750 yards in pass game which, I think is probably a fair floor for Jones. Which would put the pass offense in the historical 14-17 range.

And again those mean averages of all teams, so actuals do vary. But the point is that you have to accrue yards to score points. And if the pass offense is about average, the run game statistically has to produce more.

As far as any individual performance, or really the mix rate, I don't care. But I think the Giants need a productive run game to supplement Jones.

In comment 16552830 christian said:

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In comment 16552783 gidiefor said: Quote: Just win games. Throw the ball. Run the ball. Show you can do both. Score early. Score often. Make some big plays. They have the position players to do it at RB, WR and TE. What they need is the offensive line personnel to get them there. You can analyze this all you want - it's this simple. Play with a competent oline and the number will be there to support it. Thanks for the brilliant contribution to the discussion!

And thanks for a brilliant thread.

In comment 16552830 christian said:

Quote:

In comment 16552783 gidiefor said: Quote: Just win games. Throw the ball. Run the ball. Show you can do both. Score early. Score often. Make some big plays. They have the position players to do it at RB, WR and TE. What they need is the offensive line personnel to get them there. You can analyze this all you want - it's this simple. Play with a competent oline and the number will be there to support it. Thanks for the brilliant contribution to the discussion!

Actually his comments were good. Don't know why you are having an issue with it. If you aren't winning when you are trying to win, you think it matters in the long run if you avaerage more yards per run in a passing league?