NFT: 2024 Yankees Long Form Draft Review

I’ll acknowledge that I was skeptical after the first pick, which I didn’t like (for value – I do like Hess). But I loved the next six picks and they got plenty of value on Day 3 too. This is a weird draft for NYY. Not a bad draft, but a weird one. They didn’t draft a prep until Round 20, which is not unprecedented (and reflects a wider reemphasis across baseball, which probably owes to the condensed minors). A JUCO and a young junior. They didn’t touch hitters until the senior signs at the end of Day 2. They drafted more speed than they usually do. They absolutely dogpiled one demographic, the big-bodied RHP with extension. The vast majority of their picks were from below the Mason-Dixon line and east of the Mississippi. Nobody from California, which is rare for an Oppenheimer-led Scouting Department, nor is anyone from the Northeast, unique among the last few drafts. Heavy on the SEC, double-dipping from both Vandy and LSU and touching up Bama, Auburn, and Ole Miss too (with a UGA transfer commit for good measure).

My armchair analysis is this. Pitching on the farm has had a rough year. Arguably their three best pitching prospects have lost at least half a season to injury, and most of the rest – guys who were either established or who they expected to break out – have been so-so or underperformed, or have gone under the knife themselves. Last year’s draft, which was heavier on hitters and on preps than recent drafts, has not produced a ton of return as of yet. Riggio and Lombard have been better of late and Cade Smith flashes the sort of talent they thought they were drafting, but so far the draft picks haven’t built much value. So pitching prospects, who have formed the bulk of their trade chips for the last five or six years, are depleted.

So a need for pitching prospects and a draft with an underwhelming crop of college hitters. I would have preferred a prep bat, but my “scouting” of preps is limited to BA and Youtube so if they didn’t think a given prep SS or CF was worth slot or more, so be it. The prep pitching demographic looked pretty solid to me, but the pitchers they drafted early have comparable ceiling, they’re closer, and their asks are likely to be smaller, which allowed them to take ceiling later. Long story short, they loaded up on the sorts of players they are most confident in their ability to turn into big leaguers and/or valuable trade chips.

I joked on Twitter after the first 7 rounds that Sam Briend must have locked himself in the draft room and was making all the picks himself. And the draft is an absolute gift to Briend and Blake. Since Blake took over, the Yankees have drafted just a handful of college arms with premium picks. Drew Thorpe is a top prospect. Beck has been bitten hard by the injury bug. Trystan Vrieling is finally healthy. Hess, Cunningham, Hurd, and Herring have talent levels that rival any college draftee the Yankees have sent their way, each with legit 2-3 starter upside if all goes well, and Ziehl, Carter, and Mack Estrada have big-time talent in their own rights (albeit in very different ways). And Parliament, Bauman, Rivas, Hughes, and Decker are all cut from the cloth of so many of the guys the Yankees have developed over the last five or six years, college kids with “stories,” small-school kids or kids with unique traits or with injury concerns. This is a beefed up version of the 2021 and 2022 drafts that brought the Yankees so many talented arms to develop.

Commentators have noted that outside of Ziehl these aren’t really the archetypal Blake arms like Thorpe, Beck, or Warren with above average or plus control, but guys like Vrieling, Chase Hampton, and Cade Smith struggled with control in college too. Briend hinted that they like guys with feel who haven’t connected it all yet – perhaps an indication that projectable control/pitchability pitchers are starting to be drafted commensurate with their value – but they’ve never been cookie-cutter with their scouting or with their development and this is no different. They excel at certain things, like adding velocity and developing the sweeper, but their analytics and biomechanics are individualized and have become more, not less, tailored.

The hitters come with stories of their own, usually a standout attribute like the wheels of Jones and Toole, the contact ability of Green, or the pop of Delossantos and Lewis (the latter a 20/20 guy). It’s no secret that NYY has struggled to get much return from later-round bats. Ben Rice is a notable exception, and Ben Cowles and Brandon Lockridge are knocking on the door with strong 2024s, so there are some hopeful indicators that the revamping of their hitting development program in the minors is starting to pay dividends. There are certainly contrary examples, though I won’t name them. This will be a test of whether they have the right people and processes in place.

The hard sign is likely to be Cole Royer, with an outside shot either Brendan Jones and/or Xavier Rivas decide(s) to head back to school. My guess is Griffin Herring, Mack Estrada, and maybe Wyatt Parliament stand to get a little extra money, though all should sign.

I’m indebted to MLB Pipeline (Callis and Mayo), BA, Keith Law, Mike Axisa, John Brophy, Bobby Milone, and a handful of other Twitter accounts that aggregate information. If some of the info seems contradictory, that’s not a coincidence. I’m reading scouting reports written sometimes years ago, and some of the national pubs cover close to a thousand prospects on a shoestring.

Round 1: Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama, JR/21, 6’5” 255

Hess is a likely underslot and most outlets had him as a 2nd round value (Law had him ranked 24) but make no mistake, he’s an immensely talented kid. At least two 60 or better offerings in a FB that sits 92-96 T99 with life and a mid-80s two-plane slider, each of which had a whiff rate north of 30%. He can manipulate his slider into a cutter, and Fangraphs loves his curve which it said had a whiff rate of 59% this year. He also has a change that he throws less frequently. He added a two-seamer late in the year. He had an insane 106:35 K:BB over 68.1. The downside though, which is why he was considered a poor value at 26, is the BB rate, the 13 HRs, and just a general susceptibility to right-handed hitters barreling him up. He also dealt with past back and flexor injuries. Last year he missed time with the flexor strain but still managed an impressive 49:8 K:BB over 36.1 IP, with a 3.22 ERA and 7 HRs. He had a great Cape stint in 2022, 15:5 over 11 IP with a 1.64 ERA (2 ERs). If he’s healthy and he can stay around the strike zone the way he did in 2023, he is a needle-up starter, with the potential for two plus breaking balls and as much ceiling as anyone outside of Hagen Smith and Chase Burns. He’s a perceived underslot, but he's still a huge talent. There is some chatter that conditioning is part of the reason why his command suffered, but who knows? The favorite comp is Lance Lynn, and getting that sort of outcome at 26 would be impressive.

Round 2: Bryce Cunningham, RHP, Vanderbilt, JR/21, 6’5” 230

Cunningham was probably Vandy’s best starter this year, holding low to mid-90’s FB velocity (T99) in his first year starting and pairing that with an elite change said to have late tunnel, with 20” horizontal break and an insane 53% whiff rate, that is his primary swing and miss offering. Keith Law notes that his four-seamer did generate hard contact, including 9 of 14 HRs on the season. His slider is lagging and will need work, but he’s going to the right guys to do it. After two years as a swingman, Cunningham had a nice 2023 starting on the Cape, with a 25:7 K:BB over 22.2 IP with a 2.38 ERA and just 1 HR allowed. This year in the rotation he went 96:34 over 84.2 with those aforementioned 14 HRs and a 4.36 ERA. With his bulk and his limited starting reps, he’s a good bet to take steps forward as a pro.

Round 3: Thatcher Hurd, RHP, LSU, JR/21, 6’4” 230

A former top HS prospect, Hurd started his career brilliantly at UCLA, throwing to a 1.06 ERA over 34 IP with a 48:10 K:BB. His freshman season was cut short by a significant back injury, and he transferred to LSU. Hurd is a big-body hurler who complements a mid-90s FB T 97-98 with two big breaking balls, a mid-80s slider and a high-RPM curve that both profile as plus (everyone agrees the slider is elite – two-plane movement, seven inches of sweep – but there is some dispute over the effectiveness of the curve). His change is a work in progress. He struggles a bit against same-side hitters, something I’m sure the development folks will key on. His bigger issue is location. Last year he was 84:40 K:BB in 63.1 IP and this year he was 56:24 in 44 IP. His ERA went from 5.68 up to 6.55 in his second year of bouncing between the rotation and the pen. He helped himself with a strong outing in the Regionals against a potent UNC offense, going 5.2 IP and allowing 2 R, with 0 BB and 0 HRs. He had a short, promising Cape stint this summer, 7:3 K:BB over 9.2 IP with a 1.86 ERA. Keith Law says he has trouble repeating his delivery, which probably generate the location issues. With his body type and his arsenal he will absolutely get a chance to start.

Round 4: Gage Ziehl, RHP, Miami, JR/21, 6’0” 223

Ziehl had better results than the first three arms in college but doesn’t have the swing and miss stuff. This year he went 100 IP with an 89:28 K:BB and a 3.87 ERA with 11 HRs. Last year his ERA was higher at 4.30 but his peripherals were better, 100:21 over 92 IP with 10 HRs. He performed well in a mixed role on the Cape in 2022, with 7 appearances (3 starts), 23 IP, and a 31:6 K:BB and a stellar 2.35 ERA. He sits around 93 T95 with his FB but he’s been higher in relief. He can locate it well in the zone. His best secondary is an above average slider with cutter traits. He also throws a CH that is effective against LHPs but isn’t really swing and miss. His control is at least above average, Keith Law puts a plus grade on it. He has a reputation as a bulldog, but one with savvy and the ability to move and sequence and change speeds to get outs. He’s a high floor guy, as a primarily FB/slider pitcher with good control he’s going to the right team.

Round 5: Greysen Carter, RHP, Vanderbilt, JR/21, 6’4” 237

Carter features a huge, lively FB that sits 96-98 and touches triple digits. It’s not easy to square up, which is why he gave up just 4 longballs over 39.2 IP. His K:BB is a less stellar 38:31, with 5 HBP and 9 wild pitches for Vandy this year as he pitched to a 6.58 ERA in a swingman, mostly relief role. Last year his 4.08 ERA didn’t reflect better command (23:28 over 29.2 IP with 5 HBP and 5 wild pitches) but he surrendered fewer hits, 16 versus 38 this year. In between he had a nice Cape cameo, throwing 14.1 IP of starting and relief with a 1.88 ERA and a 14:9 K:BB but just 5 hits against. Nobody doubts the fastball, least of all Carter, which is why he throws it roughly 70% of the time. He also throws a fringe average change that has good action but that he doesn’t locate well. His breaking stuff lags, and he hasn’t chosen between a slider and a curve (both are below average but MLB pipeline says the curve is marginally more reliable). He has close to bottom of the scale control right now. If he can develop a second offering he can locate, he could become a leverage reliever. If he can develop two, he could be a starter. Failing that, he’s probably a low-leverage reliever. But you can’t teach 103. He reminds me a bit of the Reyzelman pick, although Reyzelman had a plus breaking pitch (and a shorter track record that made him a bigger surprise). He has a really touching backstory, having lost his family home to a fire and getting cut from the Vandy team in the same offseason but bouncing back.

Round 6: Griffin Herring, LHP, LSU, SO/21, 6’2” 196

Maybe my favorite draft pick of Day 2, at least for value. Herring was an elite reliever for the Tigers, leaning heavily on a plus sweeper as his put-away pitch. His FB velocity is low 90s T94-95, but it moves, which is why he only surrendered 2 HRs in 50.1 IP of relief this year. His 67:13 K:BB and 1.79 ERA were impressive, as was his lack of a platoon split (per Keith Law), and he followed his dominant sophomore campaign up with 3 strong, if brief, starts on the Cape, going 10.2 IP with a 1.69 ERA and a 10:6 K:BB (just 3 hits). On July 3rd he had a strong 5IP outing for Chatham, surrendering just a solo shot and 2 BBs and striking out 4. Herring’s mechanics could use smoothing out, but he throws plenty of strikes. Key to his development as a starter – and I assume he will get the chance – is his ability to develop a passable third pitch, likely by working on his little-used changeup. Herring is one of the best relievers on the board and they could certainly give him a chance to move quickly, but with his control and the fact that they’re going to have to pay a premium to sign him as a DES I’ll bet he gets the chance to start. He threw 4.2 scoreless in an elimination game against Wake Forest with 6 Ks so stretching him out is certainly on the table. Someone dropped an Andrew Abbott comp on him and I’d love that as an outcome.

Round 7: Wyatt Parliament, RHP, VPI, JR/20, 6’4” 215

Parliament is another stuff-over-results guy. He grew up a Sox fan and did finish his career at VPI but he had a couple years at Rutgers so we don’t need to hold it against him. Parliament threw to an ugly 7.63 ERA over 43.2 IP as a swingman, but his 59:13 K:BB suggests there is a lot to build on. His bugaboo was the longball, with 14 of his 43 hits leaving the yard. His K and BB rates improved markedly in the ACC; in 2023 at Rutgers he threw to a 31:15 over 27 relief IP (5.00 ERA) and in 2022 it was 26:24 over 34.1 swingman IP (3.15 ERA). He was much less prone to the longball though, 3 in ’23 and 4 in ’22. Like most of their first ten picks he did touch the Cape, with a forgettable 3 IP outing for Bourne in which his line read 5 H 3 R 2 ER 2 BB 3 K and a HR. He sits low 90’s with his FB but touches 97, and it has a low release point and life (17” of ride and 13.6” of run, per ESM). He pairs that with a cutting slider and sprinkles in his change on occasion. Keith Law says that the bulk of his movement is north-south and that’s why lefties tend to tee off on him a little bit. He’s a big body and he’s just 20 so he’s got a lot of projection left. He probably gets slot, though he might get a few extra dollars based on his age.

Round 8: Tyler Wilson, SHH, OF, GCU, SR/22, 6’2” 210

WAC Player of the Year, Wilson hit .405 in conference play, slashing .378/.441/.691 overall with a 24:34 BB:K, 17 HRs, 18 2Bs, and 2 3Bs in 263 PAs. Wilson’s four-year college slash is an impressive .332/.403/.517. He was a LF this year but he has played C and 1B in prior years. His contact and power both impress, though his BB rate is a little low for someone with his power. He apparently had shoulder issues and so his throwing ability is limited. Wilson went to the same AZ high school as Josh Tiedemann and Brock Selvidge and they previously picked Taylor Aguilar out of GCU. Wilson was born in Taiwan to former MLBer (and current Yankee international cross-checker) Steve Wilson, who was in Taiwan coaching when he met Tyler’s mother. He’s probably an underslot but he has talent, savvy, and baseball bloodlines.

Round 9: Tanner Bauman, LHP, Auburn, SR/22, 6’5” 222

Bauman was primarily a reliever in his two years at Auburn after beginning his college career in the JUCO ranks. His 4.57 ERA this year and his 47:16 K:BB over 41.1 IP were improvements over his 2023 campaign, when he managed a 5.77 ERA and a 42:28 K:BB over 53 IP. He allowed 7 HRs in 2024 and 6 in 2023. He’s likely an underslot but he has good stuff, an 89-91 MPH FB (T94) that he throws from a low slot and a sweeping slider. He has a little-used change that he’ll need to develop if they want him to start. With his height, his extension, and his movement, he could excel as a two-pitch reliever. He has signed.

Round 10: Joe Delossantos, RHH, OF, W&M, SR/23, 5’10” 220

5-year senior from W&M who slashed a remarkable .330/.431/.584 with 38:56 BB:K, 14 2Bs, and 14 HRs over 274 PAs, 17/23 on SB attempts. He had a strong 2022, OPSing .954, and then dropped to .835 in 2023. He played in the Valley for three summers, slashing .318/.429/.627 in 2023 with a 20:25 BB:K over 134 PAs. He’s a career 54/69 on SB attempts as a collegian and his BB rates have consistently improved, though he’s likely to have swing and miss against pro pitching. Big exit velo numbers (maxing out at 118.6 with a metal bat) and respectable run times. He’s almost certainly a slot savings, but an intriguing one. He has signed.

Round 11: Mack Estrada, RHP, NW Florida State (JUCO), J1/20, 6’4” 220

One of the top JUCO arms in the country this year (Prep Baseball Report had him as the best) from the same JUCO as Beck Way, Estrada’s results were okay but his stuff is the sort pitching development folks dream on. He threw to a 4.20 ERA over 79.1 IP, with a 94:42 K:BB and just 1 HR allowed. In the JUCO WS he struck out 9 consecutive batters, so there were flashes of dominant performance. But it’s the stuff that NYY is dreaming on. He’s said to be low to mid 90’s on the FB T96 with movement, pairing it with a nasty slider that has good break and depth and profiles as plus at its best, and a change grades out as above average at its best and that he trusts, one that Axisa said tunnels well with his slider. He still walks too many people, but he’s got a big, projectable frame and he’s young so he’s the sort of arm you dream on. Estrada is a Florida State commit and will require more than the $150K post-pool max to sign.

Round 12: Brendan Jones, LHH, OF, Kansas State, SR/22, 5’10” 180

Probably the best bat they drafted to this point and maybe the one most likely to have a big-league future, slashing .303/.442/.500 with a 55:51 BB:K over 297 PAs, with 9 HRs, and 40/42 SBs. He hit a 440’ shot against my Cavaliers that I saw live so he does have pop, but his calling card is the wheels. 70/77 on SB attempts across 2+ years of Big 12 baseball. Hit well in a couple years of Appy league ball, with a .900+ OPS in 2023 and .800+ in 2022 with an improving K rate. He’s 22 and he’s not a premium prospect, but he’s patient, he has big wheels, and he’s a legit CF (a Rawlings Gold Glove Award Finalist) so he’s a prospect.

Round 13: Dillon Lewis, RHH, OF, Queens University of Charlotte (NC), JR/21, 6’3” 205

Interesting kid who followed his school up to D1, specifically the Atlantic Sun Conference, scuffling in 2023 and then hitting his stride in 2024 with one of only two 20/20 seasons in D1 (the other was Vance Honeycutt). He slashed .371/.444/.729 with a 28:46 BB:K and 22 HRs across 261 PAs, with 20/24 on SBs. He OPSed 1.211 with a 13:15 BB:K and 6 HRs over 90 PAs in the SCBL last summer. Said to have above average raw power. Predominately a LF, he has played all three OF positions. Described by one evaluator as above average to plus speed with the chance to stick in CF.

Round 14: Austin Green, SHH, 2B, Texas Tech, SR/22, 6’0” 195

Began at Weatherford College in TX before switching to Texas Tech for his final two years, he slashed an impressive .322/.435/.546 with a 31:21 BB:K and 8 HRs over 216 PAs this year. Last year he went .290/.418/.542 with a 41:41 BB:K and 12 HRs over 273 PAs. Contact skills are exceptional with <10% K rate, and he complements that with a patient approach. He played exclusively 2B last year and mostly RF this year, though he is listed as a 2B.

Round 15: Marshall Toole, LHH, OF, Wofford, JR/21, 5’11” 185

Wofford CF slashed an impressed .375/.461/.617 with a 38:49 BB:K , 9 HRs, 15 2Bs, and a remarkable 10 3Bs over 314 PAs, with 43/46 on SBs, second in D1. He played summer ball in Vermont last year, slashing an impressive but power-light .292/.389/.342 and 18:27 BB:K over 142 PAs with 21/23 on SBs. His wood bat numbers and his size hint at limited power potential, but he has a good approach and the speed to contribute offensively. He’s got the coveted “dirtbag” label, the gamer tag that attaches to smaller guys who don’t necessarily have a standout tool (speed notwithstanding) but who make things happen anyway.

Round 16: Xavier Rivas, LHP, Ole Miss, SR/22, 6’4” 235

Senior draftee from Ole Miss who missed 2024 with a UCL tear. Rivas had a dominant sophomore year at D2 Indianapolis in 2022, where he posted a 2.24 ERA and an insane 128:31 K:BB over 80.1 IP. He spent the summer in Northwoods, throwing to a 2.25 ERA with a 41:13 K:BB over 24 IP. He transitioned to the SEC, where he struggled with command in 2023. He pitched to a 6.35 ERA over 68 IP with an 89:40 K:BB and 15 HRs allowed. He went down with an UCL tear in the preseason and will probably be ready sometime next spring. Pre-injury he was said to sit low 90s with movement and a swing and miss breaking slider that was his go-to put-away pitch. He’ll need to address command and the longball but with his size and his already having swing and miss stuff he’s definitely worth the gamble. People are talking about his maybe returning to school because he does have an additional year of eligibility, but the numbers don’t really add up. He apparently had the surgery in February, which would probably put him on track for an April or May 2025 return. Are Ole Miss boosters really going to throw NIL money at him so he can (maybe) pitch the SEC tourney?

Round 17: JoJo Jackson, SH, OF, Georgia State, JR/21, 6’2” 215

Jackson slashed an impressive .310/.394/.655 with a 21:50 BB:K and 15 HRs over 199 PAs this year at GSU, before OPSing 1.027 with a 10:12 BB:K and 9 XBHs over 85 PAs in the MLB Draft League. Last year he slashed .319/.437/.595 with a 36:64 BB:K and 13 HRs over 233 PAs and then posted a .319/.413/.447 slash with 29:47 BB:K and 4 HRs over 223 PAs in the wood bat Northwoods league. He wasn’t much of a base-stealer, going 12/13 over 3 years of college ball, though he did run a bit in the Northwoods, going 12/16. He has a big arm but he’s primarily a corner OF, and swing and miss will probably be a part of his game, but he exceled against other prospects and he’s worth a 17th round selection. He committed to UGA in the transfer portal so I thought he might consider going back to school, but he’s signed.

Round 18: Gus Hughes, RHP, High Point (NC), SR/22, 6’0” 190

One of BA’s top 100 senior signs, he threw to an impressive 3.77 ERA with 111:41 K:BB over 102.2 IP. He surrendered 22 HRs and hit 16 batters, so he seems to be effectively wild. Last year he threw 81.1 IP with a 4.98 ERA, 90:35 K:BB, 14 HRs allowed, along with 15 HBPs and 15 WPs. In between he had a cup of coffee on the Cape, making 2 appearances for a total of 4.1 IP, 5 H 5 R 5 ER 4 BB 6 K 1 HBP. He is said to have a low 90’s FB (T95), a slider that is his primary strikeout pitch, and a curve and change he throws less frequently. Scouting reports from 2022 credited the curve as a high-RPM hammer; I don’t know if that has backed up or not. He seems to be effectively wild, at least to a degree. Interesting get at this point. My guess is he resisted attempts to low-ball him on Day 2, or they fell through.

Round 19: Brandon Decker, RHP, Oakland (MI), SR/22, 6’3” 185

2024 Horizon League Pitcher of the Year. 5.44 ERA this year, 105:34 K:BB across 102.2 IP with 12 HRs, 18 HBPs, and 12 WPs. If you’re wondering why he was Pitcher of the Year with a 5.44 ERA, the league average was north of 8, an insanely hitter-friendly league. He pitched two summers in the Appy league, throwing 66.1 combined IP with an 84:28 K:BB and a 3.53 ERA and just 2 HRs with the wood bats. BA ranked him among their top 100 senior signs, describing his arsenal as three-quarters slot, 90-91 FB T95 with run and what BA described as a “unique approach angle”, a slider with cutter traits that was his primary out pitch, a curve that at one point had 18 inches of vertical break, and a change.

Round 20: Cole Royer, RHP, Pierce County HS (GA), 18, 6’6” 195

Their first prep pick is their last selection, a lanky, projectable righty who sits low 90s T95 with a high-spin curve with big vertical break that’s been described as slurvy, along with a slider that shows promise but that he’s less comfortable using in games. He throws a change sporadically. He’s raw, with inconsistent mechanics and a “herky-jerky delivery,” said to throw out of stretch exclusively. His FB and breaking ball commands are variable at this point. He’s a Georgia Tech commit so he may not be signable in Round 20, but they should have additional pool money to try.