Man, outside of 2020 there has not been much QB talent coming out in the draft the last few years.
2019: was terrible outside of maybe Murray.
2020: was solid with Herbert, Tua, Burrow, Love, Hurts.
2021: Lawrence only decent QB
2022: Awful outside of Purdy
2023: Stroud looks good, jury still out on Young, Richardson, and Levis.
2024: TBD
Point being, it’s clearly no slam dunk finding a QB no matter how high you are picking. Let’s hope the 2025 draft is similar to 2020.
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Pitt, Las Vegas, Tennessee, Carolina, New Orleans, Arizona, NYJ, NYG, and maybe Tampa and Seattle are the only teams who I think would privately express any doubt.
You haven't followed any coherent method to show that there is anything notably different about the time period in question compared to some other time period.
Five successful QBs from 2020 isn't meaningless just because it happened in one year.
And having only one (or even zero) successful QBs in a year isn't that unusual; one could find many such examples in previous time periods.
And drafting a QB on round one isn't the only path to quarterback Nirvana. You just have to try a little harder than Drew Lock.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The lesson is not to reach. Take the best player. Must be hard to go through life dumb as fuck
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Not to try, because you'll probably fail.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The lesson is don't give up multiple premium picks over multiple years when your roster sucks. I like what they did this year. The roster is much improved. A new QB that comes in now will have a better chance of succeeding with a top notch AR and an OL and OL coach.
This.
Ultimately this what the Rams traded for Stafford. And they'd do it again in an instant.
QB Jared Goff
CB Ifeatu Melifonwu (2021 3rd-round pick)
WR Jameson Williams (2022 1st-round pick)
DL Josh Paschal (2022 2nd-round pick)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs (2023 1st-round pick)
TE Sam LaPorta (2023 2nd-round pick)
DT Brodric Martin (2023 3rd-round pick)
So don’t hold your breath!
The lesson is not to reach. Take the best player. Must be hard to go through life dumb as fuck
Yeah, like it's easier to identify and draft the "best" player.
It's hard to draft w/any philosophy: BPA, need, avoiding a reach, etc.
So don’t hold your breath!
Since Mahomes was drafted, of course.
How'd that work out?
Bills are pretty happy they traded multiple picks and assets to get to Josh Allen.
There is no one answer.
The gods do not smile on the Giants. It's the opposite of being right when you're wrong.
Gettleman leaves the Giants an extra top 7 pick, they need a starting QB, and their literally isn't one in the draft.
Some teams have never had a special QB. Hopefully Giants find a very good one and have a much better team around him next time. Biggest failure of the Giants the last 45 years was the FO wasting the last 6-7 years of Eli's career. Makes the last few years worse.
How'd that work out?
Bills are pretty happy they traded multiple picks and assets to get to Josh Allen.
There is no one answer.
I *think* the answer is quarterback is by design the most important position in North American sports, and fills the cup more than any other position.
Good quarterback + average team > Good team + average quarterback. No?
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Has won a Super Bowl since Mahomes. If the prize is to appear in a Super Bowl, only Mahomes, Hurts and Purdy (doesn’t count) have appeared in a Super Bowl on a rookie contract.
So don’t hold your breath!
___________
Since Mahomes was drafted, of course.
Come on, Ivan. lol.
Mahomes was only drafted in 2017. And as you mention he did win a SB on his rookie deal. He's won 3 of them of the 7 possible Super Bowls since he was drafted and Brady won 2. There was only 2 QB's in the "Mahomes era" to win a SB that wasn't Mahomes or Brady. it was Stafford and Foles. Foles may not have been on a rookie deal, but his cap hit was $1.6M so it was probably better than a rookie deal and their other QB, Carson Wentz was on his rookie deal.
However prior to Mahomes, Eli, Ben, Wilson, Brady, Flacco, all won Super Bowls on rookie deals. Your premise is disingenuous.
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was the justification for the pick.
How'd that work out?
Bills are pretty happy they traded multiple picks and assets to get to Josh Allen.
There is no one answer.
I *think* the answer is quarterback is by design the most important position in North American sports, and fills the cup more than any other position.
Good quarterback + average team > Good team + average quarterback. No?
I generally agree with that. Lean toward gambling on the QB if you need one.
But there's no crystal ball to tell you whether, in any given situation, you're crossing the line of making an inappropriate "reach". Some people thought Giants should have gone for Malik Willis, because that class didn't have much else. That would have been a mistake and I happened to say so at the time, even though I very much wanted a different QB for NYG.
The most obvious successes are Mahomes, Allen, and L. Jackson, although as the attached article notes, Baltimore passed on Jackson twice before trading up to #32 to take him. Beane also said that if Allen wasn't available he would have taken Josh Rosen, which of course be on the list of worst, not best, trade ups for a QB.
Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are somewhere in the middle.
I am now convinced that the best (or least bad) way to get a QB is as follows:
(1) Take a QB at your pick. That doesn't of course guarantee success. See Rosen, Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel, and a host of other examples, but at least you haven't given up several drafts of high round picks to get one. I'm fine with Nabers, but would have taken JJM instead.
(2) Take a QB every few years in the second or third round until you get lucky and find a franchise QB.
Link - ( New Window )
The most obvious successes are Mahomes, Allen, and L. Jackson, although as the attached article notes, Baltimore passed on Jackson twice before trading up to #32 to take him. Beane also said that if Allen wasn't available he would have taken Josh Rosen, which of course be on the list of worst, not best, trade ups for a QB.
Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are somewhere in the middle.
I am now convinced that the best (or least bad) way to get a QB is as follows:
(1) Take a QB at your pick. That doesn't of course guarantee success. See Rosen, Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel, and a host of other examples, but at least you haven't given up several drafts of high round picks to get one. I'm fine with Nabers, but would have taken JJM instead.
(2) Take a QB every few years in the second or third round until you get lucky and find a franchise QB. Link - ( New Window )
Good plan. Unless there is some amazing QB prospect that you will give up picks for it doesn’t make sense. For every Eli there is a Mitch Trubisky. Even Lawrence was regarded as this can’t miss prospect. He hasn’t lived up to that yet.
And yet the analytic issue would be the same.
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In comment 16592394 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
Has won a Super Bowl since Mahomes. If the prize is to appear in a Super Bowl, only Mahomes, Hurts and Purdy (doesn’t count) have appeared in a Super Bowl on a rookie contract.
So don’t hold your breath!
___________
Since Mahomes was drafted, of course.
Come on, Ivan. lol.
Mahomes was only drafted in 2017. And as you mention he did win a SB on his rookie deal. He's won 3 of them of the 7 possible Super Bowls since he was drafted and Brady won 2. There was only 2 QB's in the "Mahomes era" to win a SB that wasn't Mahomes or Brady. it was Stafford and Foles. Foles may not have been on a rookie deal, but his cap hit was $1.6M so it was probably better than a rookie deal and their other QB, Carson Wentz was on his rookie deal.
However prior to Mahomes, Eli, Ben, Wilson, Brady, Flacco, all won Super Bowls on rookie deals. Your premise is disingenuous.
Wilson, Brady, and Flacco were all on elite teams with only Baltimore needing to use a (mid) 1st round pick.
For fans: Most quarterbacks bust or disappoint. Don’t freak out about it, don’t conclude your GM is an idiot. Don’t post lists of all the better guys drafted later.Just accept it as part of football. It’s painful but that’s how the game works.
Sometimes you get Peyton Manning, sometimes you get Ryan Leaf. If you get Ryan Leaf, get Drew Brees. When Brees leaves, find Philip Rivers, when Rivers moves on, find Justin Herbert.
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Not to try, because you'll probably fail.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The point is it’s tough to find a QB. I think a lot of posters (myself included) are excited about drafting one next year. I guess I didn’t realize how bad the success rate for drafted QB’s has been in recent years. I mean it makes sense when you think about how much the college game has changed. Same reason offensive line quality has faded.
How'd that work out?
Bills are pretty happy they traded multiple picks and assets to get to Josh Allen.
There is no one answer.
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In comment 16592406 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
In comment 16592394 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
Has won a Super Bowl since Mahomes. If the prize is to appear in a Super Bowl, only Mahomes, Hurts and Purdy (doesn’t count) have appeared in a Super Bowl on a rookie contract.
So don’t hold your breath!
___________
Since Mahomes was drafted, of course.
Come on, Ivan. lol.
Mahomes was only drafted in 2017. And as you mention he did win a SB on his rookie deal. He's won 3 of them of the 7 possible Super Bowls since he was drafted and Brady won 2. There was only 2 QB's in the "Mahomes era" to win a SB that wasn't Mahomes or Brady. it was Stafford and Foles. Foles may not have been on a rookie deal, but his cap hit was $1.6M so it was probably better than a rookie deal and their other QB, Carson Wentz was on his rookie deal.
However prior to Mahomes, Eli, Ben, Wilson, Brady, Flacco, all won Super Bowls on rookie deals. Your premise is disingenuous.
Despite being on a rookie contract, Eli was one of the highest paid QBs as was Ben (each eating up nearly 10% of their teams’ cap space during the SB seasons). The point of the rookie deal QB allowing teams to build a great roster is a recent, new CBA, development.
Wilson, Brady, and Flacco were all on elite teams with only Baltimore needing to use a (mid) 1st round pick.
so move the goalposts?
and the 2001 Patriots were "an elite team"? lol, ok.
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In comment 16592436 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 16592406 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
In comment 16592394 Ivan15 said:
Quote:
Has won a Super Bowl since Mahomes. If the prize is to appear in a Super Bowl, only Mahomes, Hurts and Purdy (doesn’t count) have appeared in a Super Bowl on a rookie contract.
So don’t hold your breath!
___________
Since Mahomes was drafted, of course.
Come on, Ivan. lol.
Mahomes was only drafted in 2017. And as you mention he did win a SB on his rookie deal. He's won 3 of them of the 7 possible Super Bowls since he was drafted and Brady won 2. There was only 2 QB's in the "Mahomes era" to win a SB that wasn't Mahomes or Brady. it was Stafford and Foles. Foles may not have been on a rookie deal, but his cap hit was $1.6M so it was probably better than a rookie deal and their other QB, Carson Wentz was on his rookie deal.
However prior to Mahomes, Eli, Ben, Wilson, Brady, Flacco, all won Super Bowls on rookie deals. Your premise is disingenuous.
Despite being on a rookie contract, Eli was one of the highest paid QBs as was Ben (each eating up nearly 10% of their teams’ cap space during the SB seasons). The point of the rookie deal QB allowing teams to build a great roster is a recent, new CBA, development.
Wilson, Brady, and Flacco were all on elite teams with only Baltimore needing to use a (mid) 1st round pick.
so move the goalposts?
and the 2001 Patriots were "an elite team"? lol, ok.
Point being a lot more than a QB is needed to be a SB contender. I’m not going to overlook the obvious: QB is far and away the most important player on the team but a good situation is critical for all but a few QBs in the history of the NFL.
…and I believe you moved the goalposts first to the pre-Mahomes era :-P
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Not to try, because you'll probably fail.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The point is it’s tough to find a QB. I think a lot of posters (myself included) are excited about drafting one next year. I guess I didn’t realize how bad the success rate for drafted QB’s has been in recent years. I mean it makes sense when you think about how much the college game has changed. Same reason offensive line quality has faded.
And this is why Nabers was the correct choice this year...
Quote:
Not to try, because you'll probably fail.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The lesson is not to reach. Take the best player. Must be hard to go through life dumb as fuck
Mahomes wasn't the best prospect available when he was drafted. Nor was Josh Allen. Nor was pretty much any QB drafted in recent years except maybe Lawrence and Burrow, and even Burrow is questionable with how good Chase Young was as a prospect
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Not to try, because you'll probably fail.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The lesson is not to reach. Take the best player. Must be hard to go through life dumb as fuck
Be civil next time, fuckface.
Quote:
Not to try, because you'll probably fail.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The lesson is not to reach. Take the best player. Must be hard to go through life dumb as fuck
Yeah just garb the best guy, like Evan Neal. Duh!!! Everyone knows who the bets players are.
Another entry in the log of why NYG fans are no brighter than any other random fan base.
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Not to try, because you'll probably fail.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The lesson is not to reach. Take the best player. Must be hard to go through life dumb as fuck
Yes, always take the best player.
Don't worry that you have 18 WRs and 22 CBs and no Centers, QBs or LBs. Things will work out.
We have established that finding another Mahommes or Brady is unlikely and you will probably fail trying.
You can also look at top QBs in history who did not have the RIGHT pieces around them (or coaching), and they could not lift the Lombardi trophy. Stafford is a perfect example. It is not like he magically got better once he went to the Rams. There were other factors. In fact, the Lions did not come anywhere hear a championship with Stafford.
We would LOVE to have him as our QB, but we are not winning a championship even with him at this point.
You can also look back at average to subpar QBs who are superbowl winners. Hostetler is one of them.
So what you hope for first is that Daniel Jones flourishes this year and shows enough to make you believe he can be the SB capable guy. Odds are 1 in 100 based on his resume to date!!!! But 25 other teams have similar issues too, give or take.... IMHO.
So if we finish 8 - 9 and out of the playoffs I think we have to look at why and gut this team by starting with a new QB. You can't keep Jones even if he wasn't the main reason for only 8 or less wins.
If Jones is the reason you got 9 wins and a playoff spot due to his solid play well then you look at the draft and if your QB guy is there in the 20's you draft him and have him play behind Jones for a year.
Devito, Lock ain't the answer!
Jones likely isn't the answer...
So you pray the football gods are kind to the Giants draft or we see a gem in the rough.
I firmly believe if Nabers as a rookie dominates where he demands double coverage else he is getting deep it opens things up like he had with OBJ his rookie year.
So lets hope Nabers, Robinson (slot), Thomas, Runyan, Jones all have "probowl caliber" type years and stay healthy doing it!! There is serious speed on offense which is why we will go long ball with a healthy veteran OL.
One key guy is Bellinger and how much he develops as a #1 TE until Johnson is ready perhaps later in the year. I love Johnson's body for the redzone.
Simply put, will Jones be able to get the deep ball off AND utilize the underneath effectively when its not there? You have to hope as a fan he excels.
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In comment 16592362 Blueworm said:
Quote:
Not to try, because you'll probably fail.
What is your point, exactly?
Unless this guy does things he has never done before in five years, the GM has to try and preserve his job by elevating the win ceiling.
The point is it’s tough to find a QB. I think a lot of posters (myself included) are excited about drafting one next year. I guess I didn’t realize how bad the success rate for drafted QB’s has been in recent years. I mean it makes sense when you think about how much the college game has changed. Same reason offensive line quality has faded.
With most of the qb's failing why are you excited to draft one next year?
Because when your QB also fails, repeatedly, don't just be an idiot and let him keep failing, identify your next best shot and take it.
It is actually the opposite. Because it is so hard you need to take many shots.
Do you guys also just marry the first girl who agrees to go on a date with you since finding “the one” is really hard and the girl right in front of you might be ok if she just fixes a few things about herself?
When something is difficult, but important, you keep trying to get it right, not settle for whatever is in front of you at the moment to hedge the unknown.
So what you hope for first is that Daniel Jones flourishes this year and shows enough to make you believe he can be the SB capable guy. Odds are 1 in 100 based on his resume to date!!!! But 25 other teams have similar issues too, give or take.... IMHO.
This thinking makes me want to puke.
No offense.
So what you hope for first is that Daniel Jones flourishes this year and shows enough to make you believe he can be the SB capable guy. Odds are 1 in 100 based on his resume to date!!!! But 25 other teams have similar issues too, give or take.... IMHO.
Simply put, will Jones be able to get the deep ball off AND utilize the underneath effectively when it’s not there? You have to hope as a fan he excels.
This is the absolute worst way to think about this. Take an oft-injured QB who has been no more than mediocre when healthy across 5 years, and pray for an outlier season from him so we can commit to him long term?
What you are suggesting is that, as a fan, what we need to hope for is false hope. Don’t get a good QB, hope a bad one simply becomes a good.
Hope for this year is fine - I hope Jones has a fantastic year. But when this season is done the Giants need to move on from him, not make future decisions that rely on outlier data sets repeating themselves. 2024 should not be a make or break year for Jones - that decision should be made already.
QBs retain their value more than any other asset, and they need to show relatively little to improve their value significantly.
The self-imposed fallacy of the "franchise QB" makes teams do dumb things.
QBs retain their value more than any other asset, and they need to show relatively little to improve their value significantly.
The self-imposed fallacy of the "franchise QB" makes teams do dumb things.
I’m not opposed to this strategy at all at this point.
If you want Daniel Jones to suddenly morph into Phil Simms, why skip the part in Simms’ development where he had to fight for the job? This has unquestionably been Jones’ job since the day he was drafted and then first put into the lineup. He’s never had a day of competition for it in the NFL.
It is if you use measure it using the scale of “the TDs were the result of Daniel Jones’ talent, and the turnovers were the fault of the offensive line and WRs.”