NFT: Mets Draft thread: July 14th to July 16th

I'll post that early NY time on Monday, after the Rockies series. We can just shoot the breeze there for four days in lieu of a series. Draft stuff will be on this thread though and minor league stuff will be on the minors thread for July, as usual.

We'll be doing one each month for the rest of the season. It'll be easier to consolidate info this way and for everyone to be able to follow along any news and information centering around the big club's various affiliates.


NFT: Mets Minor Leagues (July) - DanMetroMan - 7/1/2024 10:17 am


*For reference purposes, here are the links for previous months as well:

NFT: Mets Minor League Thread (June) - DanMetroMan - 6/1/2024 10:45 am

NFT: Mets Minor Leagues (May) - DanMetroMan - 5/1/2024 12:15 pm

NFT: Mets Minor League Update (April) - DanMetroMan - 4/2/2024 10:17 am

The names linked to them id least like Culpepper. Yeah, he’d be under slot but he seems like a future utility player. Very limited realistic upside.

In comment 16552895 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

The names linked to them id least like Culpepper. Yeah, he’d be under slot but he seems like a future utility player. Very limited realistic upside.

What do you think about Seaver King from Wake Forest Dan?

In comment 16552905 Optimus-NY said:

Quote:

In comment 16552895 DanMetroMan said: Quote: The names linked to them id least like Culpepper. Yeah, he’d be under slot but he seems like a future utility player. Very limited realistic upside. What do you think about Seaver King from Wake Forest Dan?

If they go college bat he’s one of my favorites. Walk rate is a concern but he also doesn’t swing at many pitches out of the zone. Outstanding athlete. Some think he’s moving to CF, others like him at SS. I’d like that pick quite a bit. Culpepper was the only name I’ve seen connected with them I wouldn’t be enthusiastic about.

Mainly because he has hit well with wood bats. I would also see if someone like Slade Caldwell is willing to take below slot to go at 19 because it looks like he is falling to supplemental area. At that area you are talking about sub $3M. Would he be willing to swing a deal with the Mets for like $3.8M (~22nd pick money) which would save the Mets $400,000 plus the overslot of 4.99% on that pick (which is about another $210,500)?

Perhaps Dan or some of the knowledgeable locals could share how the MLB prospect development process affects drafting strategy, in terms of success rates at different positions, transferable or teachable skills, age etc?

With the NFL draft we talk about BPA vs needs, can a player start right away or need a year or two in a professional weight room, or time to adjust to the pro game. Also rookie contracts are only 4 years before all but the first rounders reach free agency. Baseball has many more years of control, right? So you can develop a prospect for what, 4-5 years before calling up, then control for a bunch more before his mlb service time earns him arbitration then eventually free agency?

I have a vague understanding of the 40 man roster and the Rule 5 draft, but in general, having more time to develop your draftees would seem to make it seem more important to have good organizational support, coaching and fitness training, and drafting prospects with certain tools instead of mlb ready contributors?

Also, I’ve read talk of trading prospects for veteran bullpen help. It initially seemed to me be expensive to deal an inexpensive everyday player with loads of potential for a one year rental of a situational pitcher, but is that because of the huge uncertainty of a prospects success at the pro level? Is the success rate less predictable than for NFL prospects do you think?

And finally, is it naive or overly simplistic to think loading up on pitching prospects saves the organization money down the line? Are they bigger risks?

Thanks in advance!

In comment 16552929 HopePhil and Optimistic said:

Quote:

Perhaps Dan or some of the knowledgeable locals could share how the MLB prospect development process affects drafting strategy, in terms of success rates at different positions, transferable or teachable skills, age etc? With the NFL draft we talk about BPA vs needs, can a player start right away or need a year or two in a professional weight room, or time to adjust to the pro game. Also rookie contracts are only 4 years before all but the first rounders reach free agency. Baseball has many more years of control, right? So you can develop a prospect for what, 4-5 years before calling up, then control for a bunch more before his mlb service time earns him arbitration then eventually free agency? I have a vague understanding of the 40 man roster and the Rule 5 draft, but in general, having more time to develop your draftees would seem to make it seem more important to have good organizational support, coaching and fitness training, and drafting prospects with certain tools instead of mlb ready contributors? Also, I’ve read talk of trading prospects for veteran bullpen help. It initially seemed to me be expensive to deal an inexpensive everyday player with loads of potential for a one year rental of a situational pitcher, but is that because of the huge uncertainty of a prospects success at the pro level? Is the success rate less predictable than for NFL prospects do you think? And finally, is it naive or overly simplistic to think loading up on pitching prospects saves the organization money down the line? Are they bigger risks? Thanks in advance!

MLB Draft is more akin to NHL Draft versus NFL. In the NFL you are getting pro ready players who have competed against competition that generally include NFL talent playing pro schemes. MLB (and NHL) is much more about projection. Outside of the Paul Skenes's of the game, you just are not facing guys in college or definitely High School anywhere close to MLB caliber. In MLB you are lucky if 20-25% of your draft picks ever play a major league game (that includes guys who have a cup of coffee). Compare that to the NFL Draft where good teams can have the overwhelming majority of a draft playing a role on the team.

In comment 16552937 Mike in NY said:

Quote:

In comment 16552929 HopePhil and Optimistic said: Quote: Perhaps Dan or some of the knowledgeable locals could share how the MLB prospect development process affects drafting strategy, in terms of success rates at different positions, transferable or teachable skills, age etc? With the NFL draft we talk about BPA vs needs, can a player start right away or need a year or two in a professional weight room, or time to adjust to the pro game. Also rookie contracts are only 4 years before all but the first rounders reach free agency. Baseball has many more years of control, right? So you can develop a prospect for what, 4-5 years before calling up, then control for a bunch more before his mlb service time earns him arbitration then eventually free agency? I have a vague understanding of the 40 man roster and the Rule 5 draft, but in general, having more time to develop your draftees would seem to make it seem more important to have good organizational support, coaching and fitness training, and drafting prospects with certain tools instead of mlb ready contributors? Also, I’ve read talk of trading prospects for veteran bullpen help. It initially seemed to me be expensive to deal an inexpensive everyday player with loads of potential for a one year rental of a situational pitcher, but is that because of the huge uncertainty of a prospects success at the pro level? Is the success rate less predictable than for NFL prospects do you think? And finally, is it naive or overly simplistic to think loading up on pitching prospects saves the organization money down the line? Are they bigger risks? Thanks in advance! MLB Draft is more akin to NHL Draft versus NFL. In the NFL you are getting pro ready players who have competed against competition that generally include NFL talent playing pro schemes. MLB (and NHL) is much more about projection. Outside of the Paul Skenes's of the game, you just are not facing guys in college or definitely High School anywhere close to MLB caliber. In MLB you are lucky if 20-25% of your draft picks ever play a major league game (that includes guys who have a cup of coffee). Compare that to the NFL Draft where good teams can have the overwhelming majority of a draft playing a role on the team.

Thanks Mike! Wow, 20-25%? That would imply low emotional investment from a fans perspective.

MMO WEEKLY EPISODE 87: MLB DRAFT FEATURING MATT MANCUSO | Posted by Sal Manzo | Jul 13, 2024 | MMO.com


VIDEO's below:

MMO's Matt Mancuso Joins The Show | MMO Weekly 2024 Ep 87

Carlos hearing significant chatter that @mets are targeting Vance Honeycutt at #19

School: North Carolina Commit/Drafted: Giants ’21 (20)
Age At Draft: 21.2
BA Grade: 55/Extreme
Tools: Hit: 40. Power: 55. Run: 65. Field: 70. Arm: 60.

Honeycutt was a relatively under-the-radar player when he got to campus at North Carolina in 2022, but he quickly made a name for himself after hitting 25 home runs and stealing 29 bases as a freshman. Three years later, Honeycutt stands as UNC’s all-time home run leader with 61 deep flies. In 2024, he became the first Division I player to hit more than 60 homers and steal more than 70 bases in a career. Pair that power-speed combination with Honeycutt’s excellent athleticism and defensive prowess in center field and you have one of the most dynamic and high-upside players in the class. The fact that a 6-foot-3, 205-pound center fielder with his physical tools and production in the Atlantic Coast Conference isn’t viewed at the very top of the class speaks to the questions present in his offensive profile. Honeycutt has oscillated between a highly productive hitter with loads of strikeouts and one who can reign in the whiffs but at the cost of his power output. He hit over .300 for the first time in his career in 2024, though that came with a 28% strikeout rate. He has significant contact questions, particularly against secondary stuff. Honeycutt’s at-bats lead scouts to wonder about his pitch recognition at times, but he’s as capable as anyone of hammering a mistake pitch out of the park to left field or right-center. Honeycutt comes with real risk but should have enough potential to dream on to earn a first-round selection.

Scouting Report
Bats: R, Throws: R
Honeycutt is a 70 defender with 70 power, but even with a midseason swing change to raise his hands, he still struck out too often — even whiffing in-zone — to be a first-rounder for me. He takes a solid stride but doesn’t plant that front leg strongly until well after he’s gotten his hands started, so he ends up with a pretty severe uppercut on far too many of his swings. When he does get the front leg down in time and stays more upright through contact, though, it’s easy power even to dead center.

His bigger issue is pitch and ball/strike recognition, as he swung and missed on nearly a third of the pitches he saw, including a 21 percent whiff rate on pitches in the zone. It’s 30-homer potential in a potentially elite defender in center — I’ve had scouts say he’s at least as good as 2023 first-rounder Enrique Bradfield Jr., on defense — so there’s clear appeal for a team looking for high upside. He’s a project for the right player development department.

How does he rank on your list of guys you'd like the Mets to draft?

In comment 16553156 Optimus-NY said:

Quote:

How does he rank on your list of guys you'd like the Mets to draft?

Bat carries *significant* risk but there is also no denying the upside is there for him to be a + CF with 30+ homers, likely carrying a lowish average. He's not the proverbial "remote throw" pick, but I do have reservations in regard to the Mets being the team to "fix him". More than one scout questioned his ability to his/pick up spin and that's not a simple fix. Longenhagen doesn't even have Honeycutt going round 1 because of the swing/pitch recognition issues.

#42 ranked prospect for him

TLDR
Full Report
Honeycutt is a power/speed center field prospect with hit tool risk. He posted a .293/.412/.638 career line with 27% K% as a junior. Honeycutt has the speed for center and looked more comfortable going into the gaps and at the catch point in 2024. There are real question marks on offense. The stiff, deep, low load of his hands when he swings leaves him vulnerable to high heat. A swing change might remedy this but there are also breaking ball recognition issues here; Honeycutt had a 56% contact rate against sliders in 2024. Tons of hit tool risk has me lower on Honeycutt than one might expect given his college career. He has the physical tools to break out if his swing is overhauled.

do you always go BPA vs Organizational needs? Or does it vary by round?

In comment 16553168 Rob in Rockaway said:
[quote] do you always go BPA vs Organizational needs? Or does it vary by round? [/quote}


It's essentially a puzzle. You have X pool room, with slotted money for the first 10 rounds and you do what you can to get the most value for that pool. Teams generally do not draft for organizational need beyond every team needing pitching at all times.

In comment 16553168 Rob in Rockaway said:

Quote:

do you always go BPA vs Organizational needs? Or does it vary by round?

always BPA, though there is a financial budgeting aspect to every pick. each team gets overall draft pool of $ that they can spend however they want.

so if you want to spend a lot of it on 1 or 2 big names for 2-4m you can do that.

or you can spread it out and sign 4-5 guys at 1m.

and a lot of times players/teams can sort of engineer themselves together by their pre-draft negotiations. if a team hints to an agent they like a player so much they will pay more, that players agent can act more difficult with other teams who may choose other players who are more easily signable. HS players or early college enrollees can use the leverage of not signing and going to college to make teams offer bigger signing bonuses or risk losing them.

so teams/players have a lot more influence on who they get in the draft ahead of time than the NFL, NHL, or NBA where the individual picks are pretty simple - take the guy you like most or trade the pick. in MLB it's a little more pre-ordained by both sides.

with IFA signings, the Mets have Alvarez, drafted Parada and yet still gave out their 2 biggest bonuses the last 2 seasons to catchers. Their top IFA signing next year is a SS (they have Lindor, Houck (their first pick last season), Jett Williams, Acuna etc). Obviously, teams target specific traits/types of players they think they can develop but drafting for need isn't really an MLB draft thing.

In comment 16553175 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

with IFA signings, the Mets have Alvarez, drafted Parada and yet still gave out their 2 biggest bonuses the last 2 seasons to catchers. Their top IFA signing next year is a SS (they have Lindor, Houck (their first pick last season), Jett Williams, Acuna etc). Obviously, teams target specific traits/types of players they think they can develop but drafting for need isn't really an MLB draft thing.

this may just be some blowback from parada/houck/ginn/allen, but i think im actually leaning more towards the strategy of one day trying the 4-5 $1m guys - which you can probably only do by taking someone under slot in the 1st round by $1m+.

like obviously they liked sproat a lot to take him high 2 years in a row and ultimately paid him 1.4m i think. tidwell got paid similar the year before. id have to really love 1 player a lot to give them 2-3m, vs getting 1 extra sproat type player.

houck - 2.75m
sproat - 1.475m
mclean - 747k
morris - 666k
ewing - 675k
baro - 700k

if you take $1m from houck by picking someone lesser, or even more let's say they overdrafted ewing or baro and gave them $1m.

they could have had 1.75m to try to add 1 or 2 more sproats they liked who possibly went back to college because they were looking for but didnt get $1m+.

obviously it's probably not easy to identify more sproats or everyone would do it, but i think that would be my strategy unless i really loved whoever the 1st round pick was.

and 6 with 666k+. they had a total budget of $8,440,400 so those 6 = ~$7m and 83% of the budget.

.

to this thread. Gonna be an interesting first day for the Mets. Wish we had the 7th pick though damn it!!

In comment 16553207 Optimus-NY said:

Quote:

to this thread. Gonna be an interesting first day for the Mets. Wish we had the 7th pick though damn it!!

that lottery broadcast where we got faked out into thinking we got a top 5 pick still really annoys me.

In comment 16553270 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 16553207 Optimus-NY said: Quote: to this thread. Gonna be an interesting first day for the Mets. Wish we had the 7th pick though damn it!! that lottery broadcast where we got faked out into thinking we got a top 5 pick still really annoys me.

'

Dude! I remember that $hit. Ugh!

.

In comment 16553332 Woodstock said:

Quote:

.

I prefer him to Honeycutt, even though he doesn't have the power/speed Honeycutt does. Hit tool a lot better. As I've aged, I've really become a hit tool guy. I think it's all the years of being burned by toolset guys like Milledge and Escobar.

Probably a lower ceiling than Honeycutt, but Honeycutt is just a red flag on the hit tool. 2nd round? Sure, but he's one rumored target that I have serious reservations about

WHAT THE MOCK DRAFT ARE SAYING THE METS WILL DO AT NO. 19 - Posted by Jack Ramsey | Jul 14, 2024 - MMO.com

Honeycutt seems to be a popular name to Mets at 19.

Preview is on now with Buck as part of the crew: Catch Day 1 of the MLB Draft -- featuring the first 74 picks -- live from Fort Worth, Texas.

In comment 16553270 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 16553207 Optimus-NY said: Quote: to this thread. Gonna be an interesting first day for the Mets. Wish we had the 7th pick though damn it!! that lottery broadcast where we got faked out into thinking we got a top 5 pick still really annoys me.

Yeah, I am still steamed about how that shit-show turned out.

They won a few meaningless games in September and screwed things up for this Lottery.

I just hope they get a few decent pitching prospects out of this Draft. Pitching is expensive. And good, healthy Pitching is very expensive.

One is for ESPN and the other is for MLB Network.

2024 MLB Draft - ESPN feed - 7 pm EDT start (strfish.xyz)

2024 MLB Draft - MLB Network feed - 7 pm EDT start (mlb.com)

This was also listed above, but I'm listing it below again now for the sake of convenience (there's a lot to wade through up above, lol).

2024 DRAFT TRACKER - Sorted by round - MLB.com

Was hoping he'd be there at 19 for the Mets to decide on.

Yesavage (great name)
Caminiti
Schmidt
Benge
Sloan
White
Brecht
Honeycut

think a lot of these names linked with mets?

I doubt that they expected Yesavage or Caminiti to be there

if mets are in that group then probably one of the college hitters Benge, White, Honeycutt, Walschmidt?

.

Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
2m
With the 19th overall pick in the 2024 draft the Mets take two-way player Carson Benge from Oklahoma State.

Let's see what they do. Who do you guys want?

Carson Benge
OF
OKLAHOMA STATE
DOB:
01-20-2003
Height:
6-1
Weight:
184

Scouting Report
Bats: L, Throws: R
Benge is a tremendous athlete who also pitched in relief for the Cowboys, with his pro future in the batter’s box because he has great bat speed, makes excellent swing decisions, and produces hard contact. His swing is slappy, though, and he meets the ball out front too often, with relatively low launch angles as a result, making him a great target for a team that has had success helping guys who can really hit turn that into more line-drive contact. He did hit 18 homers this spring, but, well, so did half the players in Division I.

He’s a strong defender in right with a plus arm who was 93-95 out of the bullpen with a plus curveball, so there’s always the fallback option of putting him on the mound if his bat doesn’t develop as hoped.

O'Dowd has him with 60 hit, 55 power, 60 field, 55 run

Comp as Nick Markakis

so im in. i like getting getting a 2 way player who can focus on one side going forward. in zone whiff is very low and apparently that cant be taught per kiley.

sounds like a solid pick.

conversations ended with all of them pretty high on benge.

so a lot of room for growth as well. More walks than Ks in his college career

so that comp gets me excited

Bella Geskos
@isabella_geskos

Vance Honeycutt’s best chance right now is with the O’s I’m being told. But it is possible he could fall out of the first round entirely which would be shocking #MLBDraft

8:49 PM · Jul 14, 2024 ·223 Views

Bella Geskos @isabella_geskos - 8:49 PM · Jul 14, 2024 · 223 Views

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I don't know who this is btw. I just saw it on the MMO thread I linked previously in this thread.