Nick Falato
@nickfalato
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5m
The #Giants currently rank dead last in the NFL in yards per carry. They average just 3.4 YPC through four weeks.
Their only successful rushing game was Week 2 at Washington. |
in 2022 as a team they were 5th best at 4.8 yards per carry and had 4th most rushing TDs with 20 despite the worse OL.
they had 150 rushing 1st downs so they averaged almost 10 per game, so far this year they only have 21 which so about half that number. both barkley and jones were among the top 10 in rushing first downs that year from individual players.
amazingly they dont even have that many more passing first downs this year - they had 170 in 2022 so exactly 10 per game, this year they have 44 so 11 per game.
so essentially they strategically sacrificed what was the most productive feature of their 1 successful season and with a QB coming off a torn ACL increased the degree of difficulty for the whole offense.
nabers has obviously been spectacular but if their entire strategic plan was force feeding a rookie with the most targets ever while praying he has the stamina/durability to handle that many hits, that doesnt seem like such a good plan.
henry wanted to go there, that was a big miss.
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That's a huge part of the issue. We can point to Jones and Daboll on that. The interior Oline not getting enough push either. I know I'm going to get killed for it, but I have a suspicion we may see Neal in at RT and Eluemunor sliding in. Neal is a beast at run blocking at least and GVR isn't good enough in pass pro to justify not doing.
my problem with this offense right now is they are basically just force feeding nabers. that is no knock on the reality that nabers is the best thing on the offense by far, but it's not sustainable.
even if the running game isnt the focus, the passing game needs to be more diverse than just nabers. they have gotten nothing out of their tight ends and nothing out of their 3rd WR. hard to be a high volume passing attacked funneled to just 2 guys.
Yep. I haven't taken the time to study the games, but I get the sense the TEs are helping a lot with blocking, at least chipping, etc. We absolutely need to get them more involved in the passing attack. Nabers, Robinson out of slot and RBs is it. Almost literally nothing else.
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In comment 16631595 56goat said:
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In comment 16631476 JT039 said:
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its Jones fault...
Can't wait to hear this is why Jones is struggling.
Jones isn't struggling.
True. The 17 TD, 13 INT pace he's on is about his ceiling.
Well he sure as shit isn't excelling.
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In comment 16631476 JT039 said:
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its Jones fault...
Can't wait to hear this is why Jones is struggling.
Jones isn't struggling.
Jones is on pace for 16 TDs and 12 INTs. He’s averaging 6.1 per attempt. He’s 2-14 with an Interception on passes over 20 yards downfield. The team is averaging 15 points per game and is 1-3 against the soft part of the schedule.
The fact that some of you look at this as “not struggling” says all we need to know about the player you love
Y/C - 27th
TD% - 25th
Success % - 24th
Jones isn't struggling. He's just being himself.
Stealing the words of President John Kennedy's inauguration speed in 1960...
Ask not what Daniel Jones can do for the team. Ask what the team can do for Daniel Jones...
It’s completely mind boggling. You can tell that members of the DJFC simply do not watch other games that the Giants aren’t involved in. If they did, they’d know how stupid they all sound
Well, the DJFC was re-energized by the news that the Giants receivers have the second most drops so far.
So, if you factor in all of that critical yardage - I'm trying to think like a DJFC member - Jones is much better with his production.
They aren't saying it, but my guess is we are days or hours away from the DJFC arguing that Jones actually needs another WR1 to really maximize he dramatic upside. If he looks this decent with Nabers, imagine the results with another great WR...
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How’s the Yards Per Passing Attempt?
Well, the DJFC was re-energized by the news that the Giants receivers have the second most drops so far.
So, if you factor in all of that critical yardage - I'm trying to think like a DJFC member - Jones is much better with his production.
They aren't saying it, but my guess is we are days or hours away from the DJFC arguing that Jones actually needs another WR1 to really maximize he dramatic upside. If he looks this decent with Nabers, imagine the results with another great WR...
Well there’s this thread and another one that I just seen (plus other random clowns scattered on other threads) so it’s clear that the message they took away from their meeting at the clubhouse this weekend was “it’s the run blockings fault”.
How to play winning NFL football.
They are doing what a lot of people do - starting with a conclusion and working backwards to see how the existing facts can be fit to the conclusion. The first step in that is picking the facts you like and the facts you don't, and then over-emphasizing the facts you like and dismissing the importance of the facts you don't.
Y/C - 27th
TD% - 25th
Success % - 24th
Jones isn't struggling. He's just being himself.
you are right he is being himself - but himself as it has always been is right in the middle 1/3 of starters.
QBR is 14th,
EPA per play is 20th,
PFF grade is 20th,
completion% above expected is 13th,
the one thing abnormal is his avg air yards intended is 11th highest - which is from all the deep balls he cant hit.
if you take out week 1 where he was a lot worse than his usual league average, he has been a better version of himself other than the deep balls he cant hit and the drops.
you guys can keep pretending something would be different if minshew or baker were the qb, or if they had some extra cap room. or if they were the team smart enough to sign Darnold. but it wouldnt. Anyone at QB here would more likely be the Carolina versions of Darnold and Baker because the people running the organization making every decision have far more impact on the main goal (winning) than anyone else. the raiders, broncos, colts, bears, falcons have all gotten worse QB play than NYG with just as recently hired regimes and yet they are 2-2. herbert is injured and having his worst year averaging under 170 ypg, harbough turned them around and has them 2-2 despite it.
when there is enough of a trend of players leaving the organization and getting better while getting replaced with worse production here, that's when it's time to realize the problems run deeper than the players. Those are strategic flaws in design. A lot of us believed in Daboll going into this season, a lot of us appear to have been wrong about that.
https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/ - ( New Window )
did you read what i wrote? the rankings i quoted were all full season, i posted the chart to show that in the last 3 games he's actually been better than his norms, with week 1 included he is almost exactly on the league average intersections. this is probably in line with his career norms but worse than 2022:
What are we doing here? How are we still making arguments that Jones isn't what we know he is?
But what are we doing here with Jones? The guy has been awful this year. It is what it is.
What are we doing here? How are we still making arguments that Jones isn't what we know he is?
the argument isnt that we dont know what he is.
the argument is that we know precisely what he is - and its basically alex smith. or ryan tannehill. ironically enough the exact players he was comp'd to most frequently coming out of college.
that is not an endorsement, any team should be looking for better than that. the reality is however finding better than that is not so simple for any organization (even the really well run ones, which the nyg most certainly have not been). It took Andy Reid 5 years of Alex Smith (and just 1 playoff win in that time period) before he switched to Mahomes. We'd be happy with Vrabel right? Remember which QB he won most of his games with?
Jones is the lightning rod of this organizations ineptitude to the point where even a thread about their poor running game comes back to him but the problems have been above him. just as eli was the lightning rod for his final few years but the problems were above him. remember when it was eli that was holding the organization back? and how obj was going to explode in Cleveland now that he had a QB who wasnt cooked? Eli's been gone for a half decade now and we've seen 3 head coaches hired/fired by 2 different gms since. bad hires are what have held this organization back far more than the quarterbacks.
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I can't stand the rationalizing for this guy anymore. The chopping up and massaging of the numbers.
What are we doing here? How are we still making arguments that Jones isn't what we know he is?
the argument isnt that we dont know what he is.
the argument is that we know precisely what he is - and its basically alex smith. or ryan tannehill. ironically enough the exact players he was comp'd to most frequently coming out of college.
that is not an endorsement, any team should be looking for better than that. the reality is however finding better than that is not so simple for any organization (even the really well run ones, which the nyg most certainly have not been). It took Andy Reid 5 years of Alex Smith (and just 1 playoff win in that time period) before he switched to Mahomes. We'd be happy with Vrabel right? Remember which QB he won most of his games with?
Jones is the lightning rod of this organizations ineptitude to the point where even a thread about their poor running game comes back to him but the problems have been above him. just as eli was the lightning rod for his final few years but the problems were above him. remember when it was eli that was holding the organization back? and how obj was going to explode in Cleveland now that he had a QB who wasnt cooked? Eli's been gone for a half decade now and we've seen 3 head coaches hired/fired by 2 different gms since. bad hires are what have held this organization back far more than the quarterbacks.
3 head coaches and 2 GMs. And ya know the one constant through all of that? The QB. I guess it’s easier for some of you to just say that every single coach must suck and every single GM must suck rather than look towards the one constant on the team throughout it all.
As another poster once said, Daniel Jones has more pelts on his belt than Daniel Boone.
15 points per game so far this year. 30th in league only ahead of Patriots who won't let Drake Maye start yet and Miami who lost their QB to injury.
This is who he is, basically every year. And you don't need any graphs.
I can't believe we're still litigating this guy.
This is what hole-plugging as a team-building strategy gets you.
Jones is the lightning rod of this organizations ineptitude to the point where even a thread about their poor running game comes back to him but the problems have been above him. just as eli was the lightning rod for his final few years but the problems were above him. remember when it was eli that was holding the organization back? and how obj was going to explode in Cleveland now that he had a QB who wasnt cooked? Eli's been gone for a half decade now and we've seen 3 head coaches hired/fired by 2 different gms since. bad hires are what have held this organization back far more than the quarterbacks.
Per the bold, it reads as if you are suggesting Jones is a victim of a bad organization. But he's been just as poor as the organization. So, you really need to hold him more accountable.
It's like you find the one class he is doing fairly well in (your graph) but ignore all of the other classes he is failing or barely passing.
Jones, on the other hand, has not shown the ability to elevate the play of his offense around him. I am very confident, in year 6, saying he is a HUGE part of the problem here.
I can't believe we're still litigating this guy.
Yeah, like what are we doing? He isn’t a good QB.
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Jones is the lightning rod of this organizations ineptitude to the point where even a thread about their poor running game comes back to him but the problems have been above him. just as eli was the lightning rod for his final few years but the problems were above him. remember when it was eli that was holding the organization back? and how obj was going to explode in Cleveland now that he had a QB who wasnt cooked? Eli's been gone for a half decade now and we've seen 3 head coaches hired/fired by 2 different gms since. bad hires are what have held this organization back far more than the quarterbacks.
Per the bold, it reads as if you are suggesting Jones is a victim of a bad organization. But he's been just as poor as the organization. So, you really need to hold him more accountable.
It's like you find the one class he is doing fairly well in (your graph) but ignore all of the other classes he is failing or barely passing.
Also in regards to the bold and the part right before it and a thread on the running game turning into a Jones thread, it was turned into a Jones thread with the very first post. By a Jones apologist…
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Jones is the lightning rod of this organizations ineptitude to the point where even a thread about their poor running game comes back to him but the problems have been above him. just as eli was the lightning rod for his final few years but the problems were above him. remember when it was eli that was holding the organization back? and how obj was going to explode in Cleveland now that he had a QB who wasnt cooked? Eli's been gone for a half decade now and we've seen 3 head coaches hired/fired by 2 different gms since. bad hires are what have held this organization back far more than the quarterbacks.
Per the bold, it reads as if you are suggesting Jones is a victim of a bad organization. But he's been just as poor as the organization. So, you really need to hold him more accountable.
It's like you find the one class he is doing fairly well in (your graph) but ignore all of the other classes he is failing or barely passing.
Also I think the simplest explanation here, which many fans don't want to admit, is that both Daniel Jones and late-career Eli needed a ton of supporting resources invested in order to get adequate performances. This if of course messes up the roster build.
Jones's weakness is managing pressure, so we load up on passing blocking OLs and can no longer run the ball. Over the last 4-5 years of Eli, there was a 1st round receiver, a 2nd round receiver, a 1st round TE, and 1st round RB drafted, and they all took the field in 2018 only to be barely mediocre on offense.
Trying to mask mediocre QB play exposes a ton of issues with teams and create a hole-plugging mentality. We have posters on here earnestly arguing that Jones needs a high-round pass-catching TE now, as if he didn't already have one in the past with Engram and Waller and do next to nothing with it!
Jones, on the other hand, has not shown the ability to elevate the play of his offense around him. I am very confident, in year 6, saying he is a HUGE part of the problem here.
I agree on Jones but also think Eli simply wasn't as good, especially from 2016-on regardless of the OL. The problem with this org has been consistently trying to solve subpar QB play instead of just trying more options at the position.
Giants run game (3.4ypc/83y) and a huge drop form '22. Pass game needs to average 277 yards per/game to hit that target. 60/40 pass run split. SF and Detroit are and have been about 50/50. Both QB's have a high Y/A and with those schemes PA is a much bigger factor so that Y/A is not surprising.
I don't think the issue is all above the QB but I agree with Eric that at least a good amount of it is.
It worked in 2022 and the Minnesota Wild Card victory, I seem to recall.
I can't believe we're still litigating this guy.
in 69 games blaine gabbert had a 56% completion percentage with 51 tds and 50 ints. never eclipsed the 2200 yards he threw for as a rookie (completing just 50% of his passes). just not even close.
here's a trivia question that may surprise you, what year of alex smith's career was his first year over 3k passing yards and first winning season?
'13 139/4.7 '14 120/4.6 '15 128/4.7 '16 110/4.2 '17 119/4.7
Reid didn't try to make Smith something he wasn't. I don't think the 5k passer is a sound strategy for the vast majority of QB's and that approach has significant downsides.
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Jones is the lightning rod of this organizations ineptitude to the point where even a thread about their poor running game comes back to him but the problems have been above him. just as eli was the lightning rod for his final few years but the problems were above him. remember when it was eli that was holding the organization back? and how obj was going to explode in Cleveland now that he had a QB who wasnt cooked? Eli's been gone for a half decade now and we've seen 3 head coaches hired/fired by 2 different gms since. bad hires are what have held this organization back far more than the quarterbacks.
Per the bold, it reads as if you are suggesting Jones is a victim of a bad organization. But he's been just as poor as the organization. So, you really need to hold him more accountable.
It's like you find the one class he is doing fairly well in (your graph) but ignore all of the other classes he is failing or barely passing.
how is there any argument every NYG player the last decade isnt a victim of a bad organization?
do you realize how many giants have left and gone on to being more productive elsewhere, often winning at winning orgs, in the last decade?
linval joseph,
jonathan hankins,
prince,
justin pugh,
ereck flowers,
eli apple,
evan engram,
dalvin tomlinson,
romeo okwara,
devon kennard,
will hernandez,
bj hill,
lorenzo carter,
kevin zeitler,
jabrill peppers,
julian love,
barkley,
mckinney,
that's just off the top of my head im sure there are some others im missing.
so many of those guys were cut or wished away because they were considered "busts" or "cancers" only to go on to being productive starters after for better teams while the NYG replaced them with inferior players.
any player close to league average at their position is performing way better comparatively than the quality of performance we've gotten from our GMs and HCs.
if the only thing that mattered were QB performance what's the explanation for wasting the back half of Eli's prime? SB46 was his age 30 season.
I'm agreeing the organization has been poor. But so has Jones.
And you seem to be sidestepping that a bit.
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But he's been just as poor as the organization. So, you really need to hold him more accountable.
I'm agreeing the organization has been poor. But so has Jones.
And you seem to be sidestepping that a bit.
i am not sidestepping anything - i've long posted that his performance has been that of a middle 1/3 qb. there are plenty of non-subjective numbers supporting that.
do you think there is a single metric to support that the giants organization as a whole has been middle 1/3 the last decade?
and as is the case with jones the leaders of the organization are the ones who chose the players in the first place. so however much you fault any player for holding the organization back is it's still just as entirely the fault of the organization for choosing that player in the first place.
The Cleveland Browns would like a word.
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The problem with this org has been consistently trying to solve subpar QB play instead of just trying more options at the position.
The Cleveland Browns would like a word.
Well, they ran Baker Mayfield out of town during a down season that would still rank among Jones's best, so that's on them. It's not like Tim Couch, Johnny Manziel, and Derek Anderson were awesome players that the organization failed. Sometimes you just take a lot of bad QBs.
Why we've made this shift, I don't know.
But I also bring this up because oftentimes, fans want simply answers to things. Running game bad = Because Jones ineffective.
But sometimes there are more nuanced causes of problems.
Why we've made this shift, I don't know.
But I also bring this up because oftentimes, fans want simply answers to things. Running game bad = Because Jones ineffective.
But sometimes there are more nuanced causes of problems.
especially so since the margins between winning/losing in the nfl are very slight. im not sure if people think daboll is lying to us or to himself, but the first thing he cited as the difference against dallas was the running game. and that was widely speculated as an area they should have been able to take advantage of going in since dallas had struggled on both ends. and instead dallas flipped the script.
prior to the dallas game i thought the giants run game had been pretty good other than the fumbles but seeing the stat from Nick Falato that sparked this thread that collectively they are last in YPC seemed like a pretty telling metric that this wasnt just 1 isolated bad performance.
Browns. Prior the the last drive they were 27c/70y/2.5y. That would be through 58 minutes. Then the Dallas disaster.
I think it is a combination of personnel, scheme and commitment/philosophy.
Now Mike: Some discussion on that duo concept above in a thread. It does leave an unblocked LB that the RB has to read correctly.
the fumbles have been his biggest problem, along with the fact that the backups have been meaningfully worse than him. gray has 4 rushes for just 7 yards, tracy has 12 for 29.
those 19 runs are basically 1/3 of the runs singletary has (56), so as a team if singletary's performing middle of the pack then the team success is weighted down by that 1/3 that is way below average so far. plus the fumbles.
Browns. Prior the the last drive they were 27c/70y/2.5y. That would be through 58 minutes. Then the Dallas disaster.
I think it is a combination of personnel, scheme and commitment/philosophy.
Now Mike: Some discussion on that duo concept above in a thread. It does leave an unblocked LB that the RB has to read correctly.
I get that, but if you look at the plays our linemen just don't look athletic enough to pull that off. JMS in particular seems to struggle "crossing the face" of the DL
Something is very wrong the last two games.
Some of these "8 man fronts" are in response to offensive formations imv. Detroit faced these last night and they seem to handle it and have a effective PA game because of it.
I don't think BD is lying though frustrated with some deep misses.
and as is the case with jones the leaders of the organization are the ones who chose the players in the first place. so however much you fault any player for holding the organization back is it's still just as entirely the fault of the organization for choosing that player in the first place.
Again, I'm not taking NYG off the hook. They are certainly at fault for misjudging Jones pre-draft, and since he's been here with the doubling and tripling down.