Here is a table of Daniel Jones’ deep passing history by season based on Pro Football Reference definition of deep passes. A per game number is shown to the right of each table.
Also included are the same for 2024 of a sample quarterbacks. I picked the first three based on PFN’s ranking of quarterbacks from 2023 to week 4 this year. I picked the top, middle and bottom ranked quarterbacks. Then added in Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes as two who supposedly have strong arms.
Also included on the right is a list of the last six seasons of total attempted and completed deep passes across the league. Attempts per game, completions per game averages, as well as an average completion percentage on deep passes.
I just wanted to see the data and did not have an agenda in mind. Some things that stand out are
1. Jones had a good completion percentage on deep passes for his first four seasons.
2. After a big rookie season his deep attempts dropped off drastically.
3. His deep attempts are back up this year close to the league average.
4. Though his 30% completion percentage is low this year it compares not far off from Josh Allen (top QB by PFN) and Jared Goff (middle QB by PFN).
5. Even though Mahomes has a great completion percentage this year his attempts are way low and his interception percent is bad.
My gut takeaway is that it is still early this year. Jones is coming back from a serious injury and has only been playing 4 games in over a year. It is encouraging that more deep attempts are being made. This could be due to better O-Line protection and better receiving talent. Jones has played well against the Cowboys and Washington. I would not consider him the reason we lost those games. Sure he did not win those games either. The other two games not so but good enough to come out with a win in one of them. The fact that some deep misses were overthrows at least would tend to allay fears that his arm strength is shot. Keep taking those deep shots and lets go Giants!
Arm Strength - ( New Window )
It takes a lot to assess and evaluate a QB’s play. DJ is what he is - a bottom third starter IMO. He’s not a bum as some on this site paint him, he’s not a good QB who needs more support as others paint him - he’s just not good enough. I don’t need any more data points or isolated stats. His ceiling is mediocre and we know what his floor is. He’s been really bad at the deep shots this year too - not all incompletions are equal.
He definitely has missed a few (and way off). I don't think it is an arm strength issue but do think internal pressure and over thinking could be in play.
Jones has been short and wide on the deep throws . To be fair his wide receivers have been tits-on-the-bull worthless making adjustments to the throws. And, for the Hyatt worshippers , his best (only?) + route is the sideline squeeze . DeVito and Taylor are very good dropping that throw in . Jones is not.
What happened to Jones ? Hard to say exactly , but I just deal with the end product . He has lost arm strength . Maybe it’s from the serious neck injuries . That’s conjecture . And maybe Daboll’s route tree , coupled with some truly gruesome downfield wide receiver play, has contributed to this malaise .
The Giants aren’t good enough to methodically march down the field for three touchdowns and two field goals a game. They need explosive plays . They are not getting it in the running game, either by the backs or Jones . And the vertical passing game is claustrophobic . Robinson and Nabers will not hold up to the enormous payload of hits they are taking .
Jones has been short and wide on the deep throws . To be fair his wide receivers have been tits-on-the-bull worthless making adjustments to the throws. And, for the Hyatt worshippers , his best (only?) + route is the sideline squeeze . DeVito and Taylor are very good dropping that throw in . Jones is not.
What happened to Jones ? Hard to say exactly , but I just deal with the end product . He has lost arm strength . Maybe it’s from the serious neck injuries . That’s conjecture . And maybe Daboll’s route tree , coupled with some truly gruesome downfield wide receiver play, has contributed to this malaise .
The Giants aren’t good enough to methodically march down the field for three touchdowns and two field goals a game. They need explosive plays . They are not getting it in the running game, either by the backs or Jones . And the vertical passing game is claustrophobic . Robinson and Nabers will not hold up to the enormous payload of hits they are taking .
Depends on how you define good enough to have won. He had missed multiple throws in the Cleveland game that would've I've the win and he couldn't complete one of those critical throws. The defense had to save him. Dallas game was his daily. His receivers were wife open on multiple occasions, his OL was great at pass blocking. Yet he couldn't muster 21 points. Not sure how we simply want to give him credit.
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The QB play has been good enough for the Giants to have won 3 games . That doesn’t mean he’s played at a high level . It just means he hasn’t screwed up in a big way. The Giants have too many guys like that . But that concept is for another discussion.
Jones has been short and wide on the deep throws . To be fair his wide receivers have been tits-on-the-bull worthless making adjustments to the throws. And, for the Hyatt worshippers , his best (only?) + route is the sideline squeeze . DeVito and Taylor are very good dropping that throw in . Jones is not.
What happened to Jones ? Hard to say exactly , but I just deal with the end product . He has lost arm strength . Maybe it’s from the serious neck injuries . That’s conjecture . And maybe Daboll’s route tree , coupled with some truly gruesome downfield wide receiver play, has contributed to this malaise .
The Giants aren’t good enough to methodically march down the field for three touchdowns and two field goals a game. They need explosive plays . They are not getting it in the running game, either by the backs or Jones . And the vertical passing game is claustrophobic . Robinson and Nabers will not hold up to the enormous payload of hits they are taking .
Depends on how you define good enough to have won. He had missed multiple throws in the Cleveland game that would've I've the win and he couldn't complete one of those critical throws. The defense had to save him. Dallas game was his daily. His receivers were wife open on multiple occasions, his OL was great at pass blocking. Yet he couldn't muster 21 points. Not sure how we simply want to give him credit.
Holy shit.. sorry about the post. Typing on phone is crap today..
Jones isn’t just missing these, they are woefully short. That he’s been able to throw them in the past with some accuracy tells me there is either something physically wrong, or a problem with his mechanics. Given his neck injuries, I fear it may be the former.
One reception either way (more or less) changes the number by 6% because we're working with such little data, so an instance like the play where Malik Nabers had 10+ yards of separation and was standing still against the Cowboys brings Jones to 20% rather than 13.6%, that's a large difference when viewing by percentage only.
To date, Jones' success on 20+ plays have all been to Nabers and all on plays where he's facing the QB. Jones has yet to complete a pass where he's leading the WR in a true "deep pass" situation.
While there is some hope from the past that Jones can get it together and start hitting these, the reality is that he's left a TON of yards on the ball by just outright missing open WR's running down the field. There have been plays in every game he couldn't connect on that would have influenced the game.
One reception either way (more or less) changes the number by 6% because we're working with such little data, so an instance like the play where Malik Nabers had 10+ yards of separation and was standing still against the Cowboys brings Jones to 20% rather than 13.6%, that's a large difference when viewing by percentage only.
To date, Jones' success on 20+ plays have all been to Nabers and all on plays where he's facing the QB. Jones has yet to complete a pass where he's leading the WR in a true "deep pass" situation.
While there is some hope from the past that Jones can get it together and start hitting these, the reality is that he's left a TON of yards on the ball by just outright missing open WR's running down the field. There have been plays in every game he couldn't connect on that would have influenced the game.
* yards on the field, not ball.... sorry
I'm in the camp that the two neck injuries have sapped enough arm strength that Jones' throwing motion (especially on deeper throws) has changed and not for the better. He was always a marginal starter, at best middle of the pack.
He's no longer even that.
And don't forget the immediate jump to a slur! That was done really nicely.
More of what you would expect from that poser.
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but OP laid out his argument with facts and made some points worth thinking about. Many of the responses here were flat out rude and uncalled for.
And don't forget the immediate jump to a slur! That was done really nicely.
More of what you would expect from that poser.
Means justify ends, Jesus Christ is a slur as well. I won't apologize for taking necessary steps to call out adversaries of thoughtful discourse. Alternatively, we could continue to have banal threads about the 89 ways DJ is the sole reason why NY is 1-3.
Mike, we don't need to hear you say the same things 25 times a day, but I applaud your perseverance.
That being said, I thought this was an interesting and well-done post. Thank you for your time and effort
2- Nabers
2 - Slayton
1 - Bellinger
1 - Johnson
Looking forward to seeing how these numbers evolve. Hoping for more deep crossers and TE seams. Need to get the run game going because a lot of times these plays come off play action.
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In comment 16632371 Metnut said:
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but OP laid out his argument with facts and made some points worth thinking about. Many of the responses here were flat out rude and uncalled for.
And don't forget the immediate jump to a slur! That was done really nicely.
More of what you would expect from that poser.
Means justify ends, Jesus Christ is a slur as well. I won't apologize for taking necessary steps to call out adversaries of thoughtful discourse. Alternatively, we could continue to have banal threads about the 89 ways DJ is the sole reason why NY is 1-3.
Mike, we don't need to hear you say the same things 25 times a day, but I applaud your perseverance.
The ironic thing is that it's not posts like Rsjems that derail threads, it's the vitriolic replies like yours. If you had just ignored it and replied to the OP, Mike wouldn't have had anything to say.
DJ Deep passes - ( New Window )
Honestly it's a pretty sad collection of a 6th-year NFL QB's best career throws.
This seems like the correct stat
‘According to The 33rd Team’s stats, Jones is 2 of 13 for 67 yards and one interception on deep passes of 20+ attempted air yards, a -0.03 EPA, and a 16.5 passer rating.’
What standard was used for this “deep pass” numbers by the OP?
Lots of passes to Golden Tate, weird.
This seems like the correct stat
‘According to The 33rd Team’s stats, Jones is 2 of 13 for 67 yards and one interception on deep passes of 20+ attempted air yards, a -0.03 EPA, and a 16.5 passer rating.’
What standard was used for this “deep pass” numbers by the OP?
deep passes arer defined as 15 yards or more.
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On Jones deep passes
This seems like the correct stat
‘According to The 33rd Team’s stats, Jones is 2 of 13 for 67 yards and one interception on deep passes of 20+ attempted air yards, a -0.03 EPA, and a 16.5 passer rating.’
What standard was used for this “deep pass” numbers by the OP?
deep passes arer defined as 15 yards or more.
Is that air yards or does it include YAC?
STOP IT! Enough of these analyses. The Giants have no future with Jones. We fans need no analysis by anyone, including you, to explain Johns' performance.
HE STINKS! Move on. Pray God the Giants draft a franchise QB in '25.
Jones is middle of the pack in the NFL in total pass yards (14th, 881 yards). And he's also middle of the pack (15th, 416) in completed air yards.
I'm a founding member of the DJHC, but he's having a better season passing the ball than most fans are giving him credit for and it's not a performance close to getting him benched.
The Giants problem is primarily the amount of drops they've had and the amount of poor deep throws Jones has made. But this isn't tragedy level quarterback play.
Jones is middle of the pack in the NFL in total pass yards (14th, 881 yards). And he's also middle of the pack (15th, 416) in completed air yards.
I'm a founding member of the DJHC, but he's having a better season passing the ball than most fans are giving him credit for and it's not a performance close to getting him benched.
The Giants problem is primarily the amount of drops they've had and the amount of poor deep throws Jones has made. But this isn't tragedy level quarterback play.
this is exactly how i see it, only thing id add is that the trend has been up each week with the exception of the missed deep balls vs dallas which were glaring.
the inconsistent running game (and fumbles) have also made them one dimensional and put more pressure on the passing game.
that they are 1-3 despite jones playing good on his scale is not a particularly good endorsement of anything except regime change.
it used to happen all the time until the last several months. when his contrarian instincts push away from conventional wisdom it's occasionally into the arms of my charts and graphs.
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In comment 16632787 HardTruth said:
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On Jones deep passes
This seems like the correct stat
‘According to The 33rd Team’s stats, Jones is 2 of 13 for 67 yards and one interception on deep passes of 20+ attempted air yards, a -0.03 EPA, and a 16.5 passer rating.’
What standard was used for this “deep pass” numbers by the OP?
deep passes arer defined as 15 yards or more.
Is that air yards or does it include YAC?
the definition of a "Deep" pass is 15+ air yards.
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In comment 16632804 gogiants said:
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In comment 16632787 HardTruth said:
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On Jones deep passes
This seems like the correct stat
‘According to The 33rd Team’s stats, Jones is 2 of 13 for 67 yards and one interception on deep passes of 20+ attempted air yards, a -0.03 EPA, and a 16.5 passer rating.’
What standard was used for this “deep pass” numbers by the OP?
deep passes arer defined as 15 yards or more.
Is that air yards or does it include YAC?
the definition of a "Deep" pass is 15+ air yards.
if you run the query the deep pass is defined as 15+ air yards. In the details section on the plays they show the total yards gained on the play
https://stathead.com/tiny/xAUhl - ( New Window )
I take no pride in saying this - but I feel very confident that a number of BBIers could have made a better throw to Darius Slayton on the offsides/blown play from last week than Daniel Jones did.
That the head coach, GM, and owner don't view that as a five alarm fire continues to be mind boggling, week in and week out.
neck injury, hearing footsteps, got worse against the pass rush, has the yips, who fucking cares?
the guy can only complete short passes.
that's a big fucking problem!
Beginning in 2006, the NFL classified every pass attempt as either 'short' or 'deep,' where deep means anything past 15 yards. About 19% of pass attempts are classified as deep
🙃
Consider this scenario, assuming everything else stayed the same except:
- If we had an average kicker, like every other team, in the Commanders game, we would’ve won.
- If we had just an average running game in the Cowboys game—not the worst in the league—we would’ve won.
That would put us at 3-1 with the same QB play. No miracles from a kicker or an unstoppable running game needed. Wouldn’t the narrative around Jones be much different then? But his peromance were the same in both scenarios.
In comment 16632852 Eric on Li said:
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Its most certainly something the Giants are considering as they evaluate his play.
Jones is middle of the pack in the NFL in total pass yards (14th, 881 yards). And he's also middle of the pack (15th, 416) in completed air yards.
I'm a founding member of the DJHC, but he's having a better season passing the ball than most fans are giving him credit for and it's not a performance close to getting him benched.
The Giants problem is primarily the amount of drops they've had and the amount of poor deep throws Jones has made. But this isn't tragedy level quarterback play.
this is exactly how i see it, only thing id add is that the trend has been up each week with the exception of the missed deep balls vs dallas which were glaring.
the inconsistent running game (and fumbles) have also made them one dimensional and put more pressure on the passing game.
that they are 1-3 despite jones playing good on his scale is not a particularly good endorsement of anything except regime change.
And why 15 yards?
Because the standard has basically been 20+ yards and Jones is 2 for 14 with an INT on those
Is it just that by redefining it to 15 yds that Jones appears to be better at it?
Because as much as you want to spin this 15 yd stat into a “deep pass”, the fact is at 20+ yards his numbers are atrocious
Here is a simple Google query on it
People also ask
What does the NFL consider a deep pass?
Short: Throws where the target depth was between 0 and 9 yards.
Intermediate: Throws where the target depth was between 10 and 19 yards.
Deep: Throws where the target depth was at least 20 yards.
But Jones is not good at all at the 20 yd pass
Well guess what the “red zone” is ? 20 yds
So Jones cant connect on a pass from outside the red zone, over 20 yards
And once we get in the red zone, he can throw the ball 0-15 yds alright but now the field has shrunk and the defenders arent spread out as much so he has 21 guys in front of him occupying that very small under 20 yard zone
This makes it immeasurably more difficult to complete the same pass
Hence Jones career long struggle with TD passes
20 of his 20 completions were 6 yds or less in the air
Of his 40 passes, ZERO were actually in the end zone
Consider this scenario, assuming everything else stayed the same except:
- If we had an average kicker, like every other team, in the Commanders game, we would’ve won.
- If we had just an average running game in the Cowboys game—not the worst in the league—we would’ve won.
That would put us at 3-1 with the same QB play. No miracles from a kicker or an unstoppable running game needed. Wouldn’t the narrative around Jones be much different then? But his peromance were the same in both scenarios.
In comment 16632852 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16632847 christian said:
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Its most certainly something the Giants are considering as they evaluate his play.
Jones is middle of the pack in the NFL in total pass yards (14th, 881 yards). And he's also middle of the pack (15th, 416) in completed air yards.
I'm a founding member of the DJHC, but he's having a better season passing the ball than most fans are giving him credit for and it's not a performance close to getting him benched.
The Giants problem is primarily the amount of drops they've had and the amount of poor deep throws Jones has made. But this isn't tragedy level quarterback play.
this is exactly how i see it, only thing id add is that the trend has been up each week with the exception of the missed deep balls vs dallas which were glaring.
the inconsistent running game (and fumbles) have also made them one dimensional and put more pressure on the passing game.
that they are 1-3 despite jones playing good on his scale is not a particularly good endorsement of anything except regime change.
id even leave cowboys game out of it and just take the win vs commanders with a breathing kicker - then both they are 2-2 like every NFCE team and while the season isn't off to a rollicking start, they are in the mix instead of desperately needing a win @ Seattle.
and that's despite the 3rd/4th down drops end of game in WAS/DAL, the missed deep shots, inconsistent running game, defense being sloppy, total no show vs Min etc. They'd be a 2-2 team with lots of ways to improve over the season if they just clean up their own house.
Jones has been short and wide on the deep throws . To be fair his wide receivers have been tits-on-the-bull worthless making adjustments to the throws. And, for the Hyatt worshippers , his best (only?) + route is the sideline squeeze . DeVito and Taylor are very good dropping that throw in . Jones is not.
What happened to Jones ? Hard to say exactly , but I just deal with the end product . He has lost arm strength . Maybe it’s from the serious neck injuries . That’s conjecture . And maybe Daboll’s route tree , coupled with some truly gruesome downfield wide receiver play, has contributed to this malaise .
The Giants aren’t good enough to methodically march down the field for three touchdowns and two field goals a game. They need explosive plays . They are not getting it in the running game, either by the backs or Jones . And the vertical passing game is claustrophobic . Robinson and Nabers will not hold up to the enormous payload of hits they are taking .
You need to post more (again). Thanks.
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In comment 16632308 rsjem1979 said:
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Fuck off retard. This is an interesting and well made thread.say something constructive before millering this thread. Clown.
Feel better?
See above. You need to post less.
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Fuck off retard. This is an interesting and well made thread.say something constructive before millering this thread. Clown.
Is this real? How much did you drink?
Jones and Slayton as seen in some of the best of these have had such perfect timing and were in sync. The fact that he is not as in sync with Slayton anymore lends me to believe he has been affected by injury.