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The Mystery of Daniel Jones - long

mfjmfj : 9/12/2024 10:35 am
I know - another stupid DJ thread. To me, it is shocking how bad DJ is at this point in his career, given his underlying traits. Why is he this bad?

There are certain physical things you need in an NFL QB - size, arm, hopefully legs. DJ has those. Not a great arm, but certainly good enough.

There are certain character traits you need in an NFL QB - smart, willing to work hard, emotionally able, coachable. DJ has those.

So what went wrong. The most common answer we get is processing speed, but this is a trainable trait. The human brain is designed to improve its pattern matching with practice in a specific task. Yet DJ is worse at processing now than he was in his rookie year (in my opinion).

In the end, I think his problem is a personality one. I know someone who is a great athlete. Would have played D1 except for injury, and I think would have had a shot at the league if he wanted it. But from the time he was a little kid, he lacked something, psychologically, that seems to me key in great athletes. He could not bear losing, and so if he was behind, he would just give up. Don't think he is that way in life now, but it was why he couldn't pitch - great arm, great size, good control. But frustrate him and he would go off the rails. Coaches would see him in practice and couldn't wait to get him on the mound. Risk of failure shows up and inst-collapse.

I think DJ is somewhat similar. He is hyper coachable (thus the love he receives). But part of that is a fear of failure that is so high that it leads to failure. The truly great QBs can't imagine themselves failing. Look at some of the gun slinging throws that Eli or Favre made. Especially the ones that worked. Including Eli's iconic throw in the SB. DJ could make those throws. But he never would. He would take the sack, or throw it away, or make a stupid lower risk throw that works out even worse. And then those traits got enhanced by the Garrett offense.

Often college football provides an obvious test for this personality trait. But Duke did not. Since they were never really expected to win, it was easy to say DJ played great even though the team lost (a familiar refrain). You need a QB with a killer instinct who is fearless. Then you need to harness not suppress those traits. Here is hoping we get that.
Another trait I see in some very smart people is the  
PatersonPlank : 9/12/2024 10:50 am : link
"inability to make a quick decision" (I don't know how to else to say this). They just keep over-analyzing everything but never pull the trigger. I've found that getting the data and making a decision, rather than just continue going over it again and again "just to be sure", can become a key thing to moving ahead in a career.

I have always wondered if DJ is of this type. He sees it but doesn't pull the trigger, perhaps he would be better suited as an accountant?
Occam's Razor  
rsjem1979 : 9/12/2024 10:50 am : link
His physical traits are overrated, his processing ability is limited, and his instincts are lacking.

RE: Occam's Razor  
JonC : 9/12/2024 10:52 am : link
In comment 16606519 rsjem1979 said:
Quote:
His physical traits are overrated, his processing ability is limited, and his instincts are lacking.


Ding. Done. There's no mystery, it's been there to see since his Dook days.
I don't see the mystery  
SirLoinOfBeef : 9/12/2024 10:53 am : link
at all.

Jones is who he's always been. A terrible and QB desperate GM selected him at 6th overall because he fell in love with him.

There's plenty of college QBs just like Jones. They just never make it the NFL.
it's a Mystery to me why you all complicate things  
Red Right Hand : 9/12/2024 10:59 am : link
and can't accept the simple fact he's cockeyed.

Brain takes extra energy to adjust to cocked eyes, thus leaving less power for processing. This isn't rocket science.
At Duke  
Costy16 : 9/12/2024 10:59 am : link
He was a first read QB, that is a very hard trait to break. To then get him to process his progressions if his first read is not there. He does not do that well, he panics. He also has happy feet in the pocket.
RE: Occam's Razor  
sb from NYT Forum : 9/12/2024 11:00 am : link
In comment 16606519 rsjem1979 said:
Quote:
His physical traits are overrated, his processing ability is limited, and his instincts are lacking.


This 100%. The guy’s agility and footwork are awful. And he is slow to understand what he is seeing. That’s always been the case.
You’re overstating his physical attributes,  
Section331 : 9/12/2024 11:04 am : link
and wildly overstating the mental ones too. His arm is OK, but bottom half of league starters. That’s OK, Joe Burrow doesn’t have a great arm either, and he’s a top 10 QB, but what Burrow has is a quick mind that can process through what defenses are showing him.

That is Jones’s greatest weakness, and ALWAYS HAS BEEN! Many want to point to his rookie year, but ignore a couple of salient facts -almost all of his production came against 3 teams which had 3 of the worst pass defenses of the past decade. They also ignore that Shurmur dumbed down the offense for Jones. That’s fine most coaches will do that with rookie QB’s and then add more complexity when the QB gets more comfortable.

And that’s when the problems came in. Jones couldn’t handle more complexity. He is slow to read post-snap changes in coverage, and that is lethal for NFL QB’s. Every DC knows to show him one thing pre-snap, and then change it at the snap. Daboll was able to get a productive season out of Jones by leveraging Barkley and Jones’s running ability to keep defenses guessing.

But that wasn’t sustainable, and Philly completely exploited in the playoffs. Spy on him, keep him in the pocket, and force him to make plays from the pocket. EVERY DC in the league saw that master class and copied it, and Jones has been reeling ever since.

Many will point to the neck injury v Miami, but I don’t buy it. He completely sucked before that. He played one good (OK, brilliant) half v AZ, but was otherwise unplayable. He’s been somehow worse since that Miami game, so the injury had some impact, but doesn’t change the fact that he was not a starting level QB, and hasn’t been since that playoff game in Minny.
Mystery  
ThomasG : 9/12/2024 11:12 am : link
as to why you think this is a mystery.
The only mystery  
HomerJones45 : 9/12/2024 11:13 am : link
is how a guy this mediocre was given a second contract and a 6th season with his original team. I am wracking my brain trying to think of another example, and I can't come up with one.
I disagree  
OlyWABigBlue : 9/12/2024 11:17 am : link
that processing speed and multivariate pattern recognition is trainable to the point of excellence in the human brain for the majority of people, perhaps it can be trained to a perfunctory level in most but there are just a few that truly excel.
RE: The only mystery  
penkap75 : 9/12/2024 11:23 am : link
In comment 16606536 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
is how a guy this mediocre was given a second contract and a 6th season with his original team. I am wracking my brain trying to think of another example, and I can't come up with one.


Josh Rosen was booted after 1 season. Yet the Giants keep doing the DJ thing over and over again expecting different results.
Yeah  
Jerry in_DC : 9/12/2024 11:25 am : link
This is why figuring out who will be a good NFL QB is really hard, maybe impossible.

All the little stuff that we shorthand as "processing" is essentially the definition of being a good QB. Pocket awareness, Pocket movement, pre and post snap reads, manipulating defenders, judging precisely how to throw a ball - it all happens in fractions of seconds.

Logs of guys have sufficient physical skills. Few of them have "processing". And it's hard to predict. Josh Allen did it. Justin Fields didn't. Joe Burrow has it. Sam Darnold doesn't (until last week). Dak Prescott has it (nobody saw that coming).

It's all a mystery until you see them play. People will be right about some guys and wrong about some guys. Fans, analysts, GMs, everyone. You just don't know.

Of course with Jones we did know a while ago, but kept and paid him anyway.
It is not a mystery  
The Mike : 9/12/2024 11:29 am : link
It was well understood when he was drafted - just read Sy's 2019 draft report. He has trouble seeing the field and is slow to process information. Nothing has changed. He simply beat bad teams his first year. And in his career, he has won only five games against winning teams.

It has always been an illusion with DJ because he has central casting physical talent and is a pillar of work ethic character. So he makes you want to believe that the problems are fixable - with better linemen, weapons or coaching. The bit of success that he had in 2022, and remember, he only won three games against winning teams that year (Ravens, Jaguars and Vikings), was due to Daboll's effective scheming, Barkley's playmaking ability and DJ's above average running capacity. Once the league figured out how to stop him after the Eagles playoff blueprint, it was game over.

Can he still beat bad teams? Of course. But that solves nothing except delaying the emancipation of this franchise from quarterback hell.
I think it's clear  
santacruzom : 9/12/2024 11:47 am : link
The dog ate his playbook.
I just don't think any of this  
Biteymax22 : 9/12/2024 11:48 am : link
is a mystery. There were some traits there that got him drafted, we saw flashes year one and got our hopes up, but there were always a lot of other things that were lacking.

For all the talk about how smart Daniel is, he doesn't seem to play football this way. Not only are his reads slow, but he has never seemed to be able to win the chess match at the line of scrimmage by moving people around to create match ups and beat the defense that way.

At this point of time its no longer worth discussing why, the reality is he isn't and shouldn't be a franchise QB, we need to move on.
There's no mystery  
Go Terps : 9/12/2024 11:56 am : link
It was clear as day in 2020 (at the absolute latest) that he wasn't going to be a good pro QB. If you didn't see it it's because you didn't want to.
RE: Occam's Razor  
56goat : 9/12/2024 12:17 pm : link
In comment 16606519 rsjem1979 said:
Quote:
His physical traits are overrated, his processing ability is limited, and his instincts are lacking.


Looks like Tarzan plays like Jane is over-used, but appropriate in this case.
RE: I just don't think any of this  
rsjem1979 : 9/12/2024 12:25 pm : link
In comment 16606558 Biteymax22 said:
Quote:
is a mystery. There were some traits there that got him drafted, we saw flashes year one and got our hopes up, but there were always a lot of other things that were lacking.

For all the talk about how smart Daniel is, he doesn't seem to play football this way. Not only are his reads slow, but he has never seemed to be able to win the chess match at the line of scrimmage by moving people around to create match ups and beat the defense that way.

At this point of time its no longer worth discussing why, the reality is he isn't and shouldn't be a franchise QB, we need to move on.


I'd suggest that the quest for a complicated answer stems from the desire of some to avoid admitting that they simply saw things in Jones that were never there.

People fell HARD for Jones during the TB game in 2019, and have been making excuses for him ever since.

Breaking up is hard to do.
George Young's Planet Theory also applies to QBs  
Ten Ton Hammer : 9/12/2024 1:00 pm : link
There are only so many people in the world that have all the needed traits and can play the position at the requisite level.

He doesnt. He frankly never did. The belief was that it could be trained into him.

Again, this isnt to kick him when he's down. When was he a good quarterback? It wasnt in college. He had moments as a rookie against bad teams, and he had moments in 2022.

Thats it.
For a calm guy, he is far from it  
Simms11 : 9/12/2024 1:04 pm : link
when getting pressured in live game settings. He just cannot respond properly when the plan changes on the fly due to defensive alignments, coverages, response and pressure. Post snap he's horrendous and I do not know what he's doing pre-snap to get the team into better situations. Can he even audible? Does JMS call out the blocking schemes? Not fully understanding how Dabs conducts offense. Anyway, there's QBs in the league, such as Mahomes, who can just play street ball and make something happen on the fly. Jones us very robotic in his game and maybe they should just take the reigns off. What can they lose at this point?!
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