I was doing a query on stathead.com to see how low the Giants 2023 season had sunk and came away with some hopeful results.
The 2023 Giants had a lot in common with the 2004 Bears. They both had low passing TDs, short passes, were highly sacked, low first downs and low sacks by defense. They were two of eight teams all time that met the following season criteria. The criteria was chosen to pick the worst of the Giants statistical rankings.
Passing TD % <= 3
Yds/Pass Cmp <= 9
Sack % >= 11
1st Down by Rush <= 100
1st Down by Pass <= 150
opp Sacked <= 35
In fact they were the only two teams in the 21st century that met that criteria for a season. The Bears were 5-11 that year which was comparable to the Giants 2023 record of 6-11. The good news is the 2004 Bears went on to make the playoffs the next season (2005) and the Super Bowl in 2006. The 2005 season they won their division but were one and done in their first playoff game (divisional).
They did have two Hall of Fame players on the roster in 2006. Kick/Punt returner rookie Devin Hester and linebacker Brian Urlacher. Their quarterback was not a superstar - Rex Grossman - and the top receiver was Muhsin Muhammad. They had 1000+ yard running back in Thomas Jones. Jones was also not a big name back and shared the rushing duties with Cedric Benson. They had built up the trenches the preceding two years.
LG Ruben Brown – pro bowler free agent, toward end of career
RG Roberto Garza – free agent signing that had a good year in 2006
RT Fred Miller – free agent signing that had a good year in 2006
In the 2005 season the Bears improved in four of the six criteria. They were still poor in passing touchdowns and passing 1st downs.
Passing TD % <= 3
Yds/Pass Cmp <= 9 to 10.1
Sack % >= 11 to 6.9
1st Down by Rush <= 100 to 101
1st Down by Pass <= 150
opp Sacked <= 35 to 41
The 2004 Bears had six players with AV of 8+,
Lance Briggs 10 RLB
Alex Brown 10 RDE
Tommie Harris 9 LDT
Michael Green 8 SS
R.W. McQuarters 8 LCB/RCB
Ian Scott 8 RDT
Eight if you add in Urlacher who had a bad/injury year that season.
Brian Urlacher 9 MLB
Olin Kreutz 8 C
The 2023 Giants had four players
Dexter Lawrence 13
Kayvon Thibodeaux 9
Micah McFadden 8
Bobby Okereke 8
That increases to six if you add in 2022 players with 8+ of
Daniel Jones 15
Andrew Thomas 12
Just thought it was encouraging to see a team that performed as poorly as the 2023 Giants turn it around so quickly. How do the teams match up? Here is alist of the 2006 Bears super Bowl team top perfromers b AV. Also shown are the Giants 2023 top perfromers or players that should be at similar positions with their best AV over that last 2-3 seasons.
2006 Bears achievers AV 2023 Giant team with best recent AV
Brian Urlacher 19 MLB Bobby Okereke 8
Lance Briggs 16 RLB Micah McFadden 8
Olin Kreutz 15 OL Andrew Thomas 12
Devin Hester (rookie) 12 PR 2025 draft pick
Alex Brown 11 RDE Kayvon Thibodeaux 9
Ruben Brown 10 LG Jon Runyan Jr. 9
Rex Grossman 10 QB Daniel Jones 15
Tommie Harris (FA) 10 LDT Dexter Lawrence 13
Thomas Jones (FA) 9 RB Devin Singletary 9
Adewale Ogunleye (FA) 9 LDE Brian Burns 11
Roberto Garza 8 RG Jermaine Eluemunor 7
Fred Miller 8 RT Evan Neal
Muhsin Muhammad 8 (FA) WR Malik Nabers (rookie)
Now Bobby Okereke is no Brian Urlacher. LOL! But in the league for the 2023 season the Giants had one of the better linebacker corp. They had three players with a profootballreference Approximate Value (AV) of 8+. No other team in the NFC had that. There were four teams in the AFC that did – BAL, JAX, NWE and NYJ. In the NFC only the Saints had a sum of 8+ AV equal to the Giants with Demario Davis who had an AV of 16. PFF ranked the 2024 Giants linebacker corp as 5th in the league. I included OLBs in the AV counts. PFF did not so Thibs was in my analysis and not in PFF’s. But they did include Simmons.
Besides having great linebackers the 2006 Bears defense also had a good edge rusher corp. Likewise the Giants with Thibs and Brian Burns improved their corp via internal and free agency. The 3rd ranked 2006 Bears defense also bolstered their interior line. Comparably the 2023 Giants have Dexter Lawrence. Lawrence was PFF’s highest graded interior defender from 2023 and also the second highest among all qualifying defenders.
Over the three years from their 2004 disaster to their 2006 Super Bowl appearance the Bears bolstered their offensive line with three free agents - Ruben Brown, Roberto Garza and Fred Miller. Likewise the Giants have brought in Jon Runyan Jr and Jermaine Eluemunor. Garza and Miller were solid players but nothing extraordinaire. Rueben Brown had a great career but was toward the end of it. All three had great seasons in 2006. Evan Neal really needs to step up this season to make this work. The Bears also had Olin Kreutzwho went from a Pro Bowl player to All Pro. Hopefully Andrew Thomas can be that type of player. In 2022, he was named a second-team All-Pro, barely missing out on a Pro Bowl berth.
After the 2004 season running back Thomas Jones was five years thru his career and on the Bears his third team. The next season in 2005 his production took off and he had a good year in 2005 and 2006, breaking 1000 yards for the first time in his career each season. Singletary had similar production his first five years but a better yards/attempt.
Receiver Muhsin Muhammad was a free agent addition to the Bears in 2005 after making all-pro the year prior. He had 863 regular season receiving yards the Super Bowl season and was their lead receiver. Rookie Malik Nabers could have a similar if not better debut.
Bears quarterback Rex Grossman was on the team 3 years prior to the Super Bowl season with minimal starts and not much production. The Super Bowl year was his best career year. Even still it was not that spectacular a season. In passing yards for the regular season he was the 12th ranked quarterback and he was 21st in QBR. Daniel Jones should provide a better production based on his good years.
Bears 2006 rookie Devin Hester provided a Hall of Fame return game that season. In the regular season he had 3 punt return touchdowns and 2 kickoff return touchdowns. In the Super Bowl he had a kickoff return touchdown. Could the Giants get a game changer in the 2025 draft? CB/WR Travis Hunter of Colorado looks like one of the intriguing players with great potential. Plays offense and defense. May be a threat with the new kickoff rules.
If the 2004 Bears could make the Super Bowl two seasons later then there should be hope for the Giants. The 2006 Bears lost that Super Bowl but just get there and anything can happen.
Oddly enough, the Colts ran a similar defense.
A team like the 2006 bears is very much an anomaly in the NFL, and these days with the way defenses are forced to play, as well as the de-emphasis on kickoffs (until this upcoming season) it'll be tough for a team built that way to make a run in the playoffs.
Really tough for teams with QB play similar to Rex Grossman to be in it every week in the modern NFL. There's a reason teams aren't built like the 06 bears, and it's part of why a team like it hasn't made a championship appearance since then. Additionally, teams that thrive off turnovers as a big reason for success don't often replicate it the next season.
Regardless, I do think there are some interesting comparisons to be made with the '24 Giants.
Sub-par QB play means any chances at post season success is almost impossible.
Yeah I agree with you that one really pisses me off for some reason. Holy shit did I think that Chicago team was overrated as I did with Seattle in 2005.
Funny thing, I think I picked that same exact score that night but the Giants to win. Boy was I right and wrong at the same time.
How do you lose to Rex Grossman more than once?
Agreed. When the Giants beat them in 2007 in Chicago (great game) they looked as if they got knocked back down to earth.
Side note: I was really hoping the 2017 Eagles would be like 05 Seahawks, 06 Bears and 15 Panthers. Nope. they had the luck but they pulled it off ...
(thanks to the useless turd Matt Ryan and the refs)
Oddly enough, the Colts ran a similar defense.
A team like the 2006 bears is very much an anomaly in the NFL, and these days with the way defenses are forced to play, as well as the de-emphasis on kickoffs (until this upcoming season) it'll be tough for a team built that way to make a run in the playoffs.
Really tough for teams with QB play similar to Rex Grossman to be in it every week in the modern NFL. There's a reason teams aren't built like the 06 bears, and it's part of why a team like it hasn't made a championship appearance since then. Additionally, teams that thrive off turnovers as a big reason for success don't often replicate it the next season.
Regardless, I do think there are some interesting comparisons to be made with the '24 Giants.
Interesting that you bring up turnovers. The Giants were +12 last year.
And it wasn't really a one off season, they won 11 games the year prior.
And it wasn't really a one off season, they won 11 games the year prior.
That illustrates the turnaround. In 2004 they had one Pro Bowl player and zero all pro players. Although I do admit they had Brian Urlacher who happened to have a bad year in 2004. There OL was upgraded over the two-three years prior to 2006 and Thomas Jones had been just a so-so back up until 2005.
But wishful thinking is nice I guess.
Quote:
Two of whom were first team all Pros. They had a really good OL and Thomas Jones had a pretty good year running behind them.
And it wasn't really a one off season, they won 11 games the year prior.
That illustrates the turnaround. In 2004 they had one Pro Bowl player and zero all pro players. Although I do admit they had Brian Urlacher who happened to have a bad year in 2004. There OL was upgraded over the two-three years prior to 2006 and Thomas Jones had been just a so-so back up until 2005.
Funny thing about Jones, he fell victim to being drafted by Arizona. Top ten pick who plays second fiddle behind lesser tlaent for three years. Gets to Chicago after the same thing in Tampa and starts a very productive run with them and Jets.
This has nothing to do with The Bears. In other words, if the Bears didn't make the Super Bowl - things would still be the same. It comes down to health, talent, fundamentals, good coaching, and some luck.