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NFT: Hurricane Helene

GruningsOnTheHill : 9/24/2024 8:21 pm
I know many of our BBI brethren are down here in Florida, so I figured I would start a thread and see if any others are feeling a bit of anxiety about this looming system that came out of nowhere and is expected to hit Tallahassee in 48 hours as a Cat 3/4 hurricane.

I'm about half-way up the state on the Gulf side, on a barrier island that's 50 miles below Tampa. It's looking like the eye of this monster will pass us @150 miles out to the Gulf, but it's the storm surge I'm worried about. NOAA is saying a surge of "greater than 9 feet;" the NHC map forecasts a 4-7' surge; but the CERA map is saying a 4' maximum surge.

A four-foot surge is nothing--we get 3 or 4 of those every summer. A 9' surge...? That would be a third of the way up the garage. Our house is above the garage per code and we will be driving to a hotel inland, but a ruining a table saw, an old 78rpm Wurly jukebox that sits on a slightly raised platform, and all the other stuff down there would be...below average.

It's tiring having to go through this every single September/October. Might be time to re-think this living-in-paradise stuff.
This time of the season those  
section125 : 9/24/2024 8:37 pm : link
storms pop up in the Caribbean, so short notice on them.

I'm East Coast so this will not effect me except more rain.

Getting off the island is smart. At 150 miles, wind shouldn't be an issue for you, so all you can do is hope it scoots by quickly and doesn't build the surge. Best wishes and safe travel inland.
stay safe Grunings....  
BillKo : 9/24/2024 8:40 pm : link
we used to go to Sanibel every year until the last hurricane that wiped it out.

Last two years, Maderia Beach - is that around where you are?

It's crazy when you look at these places on a map - barrier islands are just out there flapping.
Don't know if it's bc I work on water  
BigBlue in Keys : 9/24/2024 8:59 pm : link
Or it's just the time of year that I check it a lot. But I've been watching this for close to a week already. I'd get as much stuff prepared in advance if you have to go and block your expensive stuff in your garage as high as you can. It's going to wobble the next few days so get prepared for anything. A little to the west as of 8pm is a good thing. It's also a fast moving, quickly developing storm so to me that means it has less time to push a big wall of water compared to a slow moving, long established storm. Good luck!
We are flying into Orlando tomorrow  
Fast Eddie : 9/24/2024 9:07 pm : link
Is it headed in that direction?
Hi and thanks  
GruningsOnTheHill : 9/24/2024 9:16 pm : link
Yeah--this one has been on my radar from the outset. As recently as yesterday, coworkers were unaware of it. This one has been tracking to the west all day per the "models," but I fear a situation like two years ago, where all the predictions were wrong and it wiped out Ft Myers Beach.

Madeira Beach is up over the other side of the Skyway Bridge from us. I'm on Longboat Key.

Nobody else living on the Gulf side?
RE: We are flying into Orlando tomorrow  
section125 : 9/24/2024 9:17 pm : link
In comment 16622895 Fast Eddie said:
Quote:
Is it headed in that direction?


No - almost straight North toward Tallahassee and the Big Bend.
RE: RE: We are flying into Orlando tomorrow  
Fast Eddie : 9/24/2024 9:45 pm : link
In comment 16622909 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16622895 Fast Eddie said:


Quote:


Is it headed in that direction?





No - almost straight North toward Tallahassee and the Big Bend.

Thanks!
RE: RE: RE: We are flying into Orlando tomorrow  
section125 : 9/24/2024 9:54 pm : link
In comment 16622931 Fast Eddie said:
Quote:
In comment 16622909 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16622895 Fast Eddie said:


Quote:


Is it headed in that direction?





No - almost straight North toward Tallahassee and the Big Bend.


Thanks!


Likely to be rainy, though.
As of this morning (Wednesday)  
Fred-in-Florida : 9/25/2024 5:57 am : link
The track seems to have stayed the same. West of the peninsula going to hit Florida up at the ‘Big Bend’. Lots of rain and wind for me in the middle of the state. Not much early today but later this evening we should start to get some squalls. Tomorrow the big event.

Similar to Debbie earlier in the year.

Be safe EdinFWB!

I'm in manatee county,  
bLiTz 2k : 9/25/2024 6:30 am : link
My house is just enough inland and outside flood zones.

Biggest thing for me is the wife and kids ride it out at home while I work overnight during the storm.

Aside from potential of power loss from wind not too much to worry about (although communities near use are going through a lot of stress from flooding with the dam release of the last storm).

If we lived on the water as you do, yea we'd leave for sure. Stay safe!
I'm in Key West  
Capt. : 9/25/2024 7:06 am : link
Most of the other charter captains and I have been watching this for close to a week. I think we will just get brushed by the outer edge of the storm. Right now they are calling for winds of 35kts or so. Not too worried about that. The biggest problem will be if it "wobbles" a little to the right as it slides out into the gulf. Traditionally the storms like this that form in the gulf cause us the most problems. when they come from the east they have to cross Cuba and that generally knocks them down a bit. Fortunately, we are not on the full moon so we won't have the added fun of extreme tides. My house is in old town KW and on one of the higher parts of the island. That being said, I'm only 8 ft above sea level. Nobody has ever gotten a nosebleed walking up the steps to my house, but It has never flooded near me either. In Hurricane Wilma, I waded through over 3 feet of water to get to my boat to check it, but my street was clear. I truly hope I never have to do that again in my lifetime.
Outer bands starting to come ashore  
section125 : 9/25/2024 7:48 am : link
on the southeast coast. NHC has hardly moved the projected path. Speed of movement probably prevents a prolonged surge.
I'm in Ocala - central Fla.  
mullica : 9/25/2024 8:24 am : link
Woke up this AM to read that the storm moved 40 miles west which will help. Still gonna get slammed but not as bad as Talahassee. Just moved here two years ago from Jersey - ain't used to this shit.
I'm a SnowBirder in Jupiter...live on LI  
mvftw : 9/25/2024 8:25 am : link
I just had Hurricane Shutters installed in August...
My family and I live in Tallahassee.  
Ceez2.0 : 9/25/2024 8:36 am : link
We got rocked by tornadoes back in May which we haven't fully recovered from and now this. So sick of it. We're getting the heck out of dodge a little later today, hopefully we don't come back to too much of a shit show.

Stay safe to all those who have to deal with Helene.
RE: I'm in Ocala - central Fla.  
section125 : 9/25/2024 8:42 am : link
In comment 16623053 mullica said:
Quote:
Woke up this AM to read that the storm moved 40 miles west which will help. Still gonna get slammed but not as bad as Talahassee. Just moved here two years ago from Jersey - ain't used to this shit.


You never get used to it, you just learn not to panic. I moved into Florida the day hurricane Erin ran into Sebastian/Vero. Never knew it was coming until I called the property manager to say we'd be there the following day and he said don't bother. Luckily my brother lived in Jax and we stopped there. Nice 1st day, eh!
Seems like it’s going to make landfall in a sparsely populated  
bubba0825 : 9/25/2024 9:46 am : link
Area of Florida?
Living in Naples  
Turf Toe : 9/25/2024 10:31 am : link
For 30yrs, you get sort of used to it, but we all have some PTSD(post traumatic storm disorder)/fatigue down here. I see cat 3 at landfall predicted, hopefully in a less populated area, but I see a lot of excited chatter on the hurricane forums about the high gulf water temp and rapid intensification, which has been the case too often, recently. I don’t think we see much here, but keeping my fingers crossed all those in the path are safe!
RE: Seems like it’s going to make landfall in a sparsely populated  
section125 : 9/25/2024 10:47 am : link
In comment 16623122 bubba0825 said:
Quote:
Area of Florida?


If you call the capital sparsely populated....
Storm Surge is tricky but there are maps and you need to figure out  
Burst Bubble 25 : 9/25/2024 11:18 am : link
tides.

I lived on a barrier island outside of Tampa for Irma and even there I was 5 ft above sea level. That being said if you catch it at wrong time a 4 ft storm surge can be more like 7 if you catch the tides wrong. The opposite can happen as well obviously.

Storm surge seems like it will be the issue with this one as it seems to be fast moving, which is good because it's been hot and humid and the West Coast of Florida has seen a lot of rain lately, lots of localized flooding
I'm in Safety Harbor  
BobR in Durham : 9/25/2024 12:53 pm : link
Storm surge could be an issue for some areas near here but we're ok on that count. It's the rain that will pose the biggest threat to us. When Debbie came through in August, there were quite a few neighborhoods in non-flood zones in Pinellas, Bradenton and Sarasota counties that flooded due to the volume of rain. This is how things have changed.
RE: I'm in Safety Harbor  
section125 : 9/25/2024 2:09 pm : link
In comment 16623376 BobR in Durham said:
Quote:
Storm surge could be an issue for some areas near here but we're ok on that count. It's the rain that will pose the biggest threat to us. When Debbie came through in August, there were quite a few neighborhoods in non-flood zones in Pinellas, Bradenton and Sarasota counties that flooded due to the volume of rain. This is how things have changed.


It has been a very wet summer on the east coast. Not sure of the west coast.
RE: RE: I'm in Safety Harbor  
mvftw : 9/25/2024 3:29 pm : link
It has been a very wet summer on the east coast. Not sure of the west coast. [/quote]
Do you mean the East Coast of Florida? I was in the West Palm area for 2 months this summer and little rain...
Naples here also  
HomerJones45 : 9/25/2024 4:39 pm : link
cloudy with an occasional shower and light breeze. Looking pretty ominous to the SE. This one looks like a fast mover (Ian took forever to come and forever to go). Good luck and stay safe to our brothers and sisters up the coast.
RE: RE: RE: I'm in Safety Harbor  
section125 : 9/25/2024 4:42 pm : link
In comment 16623539 mvftw said:
Quote:
It has been a very wet summer on the east coast. Not sure of the west coast.

Do you mean the East Coast of Florida? I was in the West Palm area for 2 months this summer and little rain... [/quote]

Yep. I live in Martin County and yes in July it wasn't that wet. Since then, it has been raining several times per week. One of the golf courses I play at just said they have had 17 inches of rain in September thru yesterday....
RE: RE: RE: RE: I'm in Safety Harbor  
BobR in Durham : 9/25/2024 6:10 pm : link
In comment 16623604 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16623539 mvftw said:


Quote:


It has been a very wet summer on the east coast. Not sure of the west coast.


Do you mean the East Coast of Florida? I was in the West Palm area for 2 months this summer and little rain...


Yep. I live in Martin County and yes in July it wasn't that wet. Since then, it has been raining several times per week. One of the golf courses I play at just said they have had 17 inches of rain in September thru yesterday.... [/quote]

It's been a very wet summer in the Pinellas, too. 7 inches in June, almost 8" in July, and over 16 inches in August - although Debbie helped with that.

But what I was referring to was the changing nature of storms we're getting here, dumping more and more rain. Every hurricane is obviously its own animal but the slow moving, rain-dumping kind is getting more common.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'm in Safety Harbor  
section125 : 9/25/2024 6:18 pm : link
In comment 16623661 BobR in Durham said:
Quote:
In comment 16623604 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16623539 mvftw said:


Quote:


It has been a very wet summer on the east coast. Not sure of the west coast.


Do you mean the East Coast of Florida? I was in the West Palm area for 2 months this summer and little rain...



Yep. I live in Martin County and yes in July it wasn't that wet. Since then, it has been raining several times per week. One of the golf courses I play at just said they have had 17 inches of rain in September thru yesterday....


It's been a very wet summer in the Pinellas, too. 7 inches in June, almost 8" in July, and over 16 inches in August - although Debbie helped with that.

But what I was referring to was the changing nature of storms we're getting here, dumping more and more rain. Every hurricane is obviously its own animal but the slow moving, rain-dumping kind is getting more common. [/quote]

I think you are just getting tired of them. I really don't see any changes.
What I don't like is naming storms that are clearly not tropical in formation. Like they are trying to meet their numbers.
I’m near Tarpon Springs, but not near any  
tony stg : 9/25/2024 6:32 pm : link
of the springs, bayous, or the Anclote River so I should be safe from surge. I put my hurricane panels up a couple of days ago just in case the storm decided to make a right hand turn.

Stay safe y’all.
Surge  
GruningsOnTheHill : 9/25/2024 7:34 pm : link
Low tide is at around 4pm tomorrow, which is right when this thing is supposed to be passing @150 miles out in the Gulf. High tide is just after midnight, about an hour after projected landfall. Should the timing of low tide help to mitigate the surge?
Yes, low tide is a good thing in this case  
BobR in Durham : 9/25/2024 10:25 pm : link
Surge level will at least be lower because of it.
How’d y’all make out? I’m near Tarpon Springs FL but far enough away  
tony stg : 9/27/2024 4:22 pm : link
that storm surge was not an issue. Had gusts of 70 mph with sustained winds of 40. Only a couple of inches of rain. Lost power for about 10 hours but the generator did its thing. Lost the top of a 20 foot tall Ligustrum tree, but that was about it.

The coastal areas are in bad, bad shape. The videos I’ve seen are extremely sad. Prayers for all who need them.
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