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Would You Trade Nabers..

DefenseWins : 9/28/2024 9:50 am
to draft our franchise QB next year?

He is likely worth more now than when we drafted him because the teams are seeing he was the best WR in the draft.

Think back to pre-draft this past year. All of us would have preferred to have selected our franchise QB vs a WR.

So, if our top QB prospect is on the board and the team on the clock already has their QB, would you trade Nabers for their pick?

I would have to say yes.
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RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
Go Terps : 9/28/2024 4:47 pm : link
In comment 16629358 Sean said:
Quote:
Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.


That's definitely the preferred road now. though I have to say, watching these QBs I agree with Sy's original assessment that none of these guys would have been in the top 6 last year.

Still a lot of football to go but if the Giants didn't draft a QB this year I don't know why they would next year.
RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 4:49 pm : link
In comment 16629358 Sean said:
Quote:
Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.


Cite the QB. Or QB's. By the way. Levis throws a great deep ball. I mentioned Fields this past year no one seemed to jump on that. SO now what about Fields? etc. CIte the QBs.
RE: RE: RE: Are you nuts?  
bw in dc : 9/28/2024 4:51 pm : link
In comment 16629323 eric2425ny said:
Quote:


Let’s not downplay how good Nabers has been so far. None of the players you noted looked like this their first three weeks in the NFL. None of them. Thats the key, imagine where Nabers will be after a year or two in the league. Sky is the limit. Can’t trade that potential away.


You should take a look at Chase's first four games in the NFL.

Look, I'm not downplaying how good Nabers has looked. But I'm not ready to canonize him as one of the best yet after only four games. Can we try to be measured for a change?
Go Terps  
Sean : 9/28/2024 4:53 pm : link
We saw them do it in 2019 a year after the stronger QB class in 2018. It's funny, everyone goes nuts over tanking yet the Giants passed on Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in that draft.

giantstock - the problem with Fields is the Giants would pay him $40M - $50M after the season. It was a dangerous proposition given they just went with it with Jones. They'd find a reason to pay him.
RE: To the original question -  
bw in dc : 9/28/2024 4:54 pm : link
In comment 16629363 section125 said:
Quote:
are you out of your mind? You finally get a game breaker and you think about trading him?

I sometimes wonder if people are silly or just talking shit to stir up the pot...


But I am a bit amazed that after four games many are so convinced Nabers is great that he's essentially untouchable. Even in a theoretical exercise where we could secure a position to grab a lottery talented QB.
bw  
Sean : 9/28/2024 4:57 pm : link
Out of curiosity, would you offer the Falcons Nabers straight up for Penix?
RE: bw  
Go Terps : 9/28/2024 5:00 pm : link
In comment 16629385 Sean said:
Quote:
Out of curiosity, would you offer the Falcons Nabers straight up for Penix?


I know you're not asking me, but if you were my answer would be fuck yes.
RE: bw  
bw in dc : 9/28/2024 5:02 pm : link
In comment 16629385 Sean said:
Quote:
Out of curiosity, would you offer the Falcons Nabers straight up for Penix?


What an interesting question. Probably not because I don't like Penix's mobility.

Ask Terps. ;)
Gee...  
bw in dc : 9/28/2024 5:04 pm : link
who would have guessed...

GT has a crush on Penix like a teenage boy has on Taylor Swift.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Are you nuts?  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 5:06 pm : link
In comment 16629345 eric2425ny said:
Quote:
In comment 16629340 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 16629323 eric2425ny said:


Quote:


In comment 16629266 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 16629165 Matt M. said:


Quote:


I want a franchise QB throwing to him. He's already establishing himself as a top 10 WR in the league (probably better).



Top ten already?

I mean, there are guys who have done big things for a number of years in the NFL:

Chase, Hill, Samuel, Jefferson, Lamb, Evans, Kupp, Adams, Brown, St. Brown, Smith, Diggs, etc.

Nabers looks really good thus far. But there are serious cart-before-the-horse antics taking place here...



Let’s not downplay how good Nabers has been so far. None of the players you noted looked like this their first three weeks in the NFL. None of them. Thats the key, imagine where Nabers will be after a year or two in the league. Sky is the limit. Can’t trade that potential away.



I agree there is no way to minimize Nabers vs the other super WR's. He has matched his hype - these past 3 games it's as evdient as anything he's a superstar barring injury. But with that siad, how many wins do you think he will carry them ot this year as good as he is?

The point is the WR spot has more limitation than the QB. So for the below scenario you wouldn't make the trade next year if the belwo opportuntiy came up and all the evaluation was that you can get the next Daniels?


========================
The Giants and New England have among the top picks in the draft but New England is ahead of Giants. They value a top notch Receiver to go with Maye while a QB like Jayden Daniels is there to be drafted. The top WR in the draft is not near Nabers.

You wouldn't have the conviction to go after a Jayden Daniels type if that is the evaluataion you come up with - with that particular QB being available to draft?



No, I wouldn’t. The failure rate is too high to give up what appears to be a blue chip player. As others have pointed out, Josh Allen and Mahomes, who are light years ahead of the other QB’s in this league were not even top 5 picks. If they are in that spot you trade three firsts before you trade Nabers. Those future firsts you are trading away could end up being Evan Neal caliber players.


Without a doubt they should. What others failed to point out is that Mahomes and Allen were available to be drafted early. Why not take them top 3 etc?

If you feel your scouts aren’t incapable of making this choice then find others instead of laying the excuse on your incompetence (not you personally).

And a third point-- the failure of the great WR's leading their team to year over-year-success is way too little. It’s more of a failure. Please cite the success rate of all-time great WR's Jefferson and Hill in the playoffs without a top tier QB?

If you want to to give up many 1st rounder’s okay – that isn’t my point. The point I’m bringing up if it is one or the other. You obviously go with the QB if you have strong conviction he’s a stud. I don’t agree with “just getting a decent future QB.” But one in which my scouting department bangs the table and says he is “Josh Allen” then hell yeah. Otherwise why do I have them employed?
“Would You Trade Nabers ..”  
MojoEd : 9/28/2024 5:06 pm : link
Hard stop, “no”.
RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
section125 : 9/28/2024 5:15 pm : link
In comment 16629377 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 16629358 Sean said:


Quote:


Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.



Cite the QB. Or QB's. By the way. Levis throws a great deep ball. I mentioned Fields this past year no one seemed to jump on that. SO now what about Fields? etc. CIte the QBs.


Fields? His team just got rid of him - a team hurting for QB just
got rid of him? And you want him?
RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
bw in dc : 9/28/2024 5:18 pm : link
In comment 16629406 section125 said:
Quote:

Fields? His team just got rid of him - a team hurting for QB just
got rid of him? And you want him?


I wouldn't be so quick to conclude the Bears made the right choice. And I like Caleb Williams.

But I have always liked Fields. Pittsburgh getting him for only a 6th round pick was a coup.
RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 5:18 pm : link
In comment 16629406 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16629377 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 16629358 Sean said:


Quote:


Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.



Cite the QB. Or QB's. By the way. Levis throws a great deep ball. I mentioned Fields this past year no one seemed to jump on that. SO now what about Fields? etc. CIte the QBs.



Fields? His team just got rid of him - a team hurting for QB just
got rid of him? And you want him?


He';s 3-0. You do realize that, right?

And how expensive is he?
.  
Go Terps : 9/28/2024 5:27 pm : link
Fields - 3-0
Darnold - 3-0

"What choice did the Giants have other than Jones?"
RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
section125 : 9/28/2024 5:33 pm : link
In comment 16629414 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 16629406 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16629377 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 16629358 Sean said:


Quote:


Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.



Cite the QB. Or QB's. By the way. Levis throws a great deep ball. I mentioned Fields this past year no one seemed to jump on that. SO now what about Fields? etc. CIte the QBs.



Fields? His team just got rid of him - a team hurting for QB just
got rid of him? And you want him?



He';s 3-0. You do realize that, right?

And how expensive is he?


He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 5:38 pm : link
In comment 16629430 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16629414 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 16629406 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16629377 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 16629358 Sean said:


Quote:


Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.



Cite the QB. Or QB's. By the way. Levis throws a great deep ball. I mentioned Fields this past year no one seemed to jump on that. SO now what about Fields? etc. CIte the QBs.



Fields? His team just got rid of him - a team hurting for QB just
got rid of him? And you want him?



He';s 3-0. You do realize that, right?

And how expensive is he?



He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.


Hes 3-0. He is part of the Steelers, is he not?

And how expesnive is he? You avoided that question for some reason?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
section125 : 9/28/2024 5:45 pm : link
In comment 16629435 giantstock said:
Quote:

He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.



Hes 3-0. He is part of the Steelers, is he not?

And how expesnive is he? You avoided that question for some reason?


Don't be thick. He is not winning the games. The defense is winning the games. The Giants have a game manager already. He is not anybody's answer at QB.

I don't want him. Why do I care what his salary is? Probably a couple mill per. Go look it up yourself.

He was marginal to poor at Chicago. He will be marginally better at Pitts because he has one of the best coaches in football.
Mike in Ohio nailed it  
arniefez : 9/28/2024 5:59 pm : link
rookie QB success rate is most dependent on which team and which head coach the rookie QB goes to. Most rookie QBs wind up on terrible teams with unstable and incompetent ownership, front office and coaching staffs.

I don't watch the Jags. I don't know if Lawrence is any good. I do know Sam Darnold had similar lack of support from two terrible owners, and played on terrible teams with terrible coaching staffs and now he looks pretty good. I bet Lawrence would do just fine if he was playing for Miami instead of Jacksonville.
RE: It gets not obvious when people change the question  
DefenseWins : 9/28/2024 6:10 pm : link
In comment 16628986 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
The answers here mostly range from “the QB sucks so, no” and “I’d just trade something else and have both.”

I don’t get why people come to threads that pose hypothetical questions and then change the question to say “both!”


It is because people cannot just play the game. The thread is not real. It is just a simple question. At least YOU get it Mike.

For the rest of you, this assumes there is a QB who the team loves. It assumes there is the next top 5 NFL QB sitting there. I mean.. we have people here saying we should tank for the draft pick.
RE: .  
DefenseWins : 9/28/2024 6:12 pm : link
In comment 16629425 Go Terps said:
Quote:
Fields - 3-0
Darnold - 3-0

"What choice did the Giants have other than Jones?"


I can only imagine the noises coming out of your vagina if the Giants rolled with Darnold as our starter this year.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 6:14 pm : link
In comment 16629444 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16629435 giantstock said:


Quote:



He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.



Hes 3-0. He is part of the Steelers, is he not?

And how expesnive is he? You avoided that question for some reason?



Don't be thick. He is not winning the games. The defense is winning the games. The Giants have a game manager already. He is not anybody's answer at QB.

I don't want him. Why do I care what his salary is? Probably a couple mill per. Go look it up yourself.

He was marginal to poor at Chicago. He will be marginally better at Pitts because he has one of the best coaches in football.


Stop being an idiot like you normally are. It's so stupid for you to understand he is a part of the team. Your posts before have been moron but this hit a new level. He’s part of the team playing the mots important position in the NFL The NFL is a TEAM SPORT which apparently you are too moronic to understand. I can't help it you are too stupid to understand team concepts. But it probably relates back to 1st grade education.
RE: RE: Trevor Lawrence  
DefenseWins : 9/28/2024 6:14 pm : link
In comment 16629255 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16629236 Ash_3 said:


Quote:


was widely declared as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. He has been a disappointment. Some might argue that means even more hesitation about picking a QB.





Those who argue that aren't thinking clearly. No draft prospect at any position is a sure thing.

It's okay to make a mistake. The bigger mistake is not admitting the mistake and dragging the situation out where you miss opportunities to correct it.


Two things BW..
1. BBI wanted to "tank for Trevor".
2. You are correct in moving on from a mistake.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
section125 : 9/28/2024 6:26 pm : link
In comment 16629459 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 16629444 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16629435 giantstock said:


Quote:



He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.



Hes 3-0. He is part of the Steelers, is he not?

And how expesnive is he? You avoided that question for some reason?



Don't be thick. He is not winning the games. The defense is winning the games. The Giants have a game manager already. He is not anybody's answer at QB.

I don't want him. Why do I care what his salary is? Probably a couple mill per. Go look it up yourself.

He was marginal to poor at Chicago. He will be marginally better at Pitts because he has one of the best coaches in football.



Stop being an idiot like you normally are. It's so stupid for you to understand he is a part of the team. Your posts before have been moron but this hit a new level. He’s part of the team playing the mots important position in the NFL The NFL is a TEAM SPORT which apparently you are too moronic to understand. I can't help it you are too stupid to understand team concepts. But it probably relates back to 1st grade education.


When you resort to name calling you have lost the argument.

Justin Fields - whoopee he is on the team. He is a game manager. The Giants have one of those. Is that what you want? Another subpar game manager? He was bad enough that Chicago gave up on him and got a 6th(?) rounder for him. They have put up 51 points in three games.

He is a FA, so we will see what teams think of him. Pittsburgh may keep him, because Tomlin is a bit of a miracle worker, but depends on his defense to win.

So have a nice day.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 6:32 pm : link
In comment 16629469 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16629459 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 16629444 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16629435 giantstock said:


Quote:



He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.



Hes 3-0. He is part of the Steelers, is he not?

And how expesnive is he? You avoided that question for some reason?



Don't be thick. He is not winning the games. The defense is winning the games. The Giants have a game manager already. He is not anybody's answer at QB.

I don't want him. Why do I care what his salary is? Probably a couple mill per. Go look it up yourself.

He was marginal to poor at Chicago. He will be marginally better at Pitts because he has one of the best coaches in football.



Stop being an idiot like you normally are. It's so stupid for you to understand he is a part of the team. Your posts before have been moron but this hit a new level. He’s part of the team playing the mots important position in the NFL The NFL is a TEAM SPORT which apparently you are too moronic to understand. I can't help it you are too stupid to understand team concepts. But it probably relates back to 1st grade education.



When you resort to name calling you have lost the argument.

Justin Fields - whoopee he is on the team. He is a game manager. The Giants have one of those. Is that what you want? Another subpar game manager? He was bad enough that Chicago gave up on him and got a 6th(?) rounder for him. They have put up 51 points in three games.

He is a FA, so we will see what teams think of him. Pittsburgh may keep him, because Tomlin is a bit of a miracle worker, but depends on his defense to win.

So have a nice day.


LMAO you start the insulting by calling me thick that you whine like a bitch because I call you names. It;s okay for you to insult but becasue you're too stupid to understand sports concepts you have to whine to me like bitch becuase soemthign is stuck up your ass?

Nothing started you idiot until you insulted me. and you think I'm going to take it from an idiot like you?

People treat these things as binary when they're not  
Jerry in_DC : 9/28/2024 8:10 pm : link
Just because you believe in a draft pick doesn't mean he's going to be good. Every pick has some unknown probability of being great/good/average/bad. If you don't think about it that way you're missing the boat. To use an example, would you trade Nabers for a QB that has

A 5% chance of being Josh Allen
A 50% chance of being Dak Prescott
A 45% chance of being Daniel Jones or worse

People might object to those percentages, but that's pretty close to the distribution at the top of the draft.
As to the OP  
AROCK1000 : 9/28/2024 8:27 pm : link
F#$@&k no!!!
Nabors may wind up as the best offensive player in Giants history...if healthy
No  
kelly : 9/28/2024 8:31 pm : link
Especially with Schoen's previous draft results
RE: People treat these things as binary when they're not  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 8:45 pm : link
In comment 16629554 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
Just because you believe in a draft pick doesn't mean he's going to be good. Every pick has some unknown probability of being great/good/average/bad. If you don't think about it that way you're missing the boat. To use an example, would you trade Nabers for a QB that has

A 5% chance of being Josh Allen
A 50% chance of being Dak Prescott
A 45% chance of being Daniel Jones or worse

People might object to those percentages, but that's pretty close to the distribution at the top of the draft.


You have these %'s as a link or you made them up?

I will say 10 of the 14 Playoff Teams from Last year were 1st rd Qb's. There is always a threat these Qb's get traded for thuis the worry of getting jumped.

However youjust can't look at QB's - you have to look at WR's. I don 't know for certain but I would guess the top 5 WR's to start the 2023 season were Kupp, Hill, Jefferson, Hill and Chase. How many won a playoff game in 2023?


RE: RE: .  
santacruzom : 9/28/2024 8:48 pm : link
In comment 16629336 gary_from_chester said:
Quote:
In comment 16629329 Go Terps said:


Quote:


Nabers leads the league in targets with 52. Your know where he thanks in yards per target?

76th. 7.4 yards per target.

This is indeed similar to Barkley's rookie year, where everyone was excited about him reaching 2000 total yards but no one wanted to talk about how he needed a million plays to do it.

And like in 2018, the 2024 offense is terrible.



Nabers is dynamic. Get him a real QB and yards per target is very different. He’s a stud. Let’s not trash everyone because we’re disgusted with the state of the team.


I'm thrilled with him as a receiver and there's reason to be optimistic about his future. But there's also at least an equal reason to be pessimistic about the likelihood we can take advantage of his skillset in a way that translates into a potent offense that helps to win games, before his contract is up and he winds up on another team.
RE: Mike in Ohio nailed it  
santacruzom : 9/28/2024 8:52 pm : link
In comment 16629452 arniefez said:
Quote:
rookie QB success rate is most dependent on which team and which head coach the rookie QB goes to. Most rookie QBs wind up on terrible teams with unstable and incompetent ownership, front office and coaching staffs.

I don't watch the Jags. I don't know if Lawrence is any good. I do know Sam Darnold had similar lack of support from two terrible owners, and played on terrible teams with terrible coaching staffs and now he looks pretty good. I bet Lawrence would do just fine if he was playing for Miami instead of Jacksonville.


I have a theory that despite barely playing for them, Darnold probably benefitted quite a bit just by being on the 9'ers for one season.
and similarly  
santacruzom : 9/28/2024 8:53 pm : link
Fields and Malik Willis may use the one season in their current, competent teams as springboard towards significant improvement.
RE: RE: Mike in Ohio nailed it  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 8:57 pm : link
In comment 16629631 santacruzom said:
Quote:
In comment 16629452 arniefez said:


Quote:


rookie QB success rate is most dependent on which team and which head coach the rookie QB goes to. Most rookie QBs wind up on terrible teams with unstable and incompetent ownership, front office and coaching staffs.

I don't watch the Jags. I don't know if Lawrence is any good. I do know Sam Darnold had similar lack of support from two terrible owners, and played on terrible teams with terrible coaching staffs and now he looks pretty good. I bet Lawrence would do just fine if he was playing for Miami instead of Jacksonville.



I have a theory that despite barely playing for them, Darnold probably benefitted quite a bit just by being on the 9'ers for one season.


And Baker Mayfield was with teh Rams for a time before he moved on to TB.
RE: RE: People treat these things as binary when they're not  
Jerry in_DC : 9/28/2024 9:05 pm : link
In comment 16629622 giantstock said:
Quote:
In comment 16629554 Jerry in_DC said:


Quote:


Just because you believe in a draft pick doesn't mean he's going to be good. Every pick has some unknown probability of being great/good/average/bad. If you don't think about it that way you're missing the boat. To use an example, would you trade Nabers for a QB that has

A 5% chance of being Josh Allen
A 50% chance of being Dak Prescott
A 45% chance of being Daniel Jones or worse

People might object to those percentages, but that's pretty close to the distribution at the top of the draft.



You have these %'s as a link or you made them up?

I will say 10 of the 14 Playoff Teams from Last year were 1st rd Qb's. There is always a threat these Qb's get traded for thuis the worry of getting jumped.

However youjust can't look at QB's - you have to look at WR's. I don 't know for certain but I would guess the top 5 WR's to start the 2023 season were Kupp, Hill, Jefferson, Hill and Chase. How many won a playoff game in 2023?



I can assure you that the #s are pretty close to accurate, at least for a simplified exercise. You could answer the question. It wouldn't hurt you. Or you could use whatever numbers you want and answer that question. I might even make the trade with the probabilities that I listed.

What you can't do is say that the QB has a 100% chance to become Josh Allen. If you could, I would trade Nabers, Dexter, and 5 round picks for that. But that's just not how it works. Many highly drafted QBs end up being Daniel Jones or worse. Even smart organizations, even if they really "believe" in the QB, draft guys that end up being not that good.

The proposal is to trade something extremely valuable (Nabers) for something that might be more valuable (a great or good QB) or might be less valuable (a mediocre or bad QB). So you have to consider the probabilities of those outcomes.
RE: RE: RE: People treat these things as binary when they're not  
giantstock : 9/28/2024 9:11 pm : link
In comment 16629661 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
In comment 16629622 giantstock said:


Quote:


In comment 16629554 Jerry in_DC said:


Quote:


Just because you believe in a draft pick doesn't mean he's going to be good. Every pick has some unknown probability of being great/good/average/bad. If you don't think about it that way you're missing the boat. To use an example, would you trade Nabers for a QB that has

A 5% chance of being Josh Allen
A 50% chance of being Dak Prescott
A 45% chance of being Daniel Jones or worse

People might object to those percentages, but that's pretty close to the distribution at the top of the draft.



You have these %'s as a link or you made them up?

I will say 10 of the 14 Playoff Teams from Last year were 1st rd Qb's. There is always a threat these Qb's get traded for thuis the worry of getting jumped.

However youjust can't look at QB's - you have to look at WR's. I don 't know for certain but I would guess the top 5 WR's to start the 2023 season were Kupp, Hill, Jefferson, Hill and Chase. How many won a playoff game in 2023?





I can assure you that the #s are pretty close to accurate, at least for a simplified exercise. You could answer the question. It wouldn't hurt you. Or you could use whatever numbers you want and answer that question. I might even make the trade with the probabilities that I listed.

What you can't do is say that the QB has a 100% chance to become Josh Allen. If you could, I would trade Nabers, Dexter, and 5 round picks for that. But that's just not how it works. Many highly drafted QBs end up being Daniel Jones or worse. Even smart organizations, even if they really "believe" in the QB, draft guys that end up being not that good.

The proposal is to trade something extremely valuable (Nabers) for something that might be more valuable (a great or good QB) or might be less valuable (a mediocre or bad QB). So you have to consider the probabilities of those outcomes.


+1.
RE: RE: bw  
BleedBlue : 9/29/2024 2:25 am : link
In comment 16629387 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16629385 Sean said:


Quote:


Out of curiosity, would you offer the Falcons Nabers straight up for Penix?



I know you're not asking me, but if you were my answer would be fuck yes.


You’re nuts
Jesus BBI  
BleedBlue : 9/29/2024 2:29 am : link
Has become a joke


Fields stinks. Now all of a sudden you guys wanna trade for him?


NO we aren’t trading nabers. QBs need that alpha, we have one and we won’t need to trade anyone. We are going to be picking top 5 and can make the small jump up to get a qb or stay put and still get one.

I’m not trading a handful of guys on this team and nabers is top 3 on that list behind thomas and dex

Anyone saying yes is a clown. These 3 are cornerstone pieces at vital positions
RE: RE: RE: People treat these things as binary when they're not  
Go Terps : 9/29/2024 4:41 am : link
In comment 16629661 Jerry in_DC said:
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In comment 16629622 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629554 Jerry in_DC said:


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Just because you believe in a draft pick doesn't mean he's going to be good. Every pick has some unknown probability of being great/good/average/bad. If you don't think about it that way you're missing the boat. To use an example, would you trade Nabers for a QB that has

A 5% chance of being Josh Allen
A 50% chance of being Dak Prescott
A 45% chance of being Daniel Jones or worse

People might object to those percentages, but that's pretty close to the distribution at the top of the draft.



You have these %'s as a link or you made them up?

I will say 10 of the 14 Playoff Teams from Last year were 1st rd Qb's. There is always a threat these Qb's get traded for thuis the worry of getting jumped.

However youjust can't look at QB's - you have to look at WR's. I don 't know for certain but I would guess the top 5 WR's to start the 2023 season were Kupp, Hill, Jefferson, Hill and Chase. How many won a playoff game in 2023?





I can assure you that the #s are pretty close to accurate, at least for a simplified exercise. You could answer the question. It wouldn't hurt you. Or you could use whatever numbers you want and answer that question. I might even make the trade with the probabilities that I listed.

What you can't do is say that the QB has a 100% chance to become Josh Allen. If you could, I would trade Nabers, Dexter, and 5 round picks for that. But that's just not how it works. Many highly drafted QBs end up being Daniel Jones or worse. Even smart organizations, even if they really "believe" in the QB, draft guys that end up being not that good.

The proposal is to trade something extremely valuable (Nabers) for something that might be more valuable (a great or good QB) or might be less valuable (a mediocre or bad QB). So you have to consider the probabilities of those outcomes.


Nabers is a good player, but I'm not sure he's particularly valuable - if impact on wins and losses, as well as fungibility, is the measure of value.

The best WR in the league - Tyreek Hill - was traded by a SB contender so they could pay other positions. They went on to win the next two Super Bowls. What impact has Hill made in Miami? What impact is he making now without Tua?

A WR is a finishing piece, not a core element.
Hill has made a huge impact in Miami  
Jerry in_DC : 9/29/2024 8:47 am : link
They scored 496 points last year, 2nd in the league. Hill is the biggest reason why. They won 11 games despite a massive amount of injuries on defense. They were tied in record with a Josh Allen led team for the division and drew Mahomes in the playoffs.

You want to say that Mahomes and Allen are way more important than Hill? Yeah obviously. Miami doesn't have Mahomes and Allen. And at the time they acquired Hill, they had 10 years ahead of them of having to go through those guys to get anywhere.

Mahomes and Allen are probably good enough that they don't need top WRs. The next tier of QBs does. Burrow needs WRs. They went to the SB on a QB/WR model. Stafford needed WRs. The 49ers need their WRs. Philly. Baltimore probably needs one - thier passing has killed them in the playoffs. Detroit needs their WRs.

Unless the strategy is to do nothing until we get an inner ring HoF QB, then WRs are important.
RE: Hill has made a huge impact in Miami  
Sean : 9/29/2024 9:13 am : link
In comment 16629996 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
They scored 496 points last year, 2nd in the league. Hill is the biggest reason why. They won 11 games despite a massive amount of injuries on defense. They were tied in record with a Josh Allen led team for the division and drew Mahomes in the playoffs.

You want to say that Mahomes and Allen are way more important than Hill? Yeah obviously. Miami doesn't have Mahomes and Allen. And at the time they acquired Hill, they had 10 years ahead of them of having to go through those guys to get anywhere.

Mahomes and Allen are probably good enough that they don't need top WRs. The next tier of QBs does. Burrow needs WRs. They went to the SB on a QB/WR model. Stafford needed WRs. The 49ers need their WRs. Philly. Baltimore probably needs one - thier passing has killed them in the playoffs. Detroit needs their WRs.

Unless the strategy is to do nothing until we get an inner ring HoF QB, then WRs are important.

I was for QB in the draft. I didn't care how, I felt NYG needed to come away with any of Maye, McCarthy, Penix or Nix once the top two were clear. They didn't.

Now that they have Nabers, I'd rather just see him with someone like Milroe next year.

It seems Schoen is opting for a preload the roster before selecting a rookie QB type plan. Might as well see it through.
Yeah  
Jerry in_DC : 9/29/2024 9:28 am : link
Part of that for me was that there was no guarantee that Nabers was going to be a great player. Now we've seen it in the NFL and we know for sure that he is a very high level player. Even now, I'd still be OK if we went QB, but going with Nabers is looking fine.

The one problem is timeline. The next QB might not be good. And even if he does become good, he very likely won't be good right away.

Same as Nabers wasn't a guarantee. Saying "now we get our QB" is very very far from a guaranteed strategy.

We have to acknowledge that there were no easy answers. We've had a bad team for a long time and stupidly committed to a bad QB. It's real hard to get a lot better in a short time from that position.
RE: RE: RE: RE: People treat these things as binary when they're not  
DefenseWins : 9/29/2024 9:30 am : link
In comment 16629961 Go Terps said:
Quote:

Nabers is a good player, but I'm not sure he's particularly valuable - if impact on wins and losses, as well as fungibility, is the measure of value.

The best WR in the league - Tyreek Hill - was traded by a SB contender so they could pay other positions. They went on to win the next two Super Bowls. What impact has Hill made in Miami? What impact is he making now without Tua?

A WR is a finishing piece, not a core element.


I agree.. BUT, I would go for the WR before RB. For the offense, the two most important are the QB and the OL.
RE: Yeah  
Sean : 9/29/2024 9:32 am : link
In comment 16630020 Jerry in_DC said:
Quote:
Part of that for me was that there was no guarantee that Nabers was going to be a great player. Now we've seen it in the NFL and we know for sure that he is a very high level player. Even now, I'd still be OK if we went QB, but going with Nabers is looking fine.

The one problem is timeline. The next QB might not be good. And even if he does become good, he very likely won't be good right away.

Same as Nabers wasn't a guarantee. Saying "now we get our QB" is very very far from a guaranteed strategy.

We have to acknowledge that there were no easy answers. We've had a bad team for a long time and stupidly committed to a bad QB. It's real hard to get a lot better in a short time from that position.

I agree. But you see what the Vikings are doing with Darnold after drafting McCarthy. This regime is going to need to do the following:

1. Cut Jones in February (I have my doubts unfortunately)
2. Sign a transition QB
3. Draft a QB in the first round

The timeline is really tough, but they did that to themselves. 2022 was extremely costly to their timeline.
Giants need to beg, steal, and trade whoever  
jomanc : 9/29/2024 9:58 am : link
to get a top QB of the future. right now i am liking Milroe, but we will see by end of season. we can have 3 naber WR's, but without a QB to make long throws, its a waste. If we have Jones again or some other scrub signed we will remain in QB hell
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
nochance : 9/29/2024 10:11 am : link
In comment 16629435 giantstock said:
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In comment 16629414 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629358 Sean said:


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Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.



Cite the QB. Or QB's. By the way. Levis throws a great deep ball. I mentioned Fields this past year no one seemed to jump on that. SO now what about Fields? etc. CIte the QBs.



Fields? His team just got rid of him - a team hurting for QB just
got rid of him? And you want him?



He';s 3-0. You do realize that, right?

And how expensive is he?



He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.



Hes 3-0. He is part of the Steelers, is he not?

And how expesnive is he? You avoided that question for some reason?




Maybe you should wait a bit longer than 3 games. Didn't Darnold start out 3-0 2 years ago? How'd that work out.
I simply don’t see the Giants cutting Jones  
Mike from Ohio : 9/29/2024 2:18 pm : link
In the offseason. If they decide to draft a QB in April, they will certainly want a veteran on the roster to play until the rookie is ready and act as a mentor. Jones is already here, and familiar with the system. We also know that they think of his work ethic.

I just can’t see them cutting Jones and bringing in another veteran to be the presumed starter. Eli passed the torch to Jones. It is up to Jones to pass the torch to the next guy. This is not a spot on a roster to the Giants front office…it is a prestigious honor that is given to those who are worthy to occupy it.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
santacruzom : 9/29/2024 3:15 pm : link
In comment 16630042 nochance said:
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In comment 16629435 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629430 section125 said:


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In comment 16629414 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629406 section125 said:


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In comment 16629377 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629358 Sean said:


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Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.



Cite the QB. Or QB's. By the way. Levis throws a great deep ball. I mentioned Fields this past year no one seemed to jump on that. SO now what about Fields? etc. CIte the QBs.



Fields? His team just got rid of him - a team hurting for QB just
got rid of him? And you want him?



He';s 3-0. You do realize that, right?

And how expensive is he?



He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.



Hes 3-0. He is part of the Steelers, is he not?

And how expesnive is he? You avoided that question for some reason?





Maybe you should wait a bit longer than 3 games. Didn't Darnold start out 3-0 2 years ago? How'd that work out.


There is a very obvious and notable difference between his performance now vs then.
RE: I simply don’t see the Giants cutting Jones  
DefenseWins : 9/29/2024 4:14 pm : link
In comment 16630289 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In the offseason. If they decide to draft a QB in April, they will certainly want a veteran on the roster to play until the rookie is ready and act as a mentor. Jones is already here, and familiar with the system. We also know that they think of his work ethic.

I just can’t see them cutting Jones and bringing in another veteran to be the presumed starter. Eli passed the torch to Jones. It is up to Jones to pass the torch to the next guy. This is not a spot on a roster to the Giants front office…it is a prestigious honor that is given to those who are worthy to occupy it.


They would renegotiate his contract to one that is a fraction of what he has now. Or, they cut him.

I dont see what the issue is. We (the BBI braintrust) dont believe that Jones is worth a bag of dicks. So, why would we care if another team signs him? If anything, it would force the front office to finally address the QB position.
People treat these things as binary when they're not  
giantstock : 9/29/2024 7:17 pm : link
In comment 16629961 Go Terps said:
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In comment 16629661 Jerry in_DC said:


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In comment 16629622 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629554 Jerry in_DC said:


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I will say 10 of the 14 Playoff Teams from Last year were 1st rd Qb's. There is always a threat these Qb's get traded for thuis the worry of getting jumped.

However youjust can't look at QB's - you have to look at WR's. I don 't know for certain but I would guess the top 5 WR's to start the 2023 season were Kupp, Hill, Jefferson, Hill and Chase. How many won a playoff game in 2023?





I can assure you that the #s are pretty close to accurate, at least for a simplified exercise. You could answer the question. It wouldn't hurt you. Or you could use whatever numbers you want and answer that question. I might even make the trade with the probabilities that I listed.

What you can't do is say that the QB has a 100% chance to become Josh Allen. If you could, I would trade Nabers, Dexter, and 5 round picks for that. But that's just not how it works. Many highly drafted QBs end up being Daniel Jones or worse. Even smart organizations, even if they really "believe" in the QB, draft guys that end up being not that good.

The proposal is to trade something extremely valuable (Nabers) for something that might be more valuable (a great or good QB) or might be less valuable (a mediocre or bad QB). So you have to consider the probabilities of those outcomes.



Nabers is a good player, but I'm not sure he's particularly valuable - if impact on wins and losses, as well as fungibility, is the measure of value.

The best WR in the league - Tyreek Hill - was traded by a SB contender so they could pay other positions. They went on to win the next two Super Bowls. What impact has Hill made in Miami? What impact is he making now without Tua?

A WR is a finishing piece, not a core element.


What other players postions are "partcularly valuable" using your critera other than QB at the Ofensive End? What about the Defense? Maybe you say Jones for KC?

If you want to referecne Watt then why ingore his lack of wins and losses success? Who else?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: I'd rather pair a 2025 QB with Nabers  
giantstock : 9/29/2024 7:21 pm : link
In comment 16630042 nochance said:
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In comment 16629435 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629430 section125 said:


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In comment 16629414 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629406 section125 said:


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In comment 16629377 giantstock said:


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In comment 16629358 Sean said:


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Find a QB who can hit on a deep ball and go through progressions and take advantage of Nabers getting doubled. Jones does not have the brain for that, it was never the OL that prevented that. He's got time now and it's still the same.



Cite the QB. Or QB's. By the way. Levis throws a great deep ball. I mentioned Fields this past year no one seemed to jump on that. SO now what about Fields? etc. CIte the QBs.



Fields? His team just got rid of him - a team hurting for QB just
got rid of him? And you want him?



He';s 3-0. You do realize that, right?

And how expensive is he?



He's 3-0 or the Steelers are 3-0? He is not a good QB. They have scored 51 points - 17 points per game.



Hes 3-0. He is part of the Steelers, is he not?

And how expesnive is he? You avoided that question for some reason?





Maybe you should wait a bit longer than 3 games. Didn't Darnold start out 3-0 2 years ago? How'd that work out.


Maybe I shouldn.t

Maybe I should consider the lousy team he played for before?

Or maybe i should reference the Offense with the QB he left in Chicago isn't much better without him?

And maybe now I should look at game 4 as he is 3-1 and had a big time game in game 4?
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