Here is a table of Daniel Jones’ deep passing history by season based on Pro Football Reference definition of deep passes. A per game number is shown to the right of each table.
Also included are the same for 2024 of a sample quarterbacks. I picked the first three based on PFN’s ranking of quarterbacks from 2023 to week 4 this year. I picked the top, middle and bottom ranked quarterbacks. Then added in Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes as two who supposedly have strong arms.
Also included on the right is a list of the last six seasons of total attempted and completed deep passes across the league. Attempts per game, completions per game averages, as well as an average completion percentage on deep passes.
I just wanted to see the data and did not have an agenda in mind. Some things that stand out are
1. Jones had a good completion percentage on deep passes for his first four seasons.
2. After a big rookie season his deep attempts dropped off drastically.
3. His deep attempts are back up this year close to the league average.
4. Though his 30% completion percentage is low this year it compares not far off from Josh Allen (top QB by PFN) and Jared Goff (middle QB by PFN).
5. Even though Mahomes has a great completion percentage this year his attempts are way low and his interception percent is bad.
My gut takeaway is that it is still early this year. Jones is coming back from a serious injury and has only been playing 4 games in over a year. It is encouraging that more deep attempts are being made. This could be due to better O-Line protection and better receiving talent. Jones has played well against the Cowboys and Washington. I would not consider him the reason we lost those games. Sure he did not win those games either. The other two games not so but good enough to come out with a win in one of them. The fact that some deep misses were overthrows at least would tend to allay fears that his arm strength is shot. Keep taking those deep shots and lets go Giants!
Fuck off retard. This is an interesting and well made thread.say something constructive before millering this thread. Clown.
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Fuck off retard. This is an interesting and well made thread.say something constructive before millering this thread. Clown.
That escalated quickly lol.
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Fuck off retard. This is an interesting and well made thread.say something constructive before millering this thread. Clown.
Feel better?
Thanks. Yes I would update per quarter and share.
There are also the issues concerning the timing of his throws, where he puts the ball and what he sees, or doesn't see, on the field which would not necessarily be reflected in the numbers. For example, if there is a play to be made and he checks down, that is not a long pass but it is a missed opportunity.
Good work and thanks again.
I did not find on the site a definition. However in the data the yards gained went only as low as 16 yards. maybe they have a definition somewhere and it is not dependent on yards gained with the problem of yac. But it looks like it is at least 16 yards.
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how was it defined?
I did not find on the site a definition. However in the data the yards gained went only as low as 16 yards. maybe they have a definition somewhere and it is not dependent on yards gained with the problem of yac. But it looks like it is at least 16 yards.
Targets - pass targets, as given in the play-by-play account of the game. Note that pass locations are defined as long (15 or more yards) or short (less than 15 yards
Link - ( New Window )
I don't recall that at all. I don't even see how that's possible.
I don't recall that at all. I don't even see how that's possible.
No, that's not what it says simply put because Shurmur was the head coach in 2019, Judge was the HC in 2020
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...Does this say that in Joe Judge's first year, with Jason Garret as OC, Jones threw more deep passes (37) with a higher completion % (56.9%) than any other year, and no INTs on deep passes that year?
I don't recall that at all. I don't even see how that's possible.
No, that's not what it says simply put because Shurmur was the head coach in 2019, Judge was the HC in 2020
Look at the data under "2020" and tell me what it says
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In comment 16632386 sb from NYT Forum said:
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...Does this say that in Joe Judge's first year, with Jason Garret as OC, Jones threw more deep passes (37) with a higher completion % (56.9%) than any other year, and no INTs on deep passes that year?
I don't recall that at all. I don't even see how that's possible.
No, that's not what it says simply put because Shurmur was the head coach in 2019, Judge was the HC in 2020
Look at the data under "2020" and tell me what it says
I believe that shows he threw more in 2019 and completed more in 2020 for a higher %
So I think the underlying data and whatever PFF is calling a "deep pass" is suspect.
Arm Strength - ( New Window )
It takes a lot to assess and evaluate a QB’s play. DJ is what he is - a bottom third starter IMO. He’s not a bum as some on this site paint him, he’s not a good QB who needs more support as others paint him - he’s just not good enough. I don’t need any more data points or isolated stats. His ceiling is mediocre and we know what his floor is. He’s been really bad at the deep shots this year too - not all incompletions are equal.
He definitely has missed a few (and way off). I don't think it is an arm strength issue but do think internal pressure and over thinking could be in play.
Jones has been short and wide on the deep throws . To be fair his wide receivers have been tits-on-the-bull worthless making adjustments to the throws. And, for the Hyatt worshippers , his best (only?) + route is the sideline squeeze . DeVito and Taylor are very good dropping that throw in . Jones is not.
What happened to Jones ? Hard to say exactly , but I just deal with the end product . He has lost arm strength . Maybe it’s from the serious neck injuries . That’s conjecture . And maybe Daboll’s route tree , coupled with some truly gruesome downfield wide receiver play, has contributed to this malaise .
The Giants aren’t good enough to methodically march down the field for three touchdowns and two field goals a game. They need explosive plays . They are not getting it in the running game, either by the backs or Jones . And the vertical passing game is claustrophobic . Robinson and Nabers will not hold up to the enormous payload of hits they are taking .
Jones has been short and wide on the deep throws . To be fair his wide receivers have been tits-on-the-bull worthless making adjustments to the throws. And, for the Hyatt worshippers , his best (only?) + route is the sideline squeeze . DeVito and Taylor are very good dropping that throw in . Jones is not.
What happened to Jones ? Hard to say exactly , but I just deal with the end product . He has lost arm strength . Maybe it’s from the serious neck injuries . That’s conjecture . And maybe Daboll’s route tree , coupled with some truly gruesome downfield wide receiver play, has contributed to this malaise .
The Giants aren’t good enough to methodically march down the field for three touchdowns and two field goals a game. They need explosive plays . They are not getting it in the running game, either by the backs or Jones . And the vertical passing game is claustrophobic . Robinson and Nabers will not hold up to the enormous payload of hits they are taking .
Depends on how you define good enough to have won. He had missed multiple throws in the Cleveland game that would've I've the win and he couldn't complete one of those critical throws. The defense had to save him. Dallas game was his daily. His receivers were wife open on multiple occasions, his OL was great at pass blocking. Yet he couldn't muster 21 points. Not sure how we simply want to give him credit.
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The QB play has been good enough for the Giants to have won 3 games . That doesn’t mean he’s played at a high level . It just means he hasn’t screwed up in a big way. The Giants have too many guys like that . But that concept is for another discussion.
Jones has been short and wide on the deep throws . To be fair his wide receivers have been tits-on-the-bull worthless making adjustments to the throws. And, for the Hyatt worshippers , his best (only?) + route is the sideline squeeze . DeVito and Taylor are very good dropping that throw in . Jones is not.
What happened to Jones ? Hard to say exactly , but I just deal with the end product . He has lost arm strength . Maybe it’s from the serious neck injuries . That’s conjecture . And maybe Daboll’s route tree , coupled with some truly gruesome downfield wide receiver play, has contributed to this malaise .
The Giants aren’t good enough to methodically march down the field for three touchdowns and two field goals a game. They need explosive plays . They are not getting it in the running game, either by the backs or Jones . And the vertical passing game is claustrophobic . Robinson and Nabers will not hold up to the enormous payload of hits they are taking .
Depends on how you define good enough to have won. He had missed multiple throws in the Cleveland game that would've I've the win and he couldn't complete one of those critical throws. The defense had to save him. Dallas game was his daily. His receivers were wife open on multiple occasions, his OL was great at pass blocking. Yet he couldn't muster 21 points. Not sure how we simply want to give him credit.
Holy shit.. sorry about the post. Typing on phone is crap today..
Jones isn’t just missing these, they are woefully short. That he’s been able to throw them in the past with some accuracy tells me there is either something physically wrong, or a problem with his mechanics. Given his neck injuries, I fear it may be the former.
One reception either way (more or less) changes the number by 6% because we're working with such little data, so an instance like the play where Malik Nabers had 10+ yards of separation and was standing still against the Cowboys brings Jones to 20% rather than 13.6%, that's a large difference when viewing by percentage only.
To date, Jones' success on 20+ plays have all been to Nabers and all on plays where he's facing the QB. Jones has yet to complete a pass where he's leading the WR in a true "deep pass" situation.
While there is some hope from the past that Jones can get it together and start hitting these, the reality is that he's left a TON of yards on the ball by just outright missing open WR's running down the field. There have been plays in every game he couldn't connect on that would have influenced the game.
One reception either way (more or less) changes the number by 6% because we're working with such little data, so an instance like the play where Malik Nabers had 10+ yards of separation and was standing still against the Cowboys brings Jones to 20% rather than 13.6%, that's a large difference when viewing by percentage only.
To date, Jones' success on 20+ plays have all been to Nabers and all on plays where he's facing the QB. Jones has yet to complete a pass where he's leading the WR in a true "deep pass" situation.
While there is some hope from the past that Jones can get it together and start hitting these, the reality is that he's left a TON of yards on the ball by just outright missing open WR's running down the field. There have been plays in every game he couldn't connect on that would have influenced the game.
* yards on the field, not ball.... sorry
I'm in the camp that the two neck injuries have sapped enough arm strength that Jones' throwing motion (especially on deeper throws) has changed and not for the better. He was always a marginal starter, at best middle of the pack.
He's no longer even that.
And don't forget the immediate jump to a slur! That was done really nicely.
More of what you would expect from that poser.
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but OP laid out his argument with facts and made some points worth thinking about. Many of the responses here were flat out rude and uncalled for.
And don't forget the immediate jump to a slur! That was done really nicely.
More of what you would expect from that poser.
Means justify ends, Jesus Christ is a slur as well. I won't apologize for taking necessary steps to call out adversaries of thoughtful discourse. Alternatively, we could continue to have banal threads about the 89 ways DJ is the sole reason why NY is 1-3.
Mike, we don't need to hear you say the same things 25 times a day, but I applaud your perseverance.
That being said, I thought this was an interesting and well-done post. Thank you for your time and effort
2- Nabers
2 - Slayton
1 - Bellinger
1 - Johnson
Looking forward to seeing how these numbers evolve. Hoping for more deep crossers and TE seams. Need to get the run game going because a lot of times these plays come off play action.
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In comment 16632371 Metnut said:
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but OP laid out his argument with facts and made some points worth thinking about. Many of the responses here were flat out rude and uncalled for.
And don't forget the immediate jump to a slur! That was done really nicely.
More of what you would expect from that poser.
Means justify ends, Jesus Christ is a slur as well. I won't apologize for taking necessary steps to call out adversaries of thoughtful discourse. Alternatively, we could continue to have banal threads about the 89 ways DJ is the sole reason why NY is 1-3.
Mike, we don't need to hear you say the same things 25 times a day, but I applaud your perseverance.
The ironic thing is that it's not posts like Rsjems that derail threads, it's the vitriolic replies like yours. If you had just ignored it and replied to the OP, Mike wouldn't have had anything to say.
DJ Deep passes - ( New Window )
Honestly it's a pretty sad collection of a 6th-year NFL QB's best career throws.
This seems like the correct stat
‘According to The 33rd Team’s stats, Jones is 2 of 13 for 67 yards and one interception on deep passes of 20+ attempted air yards, a -0.03 EPA, and a 16.5 passer rating.’
What standard was used for this “deep pass” numbers by the OP?
Lots of passes to Golden Tate, weird.
This seems like the correct stat
‘According to The 33rd Team’s stats, Jones is 2 of 13 for 67 yards and one interception on deep passes of 20+ attempted air yards, a -0.03 EPA, and a 16.5 passer rating.’
What standard was used for this “deep pass” numbers by the OP?
deep passes arer defined as 15 yards or more.
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On Jones deep passes
This seems like the correct stat
‘According to The 33rd Team’s stats, Jones is 2 of 13 for 67 yards and one interception on deep passes of 20+ attempted air yards, a -0.03 EPA, and a 16.5 passer rating.’
What standard was used for this “deep pass” numbers by the OP?
deep passes arer defined as 15 yards or more.
Is that air yards or does it include YAC?
STOP IT! Enough of these analyses. The Giants have no future with Jones. We fans need no analysis by anyone, including you, to explain Johns' performance.
HE STINKS! Move on. Pray God the Giants draft a franchise QB in '25.
Jones is middle of the pack in the NFL in total pass yards (14th, 881 yards). And he's also middle of the pack (15th, 416) in completed air yards.
I'm a founding member of the DJHC, but he's having a better season passing the ball than most fans are giving him credit for and it's not a performance close to getting him benched.
The Giants problem is primarily the amount of drops they've had and the amount of poor deep throws Jones has made. But this isn't tragedy level quarterback play.
Jones is middle of the pack in the NFL in total pass yards (14th, 881 yards). And he's also middle of the pack (15th, 416) in completed air yards.
I'm a founding member of the DJHC, but he's having a better season passing the ball than most fans are giving him credit for and it's not a performance close to getting him benched.
The Giants problem is primarily the amount of drops they've had and the amount of poor deep throws Jones has made. But this isn't tragedy level quarterback play.
this is exactly how i see it, only thing id add is that the trend has been up each week with the exception of the missed deep balls vs dallas which were glaring.
the inconsistent running game (and fumbles) have also made them one dimensional and put more pressure on the passing game.
that they are 1-3 despite jones playing good on his scale is not a particularly good endorsement of anything except regime change.