When I think of the best run franchises in each conference I think of SF & BAL. I'm not including KC because Mahomes is a unicorn and Reid is the best coach in the NFL. Shanahan had turned that franchise around making the Super Bowl with both Garoppolo and Purdy. It looks like they found their QB in the 7th round. They didn't cling onto the mistake of Lance. The Ravens have been rock solid.
NYG leaned fully into Buffalo with Schoen & Daboll. I'm worried they plucked from a franchise that ultimately is entirely dependent on Josh Allen. Schoen loves referencing his Buffalo time and Josh Allen, he's squeezing every drip from Allen to capitalize his own career. While I like Daboll, what was he as an OC prior to Allen?
Is Buffalo even a well run franchise or is it Josh Allen mostly masking the flaws of the team?
I really want to like Schoen. I try to look for positives. But, his identity seems strictly positional value. Keep a clean cap and invest in premium positions. I kept hearing "cost controlled WR1" from him regarding the Nabers pick. I'd like to see more of an identity than positional value.
Is anyone else losing confidence in the Buffalo model?
The Bills aren't some masterfully well-run franchise. They hit on Allen and catapulted to contender status based off that. There's nothing wrong with that, of course, but I don't think it speaks as well on management/coaching as a team like the Ravens or Eagles.
I'd say the Bengals are sort of similar to the Bills in this regard.
For about 15 years the sport was ruled by Brady, Bress, Rodgers, Ben R., Manning and Manning as far as titles are concerned. As these guys started to fall off, names like Wilson, Stafford and then eventually Mahomes, Burrow and Allen stepped in.
There other commodities in the NFL that are valuable like a tremendous defense, which, in any given NFL year you'll likely always have 1 or 2 of those, or an expert offensive-mind like a Kyle Shannahan. These things can make you competitive or win you some big games here and there, but the QB will always be the thing to put you over the top.
But Jones just isn't close to Allen as a talent. Maybe a team like Indy with Richardson and his skill-set could try to replicate what Allen does, but it needs to be a special talent like that to get close to the actual Josh Allen imo.
We inherited the same what I like to call ‘Average Joe’ draft model and process. We target average talent during drafts, low ceiling, high floor. Tough, Smart & Dependable only works if you start with Talented as the first word in that phase. Otherwise, you just average players.
A GM needs to be able to draft well first and foremost, that success in the draft is why SF & BAL have been so successful. Any GM under consideration should be graded on their draft track history first and foremost.
getting shredded by sam motherfucking darnold week 1 at home in his first game with a new team gave me bettcher whiplash. i didnt think we could hit a lower point than the last ~10 years but if this defense with dex, okereke, burns, thibs, banks, etc cant stop sam darnold from looking like joe montana i shudder for what may unfold the rest of the season.
So in my opinion, it comes down to QB play anyway. SF got lucky with Purdy, but I think Shanahan would be lucky with 75% of QBs coming out of college.
But don't denigrate Buffalo, they are well run.
I agree that it would have been better to hire someone from the Ravens. Their draft record has been terrific.
JS has done almost the exact opposite of what his boss did in building the Bills.
but that miss wasnt as apparent before McDaniels, KOC, Ryans succeeded right away. Now it's pretty obvious.
I would deemphasize the so-called "skill position" players, WRs, TEs, and RBs.
I would take a QB in the first round if I needed one, but would be reluctant to trade up for one given that 50% bust. I would alternatively use a second or third round pick on a QB every few years to try and develop into a franchise QB.
His trades and FA signings somehow have been worse. Oher than Okereke, who has produced?
That's a hard model to replicate with a QB who is the exact opposite.
But they didn't buy their own success. They were willing to take a step back, to move forward.
If Schoen + Daboll don't do that over the next few weeks, see you later.
But they didn't buy their own success. They were willing to take a step back, to move forward.
If Schoen + Daboll don't do that over the next few weeks, see you later.
That's a great point, they didn't buy into their own success. That is how good organizations operate.
The Bills aren't some masterfully well-run franchise. They hit on Allen and catapulted to contender status based off that. There's nothing wrong with that, of course, but I don't think it speaks as well on management/coaching as a team like the Ravens or Eagles.
I'd say the Bengals are sort of similar to the Bills in this regard.
This was my thinking as well. I wanted all Ravens staff.
That's a hard model to replicate with a QB who is the exact opposite.
in buffalos first 3 years under mcdermott it was before they had a QB who solved those problems but they still had 2 playoff seasons.
so i saw the buffalo model as drafting well and building a really physical team, then eventually adding a franchise QB within that construct.
i dont know if smart/tough/dependable was something that came from buffalo, but i think that was in the right direction of what i was expecting we'd be seeing on sundays in year 3. mcdermott year 3 they were the 23rd offense and 2nd best defense in ppg.
i believe when wink was hired they made him 1 of the highest paid DCs in football, a daboll run team was probably always going to skew less toward defense than a mcdermott run team but they've put enough resource on defense (lawrence, burns, thibs, banks, okereke) it's an even more inexplicable failure than not finding a franchise qb (which is a much harder thing to accomplish).
Bills/Bengals Bills RB's: 11c/38y Bengals RB's: 27c/141y
Ravens remind me of the GY/BP Giants and then the first few years of the TC Giants.
Ozzie was Bill Belichick's first hire in Cleveland. Ravens have built that franchise on good/great D with good/great OL play as the foundation. Lot of outstanding LB's.......
But they didn't buy their own success. They were willing to take a step back, to move forward.
If Schoen + Daboll don't do that over the next few weeks, see you later.
looking at the numbers that's a misread. they were still 23rd in PPG in their 3rd year. yet that was their first year with a positive point differential which has since continued every season.
the material difference is they had one of the best defenses in football year 3, and have been top 4 in ppg allowed in 4 of the last 5 years from that season on.
allen's emergence the next season is what took them to SB contender in year 4+ being both a top offense and top defense, though obviously that was a process that began years earlier.
that model started with 5 years of alex smith, i think that's what they were trying to do they just failed at it.
That's a hard model to replicate with a QB who is the exact opposite.
I'd rather a QB that could put up air yard like Allen.
I'd rather a QB that could put up air yard like Allen.
I'd love to have a QB who could put yards on the ground like Allen too.
For about 15 years the sport was ruled by Brady, Bress, Rodgers, Ben R., Manning and Manning as far as titles are concerned. As these guys started to fall off, names like Wilson, Stafford and then eventually Mahomes, Burrow and Allen stepped in.
There other commodities in the NFL that are valuable like a tremendous defense, which, in any given NFL year you'll likely always have 1 or 2 of those, or an expert offensive-mind like a Kyle Shannahan. These things can make you competitive or win you some big games here and there, but the QB will always be the thing to put you over the top.
This is where I am at as well. Maybe its not a round 1 guy, but if you don't have a top tier qb it's hard to replicate success year after year. I am not speaking about winning a conference championship or super bowl every year, more along the lines of getting at bats in the playoffs all the time.
The 49ers were largely able to successful in this period of the NFC because there hasn't really been any dominate qbs in the league save Rodgers. Even the years they faced a really good Stafford and Hurts they could not overcome.
I do not believe the Giants mistake was adopting a particular operating model, I believe the mistake was not taking any swings at QB since 2019.
You can talk about Shanahan as an offensive genius, which I think he is, but even with a SB apperance 3 of his first 4 seasons were losing ones. He won 5 less games than Brian Daboll over his first two and that's with Garoppolo at QB who, at the time, was a better QB than Jones is now.
Looking at the Ravens, in 2018 I remember talk about Harbaugh getting fired at year end until they inserted Jackson in the game over Flacco and caught fire.
Throw a competent QB on this team and all the narratives around Schoen and Daboll disappear.
I pulled this information for another discussion. Over the last 6 seasons (the original debate was how teams performed since Gettleman was hired) -- the average pass offense ranking for a team that reached a championship game was 9th.
And 17 of 24 championship game participants had a top pass offense.
They rushed the ball 28 times for 19 first downs and 2 touchdowns, 5.3 YPR.
They passed the ball 45 times (31/45) for 28 first downs and 11 touchdowns, 6 YP/A.
Statistically they were far better off throwing the ball in those scenarios.
Where you in football utopia when Switzer was running the wishbone for the Sooners in the 70s?
The same guy who said this:
3rd and 3 is a tough situation. Most often you are going to go to your best back with your best running play and you are not going to fool anybody at that point. You are going to depend heavily on that running back to get the extra yard or two with his ability, figuring that the block for the first two yards of it. 3rd and 3 to us may mean a pass in our style of football. We may throw 3 to 1 over running the ball because of some of the defenses we face.
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that model started with 5 years of alex smith, i think that's what they were trying to do they just failed at it.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XlEwnGs2CgA
Giants have been working on fixing that issue for over a decade.
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In comment 16606784 Cyrus the Great said:
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that model started with 5 years of alex smith, i think that's what they were trying to do they just failed at it.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XlEwnGs2CgA
a couple weeks after that clip was uploaded in april 2022 they declined jones 5yo.
they signed jones 1 year after that clip. at that time, guess how many more playoff wins alex smith had in his full 5 years in KC compared to jones?
For the sake of intellectual clarity, your view is teams must be able to run the ball well on 3 and short?
If that's the case, how would you define well?
1986 NYG/Niners SF 20c/29 yards. 1990 NYG/Niners SF 11c/39 yard 2007 Pat/Giants SB Pats 16c/45y/2.8 Even in '11
Played out in last years SB and the year before. Happens just about every playoff season unless you get really lucky.
Many Giants losses under Daboll the running game has been a big issue (especially the RB's). Not enough carries or a good enough ypc. Beane has been working to correct it and they made big strides last season.
Running the ball better got them to the exact same place. At home during championship game weekend.
The 2023 Bills are a terrible example. They out rushed the Chiefs by nearly 40 yards in the division game loss.
As an aside, I hope Buffalo wins it all with Allen. He seems like a good dude & that team deserves a Lombardi. I know some hate their fans, but I don't live in the Buffalo area & I don't know one Bills fan so I have nothing against them.
Any who has played QB even for a year would understand the value of the run game. Anyone with half a brain who never played a down would understand this simple concept.
SFG, I agree. Tough as nails. I hope that team crosses the finish line. Very loyal and great fans.
As an aside, I hope Buffalo wins it all with Allen. He seems like a good dude & that team deserves a Lombardi. I know some hate their fans, but I don't live in the Buffalo area & I don't know one Bills fan so I have nothing against them.
go look at what they'd done before josh allen had his first year throwing for more than 3k yards (which was his 3rd year in 2020).
3 years in before josh allen had a season above 58% completions they were a winning team.
My point is the Bills dramatically improved their run game in the playoffs and the results were exactly the same. The 2023 Bills are not an example of the better running team advancing in the playoffs.
But back to you Walsh and 3rd and short observation.
How would you define running the ball well on 3rd and short?
Nice having a team that knows it has two downs to convert if needed.
Eagles/Giants playoff game. First drive down to the Eagles side of the field. 3rd and 2. Pass play. Penalty Neal. 4th and 7 failed pass play.
Air Daboll.
What would you define as a high percentage?
Last year going after an over-the-hill TE. Last year could have done much better with OL Depth when it was known after 2022 the OL was stil bad despite the success of the team.
If you don't have a good QB then your OL has to be at least good. It is highly probable that Josh has affected their perceptions.
1986 NYG/Niners SF 20c/29 yards. 1990 NYG/Niners SF 11c/39 yard 2007 Pat/Giants SB Pats 16c/45y/2.8 Even in '11
Played out in last years SB and the year before. Happens just about every playoff season unless you get really lucky.
Many Giants losses under Daboll the running game has been a big issue (especially the RB's). Not enough carries or a good enough ypc. Beane has been working to correct it and they made big strides last season.
I can't entertain talks about the Giants offense when for the past 3 years it's been like trying to cook a dinner without electricity.
Nothing works without an offensive line or a functional QB. It just doesn't seem like a good use of time. 'He passed when he should have run' just doesn't move the needle for me. They couldn't consistently run the ball with what you can conservatively say was the 5th or 6th most talented RB in the sport. At that point picking playcall tendencies is like saying the steak is overdone when the house is on fire.
The last two regimes have put a lot of resources in the OL. The problem has been picking the right players and the developmental side.
- not thinking seriously of life after Eli starts declining
- hiring Gettleman
- wasting a #2 overall pick on a RB
- panicking for a QB and drafting Daniel Jones
- not moving on from Jones after years 2,3,4,5, and 6
The final salt in the wound was Schoen screwing up the offseason after 2022 with the poor evaluation of team, and contract negotiations of Jones and Saquon.
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Too little emphasis on The Trenches. The 2nd rd draft pick and 3rd rounder this year are examples.
The last two regimes have put a lot of resources in the OL. The problem has been picking the right players and the developmental side.
The addtional problem is not realizing that you haven't fixed ythe OL and as Harbaugh says it's teh tip of teh spear.
If you are going to be led by Jones or a even rookie QB's - you need a strong OL as an example. If you make a few bad draft pciks or FA signings that doesn't mean you should stop the next year. Fix the OL. Fix the OL. Fix the OL. Van Roten should not be here as a starter. Settling for mediocrity without a focus on Youth and Potential at OL for example is not an answer for a team in rebuild mode in which your current or future QB needs a lot of help.
Drafting a 2nd Round Safety does NOTHING to help an anemic offense. And if you are going to win on Defense and you go with the Safety - then draft a 3rd DL which long term can potentially prevent your finesse Defense from getting the ball rammed down your throat like Minny did. There is more to Defennse than Edge rushers.
They do a good job of sticking to BPA it seems even if they have other needs like they did with Kyle Hamilton, but they have had plenty of big misses two.
The Ravens and Rams are good examples of being patient with the front office.
Then after the interview the beats came out with word that Hortiz was a terrible interview and no longer a serious candidate
Ultimately the leaks said what was so “terrible “ about Hortiz interview- when asked about who he would bring in as a HC he suggested Jim Harbaugh as a possibility
Was this true? Is this what happened?
The Chargers have subsequently hired Joe Hortiz and Hortiz in turn hired Jim Harbaugh to be his HC.
So that does in fact lend some credence to the leaks being true as they probably didn’t randomly connect Hortiz and Harbaugh 2 years early
Then after the interview the beats came out with word that Hortiz was a terrible interview and no longer a serious candidate
Ultimately the leaks said what was so “terrible “ about Hortiz interview- when asked about who he would bring in as a HC he suggested Jim Harbaugh as a possibility
Was this true? Is this what happened?
The Chargers have subsequently hired Joe Hortiz and Hortiz in turn hired Jim Harbaugh to be his HC.
So that does in fact lend some credence to the leaks being true as they probably didn’t randomly connect Hortiz and Harbaugh 2 years early
wrong. the chargers hired harbaugh, and harbaugh hired the GM. the other finalist with hortiz was our own brandon brown.
harbaugh was my #1 choice in both 2020 and 2022, but he is also a weird guy so it is hard to tell what is real and not real in his negotiations. he interviewed with the Vikings before they hired KOC in 2022 but i think he took himself out of the running at some point when michigan paid him more.