Art Stapleton @art_stapleton
Have not seen Episode 4 of Hard Knocks, but sounds like walk-up and day of the NFL Draft is covered, right up until the start of the draft.
Joe Schoen teased a draft day meeting with John Mara, Steve Tisch and Brian Daboll on
@PSchrags
HK podcast.
Next week's finale, presumably, will be the draft and some spring wrap-up.
I have zero misgivings about Daboll's ability to assess talent and develop quarterbacks.
I think you underestimate what part Schoen plays in the ultimate decision to acquire and retain the quarterbacks who play for Daboll.
why do you suspect schoen would have more influence? is it not clear that even the position coaches are highly involved in the draft evals? daboll was clearly the most outwardly enthusiastic about nabers (schoen seemed to have more enthusiasm for odunze at the combine). in the fragments we saw schoen was asking the coaches which of the QBs they would feel conviction in trading up for.
the entire premise of hiring 2 guys in lock step like schoen/daboll is that they are going to work well together. it seems a stretch to think that schoen would ever do anything at QB daboll was opposed to or not enthusiastic about.
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I can understand not selecting a QB you don't like. However, I do find it concerning that with our extreme need at the position, we didn't like one of Penix, McCarthy or Nix enough to draft them in round 1?
I think you can conclude that they didn't view QB as an "extreme need".
Sure, they were willing to upgrade at the right price, but they weren't desperate. Unfortunately.
The mantra used by Schoen throughout this series has been Jones is a health risk. But, as far as I can tell, not really a risk as a talent. They believe in his talent.
If that is true, I find that very troubling.
while id arrive a slightly different conclusion from your 4th sentence, i think the first 3 sentences of analysis are correct.
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
The mantra used by Schoen throughout this series has been Jones is a health risk. But, as far as I can tell, not really a risk as a talent. They believe in his talent.
I think a lot of that was the company line to get ahead of not succeeding in getting a Russ to directly compete in UFA or being able to trade up for a QB. They were willing to give up multiple premium picks to trade up for a QB despite glaring holes with elite options at other high value positions like WR and OT. Think that speaks to how they feel about his overall talent. He's a bandaid. There probably is an element of "what if" lingering in the back of their heads for sure but I'm not reading too much into whatever messaging they're pushing out for damage control purposes.
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
You don't pull out of it by repeating it with a QB they have evaluated as on par with Daniel Jones. They should have "Transition Tag" Jones after 2022 and let Barkley walk. That is how you get out of 2019 mistake.
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
For example, I assume they both agreed Maye was a quarterback they would like to acquire. But it seems crystal clear how far they would go to get him was Schoen's decision. I don't think Daboll has a substantive seat at the table for the resource and investment portion.
I bet the same was true for Jones. I am sure Schoen and Daboll agreed they wanted to keep Jones. But the terms, depth, and length of commitment appear to be up to Schoen.
And in that universe, what the coach wants can be dampened by what the general manager deems acceptable.
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In comment 16558460 The Mike said:
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
You don't pull out of it by repeating it with a QB they have evaluated as on par with Daniel Jones. They should have "Transition Tag" Jones after 2022 and let Barkley walk. That is how you get out of 2019 mistake.
Ok so play that scenario out. Jones walks after 2023.
What do they do at quarterback?
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
I agree completely. But they can't make the same mistake again. You were right I believe on Penix. I do think hindsight will show that he might have been the steal of this draft - maybe even the Lamar Jackson of this draft. But I can't fault Schoen given Penix' injury history/risk. And Nix and JJM are not top ten prospects and precisely what Gettleman did wrong in 2019. Wilson and Darnold are currently above them on their depth charts! Could one of them be a Josh Allen? Absolutely not! Frankly, I don't think either of them can be a Brock Purdy! And more than anybody, Daboll would know.
To your point though, they absolutely should have drafted either Milton or Pratt in the sixth round and firmly established the meritocratic process of annually drafting a quarterback until we have our elite guy. That was indeed a failure and I will be interested to see next week on Hard Knocks if that comes up at all.
For example, I assume they both agreed Maye was a quarterback they would like to acquire. But it seems crystal clear how far they would go to get him was Schoen's decision. I don't think Daboll has a substantive seat at the table for the resource and investment portion.
I bet the same was true for Jones. I am sure Schoen and Daboll agreed they wanted to keep Jones. But the terms, depth, and length of commitment appear to be up to Schoen.
And in that universe, what the coach wants can be dampened by what the general manager deems acceptable.
He did ask Daboll if he would trade up for Daniels or Maye. But to your point, it's up to Schoen to determine the price.
What is still a mystery is why Schoen didn't trade Barkley last season. Did he think he could resign him? I know the narrative is that Mara told him not to do that, but this series seems to show that Mara defers to Schoen, which I realize is not how many on BBI view Mara.
The Giants badly underpredicted the cap - I wonder how that compares to how other teams predicted the cap - and that did have an impact on their ability to retain McKinney, though I think GB overpaid for him, and at that price, he was not worth retaining.
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In comment 16558460 The Mike said:
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
I agree completely. But they can't make the same mistake again. You were right I believe on Penix. I do think hindsight will show that he might have been the steal of this draft - maybe even the Lamar Jackson of this draft. But I can't fault Schoen given Penix' injury history/risk. And Nix and JJM are not top ten prospects and precisely what Gettleman did wrong in 2019. Wilson and Darnold are currently above them on their depth charts! Could one of them be a Josh Allen? Absolutely not! Frankly, I don't think either of them can be a Brock Purdy! And more than anybody, Daboll would know.
To your point though, they absolutely should have drafted either Milton or Pratt in the sixth round and firmly established the meritocratic process of annually drafting a quarterback until we have our elite guy. That was indeed a failure and I will be interested to see next week on Hard Knocks if that comes up at all.
Penix is going to start at QB when he's what, 28? That pick made no sense at the time and it still makes no sense.
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In comment 16558499 Go Terps said:
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In comment 16558460 The Mike said:
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
I agree completely. But they can't make the same mistake again. You were right I believe on Penix. I do think hindsight will show that he might have been the steal of this draft - maybe even the Lamar Jackson of this draft. But I can't fault Schoen given Penix' injury history/risk. And Nix and JJM are not top ten prospects and precisely what Gettleman did wrong in 2019. Wilson and Darnold are currently above them on their depth charts! Could one of them be a Josh Allen? Absolutely not! Frankly, I don't think either of them can be a Brock Purdy! And more than anybody, Daboll would know.
To your point though, they absolutely should have drafted either Milton or Pratt in the sixth round and firmly established the meritocratic process of annually drafting a quarterback until we have our elite guy. That was indeed a failure and I will be interested to see next week on Hard Knocks if that comes up at all.
Penix is going to start at QB when he's what, 28? That pick made no sense at the time and it still makes no sense.
I agree it was a reach and made no sense for Atlanta. But Penix has an elite passer ceiling, which will become evident at the pro level, moreso than at the college level. But it was a reach given his injury history. I was actually hoping he would be there in the second round so the Giants could go get him. I have no idea what Atlanta was thinking - terrible pick for them.
I'm actually happy they didn't trade down with the Bears for an extra third and fourth. The trade apparently would have required us to include our fifth, but even if it didn't, I still wouldn't pass on Nabers for an extra third or fourth. Trading with the Vikings for #11 and #23 would have been more tempting, but I would still have probably said no to that as well.
For example, I assume they both agreed Maye was a quarterback they would like to acquire. But it seems crystal clear how far they would go to get him was Schoen's decision. I don't think Daboll has a substantive seat at the table for the resource and investment portion.
I bet the same was true for Jones. I am sure Schoen and Daboll agreed they wanted to keep Jones. But the terms, depth, and length of commitment appear to be up to Schoen.
And in that universe, what the coach wants can be dampened by what the general manager deems acceptable.
in that view the coach is only dampened by how hard he doesnt push against the gm. in anyone's area of expertise it is up to them to own the responsibility of making their case to the correct degree.
a common theme in the analysis of this team is excuse making by removing agency from the people who's responsibility it is to get specific decisions in their specific expert domains right. at a very fundamental level daboll can not miss on someone he views as "the next josh allen" bc of schoen value dampening, or kafka disagreeing, or mcdonnell/chris/john interfering. it is on him to both get it right and get it done. if he doesn't in 2 years he's ben mcadoo leaking his 'coulda beens' to the ny post hoping to drum up his next job.
right or wrong sean payton showed how qb decisions get made by winning coaches. they dont get dampened into something they disagree with.
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In comment 16558499 Go Terps said:
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In comment 16558460 The Mike said:
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
You don't pull out of it by repeating it with a QB they have evaluated as on par with Daniel Jones. They should have "Transition Tag" Jones after 2022 and let Barkley walk. That is how you get out of 2019 mistake.
Ok so play that scenario out. Jones walks after 2023.
What do they do at quarterback?
If Jones walked after 2023 I would look at Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson on a bridge deal as a UFA or I would consider moving a late round pick for Fields and not pick up his option which would put him in a similar situation as Jones.
This will be the most important debate to have over the next few years, and one we can't determine conclusively today.
The real question is whether the Giants fell into the great vs. the enemy of good complex. This is a very common reaction after making a big mistake.
They just need to move on from Jones. Let's face it. If they had made the offer to Russell Wilson for vet minimum and assured him that he would be the starter in 2024, we would unequivocally be talking playoff football right now for this team. With the front seven on defense and our very deep receiver corps, there isn't a doubt in my mind that we would be a top fifteen team now rather than a bottom five team.
Now in hindsight, we would have had a shot at Russ on the vet min this year if we had tagged Jones last year and let him walk. Probably still a dog to the Steelers though. We probably would have been in the market for Cousins or Darnold on a bridge.
Next year they're likely pulling the trigger on a non-perfect option. Whether that be a bridge + their Nix/Levis type or overpaying a non-elite QB free agent.
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
I despise Gettleman for the destruction he oversaw. However, the one smart thing he said is that picking the wrong QB will set back a franchise 5 years. Sadly for us, that was a self fulfilling prophecy. With that said, the Giants clearly did not view McCarthy, Penix or Nix worth a top 10 pick. If DJ sucks as expected, the record will suck as well and the Giants will once again be picking high next year and moving on from DJ. One should presume they view the QB’s coming out next year more favorably then those 3.
For example, I assume they both agreed Maye was a quarterback they would like to acquire. But it seems crystal clear how far they would go to get him was Schoen's decision. I don't think Daboll has a substantive seat at the table for the resource and investment portion.
I bet the same was true for Jones. I am sure Schoen and Daboll agreed they wanted to keep Jones. But the terms, depth, and length of commitment appear to be up to Schoen.
And in that universe, what the coach wants can be dampened by what the general manager deems acceptable.
in that view the coach is only dampened by how hard he doesnt push against the gm. in anyone's area of expertise it is up to them to own the responsibility of making their case to the correct degree.
a common theme in the analysis of this team is excuse making by removing agency from the people who's responsibility it is to get specific decisions in their specific expert domains right. at a very fundamental level daboll can not miss on someone he views as "the next josh allen" bc of schoen value dampening, or kafka disagreeing, or mcdonnell/chris/john interfering. it is on him to both get it right and get it done. if he doesn't in 2 years he's ben mcadoo leaking his 'coulda beens' to the ny post hoping to drum up his next job.
right or wrong sean payton showed how qb decisions get made by winning coaches. they dont get dampened into something they disagree with.
I suspect the guy with 145 more career wins and a championship has greater organizational influence.
Cut through the casting decisions for the made for TV docudrama, and it's still crystal clear Daboll isn't the principal architect.
Daboll and Schoen are doing this together for the first time. They seem to be and should be augmenting each other's weaknesses and/or inexperiences. Whether that sum is enough is TBD. Whether that's even right approach is TBD.
But Schoen is clearly a huge part of the decision matrix, and the Giants success is clearly in large part going to be based on him.
I suspect the guy with 145 more career wins and a championship has greater organizational influence.
of course he does, that's why he got paid $100m. but he wouldnt have that championship, triple digit wins, or that bank account if he hadn't been courageous before having all those things and been willing to go all in on brees even after the dolphins flunked his medical.
i can tell you with actual knowledge of what happened that when he cut russell wilson he didnt give anyone in the broncos organization a choice or a say. it was plainly told that while russell wilson is still a capable qb and may even go on to succeed elsewhere on their dime, that was of no concern bc they need to focus on finding their guy. and he wasnt it.
it doesnt matter how much $ daboll has in the bank right now, either he is that guy who will force the issue when he has a conviction or he isnt. this isnt just a sean payton thing either, kyle shannahan, pete carroll, sean mcvay, lafleur, have all had to lead similar difficult decisions. head coaches lead or they get fired.
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In comment 16558460 The Mike said:
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
I despise Gettleman for the destruction he oversaw. However, the one smart thing he said is that picking the wrong QB will set back a franchise 5 years. Sadly for us, that was a self fulfilling prophecy. With that said, the Giants clearly did not view McCarthy, Penix or Nix worth a top 10 pick. If DJ sucks as expected, the record will suck as well and the Giants will once again be picking high next year and moving on from DJ. One should presume they view the QB’s coming out next year more favorably then those 3.
Drafting the wrong QB doesn't set you back 5 years. Sticking to him does. Watching Mara say a potential test would give him heart palpitations was infuriating. Why? He can't be fired, the team stinks, and he doesn't have a QB! From Mara's perspective what is there to lose by trading up to get a QB?
Watching this show is like watching a car spin its wheels in quicksand.
I believe the names in blue were those still with the team that drafted them.
The better exercise would have been to compare Jones to some of those names in red. That would have been embarrassing.
I think you're describing how you would prefer things to operate. I am describing how -- with the aid of potentially the most transparent contemporary evidence afforded fans to a front office ever -- I believe they appear to be.
Schoen is a big part of the decision matrix, and the Giants need him to be a good at it.
I despise Gettleman for the destruction he oversaw. However, the one smart thing he said is that picking the wrong QB will set back a franchise 5 years. Sadly for us, that was a self fulfilling prophecy.
Too many on this board have this phobia of missing out on a high pick for QB.
But missing on the pick is actually fine IF you pivot quickly enough to move on to another solution.
Right now, Schoen looks like a total dolt for sticking with Jones for a sixth season.
I don't know about that, but I do think he leaned into the leadership thing a little too much. He mentioned it at the Combine and again at MetLife. You can't go into a locker room and automatically be a leader, you have to earn that.
I wonder if NYG thought he might be too much locker room lawyer. And I like Odunze, but I think the heavy focus on being a leader might have hurt him a bit, although I think the preference for Nabers and Harrison was purely based on their styles of play.
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This is a shitty thing to say, but I think Odunze is soft, and the Giants dinged him for that.
I don't know about that, but I do think he leaned into the leadership thing a little too much. He mentioned it at the Combine and again at MetLife. You can't go into a locker room and automatically be a leader, you have to earn that.
I wonder if NYG thought he might be too much locker room lawyer. And I like Odunze, but I think the heavy focus on being a leader might have hurt him a bit, although I think the preference for Nabers and Harrison was purely based on their styles of play.
It's ok for the WR to be a dawg (🤮), but the QB has to be John Glenn.
I hope a lot of what we've seen on HK has been scripted.
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In comment 16558417 JonC said:
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can't force another AB at #6, especially when a HoF talent at a position of extreme need had grabbed their souls.
That sounds familiar, like 2018.
At least they got the QB evals correct in 2018.
Did they? Two names...Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson.
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it doesnt matter how much $ daboll has in the bank right now, either he is that guy who will force the issue when he has a conviction or he isnt. this isnt just a sean payton thing either, kyle shannahan, pete carroll, sean mcvay, lafleur, have all had to lead similar difficult decisions. head coaches lead or they get fired.
I think you're describing how you would prefer things to operate. I am describing how -- with the aid of potentially the most transparent contemporary evidence afforded fans to a front office ever -- I believe they appear to be.
Schoen is a big part of the decision matrix, and the Giants need him to be a good at it.
we've seen transparent evidence both ways, and i would argue we've seen more evidence the way i am describing. neither of us knows how much additional evidence we didnt see other than it being likely we only saw a tip of the iceberg. whoever got 90% of the screentime was going to seem like the one in control and by his own design daboll didnt want that to be him.
we saw discussions re the importance of strength of "conviction" across multiple internal discussions. the coaches were asked point blank to convey their conviction in the QBs they were considering move up for. the WR that daboll was most enthused about from the combine episode is the guy they ended up targeting/picking at #6, not the one Schoen was portrayed initially to seem more enthused by prior to hearing from daboll. schoen's first walk over to the NE box in Indy appeared to be right after the daboll led interviews of the Qbs.
how strong the convictions actually/specifically were from whomever is an unknown but it doesnt matter. the results are going to be owned by the head coach first and foremost because that is how the NFL works - they get paid the most and fired fastest. get the decision right and you have a 9 figure successful career that spans the next couple decades. 2nd prize in failure is a public flogging and the high point of your future reputation being a leak to the post that "if it were up to me i'd have traded up for drake maye".
Get OL fixed.....and it sure seems like they are not just going to hope for the young guys to develop. They have options.
Could be just editing.....but the top 4 picks were all identified as targets.....so it comes across as a very solid draft.
I don't think Jones needs to be "pushed", I think even his biggest detractors will acknowledge that he works hard. The question is, have we already seen the best of him, or can he up his game?
The only reason picking the wrong QB would set a team back 5-7 years is if you refuse to acknowledge the mistake and keep trying to justify the pick. Sound familiar?
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In comment 16558438 Go Terps said:
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In comment 16558417 JonC said:
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can't force another AB at #6, especially when a HoF talent at a position of extreme need had grabbed their souls.
That sounds familiar, like 2018.
At least they got the QB evals correct in 2018.
Did they? Two names...Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson.
Those don't bother me, both had significant warts in their games and carried significant risks. NYG did well to avoid the top consensus QBs in a draft where they were wicked overhyped.
Because us rooting has zero impact on whether they win or lose.
I think you're describing how you would prefer things to operate. I am describing how -- with the aid of potentially the most transparent contemporary evidence afforded fans to a front office ever -- I believe they appear to be.
Schoen is a big part of the decision matrix, and the Giants need him to be a good at it.
we've seen transparent evidence both ways, and i would argue we've seen more evidence the way i am describing. neither of us knows how much additional evidence we didnt see other than it being likely we only saw a tip of the iceberg. whoever got 90% of the screentime was going to seem like the one in control and by his own design daboll didnt want that to be him.
Based on at least the ~20 years John Mara has been CEO the effective hierarchy of the Giants has been Mara > GM > Head Coach.
Going back to Accorsi, every GM has survived a coaching firing, and arguably actually fired the coach.
So up against the historical precedent, the way they both have presented themselves publicly over the last 3 years, and the way the sneak peak into the front office has framed it -- I'm pretty comfortable assuming the power dynamic between Schoen and Daboll is pretty evenly divided.
I think Schoen absolutely defers to Daboll when it comes to stack ranking players, but it's pretty obvious when it comes to which combination of players they can and do acquire is largely up to Schoen.
And just to revisit my initial comment, Daboll is demonstrably pretty good at the quarterback thing. The Giants need Schoen to be too.
That scene felt exactly like when he pulled up the Tennessee defensive stats.
I put more prep into my BBI threads than Daboll is doing for the cameras.
Exactly this. I think many are overreacting to clearly restaged scenes. And while I'm happy to see that Mara SEEMS to be allowing Schoen to call the shots, all of his scenes were obvious reshoots. Which means we don't know how things went off off-screen.
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In comment 16558499 Go Terps said:
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In comment 16558460 The Mike said:
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
I despise Gettleman for the destruction he oversaw. However, the one smart thing he said is that picking the wrong QB will set back a franchise 5 years. Sadly for us, that was a self fulfilling prophecy. With that said, the Giants clearly did not view McCarthy, Penix or Nix worth a top 10 pick. If DJ sucks as expected, the record will suck as well and the Giants will once again be picking high next year and moving on from DJ. One should presume they view the QB’s coming out next year more favorably then those 3.
Drafting the wrong QB doesn't set you back 5 years. Sticking to him does. Watching Mara say a potential test would give him heart palpitations was infuriating. Why? He can't be fired, the team stinks, and he doesn't have a QB! From Mara's perspective what is there to lose by trading up to get a QB?
Watching this show is like watching a car spin its wheels in quicksand.
The point is you have to give any QB at least 3 years and if he is a bust, then you are back to square one which could result in 1or 2 more years before the new guy produces.
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I despise Gettleman for the destruction he oversaw. However, the one smart thing he said is that picking the wrong QB will set back a franchise 5 years. Sadly for us, that was a self fulfilling prophecy.
Too many on this board have this phobia of missing out on a high pick for QB.
But missing on the pick is actually fine IF you pivot quickly enough to move on to another solution.
Right now, Schoen looks like a total dolt for sticking with Jones for a sixth season.
Define quickly. They are high first round picks, you can’t move on after 2 years?
Define quickly. They are high first round picks, you can’t move on after 2 years?
Why not? The Giants are the test case for why you CAN move on after two years.
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Define quickly. They are high first round picks, you can’t move on after 2 years?
Why not? The Giants are the test case for why you CAN move on after two years.
Sure. That strategy has worked well with Head Coaches so why wouldn’t it work well with a QB? Don’t pick a QB just to pick a QB. And certainly don’t mortgage the future to move up for a QB that you don’t feel strongly about.
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In comment 16558762 Bernie said:
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Define quickly. They are high first round picks, you can’t move on after 2 years?
Why not? The Giants are the test case for why you CAN move on after two years.
Sure. That strategy has worked well with Head Coaches so why wouldn’t it work well with a QB? Don’t pick a QB just to pick a QB. And certainly don’t mortgage the future to move up for a QB that you don’t feel strongly about.
So full bloom love.
Why didn't we just keep Gettleman as GM, then?
It was just whether or not that QB is still with the team that drafted them.
And the point of the exercise was to show if you are going to put the resources - especially a high first round pick + the cost of a trade up- you better get it right or be screwed. Hence Daboll saying “take a Stroud” followed by someone saying or Josh (Allen)
Baffling people couldn’t comprehend that or just didnt fit their narrative that the Giants want to stick with Daniel Jones when every other piece of evidence shows they tried to trade up.
So full bloom love.
Why didn't we just keep Gettleman as GM, then?
I mean, yes, if you're going to have to trade multiple high draft picks to move up for a QB, you better damn well be in full bloom love with a QB. And if you're spending a high draft pick on a QB, you should have a conviction that they will be better than what you have already, especially when you're in position to draft a blue chip prospect at another position of need.
It's apparent that Schoen and co want to move on, couldn't work out a trand, and don't seem to think the three QBs you're harping on will be better than Jones while you do. That's fine. Maybe you're right. Maybe Schoen is wrong. But I think I'll probably hedge on the side of the guys who actually do this for a living and not the dude frothing at the mouth on his couch with a track record of being in full bloom love with the likes of Willis, Pickett, and Corral. Call me crazy.
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In comment 16558449 UberAlias said:
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2019.
This ^
But they're still in the 2019 mistake, and not trying to pull out of it.
A) Not eat giant dead cap on jones, while getting better at biggest need skill position, something they falt they had to do anyway. That may be intentional if they already know they plan to replace jones next year, either by free agency or the draft, and they didn't give away capital to do it, or try to do it in a year when they were already short on draft capital do to previous trades. You don't know what his plan is at QB. Your guessing he has none, I doubt that is the case.