NFT: Mets Draft thread: July 14th to July 16th

In comment 16553678 Sammo85 said:

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has feel of a possible play at coming in underslot a bit.

agree it reads that way. wasnt in law's top 100. kiley had him 139.

seems like they are comfortable betting on their ability to develop pitchers who are discounted due to mixed results/injuries vs paying whatever premium for players who were more productive.

2024 MLB Draft - MLB Network feed - 7 pm EDT start (mlb.com)

2024 DRAFT TRACKER - Sorted by round - MLB.com

In comment 16553682 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 16553678 Sammo85 said: Quote: has feel of a possible play at coming in underslot a bit. agree it reads that way. wasnt in law's top 100. kiley had him 139. seems like they are comfortable betting on their ability to develop pitchers who are discounted due to mixed results/injuries vs paying whatever premium for players who were more productive.

Yup. Looks projectable as a reliever too if needed. Lot can change with Ps on their development curves, pitch development etc.

curious to see if the Mets plan on having Benge bulk up a bit, he's very slight (6'1 180) and looks like he can comfortably carry 15-20 pounds pretty easily.

RD 3 - #82 overall - Nate Dohm, Mississippi State, Pitcher (RHP)
RD 4 - #111 overall
RD 5 - #144 overall
RD 6 - #173 overall
RD 7 - #203 overall
RD 8 - #233 overall
RD 9 - #263 overall
RD 10 - #293 overall

Ryan Clifford earned a seven-figure bonus out of Pro5 Academy (Apex, N.C.) in 2022 and has since played his way onto MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list as a member of the Mets' organization. But at the time he was drafted, there were some evaluators who thought another outfielder on the same club was a superior talent. Serrano opted to attend North Carolina State, where he has impressed with his bat-to-ball skills, yet disappointed with his power. He helped the Wolfpack reach the College World Series as a Draft-eligible sophomore this year but hit just .289 with 14 homers in two seasons. Serrano has a smooth, easy left-handed swing and a lanky 6-foot-5 frame that provides leverage. He makes consistent contact with ease despite his long limbs and can crush some balls in batting practice, but he doesn't drive the ball in games and is feeble against southpaws. He projected as a 25-30 home run threat in high school but hasn't grown into the bat speed or strength that scouts expected. Though he's a fringy runner out of the batter's box, Serrano moves well once he gets going. After playing first base as a freshman, he played a credible center field with average-to-solid arm strength this spring. He has good instincts in center, but he's probably destined for an outfield corner as a pro.

Eli Serrano, OF NC State in 4th Rd.

Pipeline had him at 224 overall.

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 45 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40

Ryan Clifford earned a seven-figure bonus out of Pro5 Academy (Apex, N.C.) in 2022 and has since played his way onto MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Prospects list as a member of the Mets' organization. But at the time he was drafted, there were some evaluators who thought another outfielder on the same club was a superior talent. Serrano opted to attend North Carolina State, where he has impressed with his bat-to-ball skills, yet disappointed with his power. He helped the Wolfpack reach the College World Series as a Draft-eligible sophomore this year but hit just .289 with 14 homers in two seasons.

Serrano has a smooth, easy left-handed swing and a lanky 6-foot-5 frame that provides leverage. He makes consistent contact with ease despite his long limbs and can crush some balls in batting practice, but he doesn't drive the ball in games and is feeble against southpaws. He projected as a 25-30 home run threat in high school but hasn't grown into the bat speed or strength that scouts expected.

Though he's a fringy runner out of the batter's box, Serrano moves well once he gets going. After playing first base as a freshman, he played a credible center field with average-to-solid arm strength this spring. He has good instincts in center, but he's probably destined for an outfield corner as a pro.

scout eye and projection hope with the body size and swing. Maybe little hope for an underslot to a degree with Serrano.

@BaseballAmerica ranks Serrano #205.

School: NC State Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.2
Serrano was a notable prep prospect thanks to his big frame, solid raw power and bat speed that made him seem like a solid prospect even at one of the offensive-first defensive positions. Now a draft-eligible sophomore at NC State, Serrano has moved from first base to center field after a solid 2023 freshman season where he homered seven times and added 12 doubles. While Serrano doesn’t look like a center fielder in the long run, showing the ability to move around the outfield and perhaps profile at a corner could help his profile as long as he keeps hitting and showing more power. He still has some physical projection remaining with a lanky 6-foot-5, 201-pound frame.

In comment 16553694 Sammo85 said:

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scout eye and projection hope with the body size and swing. Maybe little hope for an underslot to a degree with Serrano.

As a Draft Eligible Sophomore it is probably a slot pick. I am surprised they have not gone for overslot yet.

In comment 16553696 Mike in NY said:

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In comment 16553694 Sammo85 said: Quote: scout eye and projection hope with the body size and swing. Maybe little hope for an underslot to a degree with Serrano. As a Draft Eligible Sophomore it is probably a slot pick. I am surprised they have not gone for overslot yet.

Saw he was 4th yr Sophomore just now so you’re probably right.

Click below for it...


MMO MLB DRAFT THREAD: DAY 2, 2:00 PM - Posted by Allison Waxman | Jul 15, 2024 - ( New Window )

in day 2.

"Serrano hit straight ball very, very well. Curveball, bat is scared."

In comment 16553702 Optimus-NY said:

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"Serrano hit straight ball very, very well. Curveball, bat is scared."

would imagine we will get a few overslots soon but not massive overslots (500k-750k total bonuses).

it seems like they are basically trying something close to last year's strategy where they mostly paid slot early then grabbed a few overslots:

In comment 16553180 Eric on Li said:

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houck - 2.75m sproat - 1.475m mclean - 747k morris - 666k ewing - 675k baro - 700k if you take $1m from houck by picking someone lesser, or even more let's say they overdrafted ewing or baro and gave them $1m. they could have had 1.75m to try to add 1 or 2 more sproats they liked who possibly went back to college because they were looking for but didnt get $1m+. obviously it's probably not easy to identify more sproats or everyone would do it, but i think that would be my strategy unless i really loved whoever the 1st round pick was.

Very high on Serrano
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In comment 16553703 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 16553702 Optimus-NY said: Quote: "Serrano hit straight ball very, very well. Curveball, bat is scared."

Lanzilli (formerly in the Orioles biometrics department) and an ex player himself


“My favorite pick of the draft so far

Four 50 grade offerings in the 3rd round 😵‍💫

Pretty good get for @Mets”

In comment 16553703 pjcas18 said:

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In comment 16553702 Optimus-NY said: Quote: "Serrano hit straight ball very, very well. Curveball, bat is scared."

it looks like.

Pipeline has him at 155.

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40

The Missouri high school ranks feature three interesting shortstops. The consensus is that Snyder's polish and floor make him the best prospect of the trio, giving him the edge over Tytus Cissell's athleticism and Drew Dickerson's physicality. If he doesn't go early enough in the Draft to sign, Snyder could make an immediate impact as a freshman at Tennessee next spring.

Gatorade's Missouri high school player of the year, Snyder is a steady right-handed hitter who makes good swing decisions and provides consistent contact. He didn't show much power on the showcase circuit last summer but has gained some strength and is hitting the ball harder this spring. His biggest backers believe he has 20-homer upside, though others think his pop is more fringy.

Similar questions surround Snyder's ability to remain at shortstop. While he has flashed plus straight-line speed in the past, he has produced below-average home-to-first times this spring after adding muscle. He has reliable hands, solid arm strength and a good internal clock at shortstop, but diminished quickness could land him at third base.

Ht: 6'2" | Wt: 195 | B-T: R-R
Age: null
School: Liberty North (Mo.) HS Commit/Drafted: Tennessee
Age At Draft: 18.8
BA Grade: 50/Extreme
Tools: Hit: 50. Power: 45. Run: 55. Field: 55. Arm: 55.

Snyder is a 6-foot-2, 197-pound shortstop who is one of the more athletic players in the 2024 class and has shown impressive skills on both sides of the ball. He has fast hands and a quick swing that could lead to an average hit tool. Snyder has also gained strength over the last 18 months or so with flashes of average raw power that could tick up as he continues to fill out. At the moment, his swing is more conducive to line drives and ground balls which pairs nicely with his impressive in-zone contact skills. He can be overly aggressive with his swing decisions however and might need to tighten up his plate discipline as he faces more advanced pitching. Snyder was one of the most impressive defenders at the 2023 Area Code Games where he showed quick reactions off the bat, good angles to the ball, solid-average arm strength and an ability to throw on the run with accuracy. He has all the tools to be a solid or better defender at shortstop, though some scouts think he might get too physical as he ages and will need to slide over to third base. He’s committed to Tennessee.

Going signability to afford Sloan

“The Mets go and get Trey Snyder in the 5th round, another MW product who's got plenty to like at the plate w/ plus results and good EVs. Athletic and handles things well on the dirt. #Vols commit tho. Intriguing upside either way.
”

I am assuming Benge will go to St Lucie when he signs and they'l probably sit the pitchers until next year? No more FCL for the high schoolers.

Mets seem to be prioritizing stuff over meds which given broad pitcher injury risk makes a sort of sense. Anyway have gotten universally good feedback on this pick.

In comment 16553723 GF1080 said:

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I am assuming Benge will go to St Lucie when he signs and they'l probably sit the pitchers until next year? No more FCL for the high schoolers.

Yeah. Wouldn’t expect to see any HS kids until 2025 and the pitchers (if they throw at all) will be a handful at most

Pipeline has him at 170.

Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45 | Overall: 40

Collins had one of the highest offensive ceilings among catchers in the 2020 high school crop, but he wasn't signable away from a Georgia commitment and went unselected. He mostly DHed in his first two college seasons and was an outfielder/catcher in an injury-shortened third, never producing as originally anticipated. He has tightened up his left-handed stroke and played with more confidence during a breakout senior season, slashing 354/.574/.772 with 20 homers while ranking first in NCAA Division I in on-base percentage and sixth in OPS (1.346).

Collins still focuses almost exclusively on launching balls to his pull side, but his shorter stroke has enabled him to make more consistent hard contact and get the most out of his plus raw power. His bat speed allows him to catch up to the fastball and he has feasted on heaters while hitting in front of potential No. 1 overall pick Charlie Condon. He's also no longer helpless against breaking balls and changeups. He works deep counts and excels at getting on base via walks and being hit by pitches.

Though Collins has solid arm strength, he lacks the receiving ability to catch at the next level and barely has played behind the plate in 2024. His below-average speed makes the outfield corners a stretch, but he has worked hard to make the transition to first base this spring. If he continues to improve, he could become an average defender at first.

Tools: Hit: 45. Power: 55. Run: 40. Field: 45. Arm: 55.

Collins ranked as the No. 139 prospect in the 2020 class out of high school thanks to his standout raw power as a catcher, but he made it to campus at Georgia, where his prospect status faded a bit after three mediocre seasons. He went undrafted after his 2023 junior season, but made adjustments in 2024 that led to the best season of his career where he hit .354/.574/.772 with 20 home runs and the best on-base percentage in D-I baseball—making him an elite leadoff hitter in front of potential 1-1 pick Charlie Condon. Collins put the bat head in a more vertical position this spring which helped him loosen up in the box and get his hands in a better hitting position with more consistency. He’d always shown a strong batting eye, but contact issues prevented him from tapping into his power. That was not a problem this spring, as he made contact at a 79% clip compared to a 74% clip in his first three seasons with a career-low 13.1% strikeout rate and career-high 23% walk rate—one of the best marks in the country. Collins is now a straight first-base prospect with catching an unlikely proposition for him, but his lefthanded power, improved contact and on-base skills should make him a target somewhere in the middle of the draft’s second day.

I don’t mind picks like that.

The Collins pick as a senior sign. Still want them to pull the trigger of LMG!

More Left Handed bats in the system. I like it.

Unranked by Pipeline.

Probably an under slot to save money.

In comment 16553740 GF1080 said:

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Unranked by Pipeline. Probably an under slot to save money.

I think you are overestimating under slot. Considering Pipeline ranked 250 people and that includes unsignable HS guys anyone drafted here is almost likely to be unranked. Junior so if underslot you are still talking about maybe $30,000 in savings.

In comment 16553743 Mike in NY said:

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In comment 16553740 GF1080 said: Quote: Unranked by Pipeline. Probably an under slot to save money. I think you are overestimating under slot. Considering Pipeline ranked 250 people and that includes unsignable HS guys anyone drafted here is almost likely to be unranked. Junior so if underslot you are still talking about maybe $30,000 in savings.

Didn’t make BA’s top 500 FWIW

In comment 16553743 Mike in NY said:

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In comment 16553740 GF1080 said: Quote: Unranked by Pipeline. Probably an under slot to save money. I think you are overestimating under slot. Considering Pipeline ranked 250 people and that includes unsignable HS guys anyone drafted here is almost likely to be unranked. Junior so if underslot you are still talking about maybe $30,000 in savings.

Didn’t make BA’s top 500 FWIW

In comment 16553749 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 16553743 Mike in NY said: Quote: In comment 16553740 GF1080 said: Quote: Unranked by Pipeline. Probably an under slot to save money. I think you are overestimating under slot. Considering Pipeline ranked 250 people and that includes unsignable HS guys anyone drafted here is almost likely to be unranked. Junior so if underslot you are still talking about maybe $30,000 in savings. Didn’t make BA’s top 500 FWIW

Was looking at LMG and his teammate Jon Jon Gazdar rarely struck out

Believe they had the best offensive team in all of D1 but don’t quote me

New York Mets and New York Yankees: If you don’t love New York, skip this note. I love the Mets’ two picks, with Carson Benge (No. 19) a real upside play as a hitter who makes very hard contact and needs some small tweaks to get to power; and Jonathan Santucci (No. 46), the Duke left-hander with first-round stuff and some injury concerns after his 2023 spring ended due to a fractured elbow. Santucci was their second-round pick, and taking the chance on a first-round arm like that with your second pick is a great gamble. Meanwhile, the Yankees took a personal favorite of mine in this draft, Alabama right-hander Ben Hess, with their first pick (No. 26), and followed it up with Vanderbilt righty Bryce Cunningham (No. 53). Both seem like the sort of pitchers who thrive in the Yankees’ player development system.

Significant upside with major durability concerns (already had TJ) and off field “character” issues

As expected @mets 2nd round pick Jonathan Santucci has indicated he intends to sign #Mets

My knowledge of most of the people drafted yesterday and definitely today are reading their stat line. From listening to Mayo and Callis it seems like the last few picks yesterday are relievers going forward that can throw hard but have control questions. Since they did not really do a lot of overslot yesterday it will be interesting to see what they do today. Do they try to get 1 or 2 that might be looking for say a $500,000 bonus? With the draft down to 20 rounds I would not waste a pick on someone who is unsignable although I do not have an issue with having that one player who is your back-up in case there is money left (as teams probably have some fudge factor just in case an advisor chooses to demand slightly more money than was discussed prior to the selection).

been told the Mets are not significantly under-slot at the moment. They expect to sign all 10 picks.

still on the board, do it, do it.
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A redraft of Christian Little at some point today would not shock me. Yes, different regime but many of the same scouts remain

In comment 16553946 DanMetroMan said:

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been told the Mets are not significantly under-slot at the moment. They expect to sign all 10 picks.

Considering they only went for one real noticeable overslot guy (the HS SS) with an earlyish Senior sign and a bunch of college relievers I would be disappointed if we are that up against slot. The previous amateur scouting regime brought in a lot more upside.

In comment 16553952 Mike in NY said:

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In comment 16553946 DanMetroMan said: Quote: been told the Mets are not significantly under-slot at the moment. They expect to sign all 10 picks. Considering they only went for one real noticeable overslot guy (the HS SS) with an earlyish Senior sign and a bunch of college relievers I would be disappointed if we are that up against slot. The previous amateur scouting regime brought in a lot more upside.

Serrano is expected to be over-slot as well. Response I got was "they have some room, but don't expect a bunch of big money grabs today"